2024-12-23 03:53

JAKARTA, Dec 23 (Reuters) - Indonesia's investment ministry said several Chinese companies have expressed commitments to invest a total of $7.46 billion in new projects including factories producing silicon products and fiberglass. The ministry issued the statement late on Sunday, after Investment Minister Rosan Roeslani's visit to the Chinese cities of Hangzhou, Quzhou and Beijing between Dec. 18 and 20. The commitments include a plan by Hongshi Holding Group to build an industrial estate to produce silicon, polysilicon, as well as batteries and components, including a 2-gigawatt power plant to drive the park, worth $5 billion, the ministry said. China Jushi Co (600176.SS) , opens new tab, a unit of Zhenshi Holding Group, plans a $1 billion investment in the fiberglass industry, it said. Wankai New Materials (301216.SZ) , opens new tab plans three stages of investment worth $1 billion in the petrochemicals sector, it said. Rosan said he asked nickel firm Huayou Holding Group, which already has large investments in the Southeast Asian country, to build a research and development centre in Indonesia. He said the company agreed and Jakarta would give a tax break. The companies did not immediately respond to requests for comment. The minister also met with automaker Geely Automobile Holdings (0175.HK) , opens new tab and several other Chinese companies, the statement said. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/indonesia-says-chinese-companies-commit-746-bln-new-investment-2024-12-23/

2024-12-23 02:49

MUMBAI, Dec 23 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is likely to open little changed on Monday, after hitting an all-time low in the previous session, and could log modest gains after the dollar retreated from a two-year peak in light of a lower-than-expected U.S. inflation print. The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated that the rupee will open near 85.02-85.03 to the U.S. dollar compared with its close at 85.0150 in the previous session. The rupee declined to its all-time low of 85.10 early on Friday but recovered slightly by close aided by dollar inflows. While the global cues are on the "positive side for the rupee," on Monday, it may be hard for it to hold on to sizeable gains above 85 in the face of month-end importer dollar bids, a trader at a state-run bank said. The dollar index was at 107.7 after declining 0.5% on Friday following data which showed that the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.1% in November, lower than 0.2% rise anticipated by economists. The dollar index is on course for an over 5% yearly gain boosted by a hawkish turn in the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook and anticipation that policies under the incoming Trump administration in the U.S. could be inflationary. Asian currencies were mostly higher on the day with the Malaysian ringgit up 0.6% and leading gains while the offshore Chinese yuan dipped 0.1%. "We could yet see the dollar buying peter out as we enter the quiet Christmas / year-end period of trading. There is certainly an increased risk that you see some lightening of positioning ahead of the close of the year," MUFG Bank said in a note. KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 85.21; onshore one-month forward premium at 19 paisa ** Dollar index lower at 107.7 ** Brent crude futures up 0.5% at $73.3 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.53% ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $93.2 mln worth of Indian shares on Dec. 19 ** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $18.7 mln worth of Indian bonds on Dec. 19 Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/rupee-may-find-breathing-space-dollar-retreats-two-year-peak-2024-12-23/

2024-12-23 00:25

Dollar gains, with Treasury yields Global stock index up, Wall St indexes close higher Consumer confidence comes in light, capital goods rise NEW YORK/LONDON, Dec 23 (Reuters) - A global equity index rose on Monday with help from Wall Street, and U.S. Treasury yields climbed to an almost seven-month high while data showed a deterioration in U.S. consumer confidence and investors prepared for fewer Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025. In U.S. equities, Nasdaq (.IXIC) , opens new tab and the S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab were boosted mostly by rallies in megacap technology stocks such as Nvidia Corp (NVDA.O) , opens new tab and Broadcom Inc (AVGO.O) , opens new tab. Earlier, the Conference Board said its U.S. consumer confidence index weakened in December to 104.7 versus economist expectations for an increase to 113.3 and November's upwardly revised 112.8 on concerns about future business conditions. While new orders for key U.S.-manufactured capital goods rose in November amid strong demand for machinery, orders of durable goods, ranging from toasters to aircraft, dropped 1.1% after increasing 0.8% in October, with declines mostly reflecting weakness in commercial aircraft orders. Citing weak consumer confidence as a key negative for equities on Monday, Robert Phipps, a director at Per Stirling Capital Management, highlighted the 10-year Treasury yield's jump to its highest level since late May. "It's important for equity investors that the 4.6% level holds for 10-year Treasury yields and if we break above it there's a risk the market will go ahead and test 5%," he said, pointing to a slowing in Fed rate cuts as the reason. "The market is adjusting to a less dovish Fed policy," said Phipps, noting U.S. indexes looked weaker under the hood besides the rallies in heavyweight stocks. "It is a deceptively strong market," he said. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) , opens new tab rose 66.69 points, or 0.16%, to 42,906.95, the S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab rose 43.22 points, or 0.73%, to 5,974.07 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) , opens new tab rose 192.29 points, or 0.98%, to 19,764.89. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) , opens new tab rose 5.51 points, or 0.65%, to 849.74 while earlier, Europe's STOXX 600 (.STOXX) , opens new tab index finished up 0.14%. Ahead of Tuesday's shorter trading day and Wednesday's market close for Christmas, Tim Ghriskey, senior portfolio strategist at Ingalls & Snyder said investors still had last Wednesday's steep sell-off on their minds after the Fed clearly signalled for fewer rate cuts next year. "There's concern about the economy. There's concern about the Fed making a wrong move and there's the great unknown of what Trump is actually going to do," said Ghriskey, referring to U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's Jan. 20 inauguration. In U.S. Treasuries, 10-year yields hit their highest level since late May as the Treasury Department this week sells short- and intermediate-dated debt. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes rose 6.7 basis points to 4.591%, from 4.524% late on Friday, while the 30-year bond yield rose 6.3 basis points to 4.7791%. A $69 billion two-year notes sale was met with healthy demand on Monday for the first auction of $183 billion in coupon-bearing supply this week. The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Fed, rose 3 basis points to 4.342%, from 4.312% late on Friday. In currencies, the dollar rebounded while the euro fell as recent global central bank meetings set expectations for diverging rate cut paths in the year ahead. The dollar index , measuring the greenback against a basket of major currencies, rose 0.27% to 108.08. The euro was down 0.22% at $1.0406 and against the Japanese yen , the dollar strengthened 0.45% to 157.12. Elsewhere, Sterling weakened 0.31% to $1.253 and Mexico's peso < MXN=> weakened 0.6% versus the dollar. Oil prices settled down slightly in thin trade before the holiday with concerns about a supply surplus next year and a strengthened dollar. U.S. crude settled down 0.32%, or 22 cents at $69.24 a barrel and Brent fell to $72.63 per barrel, down 0.43%, or 31 cents on the day. Gold prices edged lower in subdued holiday-season trading, weighed by a robust dollar and high U.S. Treasury yields. Spot gold fell 0.39% to $2,610.66 an ounce. U.S. gold futures fell 0.67% to $2,611.10 an ounce. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/global-markets-wrapup-1-2024-12-23/

2024-12-23 00:00

LONDON, Dec 20 (Reuters) - It's been a brutal year to be in the battery metals business. Prices of lithium, nickel and cobalt collapsed in 2023 and have continued grinding steadily lower over the course of 2024. A sector that was once racing to build new supply has been closing mines and deferring projects as low prices bite into the cost curve. The road to an electric future has turned out to be much bumpier than expected with demand from the all-important electric vehicle (EV) sector not living up to expectations. This is also a story of massive oversupply with too much new capacity brought online at exactly the wrong time. And it will be supply discipline, or the lack of it, that will determine whether there will be any price recovery in 2025. EV NARRATIVE VEERS OFF TRACK The global EV market is still expanding. November was another record-breaking month with 1.8 million units sold, according to consultancy Rho Motion. Global sales growth over the first 11 months was an impressive 25% relative to 2023. But the positive headlines mask two unwelcome truths for the battery metals sector. China is still the main driver of the EV revolution with Western markets struggling to build momentum. While Chinese sales set a new monthly record in November, those in the United States and Canada were up by just 10% year-on-year in November and those in Europe were actually lower. Western consumers still need an incentive to make the switch from internal combustion engine to electric motor. German new-energy vehicle sales have slumped this year after subsidies were abruptly removed at the end of 2023. U.S. subsidies could go next year if Donald Trump makes good on his threat to roll back the Biden administration's EV policy. The second reality check is that many EV buyers, particularly those in the critical Chinese market, are opting for hybrids or plug-in-hybrids over battery electric vehicles. These have batteries about a third of the size of those used in pure battery models, meaning a similar-sized reduction in all the metallic cathode inputs. CHEMISTRY EXPERIMENT Some offset for lithium demand comes from the rising market share of lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries, which accounted for two-thirds of all EV sales in China last year, according to the International Energy Agency. LFP batteries are cheaper than nickel-rich chemistries and Chinese battery-makers have improved their performance to the point that CATL's latest Shenxing Plus model boasts a single-charge driving range of over 1,000 kilometers. They are, however, bad news for nickel, cobalt and manganese markets. The amount of lithium deployed on the road in new EV sales was almost 48,000 metric tons in October, up 28% year-on-year, according to consultancy Adamas Intelligence. However, the deployment of nickel, manganese and cobalt was up by just 10%, 4% and 2% respectively, reflecting both the shift to hybrids and the changing battery chemistry mix. SUPPLY FLOOD Lower-than-expected demand from the EV sector, particularly outside of China, has coincided with supply surges across the battery metals spectrum. BHP's (BHP.AX) , opens new tab Nickel West was supposed to be the miner's showcase green metals hub. It was shut down in October due to low prices caused by massive overproduction in Indonesia. Chinese nickel producers have made the technical leap of processing Indonesia's relatively low-grade ore into high-purity Class I metal. Combined Sino-Indonesian production will grow by 30% this year, according to Macquarie Bank. At least the Indonesian authorities have shown signs of supply discipline, restricting mining quotas and placing a moratorium on approvals for new processing plants. China's CMOC Group (603993.SS) , opens new tab, the world's largest cobalt producer, seems oblivious to the price implosion. It reported output of 84,700 tons in January-September, up from 37,000 tons in the year-ago period. Such is the scale of oversupply in the cobalt market that Chinese stockpile managers have been able to scoop up significant tonnages without any obvious market impact. Chinese lithium producers are also resisting production cuts. Many are vertically integrated, meaning losses in the ground can be offset against gains further down the processing chain. Even allowing for the many price casualties among Western operators, lithium supply is still expected to exceed demand for the third year running in 2025, according to consultancy Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. The supply overhang should shrink to less than 1% of demand from close to 10% last year, which may limit further price weakness. Supply surplus in the nickel and cobalt markets, by contrast, risks becoming structural until production is more closely aligned with demand. TRADE TENSIONS Given such negative supply-demand dynamics, it's not hard to see why the analyst consensus is for more producer price pain in the coming months. China is a dominant player in all three markets and shows no signs of giving up on its own electric dreams. This, though, is a point of rising tension with the United States. The final report , opens new tab of the Critical Minerals Policy Group, part of a Select Committee on U.S.-Chinese relations, accused Chinese lithium producers of driving prices lower "through a mix of dumping and overproduction". China, the report said, "uses price controls, vertical integration, and substantial barriers to entry to preclude competition". Joe Biden and Donald Trump may disagree on electric vehicles but there is remarkable bipartisan agreement on the need to build domestic battery metal capacity and loosen China's grip on the global supply chain. Trump 2.0 is likely to crank up the Biden administration's combination of federal spending and tariffs on Chinese metals. U.S. trade policy will add yet another moving part to an already complex battery metals market dynamic. Indeed, if the U.S. tariff walls are built high enough, there's a risk the global market will start fracturing into Chinese and U.S. pricing spheres. The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/electric-dreams-turn-into-nightmare-battery-metals-andy-home-2024-12-20/

2024-12-22 22:11

Dec 22 (Reuters) - U.S. President-elect Donald Trump on Sunday said he was appointing Bo Hines, who previously ran to represent a North Carolina district in Congress, as executive director of the Presidential Council of Advisers for Digital Assets that will be chaired by incoming crypto czar David Sacks. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-appoints-bo-hines-presidential-council-digital-assets-2024-12-22/

2024-12-22 20:07

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico's visit criticized by opposition as a 'disgrace' Ukraine refuses to extend Russian gas transit deal Fico's trip to Moscow was only the third by an EU government head since Russia invaded Ukraine Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer and Hungarian PM Viktor Orban have also visited Russia Dec 22 (Reuters) - Russia's President Vladimir Putin met Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico in the Kremlin on Sunday, a rare visit by a European Union leader to Moscow as a contract allowing for Russian gas to transit through Ukraine nears expiry. Slovakia is dependent on gas passing through its neighbour Ukraine, and it has ramped up efforts to maintain those flows from 2025 while criticising Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy for refusing to extend the contract expiring at the end of the year. Fico's trip to Moscow was only the third by an EU government head since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. Slovak opposition politicians called the visit a "disgrace". Fico said on Facebook after the meeting that top EU officials were informed of his trip on Friday. He said it came in response to talks last week with Zelenskiy, who, according to the Slovak leader, had expressed opposition to any gas transit through Ukraine to Slovakia. "Russian President V. Putin confirmed the readiness of the (Russian Federation) to continue to supply gas to the West and Slovakia, which is practically impossible after Jan. 1, 2025 in view of the stance of the Ukrainian president," Fico said. Fico came to power in 2023 and shifted Slovakia's foreign policy. He immediately stopped state military aid to Kyiv, has said the war with Russia does not have a military solution, and has criticised sanctions against Moscow. His visit to the Kremlin follows Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer, who visited in April 2022, and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who went to Moscow last July. EU allies had criticised both of those visits. Russian television showed Putin and Fico shaking hands at the start of their talks. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the meeting had been arranged a few days ago. In the talks, Fico said he and Putin exchanged opinions on the military situation in Ukraine, chances of a peaceful end to the war and on Slovak-Russian relations "which I intend to standardise". GAS TRANSIT Slovakia, which has a long-term contract with Russia's Gazprom (GAZP.MM) , opens new tab, has been trying to keep receiving gas through Ukraine, saying buying elsewhere would cost it 220 million euros ($229 million) more in transit expenses. Ukraine has repeatedly refused to extend the transit deal. Fico pushed the subject on Thursday at a EU summit that was also attended by Zelenskiy, who reiterated his country would not continue the transit of Russian gas. The Slovak prime minister, who has said his country was facing a gas crisis, has also spoken of solutions under which Ukraine would not transit Russian-owned gas, but rather gas owned by someone else. Hungary has also been keen to keep the Ukrainian route, but it will continue to receive Russian gas from the south, via the TurkStream pipeline on the bed of the Black Sea. Ex-Soviet Moldova has also relied on gas transiting Ukraine to supply its needs and those of its separatist Transdniestria enclave, including a thermal plant that provides most of the electricity for parts of Moldova under government control. The acting head of Moldovagaz, the country's gas operator, Vadim Ceban, said it could provide gas for Transdniestria acquired from other sources. But the pro-Russian region would have to pay higher prices associated with those supplies. Ceban said Moldovagaz had made several appeals to Gazprom to send gas to Moldova through TurkStream and Bulgaria and Romania. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/russian-president-meets-slovak-pm-ukraine-gas-transit-contract-nears-expiry-2024-12-22/