2025-11-07 11:20

BENGALURU, Nov 7 (Reuters) - India's consumer inflation rate likely plunged to the lowest in at least a decade in October on a sustained fall in food prices, and intensified by a higher base of comparison last year, according to the median forecast in a Reuters poll of economists. Some economists argued that a cut in the Goods and Services Tax, effective from late September, also contributed to the decline. Others said this may mark the trough in inflation. Sign up here. Inflation is cooling rapidly even as the latest official data showed Asia's third-largest economy grew nearly 8% in the April-June quarter, with the central bank expected to cut interest rates again next month. Vegetable prices have fallen by double digits for six consecutive months on an annual basis, keeping overall food inflation, which accounts for nearly half of the consumer price index (CPI) basket, in check. The CPI inflation rate tumbled more than a full percentage point to 0.48% in October from 1.54% in September, according to a November 4–7 Reuters poll of 42 economists. That would be the lowest in the current 2012‑base CPI series, introduced with the January 2015 release. Early next year, the government will shift , opens new tab the reference year on which the index is based to 2024 Forecasts for the data, due for release on November 12, ranged between -0.21% and 2.10%. "Base effects are most supportive in this month, as it mirrors the sharp increase in vegetable prices we had seen in October last year...(and) despite persistent unseasonal rainfall, food inflation remains contained in India, and we see distinct and broad-based disinflation across the country," wrote Rahul Bajoria, India & ASEAN economist at BofA Securities. Bajoria said there were downside risks to his inflation forecasts for this fiscal year, "largely reflecting lack of a food price pick up, which we typically see during the summer months." Economists have warned for several months that inflation has likely bottomed out, only for it to fall further the next month. "However, with unseasonal rainfall starting to impinge on supply, the risks appear skewed for a supply side shock to materialize, and with government raising import duties on pulses, several large sources of disinflation for food prices in 2025 might be on their last legs," Bajoria added. While inflation has been below the Reserve Bank of India's 4% target since February, economists say this masks shifts in household spending patterns. The Household Consumption Expenditure Survey for 2023/24 showed the share of food in the average Indian household's budget has declined , opens new tab. "Does the inflation basket accurately reflect consumer expense needs? I would say it's partial," said Kanika Pasricha, chief economic adviser at Union Bank of India. "This is exactly the reason why the government said ... it is coming up with a new CPI basket with a new base, which will probably have the share of the weight of food, in the CPI basket at 40% or lower in order to accurately reflect that impact." Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel components and better reflects underlying demand, was expected to have eased to 4.30% in October from an estimated 4.50% in September. The statistics office does not publish official core inflation data. The wholesale price index likely dropped 0.60% year-on-year in October after a gain of 0.13% in September, the survey showed. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-cpi-inflation-likely-fell-multi-year-low-048-october-2025-11-07/

2025-11-07 11:07

S&P 500 posts weekly drop, backing off record high Tech sector leads pullback, weak labor data also in focus Stellar Q3 earnings season overall coming to a close NEW YORK, Nov 7 (Reuters) - Investors will seek clues about the health of the U.S. economy in the coming week following worrisome labor market reports and technology-led turbulence that has knocked the stock market off record highs. The S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab ended on Friday with a weekly decline after three straight weeks of gains. The benchmark index was last down about 2.4% from its all-time closing peak on October 28 even after a generally strong third-quarter earnings season for large U.S. companies. Sign up here. This week, concerns about expensive equity valuations, especially for high-flying stocks linked to enthusiasm over artificial intelligence, were exacerbated by tepid jobs data, including a report that showed surging layoff announcements from U.S. employers. Alternative data released by private sector bodies have become more important for investors because the U.S. federal shutdown that began on October 1 has limited government releases. "We're not getting a lot of economic data," said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial. "At current valuations and the kind of gains that we've seen... investors are just starting to be a little bit more cautious. I don't think that is bad, but it is coming at a time where there is growing uncertainty around the pace of growth in the economy." Investors were gauging whether the pullback in equities represented profit-taking and a healthy reset after an extended climb, or the start of a more severe slide. Fears that stocks are in an "AI bubble" have kept Wall Street on edge, with the benchmark S&P 500 up 14% year-to-date and 35% since its low for the year in April. The S&P 500 technology sector (.SPLRCT) , opens new tab, which has led the bull market that began more than three years ago, has been hit harder in this latest drawdown, falling about 6% since last week. A series of reports on Thursday suggested deteriorating U.S. labor market conditions. Data from workforce analytics company Revelio Labs showed 9,100 jobs were lost in October, while U.S. employers' planned layoffs soared to over 153,000 last month, global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said. The Chicago Fed estimated that the U.S. jobless rate likely edged up in October to the highest in four years. That data came a day after the ADP National Employment Report showed private employment rebounded by 42,000 jobs in October. The Challenger layoffs report, combined with the lack of government jobs data, "raises a red flag in terms of whether or not the labor market has really stabilized," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York. Next week would have been a busy week of economic data, with government reports due on consumer and producer prices and retail sales. Those releases are poised to be delayed due to the shutdown. Investors will instead seek insight on the economy from traditionally more secondary reports, including the small business optimism index due to be released on Tuesday by the National Federation of Independent Business. As investors weighed the economic impact of the shutdown, the U.S. transportation secretary warned on Friday the government could force airlines to cut up to 20% of flights if the shutdown did not end. The lack of government data is muddying the outlook for the Fed, which must decide whether to cut interest rates again at its next policy meeting in December. After the central bank eased by a quarter percentage point for a second straight meeting on October 29, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said another such reduction was not a foregone conclusion. "The Fed needs help trying to figure out what's going on in the jobs market. They're getting seemingly conflicting signals and what they decide to do in December has ramifications obviously for the stock market," said Chuck Carlson, chief executive officer at Horizon Investment Services. Fed funds futures late on Friday were pricing in a roughly 65% chance of a rate cut in December. Before Powell's October comments, investors had viewed such a cut as almost a done deal. Investors were watching for developments that might suggest the end of the shutdown, which this week became the longest in U.S. history. Focus was also on remaining high-profile quarterly reports, as a stellar earnings season in general nears a close. With 446 companies in the index having reported, 82.5% posted profits above analyst expectations, which would be the highest beat rate since the second quarter of 2021, LSEG IBES said on Friday. Reports due next week include Walt Disney (DIS.N) , opens new tab and tech stalwart Cisco Systems (CSCO.O) , opens new tab. Those lead up to the quarterly report the following week from semiconductor firm Nvidia (NVDA.O) , opens new tab, the largest company in the world by market value that has symbolized investor enthusiasm for AI. "I would just expect a little bit more volatility around technology leaders and technology as a whole heading into that Nvidia report," Saglimbene said. https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-week-ahead-investors-watching-us-economic-signs-market-pulls-back-tech-2025-11-07/

2025-11-07 11:02

BUENOS AIRES, Nov 7 (Reuters) - Heavy soil moisture in Argentina's agricultural fields following an unusually rainy winter is expected to offset the impact of lower rainfall in the coming months due to La Nina, agroclimate specialists said. By the end of October, Argentina, a key global food exporter, had recorded four consecutive months of above-average rainfall, according to the Rosario Grains Exchange. Sign up here. The fertile fields are now saturated in some areas, providing a favorable starting point for the warmer half of the year, which will be influenced by La Nina. "Most models are already indicating the persistence of a La Nina event," Leonardo De Benedictis, a meteorologist specializing in agriculture, told Reuters. La Nina is a climate pattern marked by unusually cold Pacific Ocean temperatures, which typically reduces rainfall in key Argentine farming regions. However, the abundant precipitation over the last four months could act as a buffer. "Northern Buenos Aires, Entre Rios, and southern Santa Fe are closer to excess (water) than deficit, which is a very positive situation and shouldn't have such a negative impact," said De Benedictis, referring to the country's core agricultural provinces. In Argentina, the effects of La Nina are expected to be felt as farmers plant corn and soybeans for the 2025/26 season, with harvests projected by the Rosario Grains Exchange at 47 million and a record 61 million tons, respectively. SHORT AND WEAK LA NINA De Benedictis said changes in the rainfall pattern, following a week of heavy rains, would begin to show next week, with longer intervals between storm fronts and higher temperatures. Adding that the current La Nina phenomenon could be weak and short-lived. "It is low intensity and limited in duration, with the most notable impact likely in the second half of November, December, and January," he said. German Heinzenknecht of the Applied Climatology Consulting firm forecasts that November rainfall could remain near the usual 100–120 mm, followed by a slightly drier period through early January. "I think things will normalize in the second half of January and into February," he added. La Nina is always a concern for Argentine farmers, and two years ago it caused one of the worst droughts on record. However, Heinzenknecht added that for now there's little reason to be alarmed this time. https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/wet-argentine-farmland-offsets-drier-la-nina-outlook-2025-11-07/

2025-11-07 10:52

MUMBAI, Nov 7 (Reuters) - Indian financial assets are looking attractive across the board, HSBC said on Friday, citing equities' appeal as a hedge against the searing rally in global AI stocks, a favourable risk-profile for holding the rupee and value in government bonds. Analysts at the firm recommend an "overweight" position on Indian equities, saying that they now offer better value compared to Chinese stocks. Sign up here. The country's equity markets are also "a good AI hedge" and provide diversification for investors uncomfortable with the AI rally, the firm said in a note. The Reserve Bank of India's defense of the rupee over recent weeks provides good risk-reward for holding the currency, while improving domestic investor demand offers a tactical buying opportunity for the country's 10-year government bond, the note said. WHY IT MATTERS The positive outlook contrasts with the underperformance of Indian equities and the rupee this year amid trade friction with the U.S. Indian equities' weakness was exacerbated earlier in the year by limited exposure to artificial intelligence, prompting fund managers to adopt volatile high-growth strategies. Indian equities bounced back in October though, with the BSE Sensex (.BSESN) , opens new tab ending 4.5% higher for the month, while foreign investors snapped a three-month selling streak to pick up $1.6 billion worth of local stocks. BY THE NUMBERS HSBC has an end-2026 target for the BSE Sensex (.BSESN) , opens new tab at 94,000, a near-13% rise from current market levels. It also recommends buying the country's 10-year sovereign bond with a target of the yield declining to 6.25%, down from around 6.51% currently. For the rupee , meanwhile, the firm its backing a relative value trade that wagers on the Indian currency outperforming its Indonesian peer. GRAPHIC: KEY QUOTES: Indian "equities and bonds have performed better since September, and we see room for more ... If US tariffs on India’s exports are lowered, thereby improving growth expectations, then there may be more room for a rise in returns." "Foreign investors have heavily gravitated towards AI names in Asia in recent months, and some of that was funded by cutting their exposure to India. We see India as a good AI hedge and provides diversification for those who feel uncomfortable with the AI rally." https://www.reuters.com/world/india/hsbc-sees-indian-stocks-hedge-against-global-ai-rally-finds-value-fx-bonds-2025-11-07/

2025-11-07 10:51

KINSHASA, Nov 7 (Reuters) - The Democratic Republic of Congo has suspended activities at a Chinese-operated mining site in the south of the resource-rich country after a spill, mines minister Louis Watum Kabamba said late on Thursday. Congo Dongfang International Mining (CDM), which mainly sources copper and cobalt from the Central African country, is a unit of China's Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt (603799.SS) , opens new tab. Sign up here. Watum said on X that he came to Congo's second-largest city Lubumbashi after hearing about a spill from the site that had affected several neighborhoods. He said that the company does not meet environmental standards, causing water pollution and exposing the population to serious health risks. The three-month suspension can be extended if necessary, he added. "CDM must fully repair the environmental damage, ensure the remuneration of its staff, compensate the affected populations, and strictly comply with the requirements of the Mining Code," Watum said, adding that an investigation would be conducted into the incident. Congo, which accounts for over 70% of global cobalt output, froze exports of the metal in February to curb supply and drive up prices. Authorities lifted the ban from October 16 to resume exports under a quota system. However, cobalt producers are still waiting for government approval to restart shipments, industry sources told Reuters last month. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/congo-suspends-activities-chinese-mine-after-spill-2025-11-07/

2025-11-07 10:42

JAKARTA, Nov 7 (Reuters) - Indonesia plans to invest 371 trillion rupiah ($22 billion) in agricultural processing for several commodities in a bid to create eight million jobs, agriculture minister Amran Sulaiman said on Friday. Developing domestic processing is one of president Prabowo Subianto's top priorities in a drive to achieve 8% economic growth. Sign up here. "The total plan of 371 trillion rupiah will be invested in the agriculture, food, livestock, horticulture, and plantation sectors,” said Amran in a statement. Amran added that a big portion of the investment would be allocated for plantation commodities such as sugar cane, cocoa, and cashews. "Processing of agricultural commodities has a much greater impact on job creation. Together, we want to accelerate this," said investment minister Rosan Roslani after a meeting with Amran. In addition to the processing investment, the government is planning a 20 trillion rupiah investment to boost chicken and egg supplies for its free meals programme. The programme, rolled out in January, was a major election campaign promise by Prabowo, expected to reach around 70 million recipients by the end of this year. "We will supply, so that there will be no shortage of eggs and chicken in the future. We are preparing for it now," Amran said. ($1 = 16,570.0000 rupiah) https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/society-equity/indonesia-invest-22-billion-agricultural-processing-minister-says-2025-11-07/