2024-11-05 12:23

ANKARA, Nov 5 (Reuters) - A fire at the site of Turkey's top oil refiner Tupras during work on a compressor lightly injured 12 people in the country's northwest, the company said on Tuesday. The fire was under control and the unit was deactivated, Tupras said in a statement, adding that the wounded were sent to hospital in Kocaeli province. Other operations in the refinery carried on as usual, it said. An explosion occurred at the Tupras site, NTV and other media had earlier reported. Footage showed smoke billowing from the site near Istanbul. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/fire-tupras-oil-refinery-turkey-wounds-12-2024-11-05/

2024-11-05 11:52

LONDON, Nov 5 (Reuters) - The pound edged up on Tuesday as traders awaited the outcome of a U.S. election that has proven too close to call for weeks, and separately, the Bank of England's decision on interest rates later in the week. Recent opinion polls have shown Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican former President Donald Trump virtually neck and neck, meaning the outcome might not be clear for days, or even weeks after voting ends. With such immediate uncertainty hanging over the market, currency options volatility shot up on Tuesday, particularly for those currencies that are more sensitive to U.S. trade and foreign policy, such as the euro and Mexican peso. Sterling options vol also rose, pushing overnight and one-week vol - a measure of trader demand for protection against big near-term swings in the pound itself - to their highest since March 2023, when a U.S. regional banking crisis roiled markets. The pound, meanwhile, held reasonably steady in Europe, rising 0.2% to $1.2985. Against the euro , the pound held at 83.91 pence, not far off last week's two-and-a-half month lows after British finance minister Rachel Reeves' high-tax, high-spend and high-borrowing budget plan sparked political and monetary uncertainty. Alongside the budget, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) trimmed its growth forecasts beyond 2025 and forecast UK inflation will average 2.6% in 2025, up from a previous forecast of 1.5% back in March, prompting traders to pare back their bets on a succession of BoE rate cuts. "Uncertainty about the U.S. elections and higher volatility in global markets is also not helping the pound, which is trading on the back foot as it awaits the BoE decision on Thursday," BBVA strategists led by Roberto Cobo said. The BoE is expected to deliver a quarter-point cut to interest rates on Thursday, much the same as the U.S. Federal Reserve, which delivers its own policy decision the same day. But markets reflect a belief among traders that UK rates will fall more slowly than those in the United States or the euro zone in the coming months. By next June, money markets are assuming U.S. and euro zone rates will be a full percentage point lower than they are now, whereas UK rates are only expected to fall by around 75 bps. "We think it's too early for the BoE to pre-commit to a sustained cutting cycle or give clear guidance on the rate path," strategists at Bank of America said. The pound is up 2% against the dollar this year - the only major currency to show any gain against the greenback at all. The offshore Chinese yuan , the runner-up, is roughly flat on the year, while the joint worst performers are the Japanese yen and the Norwegian crown , with a near-8% loss. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/sterling-nudges-up-jittery-trade-us-election-gets-underway-2024-11-05/

2024-11-05 11:50

LONDON, Nov 5 (Reuters) - Britain's Office for Budget Responsibility has shifted from an approach of trust towards the finance ministry to one of "trust but verify" after inaccurate spending forecasts provided before March's budget statement under the last Conservative government. Last week, the OBR said the Treasury had failed to share information about large upward pressures on day-to-day spending and unusually high spending from emergency reserves. "The way I would characterise it is that we are moving from a system of trust to a system of 'trust but verify'," OBR Chair Richard Hughes told the House of Commons' Treasury Committee on Tuesday. "We want to ... make sure that we're satisfied that what happened, the failure of oversight that very clearly happened in March, doesn't happen again." New Labour finance minister Rachel Reeves said the previous government, which oversaw the last budget, had left a 22 billion pound ($29 billion) black hole, requiring her to raise taxes by much more than she had planned before July's election. The Conservatives say most of this hole reflects Labour's choices on public-sector pay or temporary overspending that is routinely recouped in a normal financial year. However, the OBR said that if finance ministry officials had been more open in the run-up to the March budget - as they had been in the past - it would have forecast materially higher spending for the current financial year. "There were about 9.5 billion pounds worth of net pressures on departments' budgets which they did not disclose to us as part of our usual budget preparation process ... which under the law ... they should have done," Hughes said. From now on the OBR will ask for a more detailed breakdown of the finance ministry's spending forecasts, he said. Lawmakers would need to ask the finance ministry at a hearing on Wednesday why it had failed to provide the necessary information, Hughes said. "There may have been a misunderstanding of how the law ought to be interpreted." A Treasury spokesperson said that at the time of the spring budget they "communicated to the OBR the decision that ministers would manage spending pressures by making offsetting savings". "This was within the law," the spokesperson said, adding that they had accepted all recommendations put forward by the OBR in its review of the March 2024 forecast. The OBR said it did not consult former finance minister Jeremy Hunt, who oversaw March's budget, as the review looked into the actions of officials, not ministers. ($1 = 0.7702 pounds) Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-budget-watchdog-adopting-trust-verify-approach-finance-ministry-2024-11-05/

2024-11-05 11:46

Stock futures, dollar, yields point toward bets on Trump win Election results could impact U.S. tax, trade policy Battleground states yet to be called NEW YORK, Nov 5 (Reuters) - Global investors were increasingly pricing in a win late on Tuesday for Republican Donald Trump, as the former president took a lead in U.S. presidential elections, with some battleground states yet to post results. U.S. stock futures and the dollar pushed higher while Treasury yields climbed and bitcoin rose -- all flagged by analysts and investors as trades that favor a Trump win over Democrat Kamala Harris. "Our county by county analysis in key states suggests that Harris is lagging vs 2020, and on this basis it is logical that the market is starting to price a Trump win, as seen in bonds, and the dollar," said Jens Nordvig, CEO at analytical firm Exante. The results so far underscore how one of the most unusual - and tightest - presidential elections in modern U.S. history could have far-reaching implications for tax and trade policy, as well as U.S. institutions. The results affect assets globally and determine the outlook for U.S. debt, the strength of the dollar and a host of industries that make up the backbone of Corporate America. Leading into Tuesday, polls showed a dead heat between the former president and the current vice president. But by 11 pm ET, Trump had won 211 Electoral College votes compared with 145 for Harris, with a third of the vote counted. Republicans also won control of the U.S. Senate, ensuring they will dominate at least one chamber of Congress next year. GROWING CONFIDENCE Despite the uncertainty, popular election betting platforms leaned heavily in Trump's favor, while trades in assets whose prices could be influenced by Trump's pledges to raise tariffs, cut taxes and slash regulations showed growing bets on a Trump victory on Tuesday evening. "The consequence is a higher path of rates," said Nick Ferres, chief investment officer at Vantage Point Asset Management in Singapore. He was buying bank shares in anticipation that higher yields and stronger growth would benefit their earnings. Bank stocks rose 4.4% in Tokyo (.IBNKS.T) , opens new tab and outperformed the market in Australia (.AXFJ) , opens new tab. Shares of Trump Media and Technology Group (DJT.O) , opens new tab surged 10% in extended trade after a volatile day session, while the Mexican peso , which could be hit by tariffs, sank to a two-year low, about 3% weaker than its closing price from the previous session. The euro also fell, fueled by worries that a Trump presidency could mean Europe faces trade tariffs and is forced to pay more for its defence. Bitcoin surged to a record high in Asia trade, betting on a softer line on cryptocurrency regulation. "Markets are growing confident that the election result will be called and that a ‘red sweep’ of Congress is possible," said Ben Emons, founder of Fedwatch Advisors in Washington. Several investors said the results so far suggested markets would have clarity faster than in 2020, when Joe Biden was announced the victor some four days after election night. "That's what markets have been most worried about, that there would be a long, drawn-out fight over who won," said Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group. 'VOLATILE NIGHT' Elsewhere on Wall Street, some bankers, investors and analysts said they were waiting out the count - in some cases anxiously - with friends and family. Alex Jaros, a former investment banker who now works in private credit in New York, was at a watch party at a bar organized by the New York Young Republican Club. "It's looking very positive right now," even though the election has not been called conclusively, Jaros said. The group sold 500 tickets for the packed event, which had a "busy, excited" atmosphere, Jaros said in an interview, as attendees chanted "U-S-A" in the background. Joe McCann, CEO of Asymmetric, a macro hedge fund that trades primarily in cryptocurrencies, said he has been tracking election news on several TV screens and monitoring market movements in his 50th floor Miami penthouse. "We have not left this room all day," he said. "We are expecting a volatile night." Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/anxious-global-investors-brace-long-awaited-us-election-results-2024-11-05/

2024-11-05 11:45

TSX ends up 0.54% at 24,387.9 Financials rise 0.79%; tech gains 0.72% Thomson Reuters adds 3.24% after earnings beat Restaurant Brands down 3.12% as results miss estimates Nov 5 (Reuters) - Canada's main stock index rose for a third straight day on Tuesday, helped by gains for technology and financial shares, as investors awaited the outcome of the U.S. presidential election and looked ahead to a Federal Reserve interest rate decision. The S&P/TSX composite index (.GSPTSE) , opens new tab ended up 131.84 points, or 0.54%, at 24,387.9, adding to a modest winning streak since posting on Thursday its lowest closing level in more than three weeks. "Right now, the markets are in wait-and-see mode," said Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management. "Wait and see what happens with the U.S. election, and wait and see what happens with the Fed." The presidential contest between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris hurtled toward an uncertain finish as millions of Americans headed to the polls to choose between two sharply different visions for the country. Canada sends 75% of its exports to the United States. The nation posted a higher-than-expected trade deficit of C$1.26 billion ($908 million) in September mainly on account of lower prices. The U.S. central bank is expected to lower its key interest rate by a quarter percentage point at a policy announcement on Thursday. The heavily weighted financials sector (.SPTTFS) , opens new tab, dominated by big five banks, rose 0.79% and technology (.SPTTTK) , opens new tab was up 0.72%. Industrials (.GSPTTIN) , opens new tab also notched gains, adding 0.77%, as shares of Thomson Reuters Corp (TRI.TO) , opens new tab climbed 3.24% after the company reported quarterly results ahead of analysts' expectations. Energy (.SPTTEN) , opens new tab edged down 0.02% as the price of oil settled 0.72% higher at $75.59 a barrel. Restaurant Brands International Inc (QSR.TO) , opens new tab was among the stocks that lost ground. Its shares fell 3.12% after the Burger King parent missed market estimates for quarterly results. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/tsx-futures-rise-crude-prices-us-election-spotlight-2024-11-05/

2024-11-05 11:34

Sardinia accounts for 40% of Italian sheep farming Spread of bluetongue virus supported by global warming Failed vaccinations due to multiple virus strains Virus killed 40,000 sheep in 2024, just 5,000 in 2023 Farmers call for government compensation amid severe losses ROME, Nov 5 (Reuters) - On the island of Sardinia, a bedrock of Italian sheep farming, breeder Michela Dessi has seen 150 of her flock die and 140 lose their lambs in the last few months due to an insect-borne disease called bluetongue that is ravaging local livestock. Sardinia is home to three million sheep, almost double the number of people, and accounts for 40% of Italy's sheep population. The industry employs more than 27,000 people and is an intrinsic part of the Mediterranean island's cultural identity, thanks to products such as the salty "pecorino" cheese made with sheep's milk. All of this is threatened by the viral infection, which has hit around a quarter of Sardinia's 13,000 sheep farms this year, killing 40,000 sheep and lambs, compared to just 5,000 in 2023. "The sheep start to get sick, lame, come down with fever, and die after a few hours or days, sometimes suffocated by their own saliva," said Dessi, who has been running the family farm in the south of the island since 2007, with 600 sheep. Other symptoms of the disease, which also affects cattle with less deadly consequences, are mouth ulcers, discharge from the mouth and nose, and the blueness of the tongue from which it gets its name. Bluetongue outbreaks have occurred in several parts of Europe in recent months, helped by global warming, which favours the proliferation of the vector insect - but nowhere with such a devastating impact as in Sardinia. The disease, which does not affect humans or the safety of animal meat or milk, was first reported in the 18th century in South Africa and arrived in Italy in 2000. The vehicle for the virus is a tiny 1-3 millimetre-long insect called Culicoides, which is now prospering not only in summer but also into the autumn as the Mediterranean basin becomes hotter. "Sardinia has been particularly affected, with an exponential contagion we have never seen before" said Luca Saba, the local head of the Italian agriculture lobby group Coldiretti. "And the emergency is far from over". FAILED VACCINATIONS The many strains of the virus are thwarting attempts to halt its spread through vaccination. "There are 27 serotypes in the world and we cannot know if a different one will appear from one year to the next," said Sandro Rolesu, health director of the Experimental Zooprophylactic Institute of Sardinia. "We were vaccinating for type 8, which was present last year, and we ended up with type 3," he said, adding that Italy will be vaccinating for type 3 next year. Giovanni Filippini, head of the health ministry's animal welfare department, said the government is working on an emergency plan "based on predictive models that can prevent the spread" of bluetongue, but declined to provide details. Meanwhile farmers already hit by one of Sardinia's driest ever summers are counting the cost and calling on Rome for financial help. Sardinia's agriculture chief Gianfranco Satta said the island's regional government had set aside 13.5 million euros ($14.7 million) to compensate affected farmers, but Coldiretti estimates losses as high as 25 million. "We are on our knees and companies are closing," said Roberto Congia, an official with the Sardinian Shepherds' Movement, a local lobby group. ($1 = 0.9246 euros) Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/bluetongue-virus-threatens-sardinias-historic-sheep-farming-industry-2024-11-05/