2024-11-21 05:36

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Ankur Banerjee The prospect of slowing sales growth at AI juggernaut Nvidia and simmering worries over geopolitical tensions are keeping investors on edge but bitcoin keeps marching upward, undeterred, towards $100,000 on bets that Trump 2.0 will be crypto-friendly. Futures indicate that European stock markets are set for a subdued open as investors digest Nvidia's (NVDA.O) , opens new tab projection of its slowest revenue growth in seven quarters. For investors used to the AI darling blowing past all estimates, the numbers proved disappointing. The forecast will likely weigh on suppliers and the broader markets given Nvidia's place at the centre of all things AI, which has driven most of the market gains in recent months. With few economic readings due during the European session, the region's tech stocks (.SX8P) , opens new tab, which had already fallen to three-and-a-half-month lows this week, will likely weigh down the markets on Thursday. Indian conglomerate Adani Group was in the spotlight after its chairman Gautam Adani was indicted in New York over his suspected role in a $265 million bribery scheme, according to U.S. prosecutors. The fallout for the Adani empire, which was rocked by a short-seller attack in February 2023, was immediate, with shares in the conglomerate's listed companies tumbling between 10% and 20%. Its dollar bonds also fell. In the currency markets, the dollar remained on the front foot, with the dollar index hovering close to a one-year high touched last week. The dollar has been on the rise since Donald Trump's decisive victory early this month as investors expect his proposed tariffs will likely be inflationary, keeping U.S. rates higher for longer. The talk of the town though remains bitcoin , which is up about 40% in the two weeks since the election as investors expect the Trump administration to set friendlier regulations for the crypto sector. The biggest cryptocurrency touched a record high of $97,798 in Asian hours, with $100,000 not far off. Key developments that could influence markets on Thursday: Economic events: France business climate for November; euro zone consumer confidence flash for Nov Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/global-markets-view-europe-2024-11-21/

2024-11-21 05:04

Container shipping firms are at the vanguard of the green push Order books reflect uncertainty over supplies of cleaner fuels Dual-fuel LNG ships make up the bulk of container ship orders Shippers invest in other green fuels like methanol, ammonia, hydrogen LOS ANGELES, Nov 21 (Reuters) - Container shipping companies like Maersk (MAERSKb.CO) , opens new tab, CMA CGM and COSCO (601919.SS) , opens new tab have ordered hundreds of new vessels in recent years meant to help their industry slash greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to meet rising demand from customers and regulators around the globe. Their order books, however, reflect uncertainty over which of a wide array of so-called green fuels will become the standard in the decades to come, and whether supplies will be cheap and abundant enough to keep their fleets in motion. Decarbonizing shipping is important to global efforts to fight climate change because it accounts for about 3% of global greenhouse gases, but accomplishing it will be difficult and costly, requiring billions of dollars in investments in new vessels and fuel production. The U.N.'s International Maritime Organization has set a goal to zero out shipping industry emissions by 2050, but policymakers have so far provided little in the way of support or guidance for how companies should get there, leaving the future of the market a mystery. "No single fuel or technology dominates," said Knut Orbeck-Nilssen, CEO of Maritime at Norway-based ship certifier DNV. Faced with that reality, operators of the hulking vessels that ferry thousands of shipping boxes stuffed with furniture, televisions, shoes and toys destined for companies like Walmart (WMT.N) , opens new tab, Amazon (AMZN.O) , opens new tab, IKEA and Nike (NKE.N) , opens new tab are hedging their bets by ramping up orders for hybrid engines designed for several different green fuel types, but which also allow them to fall back on petroleum if those green fuels are unavailable or too costly. Container shipping companies had pending orders for 522 dual-fuel new vessels as of Oct. 31, according to data from DNV. Of those, 303 are designed to run on liquefied natural gas (LNG), 216 are meant to burn methanol, two would use hydrogen, and one would be equipped to use ammonia, according to the data. Rebecca Galanopoulos, senior content analyst at maritime software and services provider Veson Nautical, said 65% of container vessel orders in 2024 were for dual-fuel engines versus just 4% in 2018. "Major shipping players are future-proofing their fleets," she said. GOAL: REPLACE 2.5 BILLION OIL BARRELS The maritime sector each year burns roughly 2.5 billion barrels of heavy fuel oil made from the cheap leftovers of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel production. Decarbonizing the entire shipping industry could cost over $100 billion per year, and double the industry's fuel prices, according to the U.N.'s Conference on Trade and Development. While the container shipping industry's 6,643 vessels account for a small fraction of the global fleet, they have an outsized impact on the climate because they travel faster and consume more fuel than other vessels, shipping experts said. Container shipping companies are now at the vanguard of the green push, having ordered more than twice the number of alternative-fuel vessels than any other cargo sector, like petroleum tankers or bulk carriers, according to DNV. In the meantime, most ships that run on conventional fossil fuel can also run on biodiesel made from used cooking oil and other products. But supplies are forecast to fall far short of what would be needed for the maritime industry. CMA CGM, which counts Walmart as a top customer, is among those that have secured some supplies. The company has notched a 50% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions per container using biodiesel, said Heather Wood, the French carrier's vice president of sustainability. At the same time, the company is adding biomethane, also known as renewable natural gas, to its fuel mix. "We're headed in the right direction. It's just going to be a portfolio of options," said Wood, who added that CMA CGM is investing $15 billion in new vessels that can run on a variety of cleaner fuels. MORE GAS Dual-fuel LNG ships now make up the bulk of container ship orders. Despite being a fossil fuel, LNG can reduce GHG emissions up to 23% because it burns cleaner than traditional ship fuels, according to DNV. Environmentalists and climate scientists are far less enthusiastic though, because producing, transporting and using LNG can lead to leaks of methane, a potent planet-warming gas, into the atmosphere. The same is true for renewable natural gas, captured from decomposing animal and plant waste. Switzerland's MSC, the industry leader with a fleet of more than 800 owned and chartered ships, says LNG has a relatively certain and reliable supply chain compared with other lower-carbon shipping fuels. And, like most of its peers, it has been ordering dual-fuel LNG vessels. Germany's Hapag-Lloyd (HLAG.DE) , opens new tab earlier this year won a two-year contract to provide waste-based biomethane-powered shipping for the Zero Emission Maritime Buyers Alliance that includes major shippers like Amazon, IKEA, and Nike. Jo Friedmann, a vice president of supply chain research at Rystad Energy, said transition fuels like LNG could "play quite a big role until 2035 or 2040." CARRIERS 'LEAN IN' Meanwhile, executives are clamoring for global regulations that would create more certainty and promote investment in the green fuel market for decades to come. They want global deadlines for phasing out dirty fuels, government incentives for lower-carbon fuel production and use, and penalties for late adopters of cleaner fuels. And, several companies are making investments in other alternative fuels like green methanol and ammonia, hydrogen-based fuels produced using power from renewable sources like solar and wind. CMA CGM, Denmark's Maersk, Taiwan's Evergreen (2603.TW) , opens new tab and China's COSCO are buying ships that can run on green methanol. COSCO and CMA CGM, meanwhile, are working on a project to procure, supply and deliver green methanol at major ports in China. And MSC is equipping an undisclosed portion of its new LNG vessels with ammonia-compatible tanks. "We could sit back and see which comes first, or you can lean in" to green fuel investments, Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc said earlier this year at the Los Angeles naming event for one of its green methanol ships, Alette Maersk. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/container-shippers-hedging-green-transition-with-dual-fuel-vessel-orders-2024-11-21/

2024-11-21 05:01

MUMBAI, Nov 21 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee weakened to its all-time low on Thursday, pressured by likely foreign outflows from local stocks and renewed strength in the dollar as investors tempered hopes of aggressive rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The rupee declined to a low of 84.4275 in early trading, eclipsing its previous all-time low of 84.42. It was quoted at 84.4175 as of 10:30 a.m. IST, nearly flat on the day. Likely intervention by the Reserve Bank of India helped the currency limit its losses, with traders citing strong dollar offers from state-run banks. Benchmark Indian equity indexes, the BSE Sensex (.BSESN) , opens new tab and Nifty 50 (.NSEI) , opens new tab were down about 0.7% each. Indian equities were pressured by sharp declines in the shares of Adani Group's listed entities after its billionaire chairman was indicted in New York over his involvement in an alleged multibillion-dollar bribery and fraud scheme. Shares of the group's listed entities were down across the board, with the flagship firm Adani Enterprises (ADEL.NS) , opens new tab slumping 20% and Adani Green (ADNA.NS) , opens new tab shedding 18%. Meanwhile, the dollar's recovery on Wednesday following a three-day losing streak also kept the rupee on the defensive. The dollar index was at 106.5 after rising 0.4% on Wednesday, while the rupee's Asian peers were mostly rangebound. Cautious remarks from Fed officials dented expectations of aggressive rate cuts. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman on Wednesday expressed discomfort with the central bank cutting interest rates while inflation continues to run above its target. Odds of a December rate cut by the Fed have declined to 52% from 82% a week earlier, according to CME's FedWatch tool. Heightened geopolitical risks triggered by the Ukraine-Russia conflict also supported the greenback. "Markets need to monitor the dangerous escalation in the Ukraine-Russia war, now driven by increased military engagements from both sides, strategic policy shifts, and heightened international involvement," DBS Bank said in a note. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/rupee-hits-record-low-hurt-by-weak-local-equities-buoyant-dollar-2024-11-21/

2024-11-21 04:18

Bitcoin has doubled this year, up 40% since US election Trump, pro-crypto Congress seen clearing regulatory clouds Crypto-related stocks surging SINGAPORE/LONDON/NEW YORK, Nov 21 (Reuters) - Bitcoin came within a whisker of closing above $100,000 for the first time on Thursday as the election of Republican Donald Trump as U.S. president spurred expectations that his administration will create a friendly regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies. The world's largest cryptocurrency was trading between $98,000 and $99,000 in late afternoon trading in the U.S. on Thursday, after briefly touching $99,073. Bitcoin has more than doubled in value this year and is up about 40% in the two weeks since Trump was voted in as the next U.S. president and a slew of pro-crypto lawmakers were elected to Congress. Trump embraced digital assets during his campaign, promising to make the United States the "crypto capital of the planet" and to accumulate a national stockpile of bitcoin. Crypto investors see an end to increased scrutiny under U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler, whom Trump has said he will replace. Trump also unveiled a new crypto business, World Liberty Financial, in September. Although details about the business have been scarce, investors have taken his personal interest in the sector as a bullish signal. Billionaire Elon Musk, a major Trump ally, is also a proponent of cryptocurrencies. Over 16 years after its creation, bitcoin appears on the cusp of mainstream acceptance. "Everyone who’s bought bitcoin at any point in history is currently in profit," Alicia Kao, managing director of crypto exchange KuCoin, said. "But those who bought it early, when there were significant obstacles to doing so and there was the might of the world’s financial and governmental forces intent on crushing it, are the real winners. Not because they’re rich, but because they’re right.” Bitcoin's rebound from a slide below $16,000 in late 2022 has been rapid, boosted by the approval of U.S.-listed bitcoin exchange-traded funds in January this year. The Securities and Exchange Commission had long attempted to block ETFs from investing in bitcoin, citing investor protection concerns, but the products have allowed more investors, including institutional investors, to gain exposure to bitcoin. CRYPTO RUSH More than $4 billion has streamed into U.S.-listed bitcoin exchange-traded funds since the election. This week, there was a strong debut for options on BlackRock's ETF (IBIT.O) , opens new tab, with call options - bets on the price going up - more popular than puts. "There is a persistent bid in the market," said Joe McCann, CEO and founder of Asymmetric, a digital assets hedge fund in Miami. "$100,000 is a foregone conclusion." Crypto-related stocks have soared along with the bitcoin price and shares in bitcoin miner MARA Holdings (MARA.O) , opens new tab were up nearly 2.3% on Thursday. “Once you break out to new highs, you attract a lot of new capital," John LaForge, head of real asset strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, said. "It's like gold in the 1970s, where this new high is in a price discovery mode. You don't know how high it's going to go," he said. Yet the rise is not without critics. Two years ago, the industry was wracked by scandal with the collapse of the FTX crypto exchange and the jailing of its founder Sam Bankman-Fried. The cryptocurrency industry also has been criticized for its energy usage, with miners under scrutiny over their potential impact on power grids and greenhouse gas emissions due to their energy-intensive operations. Crypto crime also remains a concern, with an analysis by crypto researchers Chainalysis finding that at least $24.2 billion worth of crypto was sent to illicit wallet addresses last year, including addresses identified as sanctioned or linked to terrorist financing and scams. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/technology/bitcoin-breaks-95000-first-time-optimism-over-trump-crypto-plans-2024-11-21/

2024-11-21 03:17

SINGAPORE, Nov 21 (Reuters) - Dollar bond prices for Adani companies fell sharply in early Asia trade on Thursday after the Indian conglomerate's billionaire chairman was indicted in New York over allegations of bribery and fraud. Prices for Adani Port and Special Economic Zone (APSE.NS) , opens new tab debt maturing in August 2027 fell more than five cents on the dollar, according to LSEG data. Adani Electricity Mumbai debt maturing in February 2030 fell nearly eight cents and dollar bonds issued by Adani Transmission also notched falls larger than five cents to trade just above 80 cents. The price falls were the biggest since February 2023 when short-seller Hindenburg Research published a negative report, questioning the group's debt levels and use of tax havens. U.S. authorities said on Wednesday that Adani Group Chairman Gautam Adani and seven other defendants agreed to pay about $265 million in bribes to Indian government officials. Adani Group did not immediately respond to requests for comment outside business hours in India. Shares in India-listed Adani companies begin trade at 0345 GMT. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/adani-dollar-bonds-tumble-after-us-bribery-charges-2024-11-21/

2024-11-21 02:52

MUMBAI, Nov 21 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is likely to stay under pressure on Thursday as the prospect of less aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical risks from the Ukraine-Russia conflict renewed strength in the U.S. dollar. The one-month non-deliverable forward indicated that the rupee will open at 84.40-84.41 to the U.S. dollar, compared with 84.4150 on Tuesday. Indian financial markets were shut for a holiday on Wednesday. The rupee declined to its all-time low of 84.42 on Tuesday, with likely intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) helping it avert deeper losses. The dollar index was little changed at 106.5 after rising 0.4% on Wednesday, snapping a three-day losing streak, as investors pared hopes for aggressive Fed rate cuts and awaited more clarity on U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's policies. The odds of a December rate cut by the Fed have declined to 52%, down from 82% last week, according to CME's FedWatch tool. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions were heightened after Ukraine fired a volley of British Storm Shadow missiles into Russia on Wednesday, a day after it sent American missiles into Russian territory for the first time. The dollar's recovery will "certainly weigh on the rupee," but the extent of weakness in the currency will yet again depend on what the RBI is willing to allow, a trader at a state-run bank said. Persistent outflows from Indian stocks and bonds have also put pressure on the rupee, with overseas investors pulling out nearly $4 billion from local assets so far in November, adding to $11.5 billion in outflows last month. While most regional currencies have been consolidating against the dollar this week, "we think any reprieve for Asian currencies could prove to be temporary," MUFG Bank said in a note. KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 84.52; onshore one-month forward premium at 12.50 paisa ** Dollar index at 106.54 ** Brent crude futures up 0.5% at $73.1 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.4% ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $240.3 million worth of Indian shares on Nov. 18 ** NSDL data shows foreign investors sold a net $160.3 million worth of Indian bonds on Nov. 18 Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/cautious-fed-outlook-geopolitical-risks-keep-rupee-defensive-2024-11-21/