2025-12-23 06:35

Silver up over 140% year-to-date; gold up over 70% Gold-silver ratio narrows to 64 from 105 in April Spot gold hits a record high of $4,497.55/oz Analysts forecast gold to shine again next year Dec 23 (Reuters) - Gold surged close to the $4,500-per-ounce mark on Tuesday, while silver hovered just shy of $70, as expectations of looser U.S. monetary policy and simmering geopolitical tensions propelled both precious metals toward record highs. Spot gold traded as high as $4,497.55, while silver climbed to a record peak of $69.98, extending hefty gains this year. Sign up here. "With precious metals making record prices so late in the year, when ordinarily one might have found time to write a Christmas card or two, perhaps the biggest takeaway is that investors have not treated the festive break as an occasion to take profits," Mitsubishi analysts said. GEOPOLITICAL AND MACRO DRIVERS Bullion has hit multiple record highs this year, underpinned by U.S. interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar. Analysts see more upside into next year, with Goldman Sachs forecasting gold at $4,900 by December 2026. The dollar has slumped nearly 10% in 2025, putting it on track for its worst year in eight. Many investors expect the currency's decline to resume in 2026 as global growth picks up and the Federal Reserve eases policy further. "Rate cut bets have ramped up following the recent inflation and labour data prints in the U.S., which is helping drive precious metal demand," said Zain Vawda, analyst at MarketPulse by OANDA. Safe-haven demand is also expected to remain strong amid tensions in the Middle East, uncertainty over a Russia-Ukraine peace deal and, more recently, U.S. action against Venezuelan tankers. ETF INFLOWS AND CENTRAL BANK BUYING Central bank demand for gold has been elevated for four years and is likely to continue into 2026, alongside strong investment demand, analysts said. Central banks are on track to buy 850 tons of gold in 2025, down from 1,089 tons in 2024, said Philip Newman, managing director at consultancy Metals Focus. "It's still a very healthy figure in absolute terms," he added. Physically-backed gold exchange-traded funds are on course for their biggest inflow since 2020, attracting $82 billion, equivalent to 749 tons, so far this year, according to the World Gold Council. Jewellery demand has been under pressure due to high prices, partly offset by strong retail investment in bars and coins. Jewellery consumption in India fell 26% year-on-year to 291 tons in January-September, with the fourth quarter also looking weak, Metals Focus said, adding that softness would carry into 2026. Retail investment in bars and coins in India rose 13% to 198 tons in the same period, driven by record prices and bullish expectations, Metals Focus said. SILVER OUTSHINES GOLD Spot silver has surged over 140% this year, outpacing gold's gain of more than 70%, supported by robust investment demand, its inclusion on the U.S. critical minerals list, and momentum buying. Silver exchange-traded product inflows have surpassed 4,000 tons, said Standard Chartered analyst Suki Cooper. "Momentum and fundamentals support further gains, though stretched positioning and low year-end liquidity may cause volatility, with traders buying dips while real yields remain low and physical supply tight," Mitsubishi analysts said. Silver is already technically overbought, analysts said, as it now takes just 64 ounces of silver to buy an ounce of gold , down from 105 ounces in April. "There will definitely be people trading the gold-silver ratio, but otherwise, when this febrile atmosphere evaporates, they will decouple and silver will almost certainly be the underperformer," StoneX analyst Rhona O'Connell said. https://www.reuters.com/business/gold-silver-soar-year-end-rally-2025-12-22/

2025-12-23 06:05

LONDON, Dec 23 (Reuters) - Supply disruption and tariff dislocation have defined the London Metal Exchange (LME) base metals complex this year. The demand picture is far from rosy, but supply-chain stress has still lifted the LME Index (.LMEX) , opens new tab, a basket of the exchange's six base metals contracts, to its highest level since the all-time peak in 2022. Sign up here. That was the year Russia invaded Ukraine. This year's turbulence has come from a different direction, as markets navigate U.S. President Donald Trump's topsy-turvy tariff world. Financial markets have recovered from their "Liberation Day" swoon in April, but targeted U.S. aluminium tariffs and the threat of copper tariffs are causing tectonic shifts in trading patterns. Tariff dislocation adds complexity to the spectrum of supply risk facing individual metals and helps explain the wide divergence in performance this year. DOCTOR COPPER'S SPLIT PERSONALITY LME three-month copper has been punching out fresh all-time highs this month as it challenges the $12,000 per metric ton level. The CME's U.S. copper contract is trading higher still because it's pricing in possible tariffs on imports of refined metal. The Trump administration has deferred a decision until the middle of next year, but the threat of tariffs has proved as disruptive as the reality. The world's surplus copper has gravitated towards the U.S., lifting CME stocks to multi-year highs and leaving everyone else short of metal. Feast or famine? Copper is currently both depending on where you are. The arbitrage between CME and LME copper has been a wild ride this year as tariffs were on, then off, then on again maybe. Until Trump makes up his mind, it will continue to define global flows of refined copper. TIN HAS NEW FUND FRIENDS While copper has grabbed the headlines, this year's star turn has come from tin, a market grappling with multiple supply threats. Tin's problem is too much mine supply is concentrated in too few countries, including high-risk jurisdictions such as the Democratic Republic of Congo and the semi-autonomous Wa State in Myanmar. Extra volatility is coming from increased fund participation in the smallest of the LME's core contracts. Tin appears to be moving onto the investment radar as the world wakes up to the fact that, in the form of circuit-board solder, the Bronze Age metal has a bright future in the coming Internet-Of-Things Age. ALUMINIUM - MIND THE CAP...AND THE GAP Aluminium has been the third strongest LME performer this year, reflecting a growing awareness that production in China, the world's largest producer, is now bumping against the government's mandated capacity cap. Not everyone agrees with Citi's call that aluminium is "sleep-walking into the biggest (supply) deficits in 20 years", but it's certainly a long time since the market has paid so much attention to new smelter projects outside of China. Aluminium trade flows, already dislocated by sanctions on Russian metal, have been further fractured by the doubling of U.S. import tariffs. The premium for U.S. delivery stands at a record 89 cents per lb ($1,967 per ton) over the LME price. That's also a premium over the implied 50% tariff rate, suggesting that the U.S. is now running short of metal. ZINC SURPRISE And talking of sleep-walking into a deficit, the LME zinc market was rocked by a ferocious squeeze in October. The cash premium over three-month delivery flexed out to over $300 per ton backwardation, a record level, as LME stocks fell to just 50,000 tons. This was supposed to be a year of zinc surplus as a wave of new mine supply washed through the supply chain. But the surplus has all ended up in China. Global mine production rose by a robust 6.5% year-on-year and refined output by 2.9% year-on-year in January-October, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group. However, Western production of refined zinc actually fell by 2.2%, reflecting a mix of closures, suspensions and unforeseen smelter hits. This month's implosion of the LME spread structure suggests Chinese surplus is on the move to satiate Western hunger. TOO MUCH LEAD There's no shortage of lead. Nor is there likely to be one any time soon. Warehousing the stuff is as profitable as trying to sell it in the physical market, which is why traders have spent the year arm-wresting units off each other to profit from warehouse incentives. Over a million tons of lead have been delivered in and out of LME warehouses this year for a net rise of just 16,425 tons in registered inventory. The noise masks the signal coming from the underlying uptrend in combined LME registered and off-market stocks, which have risen from 21,500 tons at the start of 2023 to over 440,000 tons. INDONESIAN BOOM, NICKEL BUST Nickel stocks have also mushroomed thanks to Indonesia's continued production boom, which has caused global supply growth to far outstrip demand. The good news is that exchange stocks would be even higher had there not been what Macquarie Bank describes as "large unreported strategic stockpiling" in China. The bad news is that the LME has just approved a new Indonesian nickel brand, produced by PT Eternal Industry at a rate of 50,000 tons per year. Nickel is currently enjoying an end-of-year bounce on renewed hope that Indonesia can tame its production growth in 2026, which says everything you need to know about the nickel market right now. Andy Home is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own. Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI) for thought-provoking, data-driven commentary on markets and finance. Follow ROI on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X , opens new tab. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/disruption-dislocation-lme-metals-year-seven-charts-2025-12-23/

2025-12-23 06:04

World stocks have added another $15 trillion in market cap Biggest annual gain for gold since 1979 oil crisis Treasuries have made modest gains but emerging market bonds have surged Oil down 18%, bitcoin crashes 30% since October LONDON, Dec 31 (Reuters) - Most investors knew this year would be different given Donald Trump's return to power in the world's biggest economy, but few predicted how wild the ride would get, or the end results. World stocks (.MIWD00000PUS) , opens new tab recovered from April's "Liberation Day" tariffs' crash and have risen 21% in 2025, a sixth year of double-digit gains in the last seven, but look elsewhere and the surprises jump out. Sign up here. Gold , the ultimate safe port in a storm, has surged close to 65% in its best year since the 1979 oil crisis, while the U.S. dollar (.DXY) , opens new tab is down nearly 10%, oil is off almost 18%, yet the junkiest of junk bonds have soared in the debt markets. The "Magnificent Seven" U.S. tech giants seem to have lost some of their sparkle since artificial intelligence darling Nvidia (NVDA.O) , opens new tab became the world's first $5 trillion company in October, and bitcoin has suddenly lost a third of its value too. DoubleLine fund manager Bill Campbell described 2025 as "the year of change and the year of surprises", with the big moves all "intertwined" in the same seismic issues - the trade war, geopolitics and debt. "If you were to tell me a priori that Trump was going to come in and use very aggressive trade policies and sequence it the way he has, I would not have expected valuations to be as tight or lofty as they are today," Campbell said. A 56% boom in shares of European weapons makers (.SXPARO) , opens new tab has been driven by Trump too, following signals he will scale back Europe's military protection forcing the region - and other NATO members - to rearm. That also helped drive the best year for European banking shares since 1997 (.SX7P) , opens new tab, while there's also been a 75% leap in South Korean stocks (.KS11) , opens new tab and near-100% returns on defaulted Venezuelan bonds. Silver and platinum are up an even more dazzling 145% and 125% respectively. A trio of U.S. rate cuts, Trump's criticisms of the Federal Reserve and broader debt worries have all impacted bond markets. The U.S. president's "big, beautiful" spending plans led the 30-year Treasury yield to surge past 5.1% to its highest since 2007 in May. Though it is now back at 4.8%, the re-expanding gap to short-term rates that bankers dub "term premia" is causing jitters again. Japan's 30-year yields are back at a record high too. The juxtaposition here is that global bond market volatility is at a four-year low (.MOVE) , opens new tab, and local-currency emerging market debt has had its best year since 2009. AI is all part of the debt mix too as firms borrow to invest. Goldman Sachs estimates the big AI "hyperscalers" have spent nearly $400 billion this year and will spend almost $530 billion next year. ALL THAT GLITTERS The dollar's decline leaves the euro up almost 14% in 2025 and the Swiss franc 14.5% higher. China's yuan has just broken through 7 per dollar, while the yen's December bashing leaves it flat for the year. Trump's re-engagement with Russian President Vladimir Putin , opens new tab has helped the rouble surge 40%, although it remains heavily restricted by sanctions and has just been pipped to the top performer title by a 41% tear from gold producer Ghana's cedi. Poland's zloty, the Czech crown and Hungarian forint are all between 15% and 21% stronger and Taiwan's dollar jumped 8% in just two days in May, while Mexico's peso and Brazil's real both shrugged off the trade war drama to score double-digit gains. "We don't think this is just a short-term phenomenon," said Jonny Goulden, head of EM fixed income strategy research at J.P. Morgan. "We think a bear market cycle for EM currencies that has lasted for 14 years now, has turned here." Argentina has been another standout. Its markets were hammered when President Javier Milei suffered a thumping regional election defeat in September, but then went wild weeks later when a $20 billion pledge from Trump helped Milei romp national midterms. In crypto, Trump launched a memecoin and gave a presidential pardon to Binance founder Changpeng Zhao. Bitcoin hit an all-time high above $125,000 in October but then crashed below $88,000 and will end the year down over 6%. NEW YEAR, NEW FEARS It won't be a quiet start to next year either. Trump is already revving up for midterm elections in November and is expected to name his new head of the Federal Reserve shortly, which could be crucial for the central bank's independence. Investors will be looking to see if China's economy can push on. Israel will hold elections before the end of October, which will keep the fragile Gaza ceasefire in focus. Ending the Ukraine war remains devilishly difficult, while Viktor Orban faces his toughest election yet in Hungary in April and Colombia and Brazil have pivotal elections starting in May and October respectively. And then there are all of the AI unknowns. Satori Insights founder Matt King said markets are going into 2026 in a "remarkable" situation in terms of valuations and with leaders like Trump "looking for excuses" to give voters money through stimulus or tax breaks. "There's just this ongoing risk that we are pushing the limits of what easy money can do," King said. "Already you are starting to see the cracks appearing around the edges, in terms of growth of term premia (in the bond market), in terms of bitcoin suddenly selling off and in terms of the ongoing gold rally." https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-performance-pix-graphics-2025-12-23/

2025-12-23 06:00

Wall Street gains with S&P 500 notching record closing high STOXX stock index hit record close in Europe Yen gains with traders on alert to intervention risk Gold, silver, platinum hit records NEW YORK/LONDON, Dec 23 (Reuters) - Major stock indexes advanced on Tuesday after stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data, while the yen gained on the dollar after Tokyo signaled its readiness to support the battered currency. The U.S. benchmark S&P 500 notched a record closing high with strength in growth stocks. Earlier, the pan-European STOXX 600 index also registered a record closing high Sign up here. In precious metals, silver, gold and platinum set new records. Data showed the U.S. economy grew faster than expected in the third quarter, driven by robust consumer spending. Early estimates showed gross domestic product increased at a 4.3% annualized rate last quarter, far above economists' forecast for a rise at a 3.3% pace, according to a Reuters poll. "We're still in this period of playing catch-up with economic data and GDP is dated ... But it's showing strength in the economy, and strength that's above expectations," said Tim Ghriskey, senior portfolio strategist at Ingalls & Snyder in New York. U.S. economic releases have been delayed by a record federal government shutdown. On Wall Street, the S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab rose 31.30 points, or 0.46%, to 6,909.79, surpassing its December 11 close for a fresh record. The S&P 500 growth index (.IGX) , opens new tab finished up 0.8%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) , opens new tab rose 79.73 points, or 0.16%, to 48,442.41, and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) , opens new tab added 133.02 points, or 0.57%, to 23,561.84. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) , opens new tab gained 4.61 points, or 0.45%, to 1,020.10, which would also be a record close. Earlier, the pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) , opens new tab index ended up 0.34%. Novo Nordisk's (NOVOb.CO) , opens new tab, U.S.-listed shares finished up 7.3% after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved its weight-loss pill, giving the Danish drugmaker a competitive edge in the fast-evolving obesity treatment market. U.S. government bonds were a mixed picture. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes fell 0.4 basis points to 4.167%, from 4.171% late on Monday and the 30-year bond yield fell 1.8 basis points to 4.8252%. But the 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve, rose 2.9 basis points to 3.532%, from 3.503% late on Monday. In currencies, the yen gained against the dollar as investors weighed the odds of an imminent intervention after Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said Japan has a free hand in dealing with excessive moves in the yen, the strongest warning so far about Tokyo's readiness to intervene in the market to arrest sharp declines in the currency. The BOJ raised rates at its December policy meeting on Friday, as expected. Against the Japanese yen , the dollar weakened 0.47% to 156.31. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, fell 0.29% to 97.96. The euro was up 0.25% at $1.1789. In precious metals, silver extended its record rally and blew past the $70 an ounce mark for the first time, while gold and platinum also touched historic highs. Spot silver was up 3.49% at $71.43 while spot gold rose 1.02% to $4,490.93 an ounce and spot platinum was up about 7% at $2,269.25. In energy markets, oil prices ended Tuesday's session higher as potential sales of Venezuelan crude seized by the United States weighed and investors assessed stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data. U.S. crude settled up 0.64%, or 37 cents at $58.38 a barrel, while Brent settled at $62.38 per barrel, up 0.5%, or 31 cents. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2025-12-23/

2025-12-23 05:51

SINGAPORE, Dec 23 (Reuters) - Myanmar is expected to resume liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports next year after taking delivery of half a cargo last month, ending a more than four-year hiatus in shipments of the super-chilled fuel, data and analytics firm Kpler said. This would mark the Southeast Asian nation's return to the LNG import market, after shipments were halted amid the civil war. Since then, Myanmar has faced gas shortages and widespread power outages. Sign up here. Kpler expects Myanmar to import 0.4 million tons of LNG in 2026, with two restarted or upgraded LNG-to-power projects ramping up to a combined 500 megawatts (MW), said analyst Nelson Xiong, referring to the 200-MW Thanlyin power plant and the 300-MW Thaketa power plant. According to Kpler data, the Dapeng Princess tanker had picked up the LNG from the Bintulu LNG plant in East Malaysia on November 12, before delivering it to the Thilawa FSU in the south of Myanmar. "Kpler data shows the Thilawa floating storage unit (FSU), CNTIC VPower Energy, arrived in Yangon and berthed on November 16, while the Dapeng Princess discharged half a cargo on November 23, likely to fuel generator test runs," Xiong said. Myanmar's information ministry did not immediately respond to a request from Reuters for comment. Myanmar had first started importing LNG in June 2020 with Malaysia's Petronas delivering its first cargo to CNTIC VPower, a joint venture of Chinese state-owned engineering, procurement and construction firm China National Technical Import and Export Corporation (CNTIC) and Hong Kong-based power distributor VPower Group. But the Southeast Asian nation halted imports just over a year later after a military coup, receiving a total of 550,000 metric tons of LNG since beginning imports. Prior to last month's shipment, it last received an LNG cargo in August 2021, according to Kpler data. The country's receiving terminal situated by the Yangon River comprises an FSU and an onshore regasification unit. CNTIC and VPower Group did not immediately respond to Reuters' requests for comment. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/myanmar-set-resume-lng-imports-after-receiving-cargo-last-month-analyst-says-2025-12-23/

2025-12-23 05:50

BEIJING, Dec 23 (Reuters) - China will step up urban renewal and efforts to stabilise its property market in 2026 at the start of its latest Five-Year Plan (2026-2030), according to a readout of a housing policy conference released on Tuesday. The conference, held in Beijing on December 22-23, mapped out key housing development tasks for the Five-Year Plan period, and called next year a critical starting point for policy implementation, according to the readout published by the housing ministry's official outlet. Sign up here. A major focus will be the "vigorous implementation of urban renewal", alongside efforts to stabilise the real estate market, prevent and defuse risks and improve the supply of affordable housing. China's property sector, once a key engine of growth, has been in persistent decline since mid-2021, despite repeated government pledges to shore up the sector. Weak home sales and falling prices have weighed on consumer confidence and homeowners, with around 70% of household wealth tied to real estate. Developers have also faced liquidity strains. China Vanke (000002.SZ) said in a filing on Monday it had won approval to extend the grace period for a 2 billion yuan ($284.2 million) bond repayment due on December 15. On market stabilisation, officials said policies would be tailored to local conditions to manage supply and reduce inventories. Measures include renovating urban villages and supporting local governments in purchasing existing homes for use as affordable housing. Officials also said China would push a shift toward selling finished new homes, so "buyers can see what they are getting". The conference pledged to strengthen the "project whitelist" mechanism, a government-backed programme under which local officials nominate stalled residential projects for expedited bank financing, and urged city governments to make full use of their discretion to adjust and optimise property policies. On risk control, officials said they would follow market-oriented and the rule of law to address developers' debt risks, tighten oversight of presale funds and protect homebuyers' legitimate rights and interests. On affordable housing, officials said they would seek to provide housing support for low-income urban households facing difficulties, while adopting targeted measures to meet the basic housing needs of vulnerable groups, including young people. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-pledges-stabilise-housing-market-2026-2025-12-23/