2024-11-17 21:52

Nov 18 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets. Asian markets could be in for a rocky ride on Monday, as rising U.S. bond yields, a surging dollar and a wobble on Wall Street on Friday call into question the wisdom of buying local assets. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments on Thursday - that the central bank is in no rush to lower interest rates - continue to reverberate around world markets. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield on Friday hit 4.50% for the first time in over five months, and Wall Street fell. The Nasdaq lost more than 2% and has fallen four days in a row - the last time it did that was in April. The MSCI World equity index has also fallen four days in a row, its longest losing streak since the first week of September, while the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index lost 4.35%, its biggest weekly decline since June, 2022. If that wasn't enough for emerging market investors, they are having to grapple with an extraordinary rally in the U.S. dollar. The dollar index last week leapt 1.6%, hit its highest in over a year, and recorded a seventh weekly rise in a row. It is no doubt due for a correction, but momentum is strong and it looks like it will take some bravery and conviction to stand in its way right now. Goldman Sachs's emerging market financial conditions index last week spiked to a three and a half month high. Against that potent mix of strong U.S. economic data, yields and dollar, it's no surprise emerging markets are struggling. Citing EPFR Global data, strategists at Barclays note that emerging market funds have now posted outflows five weeks in a row, with bond fund outflows particularly strong. Asia's calendar on Monday is fairly light, with the main highlights likely to be New Zealand producer prices, Singapore non-oil trade figures, Japanese machinery orders, earnings from Mitsubishi UFJ, and GDP data from Thailand , opens new tab. Economists polled by Reuters expect Thailand's growth accelerated to a 2.6% annual rate from 2.3% in the April-June period. That would be the fastest pace of growth in one-and-a-half years. The Thai baht has been one of the better-performing Asian currencies against the dollar this year, down only 1.3% year-to-date, and markets are expecting less than 50 basis points of Bank of Thailand easing by the end of next year. Strained U.S.-Sino relations remain in the spotlight, after China's President Xi Jinping told his U.S. counterpart Joe Biden that the issues of Taiwan, democracy, human rights and rights to development are "red lines" for China and not to be challenged. But Xi also said China is ready to work with the new U.S. administration to "maintain communication, expand cooperation and manage differences." Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Monday: - Thailand GDP (Q3) - Japan machinery orders (September) - G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro begins Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/global-markets-view-asia-graphic-2024-11-17/

2024-11-17 21:30

MANAUS, Brazil Nov 17 (Reuters) - Democratic U.S. President Joe Biden aims to finalize a rule on a clean fuel tax credit before leaving office on Jan. 20, a senior White House official said on Sunday. The clean fuel program, which would provide credits for the production of sustainable aviation fuel and other lower-emission transportation fuels, is set to begin in 2025. "I'm not going to make any announcements, except that we're working very hard to finish the rules," the official told reporters. The official did not guarantee that the work would be complete. The Biden administration also plans to release a study on the environmental and economic impacts of liquefied natural gas before Jan. 20, the official said. Biden early this year ordered a pause in new approvals of LNG exports in order to conduct the study. President-elect Donald Trump, a Republican, has said he will reverse the pause quickly in his second term. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-aims-finalize-clean-fuel-rule-before-leaving-white-house-2024-11-17/

2024-11-17 19:30

BUENOS AIRES, Nov 17 (Reuters) - French President Emmanuel Macron said that a major Russian air barrage against Ukraine on Sunday showed that Russian President Vladimir Putin "does not want peace and is not ready to negotiate". The priority for France was to "equip, support and help Ukraine to resist", Macron told reporters as he prepared to leave Argentina to attend the G20 Summit in Brazil. He declined to comment on German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's call with Putin on Friday, adding that Ukraine's allies "must remain united .... on an agenda for genuine peace, that is to say, a peace that does not mean Ukraine's surrender". Regarding trade talks between the European Union and the Mercosur bloc, Macron reiterated France's opposition to a deal due to concerns over agricultural imports from South America that do not meet European standards. But Macron said Argentine President Javier Milei also expressed dissatisfaction to him with the current terms of the trade accord, reached in 2019 but never ratified as France objected. "I come out of this meeting with the belief that we're not there yet and I would like to reassure our farmers," Macron said after meeting Milei on Sunday. The EU-Mercosur talks have led French farmers to plan nationwide protests from Monday. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/frances-macron-says-strikes-ukraine-show-putin-does-not-want-peace-2024-11-17/

2024-11-17 18:52

TEGUCIGALPA, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Slow-moving Tropical Depression Sara unleashed major rainfall over Honduras this weekend, causing at least one death while forcing thousands to flee their homes and destroying bridges and a highway due to flooding, officials said on Sunday. Airports in the capital Tegucigalpa and industrial hub San Pedro Sula were shuttered, according to civil aviation officials. Sara churned to the northwest where it made landfall on neighboring Belize on Sunday, home to ancient ruins, beach resorts and coral reefs popular with tourists. It also threatened major flooding and swollen rivers. The center of the storm is currently located some 55 miles (88 km) west of Belize City, the tiny Caribbean nation's commercial hub, according to the latest report from the U.S. National Hurricane Center. The government urged locals to hold Sunday religious services remotely while announcing that all schools would be suspended on Monday as a precaution. The NHC on Sunday downgraded the storm to a Tropical Depression from a Tropical Storm, and said it expects it to weaken as it moves further inland over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The Miami-based forecaster estimates Sara's maximum sustained winds at 35 miles per hour (55 kph), and its northwesterly movement at only 8 mph (13 kph). In a report, Honduran risk management officials added that more than 71,000 people had been impacted by the storm, with around 4,000 evacuated from homes and relocated to shelters. At least 251 communities were listed as cut off from communications as more rain continued to fall Sunday over much of the country, especially eastern and southern areas. At a virtual press conference, Belize Chief Meteorologist Ronald Gordon noted that some 12 inches (30 cm) of rain hit the central coastal town of Dangriga, south of Belize City, while stressing the risk of localized flooding. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/tropical-depression-sara-drenches-honduras-closes-airports-least-one-dead-2024-11-17/

2024-11-17 13:59

Semiconductor company's quarterly report on Nov. 20 Nvidia is AI poster child, largest firm by market value S&P 500 up 23% in 2024, but pulled back this week NEW YORK, Nov 15 (Reuters) - Nvidia Corp's results in the coming week could guide the U.S. stock market on its next path, as investors turn their focus to the technology sector and artificial intelligence trade after an election-fueled rally stalled. A nearly 800% run in shares of Nvidia (NVDA.O) , opens new tab over the past two years, driven by its gold standard AI business, has propelled the semiconductor company to the world's top spot by market value. That heft gives Nvidia huge sway in market benchmarks, such as the S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab and Nasdaq 100 (.NDX) , opens new tab, while its results on Nov. 20 will also be a gauge for the market's appetite for tech stocks, the AI trade and sentiment for equities broadly, investors said. The benchmark S&P 500 has pulled back from record highs following the Nov. 5 U.S. election that gave Donald Trump a second term as president and his fellow Republicans control of Congress. Markets are "looking for direction right now," said Garrett Melson, portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers. "If those results are pretty strong, that tells you that there's still momentum behind that investment and that trade and I think that helps to broaden out risk appetite." Nvidia's dominant AI position has catapulted its share price and led to an astonishing financial performance. For its fiscal third quarter, the company is expected to post net income of $18.4 billion as revenue jumped over 80% to $33 billion, according to LSEG data. However, after soaring past analysts' earnings estimates last year, Nvidia's surprises have become more modest, with earnings beating by 6% in its most recently reported quarter, LSEG data showed. "It's getting harder to hurdle those expectations," said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott. Nvidia's results cap a mixed third-quarter earnings season for U.S. companies. S&P 500 earnings are on pace to have risen 8.8% from a year earlier, with 76% of companies beating estimates compared to an average of 79% in the past four quarters, according to LSEG IBES data. As in recent quarters, results from Nvidia and a small group of other megacap tech and related companies are carrying the load. Those so-called Magnificent 7 companies, which also include Apple (AAPL.O) , opens new tab and Microsoft (MSFT.O) , opens new tab, are expected to have increased earnings by 30% in the third quarter compared to 4.3% for the other 493 companies in the index, said Tajinder Dhillon, senior research analyst at LSEG. "It's really the Mag 7 led by Nvidia that's done the heavy lifting to address the kind of earnings growth that has supported the advance we've seen in stock prices," Luschini said. Nvidia's results may also be crucial to support the broader market's lofty valuation, with the S&P 500's forward price-to-earnings ratio above 22 times and near its highest level in more than three years, according to LSEG Datastream. The benchmark index is up 23% this year. Trump's victory initially sparked broad stock gains on optimism about his agenda of lower taxes and deregulation. But stocks have pulled back this week as markets continue to digest the implications from the election. Investors will keep focus on Trump's transition plans, including his picks for key cabinet roles, after some of his initial appointees drove weakness in areas of the market such as pharmaceutical and defense shares. Stocks also fell after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Thursday that the central bank does not need to rush to lower interest rates, which will keep monetary policy at the forefront for markets in coming weeks. "Given that the stock market has become so expensive, the fact that the Fed is signaling that they're not going to be as accommodative as they had indicated before the election ... will create at least some headwinds in the days and weeks ahead," Matthew Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak, said in a note on Friday. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/wall-st-week-ahead-nvidia-results-focus-stock-markets-election-boost-stalls-2024-11-15/

2024-11-17 12:19

Austria's OMV not receiving Gazprom's gas for second day OMV seeks to recover damages from Gazprom Slovakia says still great interest in Russian gas Data shows Russian transit via Ukraine steady BERLIN/PRAGUE/LONDON, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Russian gas flows to Austria were suspended for a second day on Sunday because of a pricing dispute, but other buyers in Europe stepped in to snap up unsold volumes, companies and sources said and data showed. Russia, which before the Ukraine war was the biggest single supplier of gas to Europe, has lost most of its buyers on the continent as the EU tries to cut its dependence on Russian energy. Russian gas is still being sold in significant volumes to Slovakia and Hungary, as well as to the Czech Republic which does not have a direct contract. Smaller volumes are going to Italy and Serbia. Gazprom (GAZP.MM) , opens new tab on Saturday halted supplies to OMV (OMVV.VI) , opens new tab after the Austrian company threatened to impound some of the Russian state firm's gas as compensation for an arbitration it had won over a contractual dispute. Flows to Austria were still suspended on Sunday but the overall daily supply to Europe via Ukraine - the main transit route for Russian gas to the EU - would remain at 42.4 million cubic metres per day, Gazprom confirmed, around the same volume as usual. It did not comment further. Austria had been receiving 17 mcm per day before the cut-off, and those volumes are now finding new buyers in Europe. Slovak state-owned firm SPP said it was still receiving gas from Russia and suggested others were buying more because there was still "great interest" in Russian gas in Europe. A source familiar with Russian gas supplies in Europe said gas was still cheaper from Russia than from many other sources, so Austrian volumes had quickly been resold. He declined to name the companies which bought gas previously destined for Austria. Austria has said it has plentiful gas stocks to cover the shortfall and can import from Germany and Italy when needed. LAST DAYS The European gas market has been sensitive to geopolitical developments and supply issues, with the end of Ukraine gas transit expected at the end of the year. Colder temperatures in Europe have also been driving up heating demand, leading to withdrawals from EU gas storage sites earlier than last year. "Supply and weather drivers have created concerns about end-of-winter gas stocks which, given the EU's storage targets, might imply a need to buy significant (liquefied natural gas) volumes in the summer," BNP Paribas senior commodities strategist Aldo Spanjer said. The front-month gas price at the Dutch TTF hub, the European benchmark price, closed at 45.72 euros per megawatt hour on Friday, its highest in nearly a year. At its peak Russia was supplying 35% of Europe's gas, but since the Ukraine war started in 2022 Gazprom has lost market share to Norway, the U.S. and Qatar. The company's remaining flows to Europe are not expected to continue for much longer, with the Soviet-era pipeline via Ukraine due to shut at the end of this year as Kyiv does not want to extend a transit agreement. The Yamal-Europe pipeline via Belarus has already closed after a dispute, while Russia blamed the U.S. and Britain for explosions under the Baltic Sea that closed the Nord Stream route. Washington and London have denied they blew up the pipelines. The Wall Street Journal has reported Ukrainian officials were behind the attack. Kyiv has denied that. If Ukraine closes the gas transit route, significant Russian supplies will mainly go to Slovakia and Hungary, which gets most of its volumes via a pipeline running mostly through Turkey. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/russia-resells-more-gas-europe-after-cutting-off-austria-sources-data-show-2024-11-17/