2025-12-31 04:59

Brent set to post longest annual losing streak to date UAE withdraws forces from Yemen in conflict with Saudi Arabia Oversupply offsets geopolitical risks, sanctions on producing countries US crude inventories fall, distillate and gasoline stocks rise Oil prices down near 20% on the year LONDON/NEW YORK, Dec 31 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Wednesday and recorded an annual loss of nearly 20%, as expectations of oversupply increased in a year marked by wars, higher tariffs, increased OPEC+ output and sanctions on Russia, Iran and Venezuela. Brent crude futures shed about 19% in 2025, the most substantial annual percentage decline since 2020 and its third straight year of losses, the longest such streak on record. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude logged an annual decline of almost 20%. Sign up here. On the last day of the year, Brent futures settled at $60.85 a barrel, down 48 cents, or 0.8%. U.S. WTI crude fell by 53 cents, or 0.9%, to settle at $57.42 a barrel. BNP Paribas commodities analyst Jason Ying anticipates Brent will dip to $55 a barrel in the first quarter before recovering to $60 a barrel for the rest of 2026 as supply growth normalises and demand stays flat. "The reason why we're more bearish than the market in the near term is that we think that U.S. shale producers were able to hedge at high levels," he said. "So the supply from shale producers will be more consistent and insensitive to price movements." U.S. crude stocks fell last week, but distillate and gasoline inventories grew more than expected, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. “It was a modestly supportive report on crude drawdown, but the inners of the report are not so great and it will probably be a rough January and February with the holidays in the rearview mirror," said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital Markets. Crude inventories fell by 1.9 million barrels to 422.9 million barrels in the week ended December 26, the EIA said, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for an 867,000-barrel draw. U.S. gasoline stocks rose by 5.8 million barrels in the week to 234.3 million barrels, the EIA said, compared with analysts' expectations for a 1.9 million-barrel build. Distillate stockpiles, including diesel and heating oil, rose by 5 million barrels to 123.7 million barrels, versus projections of a 2.2 million-barrel rise. Oil production in the U.S. hit a record in October, according to the latest data from the EIA. Oil markets had a strong start to 2025 when former President Joe Biden ended his term by imposing tougher sanctions on Russia, disrupting supplies to major buyers China and India. The impact of the war in Ukraine on energy markets intensified when Ukrainian drones damaged Russian infrastructure and disrupted Kazakhstan's oil exports. The 12-day Iran-Israel conflict in June added to the threats to supply by disrupting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a major route for global seaborne oil, which fanned oil prices. In recent weeks, OPEC's biggest producers, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have become locked in a crisis over Yemen. U.S. President Donald Trump has ordered a blockade on Venezuelan oil exports and threatened another strike on Iran. OPEC+ ACCELERATED OUTPUT INCREASES But prices eased after OPEC+ accelerated its output increases this year and as concerns about the impact of U.S. tariffs weighed on global economic and fuel demand growth. OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producing nations, paused oil output hikes for the first quarter of 2026 after releasing some 2.9 million barrels per day into the market since April. The next OPEC+ meeting is on January 4. Most analysts expect supply to exceed demand next year, with estimates ranging from the International Energy Agency's 3.84 million barrels per day to Goldman Sachs' 2 million bpd. "If the price really has a substantial fall, I would imagine you will see some cuts (from OPEC+)," said Martijn Rats, Morgan Stanley's global oil strategist. "But it probably does need to fall quite a bit further from here on - maybe in the low $50s." "If today's price simply prevails, after the pause in Q1, they'll probably continue to unwind these cuts." John Driscoll, managing director of consultancy JTD Energy, expects geopolitical risks to support oil prices even though market fundamentals point to oversupply. "Everybody's saying it'll get weaker into 2026 and even beyond," he said. "But I wouldn't ignore the geopolitics, and the Trump factor is going to be playing out because he wants to be involved in everything." https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-slips-brent-heads-longest-stretch-annual-losses-2025-2025-12-31/

2025-12-31 04:45

NEW DELHI, Dec 31 (Reuters) - Two monorail trains collided at a hydropower plant being built in India's northern state of Uttarakhand late on Tuesday and at least 109 workers were injured, a district official told Reuters. Most of the workers sustained minor injuries, said the official. Four suffered fractures. Sign up here. The trains collided inside a tunnel in Pipalkoti, the site of an upcoming hydropower project by Tehri Hydro Development Corp (THDC), owned in part by NTPC Ltd (NTPC.NS) , opens new tab. Gaurav Kumar, the top administrative officer in the area, told Reuters by telephone that the accident occurred on Tuesday night after the brakes of one of the monorail trains failed. The trains were being used to ferry workers and carry construction material. Kumar said the tracks had been cleared and that work on the project would resume on Wednesday. Hydropower accounts for about 51 gigawatts of India's installed power capacity of about 505 gigawatts, with Uttarakhand home to more than 10 operating hydropower plants with about 2.0 gigwatts capacity and several projects under construction. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/over-100-injured-monorail-trains-crash-indian-hydropower-site-2025-12-31/

2025-12-31 04:13

SEOUL, Dec 31 (Reuters) - Korea Zinc (010130.KS) , opens new tab said on Wednesday it has revised its planned share issuance to 2.833 trillion won ($1.94 billion) from the previously announced 2.85 trillion won, citing the finalised issuance price per share and changes in currency exchange rates. The non-ferrous metal smelter said in a regulatory filing that the $1.94 billion would fund the establishment of a non-ferrous metal smelter for the production of core minerals such as antimony and gallium in the U.S. state of Tennessee. Sign up here. The project aims to support U.S. efforts to reduce dependence on China for materials critical to industries such as electronics and weapons manufacturing. ($1 = 1,460.60 won) https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/korea-zinc-revises-share-issuance-us-smelter-194-billion-2025-12-31/

2025-12-31 04:05

Silver outperforms major stock indexes, currencies this year Copper at all-time high buoyed by AI, renewable energy demand Oil prices down 15% in 2025 on economic woes, rising supplies Cocoa is biggest loser as improving supplies pressure prices Palm oil may rebound in 2026 due to Indonesia biodiesel mandates SINGAPORE, Dec 31 (Reuters) - Precious metals were the standout performers among commodities this year, with silver outperforming most major equity indexes and currencies, while gold hit record highs on economic and geopolitical risks. Industrial metals also made strong gains in 2025, with copper hitting all-time highs, though cocoa, sugar and crude oil were among the biggest losers. Sign up here. Looking ahead, precious metals have room for greater gains in 2026 as interest rates are expected to fall, but agricultural and energy products offer little cheer as growing supplies and tepid demand curb any upside potential, analysts say. "Demand for metals is looking solid from both an industrial and retail perspective," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, a global brokerage. "The key fundamental drivers of central bank demand and investor positioning ahead of expected lower U.S. rates in 2026 remain intact." Silver gained 161% in 2025, breaking the $80 per ounce mark for the first time, while gold climbed 66%. Silver has drawn additional support from its designation as a critical U.S. mineral, ongoing supply constraints and low inventories, while sustained central bank buying has supported gold. Platinum and palladium are also on track for strong annual gains. "We continue to see upside in precious metals as a lot of the risks from this year remain going into 2026," said BNP Paribas commodities analyst Jason Ying. EYES ON OPEC+ IN OIL MARKET Oil benchmarks Brent crude and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude have fallen around 15% this year, with Brent heading for its longest-ever stretch of annual losses, weighed down by rising supplies. Energy markets have recorded losses despite supply disruptions arising from Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and U.S. measures targeting Venezuelan oil. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies have paused oil output increases for the first quarter of 2026 after releasing some 2.9 million barrels per day into the market since April 2025. "If the price really has a substantial fall, I would imagine you will see some cuts (from OPEC+)," said Martijn Rats, Morgan Stanley's global oil strategist. "If today's price simply prevails, after the pause in Q1, they'll probably continue to unwind these cuts." RECORD COPPER PRICES AND CHINESE DEMAND Copper on the London Metal Exchange climbed to an all-time high of $12,960 this week, marking a near-44% gain in 2025, with a weaker U.S. dollar, growing demand from artificial intelligence and renewable energy and mine output disruptions fuelling the rally. Tin made similar gains thanks to supply disruptions in Myanmar and tightening flows from Indonesia, while aluminium rose 17%, underpinned by China's cap on smelting capacity and a growth in demand from energy transition technologies. Iron ore traded on the Dalian Commodity Exchange has been supported by surprisingly resilient demand despite falling crude steel output from China and a boost from Beijing's relaxation of homebuying in big cities. But coking coal , a steelmaking ingredient, is in the red this year. BEATEN DOWN AGRICULTURAL MARKETS Cocoa - the biggest loser of 2025 - tumbled 48% this year, with a sharp rise a year earlier leading to both a decline in demand for the chocolate ingredient and a boost in supplies. Cocoa was one of the strongest performing commodities in 2024 with New York prices rising 178%, lifted primarily by poor crops in West Africa, a key producing region. Raw sugar and robusta coffee have also come under pressure, with each surrendering about a fifth of their value in 2025. While Chicago soybeans are poised to end 2025 on a positive note, China's resumption of imports from the U.S. following a thaw in relations has erased most of the losses incurred earlier this year when Beijing–Washington trade tensions were higher. Wheat and corn are set for a weaker finish as global supplies are ample. Benchmark Malaysian palm oil is down 9% in 2025 on plentiful supplies but the market is likely to find support from Indonesian biodiesel mandates. Rubber has given up 9% as improved weather in Thailand boosted supplies, though demand for tyres was dismal from the automobile industry. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/silver-shines-2025-global-market-spotlight-softs-oil-lag-2025-12-31/

2025-12-31 03:45

NEW DELHI, Dec 31 (Reuters) - Indian Oil Corp (IOC.NS) , opens new tab purchased its first Colombian oil under an optional supply deal with state oil company Ecopetrol, two people familiar with the matter said, as India's top refiner seek to diversify from Russian oil. Indian refiners are scouting for crude as tighter U.S. and European Union sanctions on Moscow's producers and vessels are disrupting Russian oil imports. Sign up here. India's Russian oil imports are set to plunge to a three-year low at 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in December, down from 1.84 million bpd in November, ship tracking company Kpler said in a note. IOC has purchased 2 million barrels of Colombian Castilla crude for delivery in late February, the sources said. The refiner has an optional contract to buy about 12 million barrels, equivalent to 6 very large crude carriers (VLCC), they said. Each VLCC can carry 2 million barrels of oil. The deal was signed in late 2021 and has been renewed annually since. IOC and Ecopetrol did not respond to Reuters' requests for comments. IOC meets most of its oil needs from Russia and the Middle East and rarely buys South American grades despite having optional purchase contracts with Mexico, Brazil, and Colombia. The terms of the deal, including pricing, have to be mutually acceptable to both the buyer and the seller, and South American crude has rarely been competitive with Russian and Middle Eastern grades, the sources said. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/indian-oil-buys-first-colombian-oil-under-ecopetrol-contract-sources-say-2025-12-31/

2025-12-31 03:25

World stocks hover near all-time highs as curtain closes on banner year Precious metals pull back as investors cash in following huge gains U.S. dollar suffers yearly loss, weighed by rate cuts, tariffs Crude prices see biggest annual drop since 2020 NEW YORK, Dec 31 (Reuters) - Wall Street indexes closed lower on Wednesday, echoing their world counterparts amid light trading on the last day of 2025, while investors took some profits in precious metals as they crossed the finish line of a roller-coaster twelve months. The three major U.S. stock indexes ended well in negative territory, content to drift along just below record highs and bask in robust, double-digit annual gains. Sign up here. While all three indexes registered quarterly gains, and the Dow logged a monthly advance, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq posted nominal monthly declines. "It was a rather tiring year looking back on it, and Liberation Day seems like it was eons ago," said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon in Charlotte, North Carolina, referring to U.S. President Donald Trump's April 2 sweeping tariff policy announcement. "It's frankly hard to find an asset class that did poorly outside of the U.S. dollar." Wednesday's modest moves cap a whipsaw year marked by geopolitical turbulence, on-again, off-again tariff threats, dollar weakness, and ongoing mania surrounding the artificial intelligence boom. "We think the next two years are going to be about the diffusion of AI capabilities throughout the economy," Ladner added. "Understanding that shift from ‘we've got to build this technology’ to ‘we've got to use this technology’ is going to be one of the most important things we can figure out from an investing and an economic analysis standpoint." Gold and silver continued to consolidate as investors took advantage of the precious metals' remarkable price jumps this year, with gold hitting a 46-year peak and silver seeing a record annual surge. Looking to the coming year, investors will seek clues into the U.S. Federal Reserve's path forward on interest rates as the flow of economic data returns to normal in the aftermath of the longest-ever federal government shutdown, with an imminent change of leadership as Jerome Powell nears the end of his stint as Fed Chair. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) , opens new tab fell 303.77 points, or 0.63%, to 48,063.29, the S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab fell 50.74 points, or 0.74%, to 6,845.50 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) , opens new tab fell 177.09 points, or 0.76%, to 23,241.99. European shares inched lower but remained just south of all-time highs, capping their biggest annual percentage gains in four years, driven by lower interest rates, Germany's fiscal support and a rotation away from high-priced U.S. tech-related shares. "When we look back on 2025, international stock markets dominated U.S. equity performance," Ladner said. "(That) is not something we've seen very often and is rather notable." MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) , opens new tab fell 5.37 points, or 0.53%, to 1,014.79. The pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) , opens new tab index fell 0.1%, while Europe's broad FTSEurofirst 300 index (.FTEU3) , opens new tab fell 1.62 points, or 0.07%. Emerging market stocks (.MSCIEF) , opens new tab rose 2.37 points, or 0.17%, to 1,404.90. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) , opens new tab closed higher by 0.05%, to 722.41, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225) , opens new tab fell 187.44 points, or 0.37%, to 50,339.48. TREASURY YIELDS RISE, DOLLAR SUFFERS BIGGEST ANNUAL DROP SINCE 2017 U.S. Treasury yields moved higher following a labor market report showing an unexpected dip in applications for unemployment benefits. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes rose 3.5 basis points to 4.163%, from 4.128% late on Tuesday. The 30-year bond yield rose 2.7 basis points to 4.8405% from 4.813% late on Tuesday. The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve, rose 2.1 basis points to 3.475%, from 3.454% late on Tuesday. The dollar inched higher but remained on course for a year-on-year decline as the greenback was weighed down by interest rate cuts, fiscal worries and Trump's erratic tariff policies. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, rose 0.01% to 98.25, with the euro up 0.02% at $1.1748. Against the Japanese yen , the dollar strengthened 0.17% to 156.65. In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin fell 0.70% to $87,581.56. Ethereum rose 0.22% to $2,972.29. Crude oil prices slid as oversupply concerns offset geopolitical risks, registering their biggest annual drop since 2020. U.S. crude fell 0.91% to settle at $57.42 per barrel, while Brent settled at $60.85 per barrel, down 0.78% on the day. Spot gold fell 0.78% to $4,312.39 an ounce, while spot silver dropped 7.1% to $71.04 per ounce. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2025-12-31/