2024-12-17 05:37

TOKYO, Dec 17 (Reuters) - Over 90% of market participants expect the Bank of Japan to keep interest rates steady at this week's policy meeting, a survey by money market brokerage Ueda Yagi Tanshi showed on Tuesday. The survey was conducted on Dec. 12-16 targeting 150 banks, securities firms, insurers and other financial institutions, ahead of the central bank's two-day meeting ending on Thursday. Of the total, 91% said they expect the central bank to keep short-term interest rates unchanged at 0.25% this week. But 95% of the respondents expect the overnight call rate, which the BOJ sets as its policy target, to rise three months from now, up from 67% in the previous survey in October. The BOJ ended negative interest rates in March and raised its short-term policy target to 0.25% in July. It has signaled readiness to hike again if wages and prices move as projected and heighten conviction Japan will durably hit 2% inflation. The central bank has been guarded on the timing of the next rate hike, causing market expectations of a move to fluctuate between December and January. Sources have told Reuters the BOJ is leaning toward keeping interest rates steady in December as policymakers prefer to spend more time scrutinising overseas risks and clues on next year's wage outlook. A majority of economists polled by Reuters on Dec. 4-11 expect the BOJ to keep interest rates steady this month, a shift from the November's poll that showed a slim majority projecting an interest rate hike. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/over-90-market-players-expect-boj-keep-rates-steady-this-week-survey-shows-2024-12-17/

2024-12-17 05:36

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Ankur Banerjee Political upheaval is jolting governments from South Korea to Germany to Canada, but for now investors are keeping cool and Europe's markets are set for a sedate open, waiting patiently for cues from this week's slate of central bank meetings. The markets' eyes on Tuesday will be fixed on German assets after the German parliament accepted Chancellor Olaf Scholz's invitation to withdraw its confidence in his government and cleared the way for an early election in February. The euro initially rallied after the no-confidence vote but was little changed during Asian hours, last fetching $1.051 and holding close to the two-year low of $1.03315 it hit last month. The single currency is down nearly 5% this year. While Germany's government may be floundering, its stock market (.GDAXI) , opens new tab has been on a tear this year, up 21% so far and widely outperforming the pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) , opens new tab, which is up 7%. A major driver of that rise has been the surging shares of software firm SAP (SAPG.DE) , opens new tab. Futures point to a lower open for the DAX index, ahead of surveys that could offer clues on the state of the ailing economy. Data on Monday showed that Germany's economic downturn eased slightly in December but business activity still contracted for a sixth month running. UK labour data will also be in the spotlight, with market pricing for the Bank of England to stand pat on rates later this week. Central banks in the United States, Japan, Sweden, Norway, Indonesia and Thailand also meet this week, with the Bank of Japan, Norges Bank and Bank of Thailand also expected to keep policy unchanged, while the Riksbank is seen cutting rates. The Fed will be the main focus for most, with traders seeking clues on what might come next after the expected 25 basis-point cut this week. With so many major policy decisions on the horizon, investors have been hesitant to place bets - and market moves have been muted. So while they'll be closely watching political dramas around the globe - from South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol's impeachment to Canadian Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland's resignation - they'll likely, for now, keep watching from the sidelines. Key developments that could influence markets on Tuesday: Economic events: UK wage data for October; Germany Ifo expectations for Dec; Germany ZEW economic sentiment for Dec Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/global-markets-view-europe-2024-12-17/

2024-12-17 05:24

Retail sales: U.S. data solid, China figures disappoint Stocks ease as Fed meets Traders eye Fed dot plot Bitcoin hovers near record highs NEW YORK, Dec 17 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks closed down on Tuesday and crude prices fell as investors parsed economic data and girded themselves for a series of central bank decisions, including an expected rate cut from the Federal Reserve. Bitcoin forged new record highs and benchmark U.S. Treasury yields steadied ahead of what is expected to be a "hawkish cut" from the U.S. central bank. The blue-chip Dow ended in negative territory for the ninth consecutive session, marking its longest losing streak since 1978. "It’s a respite for most of the market," said Paul Nolte, senior wealth adviser and market strategist at Murphy & Sylvest in Elmhurst, Illinois. "The averages are hanging around all-time highs and there’s been a big bifurcation in growth versus value, large versus small. Those themes that we've been talking about for the first half of the year are showing up for the last couple trading days of 2024." Aside from the Fed, central banks Japan, Britain, Sweden and Norway are all slated to meet this week. The BOJ, the Bank of England and Norges Bank are expected to stand pat, while the Riksbank is seen cutting rates. Members of the Federal Open Market Committee convened on Tuesday for their two-day monetary policy meeting, which is widely seen culminating on Wednesday with a 25 basis-point cut to the key Fed funds target rate. Markets will scrutinize the accompanying Summary of Economic Projections, which is expected to temper Fed policy expectations for the coming year in light of sticky inflation and robust economic data. "We're getting a cut right now because it's largely been priced in and (the Fed has) been sort of backed into it by their earlier commitments, and by the market," said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth in Fairfield, Connecticut. "Going forward, they're going to be on a pause until more favorable inflation data comes their way," Pavlik added. "I’d rather have a hawkish cut than no cut." A better-than-expected retail sales report underscored U.S. economic strength, which contrasted with weak retail sales from China, which raised the specter of softening global demand. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) , opens new tab fell 266.93 points, or 0.61%, to 43,450.55, the S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab fell 23.45 points, or 0.39%, to 6,050.63 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) , opens new tab fell 64.83 points, or 0.32%, to 20,109.06. European stocks fell to two-week lows, weighed down by energy and healthcare stocks ahead of central bank decisions and as downbeat data from China stoked demand concerns. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) , opens new tab fell 3.86 points, or 0.44%, to 863.98. The STOXX 600 (.STOXX) , opens new tab index fell 0.42%, while Europe's broad FTSEurofirst 300 index (.FTEU3) , opens new tab fell 7.75 points, or 0.38%. Emerging market stocks (.MSCIEF) , opens new tab fell 9.32 points, or 0.84%, to 1,093.89. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) , opens new tab closed lower by 0.63%, to 579.66, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225) , opens new tab fell 92.81 points, or 0.24%, to 39,364.68. Yields on 10-year Treasuries backed away from three-week highs ahead of the Fed's rate decision and economic projections. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes fell 0.4 basis points to 4.395%, from 4.399% late on Monday. The 30-year bond yield fell 2.6 basis points to 4.5837% from 4.61% late on Monday. The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve, fell 0.6 basis points to 4.245%, from 4.249% late on Monday. The dollar inched higher against a basket of world currencies as better-than-expected retail sales data suggested economic momentum as investors digested the likelihood that the Fed would slow its easing to a more gradual pace in the coming year. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, rose 0.18% to 106.98, with the euro down 0.22% at $1.0487. Against the Japanese yen , the dollar weakened 0.42% to 153.51. Bitcoin touched yet another record high, as cryptocurrencies continue to coast on the prospect of a strategic bitcoin reserve proposed by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin gained 0.52% to $106,635.28. Ethereum declined 2.83% to $3,933.80. Oil prices slid amid renewed demand worries in the wake of economic data from Germany and China. U.S. crude fell 0.89% to $70.08 per barrel, while Brent slid to $73.19 per barrel, down 0.97% on the day. Gold pulled back under pressure from a strong dollar as investors lowered their expectations for the pace and extent of interest rate cuts in the coming year. Spot gold fell 0.32% to $2,643.84 an ounce. U.S. gold futures fell 0.48% to $2,638.80 an ounce. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/global-markets-wrapup-1-2024-12-17/

2024-12-17 05:21

China's retail sales disappoint market German business morale worsens more than expected Upcoming: US Fed expected to cut interest rates on Wednesday Upcoming: US oil storage data from API and EIA NEW YORK, Dec 17 (Reuters) - Oil prices eased about 1% to a one-week low on Tuesday on demand worries following the release of negative economic news from Germany and China, while investors remained cautious ahead of a U.S. Federal Reserve decision on interest rates. Brent futures fell 72 cents, or 1.0%, to settle at $73.19 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude slipped 63 cents, or 0.9%, to settle at $70.08. That was the lowest close for Brent since Dec. 10 and cut the premium of Brent over WTI to a 12-week low of $3.54 a barrel, based on the February contracts. Analysts have said when Brent's premium over WTI falls below $4 a barrel, it does not make as much economic sense for energy firms to send ships to pick up U.S. crude, which should result in lower U.S. exports. In China, the world's second-biggest economy, industrial output growth quickened slightly in November, while retail sales disappointed, keeping alive calls for Beijing to ramp up consumer-focused stimulus as policymakers brace for more U.S. trade tariffs once President-elect Donald Trump takes office for a second time. In Germany, business morale worsened more than expected in December, according to a survey by the Ifo Institute, weighed down by companies' pessimistic assessment of the coming months amid geopolitical uncertainty and an industrial slump in Europe's largest economy. "The only good thing about Germany's just-released Ifo index is that it is the final major macro indicator released this year. Time to ... end a year that will go down as the second consecutive year of economic stagnation," analysts at ING, a bank, said in a note. In the world's biggest economy, meanwhile, U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in November amid an acceleration in motor vehicle and online purchases. The report from the U.S. Commerce Department had no impact on expectations that the Fed would cut interest rates on Wednesday for the third time since the U.S. central bank initiated its policy easing cycle. Investors, however, will watch U.S. policymakers' forecasts for signals on whether the Fed will be more cautious in 2025, as economic indicators, such as the retail sales data, point to continued resilience and inflation remains persistent. After hiking rates aggressively in 2022 and 2023 to tame a surge in inflation, the Fed started to lower rates in September. Lower rates decrease borrowing costs, which can boost economic growth and demand for oil. OIL SUPPLIES AND INVENTORIES In the U.S., oil storage data is due from the American Petroleum Institute trade group later on Tuesday and the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday. Analysts projected U.S. energy firms pulled about 1.6 million barrels of crude from storage during the week ended Dec. 13. , If correct, that would be the first time energy firms pulled oil out of storage for four weeks in a row since August, and would compare with an increase of 2.9 million barrels in the same week last year and an average decrease of 2.4 million barrels over the past five years (2019-2023). In Kazakhstan, a member of the OPEC+ group of countries, oil and gas condensate output is now expected to be 87.8 million metric tons in 2024, down from the previously expected figure of more than 88 million tons (1.76 million barrels per day), Energy Minister Almasadam Satkaliyev said. The European Union adopted a 15th package of sanctions against Russia, another member of OPEC+, over its invasion of Ukraine, including tougher measures against Chinese entities and more vessels from Moscow's so-called shadow fleet. Britain also sanctioned ships it alleged were carrying illicit Russian oil. OPEC+ includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies like Kazakhstan and Russia that have agreed to curtail output to support oil prices. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-prices-holding-pattern-ahead-federal-reserve-decision-2024-12-17/

2024-12-17 05:19

DUBAI, Dec 17 (Reuters) - Abu Dhabi's ADNOC Gas (ADNOCGAS.AD) , opens new tab said on Tuesday that it has appointed Fatema Al Nuaimi as its new CEO, effective Jan. 1, following Ahmed Alebri's decision to step down after nearly two years at the helm. "In her new role, Al Nuaimi will lead the delivery of ADNOC Gas' ambitious business strategy that is focused on growth, decarbonization, and future proofing," the company said in a statement, adding that Alebri will become the CEO of ADNOC Sour Gas from next month. Al Nuaimi, who is currently executive vice president for the firm's downstream business management, was formerly ADNOC LNG's CEO until 2022, and had previously worked to develop ADNOC's gas master plan. ADNOC's gas unit became operational at the start of 2023 as the state-backed oil giant consolidated its gas processing, LNG and industrial gas operations into one company. ADNOC Gas has since listed on the Abu Dhabi stock exchange, raising about $2.5 billion in one of the biggest IPOs in the region in recent years. Its parent was reportedly considering selling a further 3%-5% stake in the business. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/abu-dhabis-adnoc-gas-appoints-fatema-al-nuaimi-new-ceo-2024-12-17/

2024-12-17 05:17

Markets await Fed rate decision Dollar index rises, Euro weakens Bitcoin soars to record high NEW YORK, Dec 17 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar gained against major currencies on Tuesday following better-than-expected retail sales data that showed underlying economic momentum while markets braced for interest rate moves from the Federal Reserve and other central banks. Commerce Department data on Tuesday showed U.S. retail sales surpassed expectations by jumping 0.7% in November, backed by an uptick in motor vehicle and online purchases. Markets expect the Fed will deliver a 25-basis-point interest rate cut at the end of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, with futures implying a nearly 97% chance of a cut, according to the CME's FedWatch tool. Against the Swiss franc , the dollar edged lower by 0.2% to 0.89270 in choppy trading, after hovering near its highest level since July. The euro , which is heading for a drop of nearly 5% against the dollar this year, was down 0.24% at $1.048825. The U.S. dollar index - which tracks the currency against six others - rose 0.17% to 106.97, after trading as high as 107.08 on the session. "The market is trying to debate whether it's time to fade the dollar, which has had an incredible run this year," said Marvin Loh, senior global market strategist at State Street in Boston. "But it seems hard to really push back against U.S. exceptionalism and a stronger dollar going into the new administration, whether we're talking about a Fed that will probably not seem as dovish as it did in September or the challenges that keep popping up in the emerging and developed markets that make the dollar a safe haven." The pound sterling rose against the dollar after data showed British wage growth picked up more strongly than expected in the three months to October. The Bank of England will announce its rate decision on Thursday. The sterling strengthened 0.16% to $1.27040. The yen strengthened against the dollar, as markets have scaled back the chances of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan this week in favor of a move in January. It rose 0.42% against the greenback to 153.52 per dollar. The dollar weakened 0.06% to 7.287 versus the offshore Chinese yuan, as dour expectations for Chinese economic growth pinned 10-year bond yields near record lows. The Australian dollar weakened 0.6% versus the greenback to $0.6332, while the Swedish crown weakened 0.76% versus the dollar to 10.964. The Norwegian Krone was also down 0.56% to 11.2052 against the greenback. Sweden's Riksbank is expected to cut rates by as much as half a point this week, while Norges Bank will likely leave rates unchanged. Bitcoin rose as high as $108,379.28, trading near the $110,000 mark, before paring gains and was up 0.68% to $106,798.26. "I think that the market is worried that they're going to be only two cuts in the (Fed's closely watched dot plot) next year; so it's a little bit dollar positive," said Steve Englander, global head of G10 FX Research and North America macro strategy at Standard Chartered Bank in New York. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/dollar-supported-bets-2025-rate-cuts-evaporate-2024-12-17/