2024-11-28 05:03

JAKARTA, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Indonesian rescuers are searching for passengers trapped in a minibus buried in mud after flash floods and landslides hit several locations in North Sumatra province, killing at least 27, an official said on Thursday. Torrential rain in the province since last week had caused flash floods and landslides in four different districts, Indonesia's disaster agency has said. A landslide in a village in Deli Serdang on Wednesday killed seven and injured 20, Hadi Wahyudi, North Sumatra police spokesperson told Reuters. Rescuers were looking for missing people, including those trapped in a minibus and other vehicles on a hilly interprovince road hit by a mudslide, he said, adding he could not give an estimate for the number of affected people. In other places, rescuers have found 20 dead during a search that started over the weekend. They are still searching for two missing. "Today, we're focusing our search to find missing people and clearing the roads affected by the landslides," said Hadi, adding excavators were deployed. The landslides and flash floods damaged houses, mosques, and rice fields. Heavy rains also triggered floods in the provincial capital of Medan, forcing a delay in votes for a regional election in some polling stations. Extreme weather is expected in Indonesia towards the end of 2024, as the La Nina phenomenon increases rainfalls across the tropical archipelago, the country's weather agency has warned. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/landslides-indonesias-sumatra-kill-least-27-rescuers-search-missing-2024-11-28/

2024-11-28 04:46

Israel says ceasefire with Hezbollah violated OPEC+ delays meeting to Dec. 5 from Dec. 1 US gasoline stocks showed surprise increase last week Oil prices remain depressed by low demand in U.S., China Nov 28 (Reuters) - Oil prices ticked up on Thursday after Israel and Lebanese armed group Hezbollah traded accusations that their ceasefire had been violated, and as Israeli tanks fired on south Lebanon. OPEC+ also delayed by a few days a meeting likely to extend production cuts. Brent crude futures edged up by 34 cents, or 0.5%, to $73.17 a barrel by 2026 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 16 cents, or 0.2%, at $68.88. Trading was thin because of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. Israel's military said the ceasefire was violated after what it called suspects, some in vehicles, arrived at several areas in the southern zone. The deal, which took effect on Wednesday, was intended to allow people in both countries to start returning to homes in border areas shattered by 14 months of fighting. The Middle East is one of the world's major oil-producing regions, and while the ongoing conflict has not so far not impacted supply it has been reflected in a risk premium for traders. Elsewhere, OPEC+, comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, delayed its next policy meeting to Dec. 5 from Dec. 1 to avoid a conflict with another event. Also supporting prices, OPEC+ sources have said there will again be discussion over another delay to an oil output increase scheduled for January. "It's highly unlikely they are going to announce an increase production at this meeting," said Rory Johnston, analyst at Commodity Context. The group pumps about half the world's oil but has maintained production cuts to support prices. It hopes to unwind those cuts, but weak global demand has forced it to delay the start of gradual increases. A further delay has mostly been factored in to oil prices already, said Suvro Sarkar at DBS Bank. "The only question is whether it's a one-month pushback, or three, or even longer." Depressing prices slightly, U.S. gasoline stocks rose 3.3 million barrels in the week ending Nov. 22, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday, countering expectations of a small draw in fuel stocks ahead of holiday travel. Slowing fuel demand growth in top consumers China and the U.S. has weighed on oil prices this year. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-edges-lower-after-jump-us-gasoline-stocks-opec-supply-decision-focus-2024-11-28/

2024-11-28 04:07

SEOUL, Nov 28 (Reuters) - South Korea grappled with heavy snowfall for a second day on Thursday, with dozens of flights cancelled, ferry operations suspended and at least five people reported dead in a cold snap, though conditions showed signs of easing. The snowfall was the third-heaviest in Seoul, the capital, since records began in 1907, the Yonhap news agency said, citing data from the city. "It's been snowing a lot today," said 73-year-old Lee Sook-ja as she tucked into some soup at Namdaemun market, one of the biggest in Seoul. "It’s freezing and chilly, but having a cup of hot fish cake soup really helps warm me up." More than 40 cm (16 inches) of snow piled up in parts of Seoul by Thursday morning, forcing the cancellation of more than 140 flights, although weather officials subsequently lifted heavy snow warnings in the city's metropolitan area. Yonhap reported at least five snowfall-related deaths in the province of Gyeonggi adjoining Seoul since Wednesday, four people when structures collapsed under the weight of snow, and one in a traffic accident when a bus skidded on an icy road. Police said 11 people were injured on Wednesday evening in a 53-vehicle pile-up on a highway in the central city of Wonju in Gangwon province. Seoul's main airport, Incheon, was the worst affected, with passengers facing delays of about two hours on average, while 31% of flights were delayed and 16% cancelled on Thursday, plane tracking website Flightradar24 showed. Authorities said about 142 flights were cancelled, and 76 ferry routes suspended, while media reported some train delays. By noon, about 1,285 schools including kindergartens closed in Gyeonggi province, authorities said. The unusually heavy November snow has been attributed to warmer-than-usual temperatures of the seas west of the Korean peninsula encountering currents of cold air. Neighbouring North Korea has also received more than 10 cm (4 inches) of snow in some areas between Tuesday and Wednesday, state broadcaster Korean Central Television said. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-korea-battles-second-day-heavy-snow-four-dead-2024-11-28/

2024-11-28 04:03

BOK votes 5-2 to cut interest rates to 3.00% Governor says 3 board members open to more cuts ahead Rhee says growing trade protectionism clouding outlook SEOUL, Nov 28 (Reuters) - South Korea's central bank delivered a surprise interest rate cut on Thursday and signaled more to come, as economic growth faltered and policymakers turned a wary eye to trade risks from a second Donald Trump presidency. The Bank of Korea cut benchmark interest rates (KROCRT=ECI) , opens new tab for a second straight meeting to 3.00%, an outcome only four of 38 economists polled by Reuters foresaw. The bank's seven-member board voted five-two for the cut. Governor Rhee Chang-yong said three board members were open to further easing in the next three months as the return of former president Trump clouds the outlook for South Korea's export-reliant economy. "Exports competition with major countries looks to be intensifying while we also took note of uncertainties ahead on the trade environment after Trump's election victory," Governor Rhee said in a news conference after the decision. Thursday's rate cut was the first back-to-back rate cut since early 2009 as policymakers sought to revive growth now that inflationary pressures seem to have come under control. Asia's fourth-largest economy faces risks of higher tariffs while it's biggest trading partner China could potentially face tariffs of up to 60%. South Korea registered a record trade surplus of $44.4 billion with the U.S. in 2023, bigger than that for any of its other trading partners. For President Yoon Suk Yeol's government, Trump's election has also added urgency to safeguard key growth engines, including the local chip industry. On Wednesday, the government announced plans to bolster support for local chipmakers, to help an industry that could face unfavorable policies from the upcoming Trump administration. "Although there were two dissenters, the fact that they had three board members who are open to near-term cuts meant Rhee practically signaled more cuts are on the way, especially as he placed some emphasis on supporting growth," said Ahn Jae-kyun, an analyst at Shinhan Securities. He sees the BOK cutting again in the first quarter. South Korea's economy barely skirted a technical recession in the third quarter, expanding just 0.1% after an earlier contraction, as a recovery in private consumption slowed and exports stalled. The government is considering drawing up a supplementary budget early next year to counter slumping consumer spending and slowing economic growth, local media reported last week. Asked if the bank was ready for further downward pressure on the won, Asia's worst-performing currency this year, Rhee said he would work with the government to stabilize forex market as needed. Policymakers in New Zealand, Canada and Sweden have also lowered their benchmark rates by more than 100 points in recent months. The BOK downgraded forecasts for both growth and inflation this year. It cut 2024 growth forecast to 2.2% from 2.4% previously. For next year it sees the economy expanding 1.9%, weaker than its 2.1% outlook before. It also sees consumer inflation at 2.3% for this year, slower than 2.5% forecast previously. South Korea's policy-sensitive three-year treasury bond futures rose as much as 0.22 points to 106.63 after the press conference, while the won weakened. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/south-korea-makes-first-back-to-back-rate-cuts-since-2009-2024-11-28/

2024-11-28 03:02

MUMBAI, Nov 28 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is expected to open flat to slightly higher on Thursday, supported by a pullback in the U.S. dollar index due to a dip in U.S. bond yields. The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated that the rupee will open at 84.43-84.44 to the dollar, compared with its close of 84.4525 in the previous session. The rupee is expected to see mostly rangebound trading, pressured by portfolio outflows on the one side and stern central bank defence of the currency on the other, traders said. The Reserve Bank of India has routinely intervened to limit the rupee's losses to near 84.50. It's "quite likely that it (USD/INR) settles into an 84.35-84.50 range in the near term," a trader at a private bank said, adding that as and when the central bank allowed further weakness, 84.70 would be the key level to watch. The dollar index dropped 0.7% on Wednesday and was little changed at 106.17 in Asia trading. A stronger euro, following hawkish remarks from a European Central Bank policymaker, and gains in the Japanese yen spurred growing bets Japan could hike interest rates in December that, alongside lower U.S bond yields, weighed on the dollar. Treasury yields retreated, with the 10-year yield dipping to a four-week low of 4.22%, after U.S. personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data came in along expected lines. The economic cues imply "that the Fed cuts in December, but the FOMC may likely communicate a slower pace of easing in 2025 in part to account for the new Trump administration's policy priorities," MUFG Bank said in a note. President-elect Donald Trump has vowed to impose tariffs on the United States' three largest trading partners -- China, Canada and Mexico -- and has proposed other policies that analysts reckon could put upward pressure on U.S. inflation. KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 84.56; onshore one-month forward premium at 13.25 paisa ** Dollar index at 106.17 ** Brent crude futures down 0.1% at $72.8 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.26% ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors bought a net $452.6 mln worth of Indian shares on Nov. 26 ** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $91.5 mln worth of Indian bonds on Nov. 26 Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/rupee-eyes-breathing-room-dollar-softens-us-bond-yields-dip-2024-11-28/

2024-11-28 02:41

62 of 67 economists see RBI keeping repo rate on hold on Dec. 6 Five expect 25 bps rate cut BENGALURU, Nov 28 (Reuters) - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is set to hold interest rates on Dec. 6 as a sharp rise in consumer inflation has led several economists in a Reuters poll to push back their forecasts for the first cut in the cycle by a couple of months to February. Annual retail inflation surged past the RBI's 6% tolerance ceiling in October, driven by soaring food prices. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das, whose term is likely to be extended, recently said any premature move to lower rates would be risky. This was despite the RBI changing its monetary policy stance to 'neutral' in October and calls from top government ministers to cut interest rates to support a slowing economy. A strong majority of economists, 62 of 67, in the Nov. 18-27 Reuters poll predicted the RBI would hold its key repo rate at 6.50% at the end of its Dec. 4-6 meeting. Five forecast a 25-basis-point (bp) cut. This marked a shift from expectations in a poll conducted last month, where a slim majority of economists anticipated a cut to 6.25% in December. "If Governor Das stays on ... policy loosening is not on the cards for the time being. Das has been one of the more hawkish panel members in recent months," said Shilan Shah, deputy chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics. "That all said, there is growing evidence that the economy is cooling and we still think that inflation will drop back over the coming months. That will open the door for policy easing." Twenty-one of 48 common contributors who provided rate forecasts last month and this month pushed their expectation for the first rate cut from December to February or later. HSBC chief India economist Pranjul Bhandari, who shifted her forecast to February, said: "In the past, the RBI used to often look through vegetable price inflation, but that is not the case anymore." "Back-to-back (inflation) shocks seem to have made officials distrustful of quick disinflation in vegetable prices. It may prefer to wait now, and ease... (at the) February and April meetings." Median forecasts in the poll showed the RBI will cut interest rates by half a point to 6.00% by the end of June 2025, a view unchanged from last month. This is expected to be followed by a prolonged pause until at least early 2026. Such an easing cycle would start much later and be significantly more gradual than other major central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is expected to cut rates again in December and by at least another 50 bps in 2025. "If the Fed rate cut cycle is much shallower than expected due to expansionary fiscal policies and a rise in global trade tariffs, this will limit the pace of rate cuts next year for emerging market central banks," said Gaura Sengupta, chief economist at IDFC Bank. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who will return to the White House in January, has proposed to impose blanket tariffs of at least 10% on all imports. "Conversely, there could be downside risk to our terminal rate forecast if domestic growth conditions weaken more than expected," Sengupta said. Growth in Asia's third-largest economy is projected to slow to 6.8% this fiscal year (FY) and 6.6% next, a sharp slowdown from over 8% seen in FY 2023/24. (Other stories from the November Reuters global economic poll) Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indian-central-bank-delay-cutting-rates-early-2025-amid-inflation-concerns-2024-11-28/