2024-12-26 06:55

10-year Treasury yield touches highest level in 8 months Weekly jobless claims dip to lowest in a month Bitcoin slides NEW YORK, Dec 26 (Reuters) - Wall Street closed mixed on Thursday and the U.S. benchmark Treasury yield eased after scaling the highest level since May in light, directionless post-Christmas trading. The dollar was flat, crude oil fell, and gold rose. The three U.S. stock indexes were all nearly unchanged, paring mild early declines and interrupting what looked early this week like a nascent "Santa Claus rally," in which shares get a seasonal boost from low liquidity, tax-loss harvesting and investment of year-end bonuses. With only a handful of trading days remaining in the year, the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and the Dow have scored respective gains of 33%, 26% and 14% in 2024. The major concerns for 2025 are the extent of the Fed's monetary easing, Trump's tariffs and other policies, and various geopolitical tensions. New U.S. claims for unemployment benefits dipped to the lowest in a month last week, consistent with a cooling but still-healthy U.S. labor market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) , opens new tab edged up 0.07% to 43,325.80, the S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab fell 0.04% to 6,037.59 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) , opens new tab fell 0.05% to 20,020.357. "It's light volume and now we are recovering some earlier losses due to some profit taking from Tuesday's rally," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York. "I think we're in the Santa Claus rally, with a little bit of a bump in the road here today, and it's probably safe to say the year-end rally will continue." MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) , opens new tab rose 0.06%, appearing on course to wrap up the year with a second consecutive annual gain of more than 17%, unfazed by escalating geopolitical tensions and economic headwinds. Japan's Nikkei (.N225) , opens new tab rose 1.12%. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) , opens new tab closed 0.14% lower but remained on track for a weekly gain. European markets were closed for a second straight day on Thursday while London traders got Boxing Day off. The Federal Reserve's less dovish messaging about lowering rates further next year, weighed on Treasuries and helped elevate the 10-year yield to its highest since early May. It peaked at 4.641, gaining steadily from around 4.10% early this month. "We're probably on the way to 4.75% to 5.0% on the 10-year note and the reason for that is that the bond market is full of uncertainties, while the stock market is full of enthusiasm," Cardillo said. "The bond market is projecting a hawkish Fed going into probably the first half of the year." Strong interest in a Treasury auction of seven-year notes spilled over in the afternoon, nudging the benchmark yield back down to 4.581%, down 0.6 basis point from late Tuesday. The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was flat at 4.33%. Likewise the dollar index , a basket of six currencies heavily weighted by the euro and yen, loosely tracked bond yields to stand unchanged late Thursday. The euro went up 0.15% to $1.042 and dollar/yen was up 0.38% at 158.00, having hit the highest since mid July at 158.08. Oil gave up earlier gains due to China stimulus hopes and an industry report showing lower U.S. inventories. U.S. crude fell 0.7% to $69.61 a barrel and Brent fell to $73.22 per barrel, down 0.49% on the day. Gold advanced on safe-haven demand as investors awaited further signals on the U.S. economy's health. Spot gold rose 0.79% to $2,633.77 an ounce. U.S. gold futures rose 0.3% to $2,627.90 an ounce. In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin fell 3.14% to $95,334.00. Ethereum declined 4.42% to $3,311.70. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/global-markets-wrapup-1-2024-12-26/

2024-12-26 05:32

MUMBAI, Dec 26 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee hit a lifetime low for the seventh straight session on Thursday, adding to its losses in the current quarter on the back of a combination of a wider trade deficit and anaemic capital flows. The rupee dropped to an all-time low of 85.2525 per U.S dollar, tracking a decline in most of its Asian peers. It has lost 1.74% since the beginning of October and is headed for its worst quarterly performance since July-September 2022. India's changing balance of payments (BoP) picture as well as the run-up in the dollar and U.S. yields since Donald Trump's U.S. election victory have undermined the South Asian currency. India's trade deficit has widened by 18.4% year-on-year from April to November, per IDFC First Bank's calculations. Meanwhile, outflows from equity and debt are tracking $10.3 billion this quarter, reversing from inflows of $20 billion in the previous quarter, per NSDL data. That combination, according to economists, has resulted in a BoP deficit in the current quarter. The BoP is estimated to be $20 billion to $30 billion this fiscal year, compared to a surplus of over $60 billion in the previous fiscal. The BoP outflows, coupled with a strong dollar, will keep the rupee under pressure, IDFC said, forecasting that the currency will weaken to 86 by September 2025. DOLLAR IN DEMAND The dollar's rally in the wake of Trump's election win is adding to the rupee's headwinds. The dollar index is hovering near year-to-date highs on expectations that the U.S. President-elect's policies will lift growth and inflation. The prospects of higher inflation prompted Federal Reserve officials, earlier this month, to project fewer rate cuts next year. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/indian-rupee-drops-all-time-low-against-us-dollar-2024-12-26/

2024-12-26 05:23

Biden calls for more weapons to Ukraine after Russia's Christmas attack Bullion has risen by 28% so far in 2024 Next year is going to be very volatile for gold - analyst Dec 26 (Reuters) - Gold prices rose on Thursday, driven by safe-haven demand in light trading after the Christmas holiday, as markets awaited signals on the U.S. economy under the incoming Trump administration and the Federal Reserve's interest rate strategy for 2025. Spot gold rose 0.9% to $2,635.29 per ounce, as of 01:47 p.m. ET (1847 GMT). U.S. gold futures settled 0.7% higher at $2,653.90. "Some of gold's gains had to do with what's going on in Ukraine with Russia hitting Ukraine's electrical system," said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. President Joe Biden said on Wednesday he asked the U.S. Defense Department to continue its surge of weapons deliveries to Ukraine after condemning Russia's Christmas Day attack against some of Ukraine's cities and its energy system. "Gold will still be purchased by central banks, and as inflation continues, you may see increased demand for gold on the retail side as well," Pavilonis said, adding that prices are expected to break $3,000 next year. Gold is considered a hedge against geopolitical turmoil and inflation, but higher rates reduce the appeal of holding the non-yielding asset. The yellow metal has gained 28% so far this year and scored an all-time peak of $2,790.15 on Oct. 31. Next year will be very volatile for bullion, with first-half gains on heightened geopolitical tensions and profit-taking in the second half, said Ajay Kedia, director at Kedia Commodities, Mumbai. As Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House in January, markets will be closely monitoring U.S. economic data to gauge how the Fed will navigate inflationary pressures anticipated from his administration's policies, including tariffs, deregulation and tax reforms. After aggressively cutting rates in September and November, the Fed persisted with easing in December but hinted at fewer reductions in 2025. Spot silver rose 0.4% to $29.72 per ounce, platinum fell 0.9% to $935.25 and palladium shed 3% to $925.08. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/gold-gains-weak-dollar-geopolitical-turmoil-fed-trumps-2025-policies-focus-2024-12-26/

2024-12-26 05:02

BEIJING, Dec 26 (Reuters) - China has approved the construction of what will be the world's largest hydropower dam, kicking off an ambitious project on the eastern rim of the Tibetan plateau that could affect millions downstream in India and Bangladesh. The dam, which will be located in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River, could produce 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually, according to an estimate provided by the Power Construction Corp of China in 2020. That would more than triple the 88.2 billion kWh designed capacity of the Three Gorges Dam, currently the world's largest, in central China. The project will play a major role in meeting China's carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, stimulate related industries such as engineering, and create jobs in Tibet, the official Xinhua news agency reported on Wednesday. A section of the Yarlung Zangbo falls a dramatic 2,000 metres (6,561 feet) within a short span of 50 km (31 miles), offering huge hydropower potential as well as unique engineering challenges. The outlay for building the dam, including engineering costs, is also expected to eclipse the Three Gorges dam, which cost 254.2 billion yuan($34.83 billion). This included the resettling of the 1.4 million people it displaced and was more than four times the initial estimate of 57 billion yuan. Authorities have not indicated how many people the Tibet project would displace and how it would affect the local ecosystem, one of the richest and most diverse on the plateau. But according to Chinese officials, hydropower projects in Tibet, which they say hold more than a third of China's hydroelectric power potential, would not have a major impact on the environment or on downstream water supplies India and Bangladesh have nevertheless raised concerns about the dam, with the project potentially altering not only the local ecology but also the flow and course of the river downstream. The Yarlung Zangbo becomes the Brahmaputra river as it leaves Tibet and flows south into India's Arunachal Pradesh and Assam states and finally into Bangladesh. China has already commenced hydropower generation on the upper reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo, which flows from the west to the east of Tibet. It is planning more projects upstream. ($1 = 7.2989 Chinese yuan renminbi) Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-build-worlds-largest-hydropower-dam-tibet-2024-12-26/

2024-12-26 02:50

SYDNEY, Dec 26 (Reuters) - Favourites Master Lock Comanche and LawConnect took the early lead in the 79th running of the Sydney to Hobart yacht race on Thursday, as the supermaxis led the 104 boats out into the South Pacific. LawConnect, which won line honours last year in a thrilling finish by just 51 seconds, was first past the turning mark after cannons sounded at 1 p.m. (0200 GMT). However, it soon ran into some sail issues, giving race record holder Master Lock Comanche an unexpected advantage. Wild Thing 100, another supermaxi, almost capsized after making a late tack to avoid the smaller Celestial V70. Covering approximately 630 nautical miles of the Tasman Sea and notoriously treacherous Bass Strait, the gruelling annual race is Australia's premier yachting event. Forecasts were for a fast start in north-easterly winds of up to 20 knots before a trough strikes in the early hours of Friday, bringing strong-to-gale-force, south-westerly winds. The friendly weather conditions could bring the race record - set by LDV Comanche in 2017 - of one day, nine hours, 15 minutes and 24 seconds in sight. Sailors will be keen to avoid inclement weather when they cross the Bass Strait as they head across from the mainland towards the island state of Tasmania. Five yachts were sunk and six sailors killed when a major storm hit the fleet during the 1998 race. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/sports/master-lock-comanche-leads-way-sydney-hobart-race-gets-underway-2024-12-26/

2024-12-26 00:34

Finland suspects ship of breaching power, telecom cables Coast Guard boards ship, takes it to Finnish waters Finland says vessel belongs to Russian shadow fleet Tanker is registered in Cook Islands HELSINKI, Dec 26 (Reuters) - Finnish authorities on Thursday seized a ship carrying Russian oil in the Baltic Sea on suspicion it caused the outage of an undersea power cable connecting Finland and Estonia a day earlier, and that it also damaged or broke four internet lines. The Cook Islands-registered ship, named by authorities as the Eagle S, was boarded by a Finnish coast guard crew that took command and sailed the vessel to Finnish waters, a coast guard official said at a press conference. "From our side we are investigating grave sabotage," said Robin Lardot, director of the Finnish National Bureau of Investigation. "According to our understanding, an anchor of the vessel that is under investigation has caused the damage," he added. The Finnish customs service said it had seized the vessel's cargo and that the Eagle S was believed to belong to Russia's so-called shadow fleet of ageing tankers that seek to evade sanctions on the sale of Russian oil. Two fibre-optic cables owned by Finnish operator Elisa linking Finland and Estonia were broken, while a third link between the two countries owned by China's Citic was damaged, Finnish transport and communications agency Traficom said. A fourth internet cable running between Finland and Germany and belonging to Finnish group Cinia was also believed to have been severed, the agency said. "We are coordinating closely with our allies and stand ready to support their investigations," said a spokesperson for the U.S. National Security Council, adding that the incident underscored the need for closer international cooperation on safeguarding critical undersea infrastructure. "We are following investigations by Estonia and Finland, and we stand ready to provide further support," NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said in a post on social media X. Both the Finnish and Estonian governments held extraordinary meetings on Thursday to assess the situation, they said in separate statements. Baltic Sea nations are on high alert for potential acts of sabotage following a string of outages of power cables, telecom links and gas pipelines since 2022, although subsea equipment is also subject to technical malfunction and accidents. The European Union said it strongly condemned any deliberate destruction of the continent's infrastructure. "We commend the Finnish authorities for their swift action in boarding the suspected vessel," said a joint statement from EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas and the European Commission, the bloc's executive body. Repairing the 170-km (106-mile) Estlink 2 interconnector will take months, and the outage raised the risk of a strained power supply during the winter, operator Fingrid said in a statement. Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal said, however, that his country would continue to have sufficient access to electricity. The Eagle S Panamax oil tanker crossed the Estlink 2 electricity cable at 1026 GMT on Wednesday, a Reuters review of MarineTraffic ship tracking data showed, identical to the time when Fingrid said the power outage occurred. United Arab Emirates-based Caravella LLCFZ, which according to MarineTraffic data owns the Eagle S, did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Peninsular Maritime, which, according to MarineTraffic acts as a technical manager for the ship, declined to comment outside of the company's opening hours. 'DISRUPT AND DETER' Damage to subsea installations in the Baltic Sea has now become so frequent that it is difficult to believe this was caused merely by accident or poor seamanship, Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said in a statement. "We must understand that damage to submarine infrastructure has become more systematic and thus must be regarded as attacks against our vital structures," Tsahkna said. The 658 megawatt (MW) Estlink 2 outage began at midday local time on Wednesday, leaving only the 358 MW Estlink 1 in operation between the two countries, operator Fingrid said. Twelve Western countries on Dec. 16 said they had agreed on measures to "disrupt and deter" Russia's so-called shadow fleet of vessels in order to prevent sanctions breaches and increase the cost to Moscow of the war in Ukraine. "We must be able to prevent the risks posed by ships belonging to the Russian shadow fleet," Finnish President Alexander Stubb said in a post on social media X on Thursday. Lithuanian foreign minister Kestutis Budrys said the growing number of Baltic Sea incidents should serve as a stark and urgent warning to NATO and the European Union to significantly enhance the protection of undersea infrastructure there. Police in Sweden are leading an investigation into the breach last month of two Baltic Sea telecom cables, an incident German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said he assumed was caused by sabotage. Separately, Finnish and Estonian police continue to investigate damage caused last year to the Balticconnector gas pipeline linking Finland and Estonia, as well as several telecom cables, and have said this was likely caused by a ship dragging its anchor. In 2022 the Russia-to-Germany Nord Stream gas pipelines running along the seabed in the same waters were blown up, in a case still under investigation by Germany. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/finland-police-investigate-role-foreign-ship-after-power-cable-outage-2024-12-26/