2024-12-05 05:33

Bitcoin crosses $100,000 but pulls back slightly World stocks hold near record highs French government collapses, euro holds up Dollar dips, Treasury yields steady BOSTON/LONDON, Dec 5 (Reuters) - Bitcoin traded near $100,000 on Thursday as investors bet on a friendly U.S. regulatory shift, while world stocks pulled back slightly but held near record highs ahead of a key U.S. jobs report. France's government lost a confidence vote late on Wednesday for the first time since 1962, with far-right and leftist lawmakers joining forces to topple Michel Barnier's government. The move had been widely anticipated by investors, so the euro, French stocks and bonds were largely steady on Thursday as Barnier officially resigned. U.S. stocks dipped, a day after all three major U.S. stock indexes scored record closing highs, helped by the comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) , opens new tab fell 0.55%, to 44,765, the S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab dropped 0.19%, to 6,075 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) , opens new tab lost 0.18%, to 19,700. Powell said on Wednesday the U.S. economy was stronger than it had appeared in September when the central bank began cutting interest rates, allowing policymakers to potentially be a little more cautious in reducing rates further. "Already elevated consumer optimism towards the stock market has moved even higher since the start of the Fed’s easing cycle and the U.S. election, partly on hopes of lower taxes, deregulation and strong corporate profits," Jeff Buchbinder, chief equity strategist for LPL Financial, wrote in a note on Thursday. "However, this support for stocks is offset by stretched valuations, excessively bullish sentiment, and the potential for the economy to cool in 2025." BITCOIN IN THE SUN It was bitcoin's day to shine, as the cryptocurrency hit the $100,000 mark for the first time. It was last trading around 1.5% higher on the day, near $99,400. Its latest surge followed Trump saying he would nominate Paul Atkins, who is pro-crypto and pro-deregulation, to run the Securities and Exchange Commission. "At the end of the day, it's just a number," said Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered. "But the reality is we've been able to get to this level because the industry has become institutionalised this year particularly - and that's mostly the ETF inflows," Kendrick said, referring to exchange traded funds approved earlier this year. U.S. rate-cut optimism supported sentiment across broader markets. Over the past week and a half, markets have all but priced in an extra U.S. rate cut for 2025, and the implied chance of a cut in December has lifted from even to around 70%. Earlier this week, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he was leaning toward a cut in December. The closely watched U.S. ISM survey showed services sector activity slowed in November after posting big gains in recent months. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields were little changed as investors digested slightly higher jobless claims data. With eyes on monthly U.S. employment data on Friday, new data on Thursday showed that the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits increased moderately last week, suggesting that the labor market continued to steadily cool. The dollar weakened against major currencies, down about 0.4%, leaving the euro up 0.7% at $1.058 . The risk premium investors demand to hold French debt over German Bunds dropped further away from its highest levels in more than 12 years on Thursday after the widely expected government collapse. European stocks at a more than one-month high on Thursday, aided by bank stocks as investors hoped a new budget could be passed in France after Barnier's government was toppled. The pan-European STOXX 600 .STOXX , opens new tab> finished 0.4% higher, logging its sixth-straight session of advances. France's CAC 40 <.FCHI , opens new tabcame off a three-week high and ended 0.3% higher. "A lot of bad news was priced in, it was obvious that we were heading towards the fall of the government," said Francois Savary, chief investment officer at Genvil Wealth Management. Financial markets in South Korea were broadly steady after President Yoon Suk Yeol's failed attempt to impose martial law late on Tuesday triggered volatility and a political crisis. Oil prices were steady on Thursday as investors weighed an ample supply outlook for next year against OPEC+ delaying its increase by three months to April 2025. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/global-markets-wrapup-1-2024-12-05/

2024-12-05 05:27

KUALA LUMPUR, Dec 5 (Reuters) - Malaysia said on Thursday any attempt by the incoming Trump administration to impose tariffs on BRICS countries for trying to create a new currency or use alternatives to the dollar could cause global semiconductor supply chain disruptions. The BRIC grouping of major emerging economies initially included Brazil, Russia, India and China, and has since expanded to take in other countries. Malaysia has applied to be part of the bloc, which aims to challenge a world order dominated by Western economies, but has not yet been officially accepted as a member. Trade minister Tengku Zafrul Aziz said Malaysia was closely monitoring developments after U.S. President-elect Donald Trump said BRICS members would face 100% tariffs unless they committed to not creating a new currency or supporting another currency that would replace the United States dollar. Tengku Zafrul noted the United States was Malaysia's third-biggest trade partner and U.S. firms were the main investors in its semiconductor sector. Malaysia is a major hub which accounts for about 13% of global chip testing and packaging. "As such, any move to impose a 100% tariff will only harm both parties which are depending on each other for efforts to prevent disruptions in the global supply chain," he said in a parliamentary reply. He added that while BRICS countries have discussed reducing reliance on traditional trade currencies such as the U.S. dollar, there has been no official decision made on de-dollarisation efforts. The grouping does not have a common currency, but long-running discussions on the subject have gained some momentum after the West imposed sanctions on Russia over the war in Ukraine. On Monday, Russia said any U.S. attempt to compel countries to use the dollar would backfire, and only strengthen efforts among countries to switch to national currencies in trade. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/technology/malaysia-says-any-us-tariffs-brics-nations-could-impact-semiconductor-supply-2024-12-05/

2024-12-05 05:05

HOUSTON, Dec 5 (Reuters) - The oilfield service sector is poised for more consolidation in 2025, according to Deloitte's 2025 Oil and Gas Industry Outlook, with President-elect Donald Trump expected loosen regulations on the U.S. oil and gas industry. The uptick in deals in the services sector would follow a wave of mega-mergers among oil producers, including Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) , opens new tab and Pioneer Natural Resources and ConocoPhillips (COP.N) , opens new tab and Marathon Oil. Small-sized oilfield companies could seek favorable buyouts as their customer base consolidates and shrinks, according to Deloitte, the world's largest consulting firm, following rampant M&A activity across upstream customers. WHY IT MATTERS Deals across the U.S. shale patch have shrunk oilfield firms' customer bases, notably in the prolific Permian basin straddling Texas and New Mexico. That field is set to produce 6.51 million bpd of crude in 2025, according to the EIA, up from 6.29 in 2024. It accounts for just under half of total U.S. output. BY THE NUMBERS Deals in the oilfield services sector in the first nine months of 2024 reached $19.7 billion, the highest since 2018, according to Deloitte. Buyer interest for drilling rigs increased in 2024 with deal value reaching $3.8 billion, its second-highest level since 2018. KEY QUOTES "We think the new administration could be positive for M&A, and that we will see a little more loosening around that because it was getting more difficult to get M&A done the last few years," Deloitte's global sector leader for oil, gas and chemicals practice John England said in an interview. U.S. lawmakers have sought increased scrutiny by the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) over multi-billion dollar deals. Gas producers Chesapeake Energy and Southwestern Energy delayed their $7.4 billion merger after the FTC requested further information in April. The companies closed the deal in October. Exxon Mobil and Pioneer Natural Resources received similar requests from the FTC related to their $60 billion merger, which closed in May. "A fairly fragmented (oilfield service) market and some loosening from the administration sets a nice stage for potential consolidation," England said. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oilfield-service-consolidation-increase-under-trump-report-says-2024-12-05/

2024-12-05 04:31

OPEC+ delays output hike to April 2025 OPEC+ to fully unwind output cuts by end of 2026, delayed by a year Ample 2025 supply outlook offsets some support from OPEC+ decision Cooling U.S. dollar supports oil prices HOUSTON, Dec 5 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Thursday as investors weighed an ample supply outlook for next year against OPEC+ delaying its planned output increase by three months to April 2025. Brent crude settled down 22 cents, or 0.3%, at $72.09 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) settled down 24 cents, or 0.35%, at $68.30 a barrel. OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus allies including Russia, had been planning to start unwinding cuts from October 2024, but slowing global demand and booming production outside of the group forced it to postpone the plans on several occasions. "There were questions coming into the meeting as to whether there was cohesion or not (among OPEC+), they are definitely coming out of this unified but this also shows the challenging supply landscape they have before them while trying to prop up this market," said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital in New York. The gradual unwinding of 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of cuts will start from next April with monthly increases of 138,000 bpd, according to Reuters calculations, and lasting 18 months until September 2026. OPEC+ pumps around half the world's oil. "The overall signal to the market is constructive and will likely prevent any price downsides in the short term," Rystad Energy's global head of commodity markets for oil, Mukesh Sahdev, said in a note on Thursday. But analysts pointed to an ample supply outlook for 2025 as offsetting support from Thursday's OPEC+ decision. "The market is facing a surplus, there is no shortage of oil and there is not really any flashing sign of what to look forward to in the future to rally prices," said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho. Meanwhile, a cooling U.S. dollar (.DXY) , opens new tab was lending some support on Thursday. And expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this month will further ease the dollar's strength and support the oil market, StoneX energy analyst Alex Hodes said in a note on Thursday. A stronger greenback makes dollar-denominated oil more expensive for investors holding other currencies, hurting demand. In the Middle East, Israel said on Tuesday it would return to war with Hezbollah if their truce collapses and its attacks would go deeper into Lebanon and target the state itself. Meanwhile, Donald Trump's Middle East envoy has travelled to Qatar and Israel to kick-start the U.S. president-elect's diplomatic push to help reach a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal before he takes office on Jan. 20, a source briefed on the talks told Reuters. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-prices-rise-with-all-eyes-opec-supply-decision-2024-12-05/

2024-12-05 04:13

TOKYO, Dec 5 (Reuters) - Japan's government has no plans to revise a joint statement with the central bank that focused on pulling the economy out of deflation, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said on Thursday. The need to reverse excessive rises in the yen was shared with the public when former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe deployed his "Abenomics" stimulus policies in 2012-2013 that consisted of bold monetary easing, loose fiscal policy and structural reform, Ishiba told parliament. "But what could have been appropriate policies at the time, if sustained, could cause side-effects," he added. Ishiba also said the government must scrutinise what the appropriate exchange-rate level for Japan's economy could be. He did not elaborate on specific levels. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/japan/japan-pm-ishiba-says-no-plan-revise-joint-boj-statement-2024-12-05/

2024-12-05 04:04

Dec 5 (Reuters) - Bitcoin hit a record high above $100,000 on Thursday as the election of Republican Donald Trump as U.S. president fuels expectations that his administration will usher in a friendly regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies. The world's largest cryptocurrency was last trading at $103,225 . Since Trump's win on Nov. 5, the price has surged around 45%, driven by a swathe of buying that has poured capital into U.S. bitcoin-backed exchange-traded funds. COMMENTS: SHOKI OMORI, CHIEF JAPAN DESK STRATEGIST, MIZUHO SECURITIES, TOKYO "Individual investors must be excited to see the BTC price top $100,000 following the news of Paul Atkins being nominated as SEC chair. Markets knew Gensler would be stepping down and there would be someone who is less aggressive on crypto regulations. Of course, this doesn't mean BTC will rally forever, as there will be moves to take profits. "I think if BTC were to rally more from here, other crypto majors should catch up a bit first, such as Ethereum. Ethereum looks cheap against Bitcoin. Ripple shot up, but again we saw profit taking at $2.80. Altos look choppy. The crypto community is looking for positive headlines to take crypto prices broadly up even higher. The tailwind from the Trump trade is starting to weaken as markets have a lot of headlines already priced in." JEFF MEI, COO AT BTSE, HONG KONG "Bitcoin's surge past the $100,000 mark is not just a milestone; it represents a pivotal moment for the cryptocurrency industry. "The confidence is spurred by an increasingly favourable regulatory environment in the U.S., particularly with the appointment of Paul Atkins to chair the SEC. This is likely to drive further institutional investment in the sector, giving Bitcoin more credibility and leading to a new wave of adoption. "Looking forward, Bitcoin could reach even greater heights as more institutions begin to perceive it as a viable store of value and allocate funds to Bitcoin ETFs. I'd also expect more institutions to rotate into Ethereum ETFs, which haven't been as popular as the Bitcoin ones up until now. " GEOFF KENDRICK, GLOBAL HEAD OF DIGITAL ASSETS RESEARCH, STANDARD CHARTERED, LONDON "At the end of the day, it's just a number...but the reality is we've been able to get to this level because the industry has become institutionalised this year particularly - and that's mostly the ETF inflows. "Roughly 3% of the total supply of bitcoins that will ever exist have been purchased in 2024 by institutional money." TONY SYCAMORE, ANALYST, IG, SYDNEY "After spending the past 12 sessions working off overbought readings and rebuilding energy, the King of Crypto has smashed its way above $100k in trading today. "This is likely to be the catalyst for the next wave of momentum buying which takes it towards the next stop of $105k, before $120k in 2025." KYLE RODDA, SENIOR FINANCIAL MARKET ANALYST, CAPITAL.COM, MELBOURNE "It's a massive milestone for the true believers and possibly evidence of the asset's legitimisation. If we are talking where we go from here, there's reason to believe this thing could keep going. These end of year melt-ups often see Bitcoin more than double in value. "Given the reduced regulatory risk, the continued appeal of non-fiat assets because of the perception of US fiscal profligacy, and greater geopolitical risks, there are continued tailwinds that could support prices going higher." JUSTIN D'ANETHAN, INDEPENDENT CRYPTO ANALYST, HONG KONG: "Bitcoin crossing $100,000 is more than just a milestone; it's a testament to shifting tides in finance, technology, and geopolitics. The figure not that long ago dismissed as fantasy, stands as a reality. "Institutional adoption is evident, as seen by the increased volume on the CME, ETFs (exchange traded funds), and derivatives markets during U.S. hours. Essentially, funds now need to either get involved or risk standing on the sidelines while more gutsy competitors potentially outperform." BOBBY ONG, CO-FOUNDER, COINGECKO, KUALA LUMPUR: "Bitcoin reaching the $100,000 milestone marks a significant moment for the cryptocurrency market, reflecting its growing maturity and mainstream adoption. "The psychological importance of $100,000 is also attracting new investors and driving market sentiment. This rally demonstrates Bitcoin’s position as a leading financial innovation, solidifying its reputation as a digital store of value and a hedge against traditional economic uncertainties. "It also underscores the growing acceptance of cryptocurrencies as a legitimate asset class." SHANE OLIVER, CHIEF ECONOMIST & HEAD OF INVESTMENT STRATEGY, AMP, SYDNEY: "As time goes by it's proving itself as part of the financial landscape, slotting in more as a store of value as opposed to a regular asset you can value on the basis of things it produces, like shares. RAY ATTRILL, HEAD OF FX RESEARCH, NAB, SYDNEY: "It's the ultimate speculative asset, isn't it. "I wasn't surprised ... it was probably the cleanest 'Trump trade'. Just from a regulatory point of view and the concept of a much more easily traded asset, it's justified its run up, though it's now taken on a life of its own. "The test will be if we do have a big puke in risk sentiment at some point, and we start to see a major stock market correction. Where does crypto sit in that? I don't know the answer." RICHARD TENG, CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER, BINANCE, DUBAI: "Almost 16 years since its first block was mined in 2009, bitcoin has reached the landmark milestone of $100K per coin, placing the asset at a total market capitalisation of $2.1 trillion. "This also places bitcoin firmly on the very short list of just seven assets or companies that have achieved more than 2 trillion dollars in market capitalisation, the rest being gold and tech giants NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), and Amazon. "With talks of a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin reserve and more companies adding bitcoin to their corporate treasuries, we are on the precipice of true mainstream global adoption." JEAN-BAPTISTE GRAFTIEAUX, CEO, BITSTAMP, LUXEMBOURG: "Bitcoin reaching $100,000 is a watershed moment, highlighting its resilience after a challenging few years. Despite shifts in the political and regulatory landscape, bitcoin has proven its staying power. "This milestone reflects the growing maturity of the crypto market, as traditional financial institutions and retail customers increasingly embrace digital assets. Looking ahead, we anticipate broader integration of crypto into retail, professional and institutional holdings and pensions, coupled with a more diverse range of trading services and instruments, mirroring the evolution of traditional finance." Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/technology/view-bitcoin-surges-above-100000-2024-12-05/