2025-12-23 07:26

Thailand considers gold transaction tax, measures to cut volumes 'Huge' gold trade volumes driving baht, cenbank governor says Gold traders warn that controls could harm the sector BANGKOK, Dec 23 (Reuters) - Thailand's finance ministry is considering a tax on online gold transactions and will explore measures to limit trading volumes by the biggest traders, officials said on Tuesday, as they try to tackle a surge in the baht currency. The baht has gained by 10.3% against the dollar so far this year to become Asia's best-performing currency, and it is now at its highest level against the dollar in more than four years. Sign up here. The baht's rapid appreciation has undermined the competitiveness of the export and tourism sectors in Southeast Asia's second-largest economy, which has been struggling with multiple challenges like U.S. tariffs, high household debt, a border conflict , opens new tab with Cambodia and political uncertainty ahead of elections on February 8. Traders selling gold, which has climbed more than 70% this year, in dollars in foreign markets are then selling the U.S. currency for baht. Senior finance ministry official Lavaron Sangsnit said the revenue department would look into imposing a specific business tax on gold trading conducted via online platforms, and would also consider new rules to force such platforms to report transaction data to tax authorities, similar to existing e-commerce platforms. The central bank will also study measures to cap the volume of transactions on digital gold trading platforms, he said. GOLD TAX COULD HURT SECTOR, MIGHT NOT COOL BAHT SURGE Gold traders have expressed their opposition to any tax on gold trading, saying it would harm the sector. "If a tax is imposed, gold trading will likely decline, and there could be a broad impact as online trading is very large," said Jitti Tangsithpakdi, president of the Thai Gold Traders Association. "There was no mention of this yesterday," he said, referring to a meeting the association held with the central bank. Poon Panichpibool, market strategist at Krungthai Bank, said that while the measures might help the baht somewhat, they would not solve the problem. "Even if a tax is imposed, if people still see upside, they will keep trading," he said. "It depends on how strong the upside for gold will be. If I have to predict, next year gold trading will likely drop anyway because the upside is reducing". BAHT'S RISE 'NOT REFLECTING ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS' The Thai baht's gains against the U.S. dollar are being driven by "huge" gold trading volumes, with its rise not in line with fundamentals, Central Bank Governor Vitai Ratanakorn told the same briefing. "The trading volumes are immense, and the baht's rise is not reflecting economic fundamentals," he said, adding gold transactions by large traders could be equivalent to 50% of GDP this year. "We have to admit that the strong baht is impacting the economy. Our current approach is very proactive," Vitai said. The central bank will manage unusually large gold transactions conducted in baht and expects to set limits on gold trading volumes for major traders around the middle of next month, Vitai said, adding the measures will not affect traditional gold shop transactions. Vitai reiterated that there were no plans to impose any aggressive capital control measures and said the central bank was hopeful that the measures on gold trading would help ease the currency's strength. The central bank said earlier that it had moved to contain the rapid gains in the baht, ordering tighter scrutiny of foreign exchange transactions linked to gold trading and instructing commercial banks to closely monitor foreign currency inflows. Earlier, Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas said the baht was too strong and was hurting Thailand's economy. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/thai-central-bank-finance-ministry-hold-briefing-baht-tuesday-2025-12-23/

2025-12-23 07:25

US economy grew faster than expected in the third quarter US might keep or sell seized Venezuelan oil, Trump says Weekly US crude, fuel stocks rose last week - API NEW YORK, Dec 23 (Reuters) - Oil prices settled higher on Tuesday as investors assessed stronger-than-expected U.S. economic growth and the risk of disruptions to oil supply from Venezuela and Russia. Brent crude futures settled 31 cents, or 0.5%, higher at $62.38 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 37 cents, or 0.64%, at $58.38. Sign up here. Prices had risen by more than 2% on Monday, with Brent registering its biggest daily gain in two months and WTI climbing the most since November 14. The U.S. economy grew faster than expected, driven by robust consumer spending, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said in its initial estimate of third-quarter GDP on Tuesday. "The market is trying to decide whether we should be more excited about the demand coming from the strong growth or worried that the Fed is going to have to put on the brakes on that growth to get inflation under control," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with the Price Futures Group. Other data painted a mixed picture of the economy. U.S. consumer confidence deteriorated in December amid deepening anxiety over jobs and income while factory production was unchanged in November after declining in October, data showed on Tuesday. TRUMP'S VENEZUELA BLOCKADE Investors were also considering the risk of disruptions to Venezuelan supply. U.S. President Donald Trump earlier this month announced a blockade of all oil tankers under sanctions entering and leaving Venezuela, which has kept vessel owners on alert. Panama-flagged very large crude carrier Kelly, which had departed from Venezuela carrying oil last week, has returned to Venezuelan waters following the U.S. interception of more tankers, monitoring service TankerTrackers.com said on Tuesday. "With dwindling storage capacity in Venezuela, there are rising risks that the country might have to shut in some production," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. Tanker loading in Venezuela has slowed, with most ships moving oil cargoes only between domestic ports following U.S. action against more ships. Trump said on Monday that the U.S. might keep or sell the oil it had seized off the coast of Venezuela. RUSSIAN SUPPLY DISRUPTED Disruption to Russian oil supply also supported prices. Russian forces struck Ukraine's Black Sea port of Odesa late on Monday and damaged port facilities and a ship, the second attack on the region in less than 24 hours, while Ukrainian drone attacks damaged two vessels, two piers and sparked a fire in a village in Russia's Krasnodar region. Ukraine has also targeted Russia's maritime logistics, focusing on shadow-fleet oil tankers that attempt to bypass sanctions on Russia. Oil markets are expected to remain well supplied in the first half of 2026, Barclays said in a note this week, but the bank added the oil surplus would shrink to only 700,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2026 and prolonged disruption could tighten the market further. U.S. crude inventories rose by 2.39 million barrels last week, while gasoline stocks increased by 1.09 million barrels and distillate inventories rose by 685,000 barrels, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. The U.S. Energy Information Administration is due to release its data on Monday, later than usual due to the holidays. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-slips-market-weighs-venezuela-russia-supply-risks-2025-12-23/

2025-12-23 07:16

LONDON, Dec 23 (Reuters) - Precious metals were the clear winner in 2025, while pretty much all other traditional "safe haven" investments underperformed. That's remarkable in a year marked by turbulence, conflict, and rumbling artificial intelligence bubble fears. Economies ran hot, politicians pushed for easy money, recession fears faded, an AI frenzy gripped markets, and geopolitical tensions rose, together shaping this year's market landscape. Sign up here. Precious metals outpaced almost everything else. Silver and platinum more than doubled, and gold rose over 60%, its biggest jump since the 1979 oil crisis. That performance trounced the roughly 20% gains in global equity indexes. Whether gold, silver, and platinum are caught in a speculative bubble of their own is still an open question. But their strength is bolstered by strong central bank demand and their role as key inputs in the broader tech build‑out. Wider commodity indexes flubbed this year, however, drowned by a swelling oil glut. Despite several tense moments in the Middle East during 2025, and the associated fears of crude jumping to $100 a barrel, crude prices actually fell 20% year-on-year and now sit at almost half that level. If you were worried about global conflict, the best place to put your money was not in traditional defensive sectors like utilities and consumer staples, but in the defense sector itself. U.S. aerospace and defense stocks clocked gains of 36% in 2025, while European counterparts jumped 55% and Germany and the continent re-armed. LAGGING BONDS AND DEFENSIVES Most other traditional buffers and safety plays were dead weights on portfolios this year rather than protection. Even crypto tokens like bitcoin - touted by some as "digital gold" - are ending the year in the red. It was also a poor year for bonds. Global "risk‑free" government bond indexes lost about 1% in dollar terms, while clocking just over 6% on a total return basis. Broader global bond benchmarks such as the Bloomberg Multiverse, which includes government, supra‑national, agency and corporate debt, did little better, with price gains of about 1% and total returns near 7%. That's less than half the rise in MSCI's all-country stock index, which is on track for its best year since before the pandemic in 2019. Within equities, going defensive wasn't a winning strategy. The overall S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab, flattered by tech megacaps and the AI theme, notched annual gains of 15%, as a strong U.S. economic rebound and falling interest rates in the second half of 2025 lifted most Wall Street boats. But S&P 500 "growth" stocks jumped 20%, more than double the gains of "value" stocks. The S&P 500's total return was also 5 percentage points more than the equal-weighted cut of the index. While utilities, healthcare and financials had a decent year with more than 10% gains, they all trailed the main index. Consumer staples managed only about 2%, bringing up the rear. Finally, the Dow Industrials (.DJI) , opens new tab blue chips also underperformed both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq (.IXIC) , opens new tab. SAFETY LAST? Among currencies, Japan's yen and Switzerland's franc are usually viewed as safety plays - but one of them also disappointed by year-end. The dollar's slide in the first half of 2025 initially drove both the yen and Swiss franc higher, but the Japanese currency subsequently surrendered all its gains. A further Bank of Japan rate hike failed to help as investors fretted about fresh fiscal stimulus and were unsettled in domestic bond markets by the arrival of new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. In real effective terms against Japan's main trading partners, the yen fell about 4% over the year. The franc, however, held on to its early gains and, along with gold and silver, was one of the few havens to make good in 2025. But if you went into the year viewing the dollar as a haven in times of geopolitical stress, you had to think again. The DXY dollar index fell 12% during some of the year's most turbulent months, and stayed weak through multiple flashpoints in the Middle East, eastern Europe and even the Caribbean. Another strategy for investors wary of market disruptions would have been to buy options-related volatility indexes to profit from wild gyrations in stocks and bonds. But these parachutes never really opened either in 2025. Despite big swings in the spring, the S&P 500's VIX (.VIX) , opens new tab "fear index" of one-month implied volatility is ending the year two points below where it started. The Treasury market equivalent, the MOVE index, is less than two-thirds its opening level and below half its April peak. The main currency market 'vol' gauges are lower as well. It simply didn't really pay to be too cautious this year. Doubles or quits for 2026? The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters. -- Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), your essential new source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn. Plus, sign up for my weekday newsletter, Morning Bid U.S. https://www.reuters.com/markets/global-markets-yearahead-roi-column-graphics-pix-2025-12-23/

2025-12-23 07:04

WARSAW, Dec 23 (Reuters) - Two workers were killed due to an outburst of methane and rock masses at the Pniowek coal mine in southern Poland, owner JSW (JSW.WA) , opens new tab said on Monday evening. The company said that after 5 p.m. (1600 GMT) on Monday, a large amount of methane was released at the Pniowek mine, where a high-performance roadheader was operating with 10 workers underground. Sign up here. Eight managed to evacuate on their own, while contact with two others was lost, JSW said. After a seven-hour rescue operation, teams located the missing miners who were pronounced dead at the scene by a doctor, the company said. On Tuesday morning, Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk offered condolences to the victims' families on X, while President Karol Nawrocki said he received the news of the miners' deaths "with great sorrow". Polish Press Agency (PAP) said that the deaths were the 14th and 15th fatalities in mining accidents in Poland this year, and the 11th and 12th in hard coal mines. The Pniowek mine is among the country's operations with the highest methane risk, PAP reported. https://www.reuters.com/world/two-killed-underground-explosion-polish-coal-mine-2025-12-23/

2025-12-23 06:58

Gold hits record high at $4,497.55/oz Silver hits new high at $71.49/oz Silver's next target is $75/oz, analyst says Palladium up more than 6% Dec 23 (Reuters) - Silver extended its record rally on Tuesday, breaching the key $70-an-ounce mark, while gold and platinum also touched historic highs. Spot silver rose 3.2% to $71.22 per ounce as of 03:12 p.m. ET (20:12 GMT), after touching a record high of $71.49 earlier. Prices are up 147% year-to-date. Sign up here. "At the bottom of this is the reality of supply and demand in a market that has been in deficit for five years, alongside increasing industrial demand. The safe-haven aspect, expectations of a weaker dollar and lower yields are also contributing to the bid," said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals. "Silver's next target is $75, but year-end profit-taking could trigger a pullback." The U.S. dollar fell in a holiday-shortened week. A weaker dollar makes dollar-priced metals more attractive to overseas buyers. Spot gold added 1.1% to $4,492.99 per ounce after hitting a record $4,497.55. Bullion has surged about 70% this year, driven by geopolitical tensions, U.S. rate cuts, strong central bank buying and robust investment demand. U.S. gold futures for February delivery settled 0.8% higher at $4,505.7. "We continue to see the longer-term thematic of central bank foreign reserve diversification as a major tailwind for gold prices through the end of the decade," analysts at SP Angel said in a note. "We see gold rising towards $5,000/ounce next year," the note said. In the latest flare-up in geopolitical tensions, U.S. President Donald Trump last week ordered a "blockade" of all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela, and said he was not ruling out the possibility of war with the country. Spot platinum was 6.8% up at $2,268.95, after scaling a record high of $2,274.10 per ounce earlier in the day. Palladium gained 6.5% to a three-year high of $1,874.22. The sister metals are used in automotive catalytic converters, where they help reduce harmful emissions. Earlier this month, the European Commission published plans to abandon an effective 2035 ban on combustion engine cars. This news is "a steroid jab for PGMs (platinum group metals), prolonging their use in catalytic converters," analysts at Mitsubishi said in a note this week. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-hits-record-high-safe-haven-demand-silver-climbs-new-peak-2025-12-23/

2025-12-23 06:45

JAKARTA, Dec 23 (Reuters) - Indonesia's wet season is expected to return to normal in 2026, and authorities should work to improve efficiency during the harvest of key crops like palm oil, its meteorological agency said on Tuesday. Agency climate official Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan said a La Nina weather pattern, which typically brings more rainfall, was expected to be weaker in 2026 and should conclude by the end of the first quarter. Sign up here. "Climate conditions that are not as wet as 2025 can be optimised for the efficiency of harvests and the logistics of palm plantations," he told reporters. He added that sugarcane and tobacco producers should also prepare for rain during the dry season. Indonesia is an archipelago of thousands of islands, and weather patterns vary widely. Indonesia is expected to transition into the dry season in June, Ardhasena said, and authorities should also anticipate a drop in air quality due to industrial emissions and also in areas where forest fires are common. The 2023 dry season was Indonesia's most severe in four years due to an El Nino weather phenomenon that brought prolonged drought, damaging crops and exacerbating forest fires. https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/indonesia-expects-normal-wet-season-2026-weather-agency-says-2025-12-23/