2024-12-04 12:20
BENGALURU, Dec 4 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee will break through 85 per U.S. dollar to hit a new low in the next six months even as the Reserve Bank of India continues to intervene to stem the currency's losses, according to a Reuters poll of FX strategists. The results come days after news that growth in India, the world's fastest growing major economy this year, unexpectedly slowed sharply to an annual 5.4% in the latest quarter, triggering speculation the RBI may cut interest rates on Friday. Only five of the 67 economists polled by Reuters in late November expected a rate cut at this month's meeting, with most opting for two quarter-point moves in the first half of 2025. In the meantime, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's proposed tariffs, which are widely expected to create more inflation in the world's largest economy, have pushed up the dollar by nearly 6% since October. Since early October, the RBI has spent nearly $50 billion from its vast FX reserves to shield the rupee from the dollar's relentless strength, but it still weakened to a record low of 84.74/$ on Tuesday. Foreign investors have pulled more than $13 billion from the country over the same period. The Dec. 2-4 Reuters poll of 41 FX strategists forecast the rupee to trade around 84.85 to the dollar and 85.12 to the dollar in three and six months, respectively, survey medians showed, new lows. The rupee was trading at around 84.72/$ on Wednesday. "The only way for USD/INR is weaker, and this time around it's even more pressing for two reasons. One is the external headwinds... and the second is the domestic macro mix has changed for the worse," said ANZ FX strategist Dhiraj Nim. "With every Trump tweet, you have some FX pressure being felt for EM currencies, especially if your own country is being named," he said, adding the rupee was expensive compared to other Asian currencies and probably has to weaken more. Median forecasts showed the currency would weaken around 1% to 85.49 to the dollar in a year, with expectations ranging from 82.17 to 88.00. The trade-weighted real effective exchange rate (REER) shows the rupee is overvalued by around 7%, according to RBI data. This suggests there is plenty more scope for the RBI to manage a steady decline in the currency. "We are still the fastest-growing economy in the world and I do expect the downturn can be countered by more government spending, small cuts in interest rates and keeping the currency weak in the way it has been kept so far," said Anil Bhansali, head of treasury at Finrex Treasury Advisors. (Other stories from the December Reuters foreign exchange poll) Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/indian-rupee-gentle-one-way-path-down-breach-85-6-months-2024-12-04/
2024-12-04 12:08
Dec 4 (Reuters) - Futures tied Canada's main stock index edged up on Wednesday, with investors focused on strong quarterly results from the top domestic lenders. December futures on the S&P/TSX index were up 0.16% at 6:54 a.m. ET (11:54 a.m. GMT). Royal Bank of Canada (RY.TO) , opens new tab reported a rise in fourth-quarter profit as the country's biggest lender benefited from strong performance in its personal banking business. Meanwhile, the National Bank of Canada (NA.TO) , opens new tab also reported higher quarterly profit, helped by solid performance in its wealth management unit. Among sectors, energy was in focus as oil prices firmed slightly, with traders expecting OPEC+ to announce an extension to supply cuts this week, while heightened geopolitical tensions continue to dominate market sentiment. The materials sector also grabbed attention as gold and copper prices eased amid a marginal recovery in the U.S. dollar. The composite index (.GSPTSE) , opens new tab ended near a record closing high on Tuesday as gains in mining outweighed a drop in Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS.TO) , opens new tab following disappointing results. Across the border, the focus will be on the U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech later in the day, which could offer clues on the interest rate decision at the Dec. 17-18 policy meeting. Additionally, November private payrolls data, due at 8:15 a.m. ET, along with the highly anticipated November employment report on Friday, could also influence the Fed decision. Traders see about a 72.7% chance of the Fed reducing interest rates by 25 basis points. Meanwhile, Greater Toronto Area home sales rose for the fourth straight month in November and prices climbed to a one-year high as lower borrowing costs encouraged buyers to move off the sidelines. COMMODITIES Gold : $2645.12; +0.06% US crude : $70.09; +0.21% Brent crude : $73.85; +0.31% FOR CANADIAN MARKETS NEWS, CLICK ON CODES: TSX market report Canadian dollar and bonds report CA/ Reuters global stocks poll for Canada , Canadian markets directory ($1 = 1.4057 Canadian dollars) Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/tsx-futures-rise-after-strong-bank-earnings-2024-12-04/
2024-12-04 11:56
FTSE 100 down 0.3%, FTSE 250 up 0.2% AstraZeneca down on PT cut UK Services PMI falls Dec 4 (Reuters) - The UK's benchmark FTSE 100 fell on Wednesday, ending a five-day winning streak, dragged by AstraZeneca's decline on target price cut, while investors assessed domestic economic data and Bank of England Governor's Andrew Bailey remarks on interest rate cuts. The blue-chip FTSE 100 (.FTSE) , opens new tab fell 0.3%, while the midcap FTSE 250 (.FTMC) , opens new tab rose 0.2% to hit more than a six-week high at 1012 GMT. AstraZeneca (AZN.L) , opens new tab slipped 2.7% to the bottom of the blue-chip index after HSBC analysts cut the target price on the drugmaker's stock to 13,720p from 14,070p. BoE's Bailey reiterated that there will be gradual cuts in interest rates next year, adding that the process of falling inflation is well embedded. The BoE is expected to keep interest rates on hold at 4.75% this month, but deliver about 78 basis points worth of rate cut by the end of next year. The sterling fell after the Financial Times reported Bailey saying the BoE expected four interest rate cuts next year. Shares of miners Antofagasta (ANTO.L) , opens new tab, Glencore (GLEN.L) , opens new tab and Anglo American (AAL.L) , opens new tab declined between 0.9% and 1.7% with copper prices easing against a firm dollar. Additionally, ZIGUP (ZIG.L) , opens new tab was the top loser on the midcap index, falling 8.4% as the commercial vehicle rental provider's pretax profit fell 17.2% to 82 million pounds ($104.1 million) for the first half. Legal & General (LGEN.L) , opens new tab was a standout and gained 3.4% as the life insurer said it anticipates returning to shareholders a proportion of capital this year and was on track to deliver mid-single digit growth in operating profit for the financial year 2024. Meanwhile, Britain's dominant services sector lost steam in November, although not as much as first feared, as a looming rise in employer taxes weighed on firms' hiring plans, a survey showed. On the global front, investors braced for a crucial no-confidence vote by French lawmakers that will likely oust Prime Minister Michel Barnier's government. France's benchmark index CAC 40 (.FCHI) , opens new tab was up 0.2%. (This story has been corrected to say 'six-week high,' not 'seven-week high,' in paragraph 2) Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/uks-ftse-100-falls-astrazeneca-boe-governors-remarks-weigh-2024-12-04/
2024-12-04 11:32
PARIS, Dec 4 (Reuters) - French nuclear fuels company Orano said on Wednesday that authorities in Niger have taken control of its Somair uranium mine as the military-led government steps up pressure on foreign investors in the West African country. Orano, which owns about 63% of the mine, said in a statement that decisions taken at Somair board meetings were no longer being applied. Niger owns the remaining stake in Somair. "Orano is today confirming that Nigerien authorities have taken operational control of the company," it said. The business climate for international companies in Niger, which accounts for about 4% of global output of uranium, has become uncertain after a military coup last year. Uranium is the most widely used fuel for nuclear energy and Orano, which has operated mines in Niger for years, vowed to "defend its rights before competent bodies" in order to allow Somair to operate normally, without giving details. Officials at the Niger embassy in Paris did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Reuters. Niger accounted for about 15% of Orano's uranium supplies when its mines were operating at full capacity. The company has said the halt in exports from Niger has been fully offset by a ramp-up of mines in Canada and Kazakhstan. In June, Orano said Niger had removed a mining permit for its Imouraren subsidiary. Canada's GoviEx Uranium (GXU.V) , opens new tab said it had been stripped of its right to develop a uranium project in Niger in July. Orano said it has been warning for several months of interference in governance at Somair, where it was forced to suspend production after authorities halted exports last year. It said a resolution adopted by the Somair board on Nov. 12 to suspend expenditure related to production to preserve funds for salaries was being deliberately ignored and this was "further deteriorating the company's financial situation". Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/frances-orano-says-it-has-lost-control-uranium-mine-niger-2024-12-04/
2024-12-04 11:24
LNG cargoes now scheduled for 2026 instead of 2025 Pakistan has LNG surplus and will not import more, minister says Islamabad in talks with other markets to defer five more cargoes No new deal signed to import crude from Russia ISLAMABAD, Dec 4 (Reuters) - Pakistan has deferred an agreement to buy liquefied natural gas from Qatar for a year, Petroleum Minister Musadik Malik said on Wednesday, and will now receive the contracted LNG cargoes in 2026 instead of 2025. "We currently have a surplus of LNG, so we are not importing any new cargo," said Malik. There were no financial penalties for deferring, rather than cancelling, the order, he added. Annual power use in Pakistan, which gets over a third of its electricity from natural gas, has fallen 8-10% year-on-year over the past three quarters, its power minister told Reuters in November, primarily due to higher tariffs curbing household consumption. The South Asian nation has deferred five LNG cargoes from Qatar and is negotiating to defer five more with other markets, Malik told journalists, without disclosing the names of the sellers. The government said in November it was slashing its electricity tariffs over the winter to boost consumption and cut the use of natural gas for heating. Many power utilities in Pakistan have had to curtail or even halt operations in winter months due to demand dropping by up to 60% from peak summer levels. Malik told Reuters in June that Pakistan was unlikely to buy LNG cargoes on the spot market until at least the beginning of winter in November due to oversupply and high prices. Pakistan, which last bought a spot LNG cargo in late 2023, cancelled its spot LNG tender for delivery in January owing to oversupply and a lack of buyers in Pakistan at spot prices. Malik also denied local media reports that Pakistan was closing a deal to import one cargo of crude oil from Russia each month from January. He said his government had restarted talks with Russia and was looking to solve obstacles such as "insurance, reinsurance, deal structure, shipping lines and ship cargo size", but had not concluded a deal. The previous caretaker government had decided not to pursue a government-to-government agreement with Russia, allowing the private sector to step in, Malik said. Pakistan signed a deal with Russia in 2023 to import crude oil for local refining, which included a 100,000 metric ton shipment to state-owned Pakistan Refinery Limited (PKRF.PSX) , opens new tab. Under that arrangement, Pakistan paid for the crude at a discounted rate using Chinese yuan. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/pakistan-defers-lng-contract-with-qatar-year-petroleum-minister-says-2024-12-04/
2024-12-04 11:15
Restoring power to hospitals, water pumping a priority Schools, other government services remain closed Blackout began with failure at power plant in Matanzas HAVANA, Dec 4 (Reuters) - Cuba said it was generating only enough electricity to cover about 1/6th of peak demand late on Wednesday, hours after its national grid collapsed leaving millions without power. The National Electric Union (UNE) said it was producing 533 MW of electricity by evening, still just a fraction of typical dinnertime demand of between 3,000 and 3,200 megawatts, leaving a majority of Cubans in the dark as night fell across the Caribbean island. Earlier, the communist-run government said it would prioritize returning power to hospitals and water pumping facilities. Schools and non-essential government services were closed until further notice. Lights flickered on across parts of the capital Havana late on Wednesday. The local electric company said more than 260,000 clients had seen power restored. It was the latest in a string of nationwide blackouts of Cuba's antiquated and increasingly frail power generation system. This year, Cuba's grid fell into near-total disarray, stressed by fuel shortages, natural disaster and economic crisis. Dwindling oil imports from Venezuela, Russia and Mexico pushed the island's obsolete and struggling oil-fired power plants into full crisis several months ago. Hours-long rolling blackouts and severe shortages of food, medicine and water have made life increasingly unbearable for many Cubans, who in recent years have fled the island in record-breaking numbers. Cuba blames the crisis on U.S. sanctions, which complicate financial transactions and the purchase of fuel. PLANT FAILURE The Wednesday morning blackout was triggered by a failure at the Antonio Guiteras power plant in Matanzas, the island's top electricity producer, which shut down at around 2 a.m. local time. Several other major power plants were undergoing maintenance and were offline when the Matanzas plant failed, starving the grid of electricity and leading to the nationwide collapse, the energy minister said. Havana hotel worker Danielis Mora woke up frustrated and confused, like many Havana residents, who experience regular blackouts. "I didn't know it was a total blackout again," Mora said. "Where I am living ... there is no gas either, if there is no electricity there is no way to make food, it has to be with firewood, or charcoal." Scattered protests have erupted over the past two months over the repeated power failures as well as water, gas and food shortages. Cuba's decrepit and long obsolete grid collapsed multiple times in October as fuel supplies dwindled and Hurricane Oscar struck the far eastern end of the island, then again in November with the passage of Hurricane Rafael. Cuba`s government last week issued a decree ordering state and private businesses to generate more of their own electricity from renewable resources. The regulations also require businesses to limit their use of air conditioning, among other measures, as the country wrestles with the increasingly dire energy crisis. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/cubas-electric-grid-collapses-after-power-plant-failure-2024-12-04/
