2025-11-05 14:41

TORONTO, Nov 5 (Reuters) - Canada's services economy expanded in October for the first time in 11 months as businesses showed signs of adjusting to economic uncertainty, S&P Global's Canada services PMI data showed on Wednesday. The headline Business Activity Index rose to 50.5 last month from 46.3 in September, posting its first move above the 50 threshold since November last year. A reading above 50 shows expansion in the sector. Sign up here. The data offered "some evidence of a stabilisation in the business environment," Paul Smith, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said in a statement. "Whilst welcome, growth realistically failed to make up for the sustained period of contraction seen through much of 2025 and should be viewed in the context of the continued uncertainty and client hesitancy that still plagues market demand." The new business index was in contraction for an 11th straight month even as it improved to 48.8 from 48.1 in September. Canada sends about 75% of its exports to the United States so its economy has been badly hurt by the U.S.-led trade war. The first federal budget under Prime Minister Mark Carney was presented on Tuesday. “Political and economic uncertainty, especially in relation to trade policies, also continues to dominate the outlook with confidence amongst firms remaining sub-par in October," Smith said. "That helped to explain why companies were again reluctant to replace any leavers, especially given evidence of continued spare capacity in the sector." The employment measure was at 48.5, down from 48.9 in September and the future activity index slipped to 60.8 from 62.2. The S&P Global Canada Composite PMI Output Index rose to 50.3 last month from 46.3 in September, marking its highest level since November 2024. Data on Monday showed that the downturn in Canada's manufacturing sector eased in October as output and new orders declined at a slower pace. The S&P Global Canada Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.6 last month from 47.7 in September, posting its highest level since January. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canadas-october-services-pmi-shows-first-expansion-sector-this-year-2025-11-05/

2025-11-05 13:48

SAO PAULO, Nov 5 (Reuters) - The world should watch out for three possible bubbles in financial markets, including artificial intelligence, the head of the World Economic Forum said on Wednesday, in comments that came amid sharp falls in global technology stocks. Brokers and analysts say the falls are a cause for caution but not panic as markets have been touching record highs and some valuations are looking overblown. Sign up here. "We could possibly see bubbles moving forward. One is a crypto bubble, second an AI bubble, and the third would be a debt bubble," WEF president Borge Brende told reporters during a visit to Brazil's financial hub, Sao Paolo. Governments have not been so heavily indebted since 1945, he added. Markets have for months shrugged off concerns over elevated interest rates, stubborn inflation and trade turmoil, pushing higher partly on expectations that AI could transform the prospects for the global economy and businesses. AI offers the possibility of big productivity gains but could also threaten many white collar jobs, said Brende, whose organisation is best known for its annual meetings at Davos, Switzerland, where business and political leaders discuss pressing global challenges. "What you could - worst case - see is that... there is a 'Rust Belt' in those big cities that have a lot of back offices with white-collar workers that can more easily be replaced by this AI and increased productivity," Brende said, citing recent job cut announcements from companies such as Amazon and Nestle. "We also know from history that technological changes over time lead to increased productivity, and productivity is the only way over time to increase prosperity," he added. "Then you can pay people better salaries, and you have more prosperity in society." https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/world-economic-forum-chief-warns-three-possible-bubbles-global-economy-2025-11-05/

2025-11-05 13:29

BENGALURU, Nov 5 (Reuters) - Traders will be net short on the U.S. dollar through November as the currency weakens over coming months on continued bets of multiple Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, a Reuters survey of foreign exchange strategists showed on Wednesday. Rate futures are currently pricing three to four cuts by end-2026 on top of the two already delivered at recent FOMC meetings, even though Chair Jerome Powell recently suggested a December cut was anything but certain amid growing divisions within the Fed over future cuts. Sign up here. Policy decisions have been further complicated by an unprecedented 36-day U.S. government shutdown that has stalled several key economic releases, leaving officials with limited visibility on the economy and increasingly dependent on private data and alternative indicators. SOME SEE LESS-BEARISH POSITIONING AHEAD With official positioning data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) unavailable since late September, currency traders remain unsure how deep bearish dollar bets still run, forcing large banks to lean on alternative flow trackers and in-house models to infer positioning. Two-thirds of strategists, 30 of 45 in an October 31-November 5 Reuters survey, predicted traders would be net short on the dollar at end-November, though some said positions will not be as bearish as they were when last published. "So I would think once that data is released, I would expect positioning looks a lot less bearish than it was last looking. Our in-house proprietary indices where we try to gauge market positioning from a lot of other indicators tell us dollar positioning looks only modestly bearish - not as stretched as it was - inching more towards neutral levels," said Jayati Bharadwaj, macro and FX strategist at TD Securities. "From market price action and generally speaking to investors, I can see clients have been trying to buy dollars since the end of summer and into early autumn." Interest rate futures pricing implies a roughly 70% chance of a December Fed rate cut, down from nearly 90% before last week’s policy meeting, according to LSEG calculations. That has cooled the ‘sell dollar’ trade without shifting the broader outlook. The greenback has since pared some of its losses, now down about 8% for the year from nearly 11% in September. (.DXY) , opens new tab Still, strategists in the survey broadly stuck to earlier views, predicting the euro to rise a little under 3% to $1.18 in three months and to $1.20 in six. The median year-ahead forecast of $1.21 has held mostly steady for four consecutive months. That apparent caution in forecasting was also reflected in how respondents viewed the balance of risks. A slim majority - about 53%, 33 of 63 respondents - said the greenback was more likely to finish the year weaker than they predicted. The rest said stronger. "Our forecast for 2026 and beyond is there will be increasing political influence on the Federal Reserve. That's just the way it's set up - that the White House gets more votes on the Fed Board the longer it's in office," said Vincent Reinhart, former Fed staffer and now chief economist at BNY Investments. "But this White House is particularly more assertive about using that control. That's why we predict the policy rate going pretty low and the dollar depreciating." (Other stories from the November foreign exchange poll) https://www.reuters.com/business/traders-stay-net-short-us-dollar-say-fx-forecasters-clinging-bearish-views-2025-11-05/

2025-11-05 12:53

Nov 5 (Reuters) - Vitol said on Wednesday International Resources Holding (IRH) has signed a 20-year agreement with Delfin LNG and Vitol for the purchase and sale of 1.0 million tons per annum of liquefied natural gas from Delfin's U.S.-based export facility. Under the terms of the deal, Delfin LNG will supply LNG on a free-on-board basis to Vitol, which will act as the offtaker, delivering volumes to IRH Global Trading, IRH's trading arm. Sign up here. FOB refers to a shipping agreement where the seller is responsible for costs and risks until the goods are loaded onto the vessel. Definitive agreements are expected to be finalized in the coming weeks. "As part of our vision to build an integrated global trading platform headquartered in Abu Dhabi, IRHGT is actively expanding its presence across physical and financial markets in natural gas, power, crude oil, refined products, metals, and equities," Ali Rashed AlRashdi, CEO of IRH, said in a statement. "We look forward to working together as we make Final Investment Decision on the first FLNG Vessel in the coming weeks," said Dudley Poston, CEO of Delfin. Vitol is one of the world's largest independent energy traders, while Delfin LNG specializes in U.S. export infrastructure. International Resources Holding is a mine-to-market platform and subsidiary of ePointZero. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/vitol-delfin-lng-irh-sign-20-year-lng-supply-agreement-2025-11-05/

2025-11-05 12:49

BEIJING, Nov 5 (Reuters) - Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna called on China to stop its economic support of Russia's war in Ukraine and urged Beijing to join European and U.S. efforts to pressure President Vladimir Putin into a ceasefire during a Tuesday interview. Tsahkna met his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi and other officials during a two-day visit to Beijing, the first by an Estonian foreign minister in a decade, in which Russian aggression against Europe and trade were high on the agenda. Sign up here. "China says that they are not part of this military conflict but I was very clear that China has huge leverage over Russia, every week more and more, because the Russian economy is weak," Tsahkna told Reuters. U.S. President Donald Trump said he would "work together" with China's President Xi Jinping to end the war in Ukraine after meeting in South Korea last week, adding that Xi is "going to help us". But he did not pressure Beijing to reduce purchases of Russian oil. "President Trump said as well that this pressure (on Russia) is very important, that China should join. And I think that China can do a lot if it joined the pressure on Russia to finish the war," said Tsahkna. CONTROL OF DUAL-USE ITEMS Last month, the European Union launched another sanctions package and Washington imposed sanctions on two of Russia's largest oil firms to pressure Moscow towards an immediate ceasefire of the 44-month war. Tsahkna also raised the issue of China supplying dual-use critical components to fuel Russian war efforts with his counterpart, he said. China denies the accusations and says it strictly controls exports of dual-use items. China's perceived support for Russia has been the main issue dogging EU-China relations since Moscow's 2022 invasion. Visiting European leaders have repeatedly raised the issue but little has changed in Beijing's position. Estonia, like its Baltic neighbours Latvia and Lithuania, was forcibly annexed by Moscow during World War Two, regaining its independence only in 1991 as the Soviet Union fell apart. Today, Estonia regards Moscow as the main threat to its security. Russia's drone incursions and airspace violations of European NATO countries have increased since September, when Russian drones entered Polish airspace and three Russian military jets violated Estonia's airspace for 12 minutes. "It's not a spillover of the Ukraine crisis. It is well-planned, well-organised tests of NATO unity," Tsahkna said. TRADE ISSUES Both sides also discussed a "very important" EU-China free trade agreement different to the landmark 2020 investment pact that has been frozen since 2021, but Tsahkna added China's support for Russia may slow down its completion. He expressed hope that recent talks between Beijing and Brussels on China's expanded rare earth export controls could result in progress on obtaining general licenses for European firms amid a global supply crunch. Beijing controls more than 90% of the world's supply of rare earth materials essential for high-tech manufacturing, including electric vehicles, semiconductors and missiles. "I think that we should have these negotiations and also this is China's responsibility to not misuse this leverage," Tsahkna said. Estonia has one of the few rare earth magnet production facilities outside China, with an EU-funded factory that opened in September. https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/estonia-fm-urges-china-join-us-european-pressure-putin-2025-11-05/

2025-11-05 12:30

Output remains above OPEC+ quota Tengiz oilfield's output hit by maintenance MOSCOW, Nov 5 (Reuters) - Kazakhstan's crude oil production excluding gas condensate declined 10% last month to 1.69 million barrels per day, still above the OPEC+ output quota, according to an industry source and Reuters calculations. The Central Asian republic has repeatedly exceeded quotas set by the OPEC+ group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers led by Russia, angering some OPEC members, industry sources have said. Sign up here. Kazakhstan's OPEC+ output quota for October stood at 1.556 million bpd. Output declined largely because of maintenance at its largest oilfield, the Tengiz field operated by U.S. oil major Chevron's (CVX.N) , opens new tab Tengizchevroil. The source said the maintenance took place from the start of last month until October 24, reducing the field's output last month to 725,400 bpd, down from 963,830 bpd in September. The energy ministry and Tengizchevroil did not reply immediately to requests for comment. Kazakhstan's total output of crude oil and gas condensate, a type of light oil, fell to 8.016 million metric tons in October, down from 8.345 million tons in September, the source added. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/kazakhstans-october-oil-output-down-10-september-source-says-2025-11-05/