2024-12-04 00:07

BENGALURU, Dec 4 (Reuters) - A retreating euro will remain weak in the near term, trapped between political ructions building in France and expected new U.S. tariffs early next year that are boosting the dollar's allure, a Reuters poll of market strategists found. While there seemed almost no prospect for a rebound soon, most strategists were nonetheless convinced the euro would not fall to parity with the U.S. dollar in the coming three months, mainly because a lot of bad news is already priced in. With France's government likely to collapse later on Wednesday after far-right and left-wing parties submitted no-confidence motions against Prime Minister Michel Barnier, the euro has almost no chance of recovering any of the nearly 6% loss it has suffered since late September. Euro zone growth concerns, along with stronger prospects for more European Central Bank interest rate cuts in coming months, pushed the single currency to a two-year low of $1.03 in late November. Interest rate futures are pricing in over 1.5 percentage point more of ECB rate reductions by end-2025, twice the amount predicted for the U.S. Federal Reserve, where expectations have been in retreat on revived domestic inflation risks. Median forecasts of nearly 70 currency strategists in a Dec. 2-3 Reuters poll on the euro, currently trading around $1.05, showed it there in three months and around 1% lower at $1.04 in six, markedly lower than $1.10 and $1.11 in a November survey. "There are distinct reasons why the euro is vulnerable, very much linked to structural and political issues facing both France and Germany. A pressing question is whether those problems will remain confined to France or if there will be an element of contagion," said Jane Foley, Rabobank's head of FX strategy. "Germany too seems to be on the back foot, currently dealing with stagflation - a problem it has been unable to shake off - which is not a good sign for the euro." NO PARITY TO THE U.S. DOLLAR YET Still, only a handful of strategists predicted in their given forecasts the euro would equal or fall below the dollar within six months. The last time it did so was between September and November 2022, where it mostly traded below the greenback. Asked to rate the chances of the common currency reaching parity to the dollar over the coming three months, a near-60% majority, 24 of 42, said it was 'low'. "In the next few months, the chances of parity are relatively low given just how extreme euro bearishness already is, especially in the relative rate-cut pricing for the Fed versus the ECB," said Erik Nelson, macro strategist at Wells Fargo. "While there's a lot of things, particularly geopolitical, that could push euro below parity next year, positioning currently is already a little extreme." The remaining 18 said the chance of parity by end-February was 'high' or 'very high'. In a separate recent Reuters survey of economists who cover the euro zone and ECB policy, nearly 90%, 34 of 39, said President-elect Donald Trump's proposed tariffs would significantly affect the euro zone economy in coming years. "If Trump was to threaten to put in place higher tariffs against the EU at the start of next year or if the ECB steps up the pace of rate cuts - perhaps a larger 50 basis point cut at some point over the next three months - that would drag euro-dollar down towards and potentially below parity," said Lee Hardman, senior currency analyst at MUFG. A near-90% majority, 38 of 43 responding to an additional question said the U.S. dollar was more likely to trade stronger than they predicted in the coming three months than undercut those forecasts. (Other stories from the December Reuters foreign exchange poll) Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/euro-stay-weak-avoid-parity-usd-now-2024-12-04/

2024-12-03 23:56

WASHINGTON, Dec 3 (Reuters) - President-elect Donald Trump's choice to lead the Drug Enforcement Administration, Chad Chronister, said on Tuesday he was withdrawing from consideration, becoming the second Trump pick to do so soon after being nominated. "Over the past several days, as the gravity of this very important responsibility set in, I've concluded that I must respectfully withdraw from consideration," Chronister, a Florida sheriff, said in a post on X. The Trump transition team did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Trump announced his intention to nominate Chronister to lead the DEA on Sunday, saying he would focus on stemming the flow of fentanyl across the U.S. border with Mexico. The agency is part of the Justice Department and is responsible for enforcing U.S. drug laws. Some Trump supporters criticized Chronister's nomination, citing his arrest of a Florida pastor for violating a COVID-19 lockdown in 2020. Chronister, the sheriff of Hillsborough County, Florida, with more than 30 years in local law enforcement, also appeared to lack the broader experience suited for the DEA role. His withdrawal follows a similar move by former Republican lawmaker Matt Gaetz, Trump's first pick for attorney general who dropped out of consideration amid concerns about his previous conduct. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trumps-pick-lead-dea-withdraws-consideration-2024-12-03/

2024-12-03 23:13

Dec 3 (Reuters) - About 197 million Americans shopped over the five days from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday this year, data from the National Retail Federation showed on Tuesday. The number of shoppers exceeded the retail body's prior expectations of 183.4 million, but was still lower than the 200 million shoppers in 2023. During the long weekend, consumers on average spent $235, or $8 more than 2023, with top gifts purchases being apparel and accessories, followed by toys as well as personal care, the retail trade body's report showed. The data signals retailers' success in countering a shorter shopping window this year and bargain-focused shoppers through blockbuster deals. "Even with this year's shortened shopping period and the multitude of early sales promotions from retailers, this past weekend exceeded expectations in terms of the sheer volume of shoppers," NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. With only 26 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year, the NRF expects holiday sales to grow at its slowest pace. Black Friday was the most popular day during the Thanksgiving weekend with about 81.7 million consumers shopping in stores and about 87.3 million shopping online, the report said on Tuesday. U.S. e-commerce sales surged 14.6% during Black Friday, according to Mastercard SpendingPulse, while in-store sales edged up 0.7% from last year. Customers increasingly opting to shop on their mobiles and laptops instead of heading into stores, encouraged U.S. retailers to go all out with aggressive promotions and deals on websites and apps. Retail giant Walmart (WMT.N) , opens new tab has been offering varied deals on categories ranging from Samsung TVs to Lego and Hot Wheels toys through its pre-Black Friday discounts which began on November 11. Target (TGT.N) , opens new tab, on the other hand, slashed prices by $100 on certain products including 75-inch Westinghouse TV and also introduced 50% discounts on toys. Top selling categories on Cyber Monday ranged from electronics to jewelry, data from Adobe Analytics showed. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/us-thanksgiving-weekend-records-197-million-shoppers-retail-body-says-2024-12-03/

2024-12-03 22:51

Tax credit was due to take effect on Jan. 1, part of Biden's climate legacy Trump has vowed to repeal Biden's Inflation Reduction Act, which created the tax credit Dec 3 (Reuters) - Biden administration officials will not finalize highly anticipated guidelines on new clean fuel production tax credits aimed at the airline and biofuel industries before they leave in January, three sources told Reuters, casting doubt on the future of a key piece of the U.S. president’s climate agenda. The tax credit, the engine behind President Joe Biden’s ambitious plan to generate 3 billion gallons in production of sustainable aviation fuels by 2030, was due to become effective Jan. 1, but a lack of detailed guidance from the U.S. Treasury would render the program dormant. Air travel contributes around 2.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions, making it a big target in the fight against climate change. The Treasury Department on Tuesday reiterated its previous commitments, saying the agency anticipates issuing guidance before Jan. 20 that will enable producers to access the credit in 2025. Biofuel companies and their legislative backers were hoping to have a finalized program in place before Biden departs the White House on Jan. 20. They said they believed a complete program would provide some protection against President-elect Donald Trump's vow to repeal Biden's 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, which launched the program. Ethanol producers in particular are hoping sustainable aviation fuels will provide market growth, amid stagnant demand for the corn-based fuel as a gasoline additive. U.S. Senator Chuck Grassley said delaying the guidance would be disruptive to the biofuels industry and vowed a different approach to Farm Belt politics once Republicans take over next year. "The Biden admin's climate agenda has prioritized pet projects for coastal elites & left middle America behind at every turn That ends when Republicans take power next yr," Grassley said on the X platform. The biofuel industry is now pushing lawmakers to extend existing blender tax credits that were set to expire at the end of the year to deal with the uncertainty, according to multiple interviews with industry executives. The White House, which is overseeing a broad effort to finalize a list of unfinished climate rules, did not respond to requests for comment. The delay in establishing guidelines for sustainable aviation fuels is due to policy debates between agriculture lobbyists and environmentalists over how to ensure the program can achieve its climate targets, Reuters has previously reported. The Department of Agriculture is expected to issue guidance on what farming techniques qualify for the credit, but other key items such as a life cycle analysis that are necessary to determine the value of the credit will remain unfinished, the sources said. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/biden-administration-will-not-finalize-clean-fuel-tax-credit-guidance-2024-12-03/

2024-12-03 22:37

SEOUL, Dec 4 (Reuters) - A Bank of Korea official on Wednesday said the bank's monetary policy board will convene an extraordinary board meeting at around 9 a.m. KST after President Yoon Suk Yeol lifted a surprise martial law declaration overnight. The nation's finance ministry said separately that the country's stock markets will open normally at 9 a.m. KST. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/bank-korea-hold-extraordinary-meeting-around-9-am-kst-bok-official-2024-12-03/

2024-12-03 22:28

Raw Farm products suspended after bird flu detection Company owner says RFK Jr. is a customer Bird flu has infected nearly 500 dairy herds in California Dec 3 (Reuters) - California has paused distribution of raw milk products from the company Raw Farm after retail testing of two samples of its products detected bird flu, state officials said on Tuesday. Bird flu has spread among U.S. dairy cattle since March, and has infected nearly 500 herds in California, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Public health officials have warned against consuming raw milk because it can carry pathogens, including bird flu. Raw Farm is the largest U.S. raw milk dairy, with 1700 cows producing 70,000 gallons (265,000 liters) of milk weekly, according to owner Mark McAfee. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration says pasteurized milk products are safe because the pasteurization process kills the bird flu virus, California officials said. Thirty states allow the sale of raw milk. No people are known to have contracted bird flu from consuming raw milk, but cats have died after drinking it, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Raw milk makes up less than 1% of U.S. milk sales and is among the items including psychedelics and sunshine that Robert F. Kennedy Jr., president-elect Donald Trump's pick to run Health and Human Services, has said are being suppressed by the FDA. The California Department of Public Health issued recalls for two lots of Raw Farm products last week after retail testing by officials in Santa Clara county. The California Department of Food and Agriculture said on Tuesday that the farm is under quarantine and distribution of its raw milk product is suspended. State dairy inspectors sampled milk on the farm on Nov. 27 that tested positive for bird flu the following day, said spokesperson Steve Lyle. Raw Farm's McAfee said he is being vetted by Kennedy's team for a potential policy position at the FDA and that Kennedy is a consumer of his products. Kennedy must be confirmed by the Senate after Trump takes office in January. A spokesperson for Kennedy did not immediately respond to a request for comment. McAfee expects his distribution will be paused for one to two months, and in the meantime is sending his milk to the bulk milk supply to be pasteurized and sold under other labels. Santa Clara is the only California county testing retail milk products for bird flu, said the state health department. The county public health department said it has tested a retail container of raw milk from every dairy that sells raw milk in the county each week since June. The USDA in October said it would begin a national bulk milk testing effort to attempt to further contain the spread of the virus among dairy cattle. Nearly 60 people have contracted bird flu this year in the U.S., including 31 in California, most of them farm workers with exposure to sick poultry or cattle, according to the CDC. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/california-suspends-raw-farms-raw-milk-products-after-bird-flu-detection-2024-12-03/