2024-11-27 00:47

China CO2 emissions on course to rise 0.4% in 2024 China falling further behind on 2025 carbon intensity target New climate targets to be submitted to U.N. before February SINGAPORE, Nov 27 (Reuters) - China's emissions of carbon dioxide are on course to rise slightly this year, despite rapid progress on renewables and electric vehicles, putting a key 2025 climate target further out of reach, researchers said on Wednesday. China wants to cut the amount of CO2 it produces per unit of economic growth by 18% over the 2021-2025 period, but it fell further behind this year as a result of rising energy demand, said the Helsinki-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) in its annual assessment. China needs to cut emissions by 6% over 2024-2025 to catch up, but they are expected to inch up by a further 0.4% in 2024, according to CREA calculations, and radical measures will be required to meet the target next year. Progress has been made in curbing new steel and coal-fired power capacity, and a rapid decline in cement production has also slowed emissions growth, but CO2 from a rapidly expanding coal-to-chemicals industry increased 12.5% this year, CREA said. China's Ministry of Ecology and Environment did not immediately respond to a Reuters for comment. The world's biggest greenhouse gas emitter is currently working on a new set of climate targets known as "nationally determined contributions", which it needs to submit to the United Nations by February. It has pledged to bring total emissions to a peak before 2030 but the United States and others have been pushing it to commit to substantial cuts by 2035. While 44% of experts polled by CREA believe China's emissions have peaked already, there was still room for further increases before 2030, with a new package of economic stimulus measures launched in September likely to spur growth in carbon-intensive sectors, CREA said. China has revealed no details about its new pledges, but an influential state-run think tank said in October that it would encourage the government to set its first ever absolute carbon emission reduction target for 2035. "The concern is that the current thinking on emission targets for the next decade is very conservative," said Lauri Myllyvirta, CREA's lead analyst. "Setting an absolute target isn't progress per se. It's the level of the target that matters." Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-off-track-emissions-goals-energy-demand-offsets-renewables-push-2024-11-27/

2024-11-27 00:36

Nov 26 (Reuters) - President-elect Donald Trump on Monday pledged tariffs on the United States' three largest trading partners - Canada, Mexico and China - detailing how he will implement campaign promises that could trigger trade wars. Here are commodities and energy sectors which may be affected: OIL Canada exported some $177.19 billion in energy products to the United States in 2023, according to government data. Canada's crude imports make up more than a fifth of all the oil that U.S. refineries process. About 70% of imported Canadian barrels go to Midwest U.S. refiners that supply an area that includes Chicago and Detroit. Many of those Midwest refiners are configured to run heavier oil and would either struggle to find a direct replacement for Canadian oil or face paying a higher price if that oil is subject to tariffs. That could drive up fuel costs in the Midwest. The U.S. imported about 5.2 million barrels of crude and petroleum products per day (bpd) from Canada and Mexico in 2024, with more than 4 million bpd of that from Canada, data from the U.S. Department of Energy showed. In 2023, Canadian crude oil exports to the United States were above $110 billion, according to the Canadian Energy Regulator. GAS The U.S. imported about 8.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of natural gas during the first eight months of 2024 from Canada and Mexico, according to the latest data available from the EIA. Total natural gas exports were about $6 billion in 2023, according to data from the Canada Energy Regulator. Most of this year's gas imports - about 8.4 bcfd - came via pipelines from Canada. That compares with an annual average of 8.0 bcfd of gas imports from Canada in 2023 and an average of 7.6 bcfd over the past five years (2018-2022). The remaining roughly 0.1 bcfd of gas imports so far this year came from pipelines from Mexico, liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Canada and Trinidad and Tobago, and compressed natural gas (CNG) from Canada. The U.S., meanwhile, exported about 20.8 bcfd of gas during the first eight months of 2024, including about 2.7 bcfd going to Canada via pipeline, 6.4 bcfd going to Mexico via pipeline and roughly 11.7 bcfd going to various countries via LNG, according to the EIA. The value of those U.S. gas exports during the first eight months was around $11.0 billion, according to Reuters calculations using the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark as the spot price of the gas. AGRICULTURE The U.S. imported $40.1 billion of Canadian agricultural products last year, making Canada the second-largest origin of U.S. agricultural imports behind Mexico, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The United States imported nearly $3 billion of Canadian beef last year, $1.1 billion of pork and another $2 billion of live animals as part of an integrated, cross-border livestock producing and processing industry. Canada also supplies the United States with nearly half of its imports of vegetable oils and lumber and other forest products. In 2023, the U.S. imported $45.4 billion of agricultural imports from Mexico. About two-thirds of all U.S. vegetable imports and half of fruit and nut imports come from Mexico, according to the USDA: nearly 90% of its avocados, as much as 35% of its orange juice, and 20% of its strawberries. U.S. imports of Mexican tequila and mezcal - both used for making cocktails, such as margaritas - totaled $4.66 billion in 2023, up 160% since 2019. Each year, Mexico exports more than 1 million cows across the border to become part of the U.S. beef supply. SUGAR The U.S. imported 521,000 short tons of sugar from Mexico in the 2023/24 season (Oct-Sept), under a bilateral trade deal that reduces the import taxes on sugar from Mexico. It was nearly 15% of all U.S. sugar imports of 3.76 million short tons in the last season. POTASH The U.S. imported about 13 million tons of potash last year, of which 85% came from Canada, according to data from the USDA. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/factbox-how-trumps-proposed-tariffs-might-affect-commodities-energy-2024-11-27/

2024-11-27 00:26

Ford, GM fall after tariff threats Amgen falls as keenly awaited obesity drug data disappoints Wells Fargo up on report of likely lifting of asset cap 2025 Fed minutes showed officials divided over interest rate path Indexes up: Dow 0.28%, S&P 500 0.57%, Nasdaq 0.63% Nov 26 (Reuters) - Wall Street stocks, led by S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, ended higher on Tuesday, as technology stocks rebounded, while investors digested President-elect Donald Trump's tariff pledges on top trade partners and the latest minutes from the Federal Reserve. U.S. short-term interest-rate futures pared earlier losses after the Fed's latest minutes showed officials appeared divided over how much further they may need to cut interest rates. The minutes of the Nov. 6-7 meeting also showed the group agreed this was a moment to avoid giving much concrete guidance about how U.S. monetary policy is likely to evolve in the weeks ahead. "The minutes did nothing to alter my view that the policy rate is going to be adjusted lower next week and will continue to do so through the next calendar year," said Jamie Cox, managing partner for Harris Financial Group. Other analysts were more cautious. Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist for Capital Economics, noted that he still expects another 25 basis-point cut, but cautioned such decisions are data-dependent and therefore November’s employment and inflation data will be pivotal In a development overnight, Trump said he would impose a 25% conditional tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports that could violate a free-trade deal he negotiated during his previous term. He also outlined "an additional 10% tariff, above any additional tariffs" on imports from China, raising the risk of trade wars. Automakers Ford (F.N) , opens new tab and General Motors (GM.N) , opens new tab both dropped on the news as they have highly integrated supply chains across Mexico, the U.S. and Canada. GM shares plunged nearly 9%. "The concern is that some products are going to become more costly and that will mean revenue for those companies that are possibly manufacturing those goods overseas is going to decline," said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth. "It's a lot of back-and-forth right now because investors are trying to position themselves for January and the days after and they're not really sure." The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) , opens new tab rose 123.74 points, or 0.28%, to 44,860.31, the S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab gained 34.26 points, or 0.57%, to 6,021.63 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) , opens new tab gained 119.46 points, or 0.63%, to 19,174.30. Gains in megacaps such as Microsoft (MSFT.O) , opens new tab and Apple (AAPL.O) , opens new tab boosted the information technology sector (.SPLRCT) , opens new tab and the tech-heavy Nasdaq. Microsoft shares rose a little over 2%. Wells Fargo (WFC.N) , opens new tab rose 0.6%, standing out among sluggish banking stocks, after Reuters reported, citing sources, that the bank is in the last stages of a process to pass regulatory tests to lift a $1.95 trillion asset cap next year after fixing problems from its scandal over fake accounts. The blue-chip Dow was weighed down by declines in Amgen (AMGN.O) , opens new tab, which slid about 4.8% after its experimental obesity drug fell short of expectations. The S&P 500 touched a record high on Monday and logged its sixth-straight session of gains, while the Russell 2000 (.RUT) , opens new tab also scaled an all-time high after three years. On the day, the small-cap index fell 0.7%. Among others, Eli Lilly rose 4.6% after U.S. President Joe Biden proposed expanding Medicare and Medicaid coverage for anti-obesity drugs. Declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 1.57-to-1 ratio on the NYSE. There were 358 new highs and 52 new lows on the NYSE. The S&P 500 posted 63 new 52-week highs and 3 new lows while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 124 new highs and 91 new lows. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/futures-muted-investors-weigh-trumps-tariff-threats-2024-11-26/

2024-11-26 23:49

Nov 26 (Reuters) - Canada's Barrick Gold (ABX.TO) , opens new tab said on Tuesday the Ontario Superior Court has dismissed a case against the miner brought by Tanzanian residents on security incidents in the country, as the courts lacked jurisdiction to consider the claims. A group of 21 Tanzanian nationals had filed a lawsuit in Canada in November 2022, alleging that Barrick was complicit in extrajudicial killings by police guarding its North Mara mine. Barrick owns a majority stake in North Mara Gold Mine Limited, located in northwest Tanzania, since 2019. The lawsuit claimed that the miner "had effective and practical control" over Tanzanian police stationed at the mine. Barrick said on Tuesday the case should not have been brought in Canada. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/barrick-says-ontario-superior-court-dismisses-2022-tanzanian-security-case-2024-11-26/

2024-11-26 23:35

NPS selling "quite an amount" of dollars in spot market For either FX hedging or portfolio rebalancing purposes Pension fund buys most local stocks since March 2020 In talks with central bank to extend currency swap line SEOUL, Nov 27 (Reuters) - South Korea's pension fund has been selling dollars in the onshore foreign exchange market in recent weeks, capping losses in the won currency as the dollar surges, two sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters. The National Pension Service (NPS), the world's third-largest public pension fund with more than $810 billion in assets, is a major mover of domestic financial markets. "The pension fund is selling dollars in the spot market lately," one source said. "It is seen related to tactical FX hedging or portfolio rebalancing." Another source said the dollar selling this month was likely for portfolio rebalancing purposes. "The pension fund has to sell if the ratio of foreign assets surpasses the target," the person said. The NPS sold "quite an amount" of dollars, they added, without providing further detail. The two sources asked not to be identified due to sensitivity of the matter. The NPS, which typically does not reveal its market-moving investment strategies, declined to comment. The pension fund had until recently been a source of downward pressure on the won for years as it boosted its overseas investments, with estimated outflows of $2-3 billion each month. Its dollar selling comes as the won currency is trading around the psychological threshold of 1,400 per dollar, breaching that level earlier this month for the first time in two years. The dollar has gained strongly across the board since Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election. The won, last quoted 1,396.1 per dollar, has weakened 8% so far in 2024, extending losses for the fourth consecutive year. LOCAL STOCKS UNDERPERFORMING Earlier this month, the benchmark KOSPI index (.KS11) , opens new tab dropped to its lowest level in a year, despite a record-high rally in U.S. stocks. It has fallen 5% so far this year, while the S&P500 has gained 26%. According to the latest disclosure, the NPS held 13.2% of its assets in domestic stocks and 34.2% in foreign stocks at the end of August, compared with its year-end targets of 15.4% and 33.0%, respectively. The pension fund, combined with other smaller ones, has bought KOSPI shares worth 1.9 trillion won ($1.36 billion) so far in November, its biggest purchases since March 2020, according to Korea Exchange data. The NPS hedges up to 5% of its overseas assets if it sees a need to manage foreign exchange risk. It holds assets worth 1,140.1 trillion won, with 55% of the total abroad. It plans to raise the ratio to 60% by 2026 for higher returns, as part of efforts to delay the depletion of the funds amid a fast-ageing population. The NPS and the central bank are currently discussing whether they should extend and expand again their $50 billion foreign exchange swap line, which analysts say is a symbolic market stabilising tool and is set to expire at the end of the year. ($1 = 1,395.0500 won) Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/skorea-pension-fund-recently-selling-dollars-forex-market-sources-say-2024-11-26/

2024-11-26 22:58

NAPERVILLE, Illinois, Nov 26 (Reuters) - Despite its status as the world's most plentiful vegetable oil, palm oil is no longer the cheapest, as supply concerns have pushed up prices by nearly 30% this year. Meanwhile, prices for rival soybean oil have declined more than 11% so far this year, driven by record global soybean output. This has set up a rare discount of soybean oil to palm oil, which has accelerated to near-record levels in recent weeks. Palm oil accounts for about 40% of global output of major vegoils, which include rapeseed and sunflower oil, while soybean oil claims a one-third share. Therefore, palm oil is almost always cheaper than soybean oil, and the average discount over the last decade was around $170 per metric ton. But on Monday, benchmark Malaysian palm oil futures were about $145 more expensive per ton than most-active Chicago soybean oil futures , marking palm’s steepest premium versus soyoil in decades. Palm oil grabbed the vegoil market’s attention three months ago when it became pricier than soy oil, and the premium has only escalated since, owing partly to an output skid in top producer Indonesia. Palm oil is found in a wide range of products including cooking oil, soaps and chocolate. But it has also been increasingly used as a biofuel additive, particularly in the top producing countries, tightening exportable supply. Unlike soybeans which are planted every six months, palm is harvested year-round, meaning that palm production problems can take many months to correct. The recent price inversion may eventually correct, however, since it is very rare for palm oil to sustain a premium to soy oil. The longest such span was about 10 months between 1998 and 1999, linked to reduced palm output off the 1997-98 El Nino. Palm oil’s two-country supply setup does not leave much room for error. Malaysia and Indonesia contribute 83% of the world’s production, and the two countries account for 86% of global exports. Top-two soy oil exporters Argentina and Brazil account for 58% of global shipments, though they produce only 29% of the world’s annual output. China and the United States are the top two soy oil producers, accounting for a combined 47% of market share. The United States had been a key soy oil exporter within the last decade, but the biofuel policy-related surge in domestic prices choked off shipments two years ago. U.S. soy oil export sales now stand at four-year highs for the date, perhaps related to the palm-soy oil price dynamic. Both rapeseed and sunflower oil production are projected to shrink globally in the 2024-25 season, meaning that the palm oil supply squeeze could at least temporarily thrust soybean oil further into the global spotlight and potentially limit downside price risk. Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/soyoil-assumes-power-position-palm-oil-prices-reach-near-record-premium-braun-2024-11-26/