2024-11-11 06:03

US stocks extend gains following Trump election win Oil prices decline around 3% Bitcoin continues surge, hits record high Nov 11 (Reuters) - Wall Street traders on Monday kicked off a busy week by extending last week's stock rally, while oil prices declined and bitcoin raced to a new record high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) , opens new tab rose about 1%to 44,426, the S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab gained 0.34% to 6,015 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) , opens new tab added 0.11%, to 19,308. Among the winners, Tesla jumped 10% after touching $1 trillion in market value on Friday; crypto stocks such as Coinbase Global COIN.O , opens new tab, MARA Holdings MARA.O , opens new tab and Riot Platforms RIOT.O , opens new tab all gained more than 10%; and big banks Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase jumped 2% and 1.6%, respectively. Stocks head towards year-end on a solid footing, with the benchmark S&P 500 index (.SPX) , opens new tab up about 26% year-to-date as AI enthusiasm and the start of Fed rate cuts support an upbeat outlook. Focus will be on U.S. consumer price inflation data on Wednesday as well as a raft of other data this week for more indications on the health of the economy and the outlook for interest rates. The dollar traded not far from last week's four-month peak versus other major currencies (.DXY) , opens new tab, with a parade of Federal Reserve speakers also due to speak this week, including Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday. The Republican party is edging closer to sweeping both chambers of Congress, taking the Senate on election night and with Edison Research projecting it so far to have 214 seats of 218 needed for control of the House, compared to 205 for Democrats. Investors expect Trump's second term in office will bring equities-boosting tax cuts and looser regulations. Scott Bessent, a hedge fund manager, Trump supporter, and top contender to be Treasury Secretary, wrote in an opinion piece , opens new tab on Sunday that surging markets were "signaling expectations of higher growth, lower volatility and inflation, and a revitalized economy for all Americans." Trump's victory and pro-crypto candidates being voted to Congress has pushed bitcoin to the new all-time high above $82,370 spurred on by expectations of a lighter regulatory environment. Bitcoin last traded around $82,300. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) , opens new tab rose 0.1%. European stocks also rallied on Monday. The pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) , opens new tab added 1.15%. The euro dropped to its lowest level in 6-1/2 months against the dollar on Monday as investors worried about possible U.S. tariffs that would hurt the euro area's economy. The single currency was down 0.6% at $1.0653. U.S. bond markets were closed on Monday for Veterans Day. Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, wrote in a note Monday that while equity investors have been bullish on the new Trump administration, "it’s been less joyous for bond investors, with yields backing up sharply midweek over concerns around unfunded tax cuts and the inflationary impact of proposed tariff and immigration policies." DIVERGING FORTUNES Hong Kong shares slipped to a three-week low as China's local government debt-relief package fell short of investors' expectations for economic support, while a rally in semiconductor stocks pulled Chinese markets slightly higher. China's blue-chip CSI300 Index (.CSI300) , opens new tab closed up 0.6%, led by a 6.8% jump in semiconductor stocks after Reuters reported the U.S. had ordered chipmaking giant TSMC (2330.TW) , opens new tab to halt shipments of advanced chips to Chinese customers. Investors figured that would encourage authorities to support China's industry and bought shares in local makers, sending Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp stock up 4.7% to a record high. Japan's Nikkei (.N225) , opens new tab closed up 0.08% as gains were capped by domestic firms' weak outlook forecasts. China's National People's Congress Standing Committee unveiled a 10 trillion yuan ($1.39 trillion) debt package on Friday to ease local government financing strains and stabilize flagging economic growth. However, the stimulus steps lacked the direct injection of money into the economy that some investors had hoped to see, particularly amid the threat of massive tariffs under the incoming Trump administration. Gold fell 2.58% to $2,614 an ounce, dropping back from last month's record high of $2,790.15. Oil prices continued to fall on the expectation that Trump's pro-drilling rhetoric will increase world supplies. U.S. crude fell 3.28% to $68.07 a barrel and Brent fell to $71.69 per barrel, down 2.95% on the day. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/global-markets-wrapup-1-2024-11-11/

2024-11-11 05:35

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole. It's been a muted session in Asia with investors still nursing a grudge over China's latest policy package, which was heavy on debt swapping but again light on direct stimulus. Analysts assume Beijing wants to keep its powder dry should President-elect Trump really go ahead with his proposed 60% tariffs, but that just extends the wait for a few weeks or months. The need for action was underlined by inflation data on the weekend that showed Chinese consumer prices grew just 0.3% in the year to October, while producer prices dropped 2.9% y/y as China continued to export deflation. Eyes are now on retail sales and industrial output this Friday for any hint that Beijing's policies are gaining traction. A 1.3% fall in Chinese blue chips suggested hopes were not particularly high. Over in Japan, investors are waiting to see if Prime Minister Ishiba will still be in power after a parliamentary vote today. The general assumption is that he will survive, though that leaves him with the tricky task of running a minority government. An added twist came when Yuichiro Tamaki, the head of a Japanese opposition party that has emerged as a potential king maker in parliament, said a tabloid report about his extra-marital affair with a model was "basically true". Such political uncertainty complicates life for the Bank of Japan as it ponders whether to hike rates next month. Opinions from its last meeting showed some members were already wary of market volatility, and that was before Trump's win. At the same time, markets see less scope for further aggressive easing by the Federal Reserve given that Trump's stated policies, if followed in full, would likely put upward pressure on inflation and bond yields. The implied chance of a December rate cut has come back to 66%, from atop 80% before the election, and a move in January is now seen as an outside bet. JPMorgan, for one, sees the Fed easing cycle terminating at 3.5%, rather than 3.0%. U.S. consumer prices are due Wednesday and a core reading above the 0.3% forecast would be a further blow to hopes for a December easing. All of which helped to nudge the dollar up 0.5% on the yen to 153.40, while the euro stayed stuck at $1.0725. The political outlook was no clearer in Europe as German Chancellor Scholz said he would be willing to bring forward a vote of confidence in parliament to before Christmas, which would pave the way for snap elections. Key developments that could influence markets on Monday: - Speech by ECB board member Elizabeth McCaul Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/global-markets-view-europe-2024-11-11/

2024-11-11 05:24

Market awaits this week's speech by Fed's Jerome Powell US CPI, PPI data due later this week Dollar index up 0.5% Nov 11 (Reuters) - Gold prices slipped more than 2% on Monday, weighed down by the greenback's continued rise and broader implications of Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election on fiscal policy and interest rate cuts. Spot gold fell 2.5% to $2,617.96 per ounce, as of 1:54 p.m. ET (1854 GMT). U.S. gold futures settled 2.9% lower at $2,617.70. With the dollar index rising 0.5% to its highest level since early July, gold became less attractive to non-dollar buyers. Last week, the index surged more than 1.5% to 105.44 following the announcement of Trump's victory. "The market's attention has focused to the second-order effect since the red wave," said Daniel Ghali, commodity strategist at TD Securities. "The likelihood of tariffs being imposed relatively early on into Trump's presidency and the resulting strong demand for dollar that is creating. Stronger dollar is weighing on gold prices for the first time in months because it's also associated with increasing odds that the Federal Reserve might delay its easing cycle." Bullion logged its worst week in over five months following Trump's election last Tuesday to a second four-year term. His victory poses new uncertainties for the U.S. central bank as it continues to consider interest rate cuts now that inflation is nearing the Fed's 2% target. The Fed cut the benchmark rate a quarter of a percentage point last week to a range between 4.5% and 4.75%. Traders now see a 65% chance of a 25 basis-point Fed rate cut in December, versus around 80% chance before Trump's victory. FEDWATCH Meanwhile, Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, are scheduled to speak this week, while U.S. consumer and producer price index data, weekly jobless claims and retail sales figures are also due this week. Spot silver fell 2.2% to $30.60 per ounce. Despite efforts to use less silver and replace it with cheaper metals, the rapid increase in installations and the growing use of N-type cells are likely to keep silver demand strong in 2024, Heraeus analysts said in a note. Platinum lost 0.7% to $961.55, and palladium dropped 0.9% to $979.96. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/gold-extends-decline-investors-await-us-data-fed-comments-2024-11-11/

2024-11-11 05:22

Cryptocurrencies rally on de-regulation expectations Bitcoin hits record high over $82,000 Ether, dogecoin surge LONDON, Nov 11 (Reuters) - Bitcoin soared to a record high above $82,000 on Monday on expectations that cryptocurrencies will boom in a favourable regulatory environment following the election of Donald Trump as U.S. president and of pro-crypto candidates to Congress. The world's biggest and best-known cryptocurrency , has now more than doubled from the year's low of $38,505 and was last at $82,236, having earlier touched a record high of $82,527. Trump embraced digital assets during his campaign, promising to make the United States the "crypto capital of the planet" and to accumulate a national stockpile of bitcoin. "Bitcoin's Trump-pump is alive and well... with Republicans on the cusp of taking the house to confirm a red wave in Congress, it seems the crypto crowd are betting on digital-currency deregulation," said Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index, referring to Republican control of both houses. While Simpson warned that Trump's near-term priorities are likely to lie elsewhere, crypto investors see an end to stepped-up scrutiny under U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler whom Trump has said he will fire. The cryptocurrency industry spent more than $119 million backing pro-crypto congressional candidates, many of whom won their races. In Ohio, one of the crypto industry's biggest foes in Congress - Senate Banking Committee Chair Sherrod Brown - was ousted, while pro-crypto candidates from both the Democratic and Republican parties won in Michigan, West Virginia, Indiana, Alabama and North Carolina. Trump also unveiled a new crypto business, World Liberty Financial, in September. Although details about the business , opens new tab have been scarce, investors have taken his personal interest in the sector as a friendly signal. Billionaire Elon Musk, a major Trump ally, is also a proponent of cryptocurrencies. Eric Trump, one of the president-elect's sons and executive vice president of his private conglomerate, The Trump Organization, is a keynote speaker at a bitcoin conference in Abu Dhabi next month, according to the event organisers. "The incoming Trump administration may lead to expedited regulatory clarity, enhanced institutional participation, improved market infrastructure, and broader mainstream adoption," Deutsche Bank research analyst Marion Laboure said. "Trump's pragmatic approach marks a clear departure from recent regulatory restrictions." Flows into cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have also picked up since Trump's election win. On Thursday, Nov. 7, bitcoin ETFs experienced their largest inflows on record, drawing a net $1.38 billion, according to data from Citigroup. "There have been significant inflows across the board," Citi analysts said in a note. "ETF inflows have been the dominant driver of Bitcoin returns, and we expect this to continue in the near-term," they added. Gains in cryptocurrencies have been broad. Ether rose above $3,200 for the first time in over three months over the weekend and was last fetching $3,182. Dogecoin , an alternative cryptocurrency that began as a satirical critique of the 2013 crypto frenzy, was at a three-year high. U.S.-listed cryptocurrency stocks surged in premarket trading with crypto exchange Coinbase Global (COIN.O) , opens new tab jumping more than 16%, and iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT.O) , opens new tab up 7.3%. Crypto miner Riot Platforms (RIOT.O) , opens new tab surged over 10%, while MicroStrategy (MSTR.O) , opens new tab, one of bitcoin's biggest corporate backers, gained 11.3%. Deutsche Bank's Laboure also expects rate cuts from the Federal Reserve to create a supportive environment for the cryptocurrency market. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/technology/bitcoin-surges-record-high-trump-bets-2024-11-11/

2024-11-11 05:10

ZURICH, Nov 11 (Reuters) - The Swiss National Bank is not locked into more interest rate cuts in December, Vice Chairman Antoine Martin was quoted as saying in an interview published on Monday, despite previous comments it could trim borrowing costs after tackling inflation. The SNB has been at the forefront of central banks cutting interest rates this year, with three reductions already and markets expecting a cut of at least 25 basis points from the current 1% level at its next meeting on Dec. 12. At its last meeting in September, the SNB said it was ready to cut again, while both Martin and Chairman Martin Schlegel have recently floated the idea of lowering interest rates further and even taking rates below zero. The cuts are possible after Swiss inflation was brought under control, with the rate just 0.6% in October, the lowest level in more than three years. But nothing is set in stone, Martin told Swiss newspaper Le Temps. "It's not useful for central banks to lock themselves into forward-looking communications, since between now and the next decision, there may be changes in conditions that render current communications invalid," Martin said. This meant the SNB had made "absolutely no commitment" to its future course of action, Martin said in the interview, which took place before Donald Trump was elected next U.S. president. "Everything will depend on conditions when we assess the situation in December," Martin said. Low Swiss inflation was one factor behind the rise in the Swiss franc in recent years, while the currency was also sought by investors as a safe haven in times of uncertainty, he added. "Because of the inflation differential between Switzerland and other countries, we expect the Swiss franc to appreciate structurally over time in nominal terms," he said. "But in real terms, excluding the inflation effect, the appreciation has been limited," Martin said, adding the franc's appreciation this year was not particularly surprising or problematic. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/swiss-national-bank-not-locked-into-rate-cuts-vice-chairman-says-2024-11-11/

2024-11-11 04:53

Bitcoin hits all-time peak of $87,000 Dollar strengthens against the yen Nov 11 (Reuters) - The euro dropped to its lowest level in nearly seven months against the U.S. dollar on Monday, weighed down by investor worries about possible tariffs by a new White House administration which could hurt the euro area's economy. The euro has edged lower since Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election last week, sparking concerns about possible tariffs by his incoming administration. Several media outlets reported on Friday that Trump was lining up Robert Lighthizer, seen as a hawk on trade, to return to his previous post of running trade policy, which further weighed on the currency. Sources familiar with the matter said Trump has not asked Lighthizer to return to the agency overseeing trade policy. "What's going on today is just an extension or continuation of what's been going on since the election," said Eugene Epstein, head of trading and structured products, North America, at Moneycorp in New Jersey. "Every country or multi-country union that is facing any potential threat in tariffs is really having a hard time against the dollar." The EU's single currency was down 0.61% at $1.0654. It had dropped as low as 1.0629, the lowest level since mid-April this year. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index - a measure of the dollar's value relative to a basket of foreign currencies - slightly overshot the highs seen right after the U.S. presidential election, with markets still waiting for clarity about future U.S. policy. The dollar index was 0.48% firmer at 105.51, after hitting 105.70, its highest level since July. Last week, it jumped more than 1.5% to 105.44, after U.S. election results showed Trump's victory. "It does feel like the markets are pricing in a red wave more and more," said Bipan Rai, managing director at BMO Global Asset Management, referring to Trump's Republican Party. "I think the dollar is the beneficiary of that." Measures expected to be taken by the U.S. president-elect - including tariffs and tax cuts - should put upward pressure on inflation and bond yields while limiting the Fed's scope to ease policy and supporting the greenback. "One of the key questions after the election is, 'What's going to be at the top of the legislative agenda for the Trump administration?'" Rai said. "And it feels more and more like it's going to be tariffs, which, of course, he can pretty much push through without needing Congress on his side to help him do that." The dollar gained 0.69% on the yen to 153.69 , having been dragged off last week's top of 154.70 by the risk of Japanese intervention. On Nov. 6, it hit 154.68, its highest level since July. A summary of opinions from the Bank of Japan's October policy meeting showed members were unsure on when to raise rates, also due to political uncertainty. Bitcoin soared to a record high above $87,000 on Monday on expectations that cryptocurrencies will boom in a favourable regulatory environment following the election of Trump as president and crypto candidates to Congress. Bitcoin gained 13.95% to $87,215.00. Ethereum rose 14.27% to $3,363.80. The U.S. bond market is closed for a public holiday on Monday, though stocks and futures are open. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/dollar-underpinned-before-us-inflation-data-fed-speakers-2024-11-11/