2024-11-14 11:22

Sees supply exceeding demand by over 1 mln bpd in 2025 IEA raises 2024 demand growth forecast by 60,000 bpd Leaves 2025 demand growth projection steady at 990,000 bpd LONDON, Nov 14 (Reuters) - Global oil supply will exceed demand in 2025 even if OPEC+ cuts remain in place, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday, as rising production from the United States and other outside producers outpaces sluggish demand. The prospect of a more than 1 million barrels per day (bpd) excess supply - equal to over 1% of world output - is a headwind for OPEC+, which comprises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia - in its plan to start raising output. Oil demand growth has been weaker than expected this year in large part because of China. After driving rises in oil consumption for years, economic challenges and a shift towards electric vehicles are tempering oil growth prospects in the world's second-largest consumer. "China's marked slowdown has been the main drag on demand," the IEA said in its monthly oil market report. "Rapid deployment of clean energy technologies is also increasingly displacing oil in transport and power generation, adding downward pressure to otherwise weak demand drivers," the report added. The Paris-based agency left its 2025 oil demand growth forecast little changed at 990,000 bpd. At the same time, it expects non-OPEC+ nations to boost supply by 1.5 million bpd, driven by the United States, Canada, Guyana and Argentina - more than the rate of demand growth. Next year's surplus, as forecast by the IEA, could make it harder for OPEC+ to bring back production. Earlier this month, OPEC+ again postponed a plan to start easing output cuts amid falling prices. "Our current balances suggest that even if the OPEC+ cuts remain in place, global supply exceeds demand by more than 1 million bpd next year," the IEA said. Oil prices traded slightly weaker after the report was released, with Brent crude trading below $73 a barrel. 2024 DEMAND UP The IEA also made a slight upward adjustment to its 2024 oil demand growth forecast of 60,000 bpd on the month to 920,000 bpd, on higher than expected gasoil demand. "The sub-1 million bpd growth pace for both years reflects below-par global economic conditions with the post-pandemic release of pent-up demand now complete," the IEA said. Forecasts on the strength of demand growth in 2024 vary widely, partly due to differences over demand from China and the pace of the world's switch to cleaner fuels, and the IEA's view is at the lower end of industry estimates. OPEC, which is at the top end, on Tuesday cut its demand growth forecasts for this year and next, but still expects much more rapid growth than the IEA of 1.82 million bpd and 1.54 million bpd, respectively. According to the IEA, Chinese demand growth is set to reach just 140,000 bpd this year, a tenth of the 1.4 million bpd demand growth of 2023. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iea-sees-2025-oil-market-supply-surplus-2024-11-14/

2024-11-14 11:07

Trump's victory paves way for crypto policy overhaul Industry seeks crypto-friendly SEC chair and banking access Trump has pledged to create a crypto advisory council Bitcoin soars amid policy optimism, could hit $100,000 Coinbase, others spent more than $119 mln backing pro-crypto congressional candidates Nov 14 (Reuters) - The crypto industry is pushing for an ambitious raft of policies that would promote the widespread adoption of digital assets and considering who best to promote them, as they anticipate a cryptocurrency-friendly regime under President-elect Donald Trump. While crypto companies were already anticipating a lighter touch with a new administration, Donald Trump's decisive victory and a projected Republican sweep of Congress pave the way for a dramatic and lasting crypto policy overhaul. Trump courted crypto cash with promises to be a "crypto president," and industry executives say he now has a strong mandate to deliver. The industry is now pushing for measures including potential executive orders on crypto firms' access to banking services and crypto-friendly picks in a range of roles, in addition to a new Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) chair, executives said. "We've had an administration that's been very negative, and so we're looking forward to unlocking that gridlock," said Mike Belshe, CEO of institutional crypto platform BitGo, who hosted a campaign fundraiser for Trump in July. "I think the voters of America said very clearly that they want to see that." Bitcoin soared above $90,000 on Wednesday amid rising policy optimism, with some analysts predicting the world's largest token could hit $100,000. While some industry asks could happen quickly such as pro-crypto nominees at financial regulatory agencies, others however could take longer, such as passing legislation to create a regulatory framework for digital assets. Trump has also pledged to create a crypto advisory council. While it's unclear who might serve on the council, crypto executives are brainstorming who to elevate as key leaders in crafting crypto policy in the new administration. "Everybody in Washington is asking and thinking about ... who's going to lead these agencies," said Kara Calvert, head of U.S. policy at Coinbase (COIN.O) , opens new tab. "It's important I think for companies like Coinbase, but also for all the smaller startups... to have a point of view." Jonathan Jachym, global head of policy at crypto exchange Kraken, said the industry was considering who would be suitable for leadership positions to drive policy. "Before the election, investors were already betting on options that the price of bitcoin would exceed $80k or even $100k, and the value of these bets has risen," Grzegorz Drozdz, analyst at Conotoxia wrote, adding the election outcome was mostly driving those bets. Under the Biden administration, the SEC and Treasury cracked down on crypto companies for allegedly violating securities and anti-money laundering laws, while bank regulators discouraged lenders from dabbling in crypto, and Congress has failed to pass legislation that would help promote mainstream crypto adoption. With Republicans running Washington, all that could change. The crypto industry expects Trump to make good on his July promise to establish a strategic U.S. bitcoin reserve - one of his more ambitious pledges executives said they now see as a real possibility. "It legitimizes the asset class more," said Marshall Beard, Chief Operating Officer of Gemini, the crypto exchange whose founders, the Winklevoss twins, donated to Trump. The industry also expects Trump's bank regulators to take a softer stance on crypto. Many crypto firms have struggled to find banking partners amid scrutiny from regulators worried about the risks, especially following the collapse of crypto-friendly U.S. lenders last year. Jachym said there had been "negative pressure" from bank regulators on crypto relationships, which could change if lawmakers created a new crypto framework. Trump in July promised he would not let banks "choke" crypto companies out of the traditional financial system, and some executives speculated the president-elect could even address the issue with an executive order. "Something like that from the White House could go a long way towards fixing the problem," said Kristin Smith, chief executive of the Blockchain Association, a crypto trade group. Earlier in the campaign, crypto firms had hoped Trump's new SEC chair would create a waiver regime for crypto companies, but firms are now discussing pushing for faster "no-action" letters that the agency could immediately use to allow crypto companies to operate without fear of reprisal, one executive said. Smith added the industry is also preparing a fresh push for crypto-friendly laws. With Republicans expected to take the House, they could expedite spending bills with a simple majority vote - a process called "reconciliation" which often allows smaller items to piggy-back on must-pass spending bills. That could be "a pathway for getting something done," said Smith. Coinbase (COIN.O) , opens new tab and other cryptocurrency companies spent more than $119 million backing pro-crypto congressional candidates, many of whom won their races, including Ohio Republican Bernie Moreno. He took a key Senate seat from Democratic crypto skeptic Sherrod Brown, paving the way for other potentially sweeping legislation, said executives. Calvert said the 2025 Congress will be "the most pro-crypto Congress in history." Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/crypto-industry-pushes-policy-sea-change-after-trump-victory-2024-11-14/

2024-11-14 11:03

Nov 14 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets by Amanda Cooper. The dollar is forging ahead again, heading for its biggest week-on-week gain since September last year, up 2.37% since last Thursday, while Wall Street looks set to open modestly higher thanks to what for now looks like win-win inflation numbers. Wednesday's data showed consumer price pressures remain stubbornly above the Federal Reserve's target rate of 2%. And yet markets rushed to price in an 82% chance that the central bank will cut rates by another quarter point on Dec. 18, up from around 65% two days earlier. They're also pricing in the possibility that inflation will accelerate under the incoming Trump administration as the president-elect has promised a cocktail of tax cuts, lower immigration and higher trade tariffs. Granted, October's jobs report looked grim on the surface - with growth of just 20,000 - but the figure had been widely expected, given disruptions from two devastating hurricanes, plus a swathe of labor strikes. At the same time, the dollar has surged to a one-year high against a basket of currencies on the 'best-of-both worlds' premise that U.S. growth will benefit from a looser fiscal regime, even as inflation rises. Ordinarily, if the chances of a rate cut rise above 80% from nearer 60% just 24 hours earlier, the dollar would fall sharply. But investors are latching on more to the longer-term view that ultimately, King Dollar will rule supreme under Trump. Investors and economists alike will be tweaking their models to factor all this into what it might mean for next month's nonfarm payrolls. Another big below-forecast number might get some alarm bells ringing about the outlook for economic growth, while a big beat would theoretically see those hefty bets on a quarter-point cut in December get wound down, thereby giving the dollar another boost. Today's weekly jobless claims will capture what happened in the week to Nov 7. Economists polled by Reuters expect first-time claims for jobless benefits to have risen by 223,000, from 221,000 in the week to Oct. 31, well below mid-October's 16-month high of 258,000. The Bureau of Labor Statistics conducts its survey for the monthly employment report in the week that contains the 12th of the month - the current week. Continued claims are running around 1.89 million, near their highest since February, but still within the 1.5-1.9 million range that has prevailed for the last two years. Fed Chair Jerome Powell addresses an event in Dallas later on, when he is due to discuss the economic outlook. Initial weekly jobless claims - unless they're eye-popping in either direction - are unlikely to feature, but Powell's take on the market's assessment of the chances of a December cut, as well as October's weak nonfarm payrolls, will. This could go some way towards shaking the market out of its current conviction that rate cuts and a lack of rate cuts are, at the same time, positive for the dollar and the stock market. Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Thursday: * Initial weekly jobless claims: 0830 ET/1330 GMT * October Producer Price Index: 0830 ET/1330 GMT * Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks on the economic outlook in Dallas: 1400 CST/1500 EST/2000 GMT * Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler speaks on "Central Bank Independence and Economic Outlook" in Montevideo, Uruguay. * Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin speaks on the economy in Washington * Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams gives keynote at "Intermediating Impact: Making Missing Markets" event hosted by the New York Fed. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/global-markets-view-usa-2024-11-14/

2024-11-14 10:56

BUDAPEST, Nov 14 (Reuters) - Car plants under construction by Chinese BYD and Germany's BMW (BMWG.DE) , opens new tab are expected to start production in Hungary in the second half of 2025, which could help boost the country's economy, Prime Minister Viktor Orban's chief of staff said on Thursday. Under Orban, Hungary has become an important trade and investment partner for China, in contrast with some other EU nations that are considering becoming less dependent on the world's second-largest economy. In Europe, Germany is Hungary's main trading partner with several car plants already operating in the country. Orban has also spearheaded a drive in central Europe to bring Chinese EV and battery manufacturing plants to Hungary. However, Hungary's economy dipped into a technical recession in the third quarter as it contracted by 0.7% from the previous three months, weighed down by weakness in farming, industry and construction. This is a problem for the Hungarian leader as he seeks to revive the economy ahead of a 2026 national election where he is facing an unprecedented challenge from a new opposition party. "The optimism for next year's economic policy is supported by current developments, the new plants of BYD and BMW are going to start production next year, in the second half of next year," his chief of staff Gergely Gulyas told a briefing. One of the biggest Chinese investors in Hungary, CATL, is building a 7.3 billion euro battery plant in the eastern city of Debrecen, while Chinese EV maker BYD announced last year it was building its first European plant in Szeged in the south of the country. BMW is building a car plant in Debrecen, The government expects Hungary's economy to grow by 3.4% in 2025. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/new-byd-bmw-car-plants-hungary-start-production-h2-2025-2024-11-14/

2024-11-14 10:14

MUMBAI, Nov 14 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee slipped to its weakest closing level on record on Thursday but fared better than its regional peers as state-run banks' dollar sales countered a surging greenback and weakness in local stocks. The rupee closed at 84.3950 against the U.S. dollar, down marginally from its close at 84.3775 in the previous session. The currency was nearly unchanged week-on-week. The dollar has surged since Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election, hurting emerging market assets. Trump's likely tariffs and immigration policies could fuel inflation, potentially slowing and curtailing U.S. rate cuts. On the day, the dollar index rose 0.4% to its highest in a year at 106.92 while Asian currencies declined between 0.1% to 0.7%. While dollar strength has weighed on emerging market currencies, the rupee has fared better than most Asian peers over November, helped by interventions by the Reserve Bank of India. The Indian currency is down 0.4% on the month while the Thai baht and offshore Chinese yuan have weakened by 2.7% and 1.5%, respectively. India's merchandise trade deficit in October widened more than expected to $27.14 billion, data released on Thursday showed. Investors await remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell later in the day for cues on the future path of Fed policy rates. "A positioning-led correction in USD may fail to take DXY back below 106.0, and interest in buying the dollar dips will likely emerge soon," ING Bank said in a note. Indian financial markets are closed on Friday for a local holiday. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/rupee-slips-record-closing-low-fares-better-than-asian-peers-2024-11-14/

2024-11-14 07:58

US dollar scales one-year peak US PPI data due at 1330 GMT Fed Chair Powell due to speak later in the day Nov 14 (Reuters) - Gold prices fell over 1% on Thursday, hitting a two-month low, pressured by a strong U.S. dollar, while investors awaited U.S. economic data later in the day for further clues on the Federal Reserve's monetary path. Spot gold was down 1.1% at $2,546.70 per ounce as of 1119 GMT, declining for a fifth straight session, after hitting its lowest since Sept. 12 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures were down 1.4% at $2,551.60. "Gold bulls have wilted in the face of the rampant dollar since Trump's election win," said Exinity Group Chief Market Analyst Han Tan. The U.S. dollar (.DXY) , opens new tab rose to a one-year high, making gold more expensive for overseas buyers. Treasury yields also rose, adding additional pressure. Markets are dismissing gold as a hedge against inflation, despite Trump's policies potentially raising U.S. inflation, Tan said. Economists believe Trump's tariff plans would stoke inflation, potentially slowing the Fed's rate easing cycle. Investors await the Producer Price Index (PPI) data for October, set for release at 13:30 GMT, which is expected to rise 0.2% on a monthly basis. The market also looked ahead to remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell due later in the day. Data on Wednesday showed slower progress toward low inflation since mid-year, which could result in fewer interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve next year. Markets see an 82% chance of a 25 basis points rate cut by the Fed in December, according to the CME Fedwatch tool , opens new tab, which would mark the third reduction this year. "Prices have turned bearish, signalling a likely move to lower levels for gold. The next key level to watch is $2,555 and if the decline continues, we may see prices testing the $2,520 level," said Brian Lan, managing director at Singapore-based dealer GoldSilver Central. Spot silver fell 1.8% to $29.81 per ounce, its lowest level since Sept. 12. Platinum fell 0.5% to $932.95. Palladium lost 0.9% to $925.25. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/gold-declines-8-week-low-stronger-dollar-yields-2024-11-14/