2024-11-25 12:30

NAPERVILLE, Illinois, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Speculators this month established their first bullish Chicago corn stance in over a year, and those views held last week despite weakness across U.S. grain and oilseed markets. CBOT corn futures fell fractionally in the week ended Nov. 19, though money managers increased their net long to 114,628 futures and options contracts from 109,989 a week earlier to fortify their most bullish corn position since February 2023. However, it was not exactly a vote of confidence as the move consisted of both longs and shorts exiting the market, and it was the first time in five weeks that funds reduced gross corn longs. U.S. corn demand remains relatively strong, but traders have been weighing improved weather outlooks for South America and a potentially larger 2025 harvest for rival corn exporter Ukraine. Corn futures drifted slightly lower between Wednesday and Friday, but CBOT soybeans slid 1.5%, reaching one-month lows on Friday. Beans had eased more than 1% in the week ended Nov. 19, and money managers increased their net short to 67,701 soybean futures and options contracts from 54,536 in the prior week, driven by an influx of gross short positions. The world is awash with soybeans and top buyer China has not been as active as some analysts expected, particularly in the U.S. market. Top exporter Brazil is on track for a bumper harvest, keeping pressure on the soybean complex. Money managers have been heavy net sellers of CBOT soybean meal in the latest four weeks. Through Nov. 19, they more than doubled their net short to 63,700 futures and options contracts from 27,631 in the week before. That marks funds’ most bearish meal view since late February 2020, which also contains their record net short of 77,112 contracts. However, their gross meal shorts were the most plentiful on record as of last week. From a technical standpoint, CBOT soymeal has been trading at or near oversold levels for almost a month. In the last couple weeks, meal has held below $300 per short ton, the first such instance since mid-2020. January CBOT soybean oil plunged nearly 7% between Wednesday and Friday as the global vegoil rally cooled. Benchmark Malaysian palm oil futures last week posted their worst weekly losses in 19 months after having surged to two-and-a-half-year highs. CBOT soyoil had already lost 3% in the week ended Nov. 19, and money managers cut their net long by about 19,000 contracts to 56,060 futures and options contracts. Cheap Russian supplies continue to weigh down global wheat prices, and abundant rains in the U.S. Plains have led to an unprecedented improvement in U.S. winter wheat conditions over the last few weeks. Money managers through Nov. 19 pushed their net short in CBOT wheat futures and options to a 12-week high of 51,546 contracts from 45,307 a week earlier. Funds had been doubly as bearish on this date a year ago. CBOT trading volumes could thin out later this week as U.S. markets are closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday. Market watchers will continue to monitor crop progress in South America as well as geopolitical developments, including cooperation between Brazil and China and tensions in the Black Sea. Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/funds-preserve-bullish-cbot-corn-bets-snub-soybeans-wheat-2024-11-25/

2024-11-25 12:20

LUSAKA, Nov 25 (Reuters) - Miners at two copper mines in Zambia were rescued after being trapped underground following a nationwide power outage, the energy ministry said on Monday. Zambia suffered a nationwide blackout following a power system disturbance, the southern African nation's state utility Zesco said on Sunday, which also affected neighbouring Zimbabwe. Zambia and Zimbabwe are experiencing prolonged hours of electricity rationing after the worst drought in decades in the region hit hydropower generation. Zambia's energy permanent secretary Peter Mumba said miners were trapped at Mopani Copper Mines, which is majority owned by United Arab Emirates' International Resources Holding, and at another Chinese mine. He did not say how many miners were trapped but said all of them had been rescued. Supply to all mining companies in Africa's second-largest copper producer was fully restored by around 0130 GMT and by 0400 GMT to the rest of the country, Zesco Acting Managing Director Justin Longo said. Longo said the reason for the outage was being investigated, adding it could not have been caused by power generation at the Kariba dam as the output there was very low. Zambia's largest hydroelectric power plant, the Kariba North Bank Power Station with an installed capacity of 1080 megawatts (MW), is currently producing only 120 MW due to lack of water. "We are just keeping the plant running with one unit, which is not even running at maximum capacity," said Mukupa Mulenga, the station's maintenance manager. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/zambia-miners-rescued-after-nationwide-power-outage-2024-11-25/

2024-11-25 12:16

Nov 25 (Reuters) - Sterling was on track to snap a three-day losing streak on Monday, as the dollar's slide after the selection of fund manager Scott Bessent as U.S. Treasury Secretary lent support to most major currency pairs. The pound firmed 0.4% to $1.2579 after slumping to a six-month low of $1.2475 on Friday after disappointing British business output and retail sales data raised the prospect of more aggressive interest rate cuts by the Bank of England. BoE Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli said on Monday she was more worried about the risk that inflation comes in higher - not lower - than the central bank has forecast as she made the case for only gradual reductions in interest rates. The BoE is expected to be less dovish than the European Central Bank or the Federal Reserve in the face of stubborn inflation. The BoE has lowered rates twice since August to 4.75%, less than that ECB and the Fed. Money markets have priced in nearly 70 basis points of more BoE interest rate reductions by the end of 2025, compared with around 150 bps for the ECB and 70 bps for the Fed. The dollar index retreated from its two-year peak to 106.94 on Monday, consolidating after a strong run on Bessent's nomination for the highest-ranking U.S. economic position. The news spurred bets his appointment would reduce the chance of severe tariffs and keep a lid on deficits, pressuring yields which slightly diminished the dollar's rate appeal. The pound had slipped to 83.37 pence per euro from a two-week high of 82.70 on Friday, after outperforming the euro zone's common currency this month. The fall in sterling has been correlated to the euro since U.S. election, broadly due to dollar strength taking precedence over the data and policy divergence that was more of a theme before the election, Goldman Sachs strategists said in a note. "We still see upside in long sterling expressions versus EUR and Euro-sensitive currencies like SEK (Swedish Krona), where the pound should differentiate itself a bit more on a divergence in domestic prospects including our expectation for growth outperformance and an asymmetric impact from U.S. tariffs." With no major British data scheduled for release this week, focus will be on inflation data out of the U.S. and the euro zone, remarks from BoE speakers. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/sterling-firms-after-3-day-slide-against-sagging-dollar-2024-11-25/

2024-11-25 11:53

MUMBAI, Nov 25 (Reuters) - Vedanta Resources, which postponed a planned sale of dollar bonds last week after the Adani group's top officials were indicted by U.S. prosecutors, will now launch the issue on Monday, according to two sources. The issue, which could raise as much as $500 million, is the first since the Adani crisis and will test global appetite for Indian high yield credit following the allegations against Adani. Adani Group, led by billionaire Gautam Adani, has said the allegations made by the U.S. authorities are "baseless". "Since the Adani crisis has not blown out of proportion after the initial fears, the company deemed fit to go ahead with the issue," a banker with knowledge of the Vedanta sale told Reuters. A second source familiar with the company's plans confirmed the sale would be going ahead. The sources declined to be identified because they were not authorised to speak to the media. Vedanta, which has interests ranging from oil and gas to mining and metals and is headquartered in the UK, did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The notes have two maturities - one for 3.5 years and the other for seven years, for which the company has set an initial price guidance of 10.375% and 11.375%, respectively, the sources said. The notes also have call options. In September, Vedanta Resources raised $900 million in its first dollar bond issue in more than two years at a coupon of 10.875%. Vedanta will use the proceeds from the latest sale to refinance outstanding bonds due in 2028, one of the sources said. Citigroup, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan, and Standard Chartered Bank are the joint global coordinators and lead managers for Vedanta's dollar bond. Citigroup, JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank declined to comment. Barclays and Standard Chartered Bank did not respond to requests for comment. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/vedanta-proceed-with-dollar-bond-sale-first-post-adani-india-credit-test-2024-11-25/

2024-11-25 11:44

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan U.S. Treasury yields slipped back on Monday after Wall Street money manager Scott Bessent got the nod to be the next Treasury Secretary, with markets hoping his take on tax cuts and tariffs may at least be sensitive to edgy investor concerns. Ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday week, President-elect Donald Trump ended intense speculation over the Treasury pick late on Friday and put Bessent forward for the job. While in favor of extending 2017's tax cuts, more tax reform and deregulation, Bessent has been vocal about fiscal control, sees tariff threats mostly as a negotiating tool and supports the dollar's dominant reserve currency status. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal published on Sunday, Bessent said measures would include making Trump's first term tax cuts permanent, as well as eliminating taxes on tips, social-security benefits and overtime pay. Perhaps the biggest relief in debt markets was that his experience as a Wall Street trader would influence his calibration of all those policies if markets got restive. Although he has backed away from the idea since, Bessent did recently advocate undermining the authority of Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell by nominating Powell's successor early and effectively creating a "shadow" Fed boss. The upshot on Monday, however, was that 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields , fell almost 10 basis points from Friday's close to as low as 4.32% and 4.51% respectively before steadying. The drop in yields, along with hopes for a more tempered approach to tariff hikes from the administration at large, saw the dollar retreat, and stock index futures extended Friday's rally ahead of the Monday's bell. The dollar index (.DXY) , opens new tab fell back from Friday's two-year highs, with the euro recovering ground from its sharp plunge late last week. With speculation that China would remain the focus for any U.S. tariff hike campaign - and proposed universal tariff rises more nuanced - European (.STOXXE) , opens new tab and Japanese (.N225) , opens new tab stocks advanced while Chinese mainland (.CSI300) , opens new tab and Hong Kong (.HIS) , opens new tab benchmarks fell again on Monday. Whatever happens under Trump, pressure on China is intense already. The outgoing Joe Biden administration is set to unveil new export restrictions on China this week, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce told members. New regulations could add up to 200 Chinese chip companies to a trade restriction list that bars most U.S. suppliers from shipping goods to the targeted firms, an email from the powerful Washington-based lobbying group said. In Europe, rising economic, trade and geopolitical worries were underscored by the Ifo institute's latest German business survey - which showed morale fell more than expected in November. Last week's divergence in euro zone business surveys showing fresh contraction and another robust U.S. reading were stark. Pressure on the European Central Bank to keep easing monetary policy is building and has kept alive hopes of a rate cut of up to 50bps at next month's final policy meeting of the year. Although ECB chief economist Philip Lane said there was still a way to go to ensure inflation is sustainably back at target, he warned of the dangers of overly tight interest rates. "Monetary policy should not remain restrictive for too long," French newspaper Les Echos quoted Lane as saying on Monday. "Otherwise, the economy will not grow sufficiently and inflation will, I believe, fall below the target." The pressure on European central banks more broadly was spotlighted on Friday when Swiss National Bank boss Martin Schlegel opened up the possibility of a return to negative interest rates if necessary. "Nobody loves negative interest rates, the SNB does not love negative interest rates, but if it is necessary we are ready to take the next step," he said. Back stateside, the strong readings from flash November business surveys and creeping long-term inflation expectations in the University of Michigan's latest household survey saw Fed rate cut bets slip back further. Only two quarter point cuts are now fully priced in futures markets over the coming year. Wednesday's release of the October Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation reading - the Fed's favored gauge - tops the week's data releases ahead of Thursday's holiday. In deals news, Italy's UniCredit (CRDI.MI) , opens new tab dropped 2% on Monday after launching a surprise all-share offer worth 10 billion euros ($10.45 billion) for smaller domestic rival Banco BPM (BAMI.MI) , opens new tab which was up 5%. Commerzbank (CBKG.DE) , opens new tab fell 6% as investors assessed the offer's impact on Unicredit's likely buyout of the German lender. Shares in British broadcaster ITV (ITV.L) , opens new tab jumped 9% on media reports that it could be a takeover target for a team led by CVC Capital Partners. Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Monday: * Dallas Federal Reserve November business survey, Chicago Federal Reserve October national business survey * European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane and Ireland's central bank chief Gabriel Makhlouf speak * US corporate earnings: Agilent Technologies * US Treasury sells $69 billion of 2-year notes * G7 foreign ministers meet in Fiuggi, Italy Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/global-markets-view-usa-2024-11-25/

2024-11-25 11:08

Plan includes lifting Biden's pause on LNG export licenses Trump will seek to expedite drilling permits on federal land Trump to seek to boost sales of offshore oil drilling leases Nov 25 (Reuters) - Donald Trump's transition team is putting together a wide-ranging energy package to roll out within days of his taking office that would approve export permits for new liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects and increase oil drilling off the U.S. coast and on federal lands, according to two sources familiar with the plans. The energy checklist largely reflects promises Trump made on the campaign trail, but the plan to roll out the list as early as day one ensures that oil and gas production will rank alongside immigration as a pillar of Trump's early agenda. Trump, a Republican, also plans to repeal some of his Democratic predecessor's key climate legislation and regulations, such as tax credits for electric vehicles and new clean power plant standards that aim to phase out coal and natural gas, the sources said. An early priority would be lifting President Joe Biden's election-year pause on new export permits for LNG and moving swiftly to approve pending permits, the sources said. Trump would also look to expedite drilling permits on federal lands and quickly reopen five-year drilling plans off the U.S. coast to include more lease sales, the sources said. In a symbolic gesture, Trump would seek to approve the Keystone Pipeline, an issue that was an environmental flashpoint and which was halted after Biden canceled a key permit on his first day in office. But any company looking to build the multibillion-dollar effort to carry Canadian crude oil to the U.S. would need to start from scratch because things like easements have been returned to landowners. "The American people can bank on President Trump using his executive power on day one to deliver on the promises he made to them on the campaign trail," Karoline Leavitt, Trump's transition spokesperson, said in a statement. Many of the elements in the plan would require time to move through Congress or the nation's regulatory system. Trump has promised to declare an energy emergency on his first day in office that could test whether he can bypass those barriers to impose some changes on an accelerated schedule. Trump would also call on Congress to provide new funding so he can replenish the nation's Strategic Petroleum Reserve, established as an emergency crude oil supply and which was depleted under Biden to help manage price spikes caused by the Ukraine crisis and high inflation during the pandemic. Replenishing the reserve would boost short-term oil demand and encourage U.S. production. Trump is also expected to put pressure on the International Energy Agency, the Paris-based energy watchdog that advises industrialized countries on energy policy. Republicans have criticized the IEA's focus on policies to reduce emissions. Trump's advisers have urged him to withhold funding unless the IEA takes a more pro-oil position. "I have pushed Trump in person and his team generally on pressuring the IEA to return to its core mission of energy security and to pivot away from greenwashing," said Dan Eberhart, CEO of oilfield service firm Canary. TRUMP 'PLANS TO GO STRONG' ON LNG Biden put a freeze on new LNG export permits in January to study the environmental impacts, in an election-year move aimed at making gains with the party's green voting blocs. Without the export permits, developers cannot go ahead with multi-year construction plans for new projects. Projects delayed include Venture Global's CP2, Commonwealth LNG, and Energy Transfer's (ET.N) , opens new tab Lake Charles complex, all of which are in Louisiana. The United States is the world's top producer of natural gas, and became the No. 1 exporter of LNG in 2022 as Europe looked to America to wean itself off Russia's vast energy supplies following the invasion of Ukraine. The Biden administration promised to release the environmental study before Trump assumes the White House on Jan. 20, but it would have no influence on the incoming administration, the sources said. "The LNG issue is a lay-up and he plans to go strong on the issue," said one of the sources. There are five U.S. LNG export projects that have been approved by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, but are still awaiting permit approvals at the Department of Energy, federal records show. Biden's pause also halted necessary environmental reviews, portions of which may still be needed for the five pending DOE permits to withstand legal scrutiny. LOOKING TO DRILL OFFSHORE AND ON FEDERAL LANDS Trump would look to accelerate drilling off the U.S. coast and on federal lands. The average time to complete a drilling permit on federal and Indian land averaged 258 days in the first three years of Biden's administration, up from 172 days during the four years of Trump's presidency, according to federal data. Trump is expected to expedite pending permits, hold sales more frequently and offer land that is more likely to deliver oil, the sources said. Despite the lag time in permit approvals, Biden's Interior Department approved more onshore oil drilling permits on average than Trump's first administration, federal records show. Oil output on federal lands and waters hit a record in 2023, while gas production reached its highest level since 2016, according to federal data. Drilling activity on federal lands and waters accounts for about a quarter of U.S. oil production and 12% of gas output. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/trump-prepares-wide-ranging-energy-plan-boost-gas-exports-oil-drilling-sources-2024-11-25/