2024-11-06 04:44

MUMBAI, Nov 6 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee weakened to an all-time low on Wednesday as early results of the U.S. presidential election spurred a rally in the U.S. dollar, prompting the central bank to intervene. The rupee fell to 84.1950 against the dollar, down about 0.1% from its Tuesday close. Other Asian currencies, however, fared much worse, with the offshore Chinese yuan, the Korean won, the Malaysian ringgit and the Thai baht down 1% to 1.3%. The rupee's relatively muted response was due to the Reserve Bank of India likely selling dollars, like it has done many times the last month. The RBI "may be okay with a gradual, calibrated depreciation of the rupee," but it will ensure that large moves are curbed, Ritesh Bhusari, joint general manager for treasury at South Indian Bank. "We don't see the rupee declining below 84.25 on a sustainable basis." The dollar index climbed 1.5% to a four-month high of 105.19 as trends signalled an edge for Republican candidate Donald Trump, prompting interest in so-called 'Trump trades.' The odds of Trump winning , opens new tab the election jumped to nearly 90% in the betting markets. Trump has vowed to impose a 10% tariff on imports from all countries and 60% duties on Chinese imports. In the run-up to the election, Trump said India charged high tariffs and that he would reciprocate if elected. U.S. Treasury yields jumped with the 10-year yield up 15 basis points at 4.44%, while U.S. equity futures rallied. Projections showed that Trump had secured 230 electoral college votes, while Democrat candidate Kamala Harris had won 187 votes. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/rupee-hits-record-low-amid-decline-asian-peers-us-election-updates-2024-11-06/

2024-11-06 04:21

Nov 5 (Reuters) - Traders trimmed bets Tuesday on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts next year, as early tallies for the U.S. presidential election rolled in through the evening. Traders of futures contracts tied to the Fed's policy rate continue to bet the Fed will cut the policy rate by a quarter of a percentage point this week and again in December, but now see the Fed likely stopping its rate cuts after just two more such cuts in the first half of 2025, bringing the rate to the 3.75%-4% range. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/traders-trim-bets-fed-rate-cuts-2025-early-election-results-tallied-2024-11-06/

2024-11-06 03:58

JAKARTA, Nov 6 (Reuters) - Indonesia's central bank is ready to stabilise the rupiah, including through intervention if there was excessive volatility, an official said on Wednesday after the currency weakened as traders reacted to incoming U.S. election results. Fitra Jusdiman, a director at Bank Indonesia's Monetary and Securities Asset Management Department, told Reuters the rupiah's fall to three-month lows against the U.S. dollar reflected sentiment on the U.S. election. "Current market development is currently dominated by U.S. election sentiment that for now indicates a potential win for presidential candidate Donald Trump," he said "This has led to a broad-based U.S. dollar strengthening against most other currencies," he said. The rupiah fell by as much as 0.7% against the dollar to 15,840, its weakest level since Aug. 13, data from LSEG showed. Bank Indonesia (BI) held rates steady at its October policy meeting as it focused on rupiah stability amid rising tension in the Middle East and to keep inflation in check. The next policy decision is due on Nov. 20. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/indonesia-central-bank-says-ready-stabilise-rupiah-if-needed-2024-11-06/

2024-11-06 03:40

Bitcoin breaks $75k Traders see Trump as crypto friendly ETH surges but well short of record SINGAPORE, Nov 6 (Reuters) - Bitcoin surged to a record high in Asian trade as investors leaned towards Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidential election. The world's biggest cryptocurrency rose 7% to $75,060, topping March's peak, with the prospect of Trump's return to the White House seen ushering in a softer line on cryptocurrency regulation. Republican Trump won 15 states while Democrat Kamala Harris captured seven states and Washington, D.C., Edison Research projected, and though the race remained too early to call financial markets began moving in the Asia session to price a victory for the former president. Matthew Dibb, chief investment officer at cryptocurrency asset manager Astronaut Capital, said markets expected a change in attitude at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to remove a choke point for crypto innovation and speculation. "(A) Democrat win would have felt like a short term nail in the coffin," he said. "Probably not the case long term but the market is placing high importance on it." Smaller cryptocurrency ether also jumped 7.5% but at $2,593 remained well below its 2021 high of $4,867. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/technology/bitcoin-leaps-record-high-traders-lean-towards-trump-victory-2024-11-06/

2024-11-06 02:22

MUMBAI, Nov 6 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee declined in the non-deliverable forward market, bogged down by a jump in the dollar index and weakness in Asian peers amid U.S. election updates. The 1-month USD/INR non-deliverable forward was quoted at 84.28/84.32. If these levels were to hold, then the rupee would open at around 84.18, compared to 84.1075 on Tuesday and past its all-time low of 84.1275. The dollar strengthened across the board amid U.S. election updates, which showed Republican candidate Donald Trump ahead of Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. The dollar index climbed 0.84% to 104.24 while the Thai baht, the Korean won and the onshore Chinese yuan were down between 0.5% to 0.8%. These three Asian currencies were considered by analysts to be among the most vulnerable to Trump winning the election. "Dollar is doing well, U.S. yields are on the rise and U.S. equity futures are up. Traders are getting into Trump trades based on what the U.S. election results are so far," a Singapore-based hedge fund portfolio manager said. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was up 10 basis points at 4.38%. U.S. equity futures were up nearly 1%. In the betting , opens new tab market, the odds of a Trump win had climbed to 2-in-3. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/rupee-slips-ndf-market-amid-us-election-updates-2024-11-06/

2024-11-05 23:59

Polls show tight race, Trump leads in betting markets Trump-linked stock sees large swings Palantir soars after results NEW YORK, Nov 5 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks closed sharply higher in a broad rally on Tuesday after data signaled a solid economy, but investors braced for volatile trading this week as voting was underway in an extremely tight U.S. presidential election. The Institute for Supply Management said its non-manufacturing purchasing managers index, a gauge of the services sector, accelerated to 56.0 last month, its highest since August 2022, from 54.9 the prior month and above the 53.8 expected by economists polled by Reuters. The election outcome could take days to be finalized as the latest polls showed the race between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris, which has impacted markets in recent months, was too close to call. The former president's odds improved on Tuesday in betting markets that many investors see as election indicators. "The market continues to try and price for what is the outcome of this election," said Rob Haworth, senior investment strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management in Seattle. "It's been so tight and even if we look at the price range we've been in, we've been in a tight price range, and so what's really moving us is marginal positioning for one result or the other." "Both the bond market and the equity market are looking at Congress as important as well," he added. "Most base cases are for divided government, but this election is so close we could get any outcome. That's the challenge." According to preliminary data, the S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab gained 70.42 points, or 1.23%, to end at 5,783.11 points, while the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) , opens new tab gained 259.19 points, or 1.43%, to 18,439.17. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) , opens new tab rose 431.42 points, or 1.04%, to 42,227.74. Volatility was more pronounced in government debt and currency markets. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield rose more than 10 basis points to a high of 4.366% before paring gains on a solid auction, and was last down slightly on the day. Equity markets avoided Monday's volatility on expectations of a soft landing for the economy, bolstered by corporate earnings, lower interest rates and a resilient labor market. Other economic data on Tuesday showed the trade deficit hit a 2-1/2 year high in September, as domestic demand draws in imports while concerns about higher tariffs under a Trump presidency have led to a front loading of imports by businesses. Still, the CBOE Volatility Index (.VIX) , opens new tab, also known as Wall Street's "Fear Gauge," was slightly higher than its long-term average of 19.46, although it had eased from a near-two month high hit last week of 23.42. Industrials (.SPLRCI) , opens new tab and consumer discretionary (.SPLRCD) , opens new tab led S&P 500 sectors higher. Investors are also keeping an eye on Congressional elections to determine the balance of power in Washington. Many analysts predict a split government, which would limit the ability of the president to enact significant policy changes. Stocks viewed as proxies on a win for the former president experienced large swings, with Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT.O) , opens new tab climbing as much as 18.64% and dropping as much as 8.42%, while also being halted for volatility multiple times. Crypto stocks tracked bitcoin higher, with the cryptocurrency up roughly 4%, as Trump has positioned himself as an ally to the sector. Palantir (PLTR.N) , opens new tab surged to a record high after the data analytics firm raised its annual revenue forecast for the third time. The Federal Reserve will announce its latest policy statement on Thursday. Markets have almost completely priced in a 25-basis point interest rate cut, but the outlook for the path of future easing is less certain given the U.S. economy's strength. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/futures-calm-wall-street-braces-us-election-day-2024-11-05/