2024-11-04 19:08

Nov 4 (Reuters) - U.S. energy company Glenfarne Group LLC said on Monday it had selected construction contractor Kiewit to build its proposed Texas LNG export terminal in Brownsville, Texas. The proposed terminal has the capacity to turn about 0.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of natural gas into 4 million tonnes per annum of liquefied natural gas. Glenfarne said it would work with Kiewit to meet the requirements needed to achieve a final investment decision (FID). The company was expected to begin construction by November 2024 and commercial operations by 2028. However, in May it asked federal energy regulators to give it until 2029 to put its plant into service. Earlier this month, Glenfarne said it had already secured enough supply agreements in a volume sufficient for achieving an FID, including agreements with EQT Corp (EQT.N) , opens new tab, Gunvor Group, and Macquarie Group . Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/glenfarne-selects-kiewit-build-texas-lng-export-plant-2024-11-04/

2024-11-04 16:54

Nov 4 (Reuters) - Donald Trump is a clear favorite to beat Kamala Harris - that's if you put your faith in prediction markets, the latest frontier for the indefatigable crypto speculator. On the eve of the U.S. election, billions of crypto dollars are chasing bets on the two candidates on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. Those sites respectively gave Trump about a 57%-43% and 51%-49% lead over Harris as of Monday, in contrast to neck-and neck opinion polls. Polymarket, the busiest of these platforms, which have largely sprung up over the past five years, has seen about $3.1 billion in trading volume on wagers on the winner of the presidential vote. Kalshi, a U.S. CFTC-regulated site, has seen nearly $197 million in trading on its election outcome contract. Its second-largest betting contract, on the electoral college margin, has drawn $33.8 million. Participants and watchers are divided over whether such markets, where prices offered are shaped by the weight of bets, are a robust leading indicator or are distorted by large bets and reflect the views of a niche crypto club. Elon Musk , opens new tab, for one, has said betting markets are "more accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line" and mainstream news sites are citing their odds. Many people aren't convinced, though. "Your average voter isn't spending time or money on prediction markets – those platforms are being dominated by crypto-native users, and those users are voting for Trump," said Michael Cahill, CEO of Web3-focused developer Douro Labs. The pricing on these sites reflects the assumed probability of the outcome. On Polymarket, for example, a wager betting on a Trump win costs about $0.58 versus $0.42 for Harris. The buyer of the winning horse receives $1 per contract. A Kalshi spokesperson said all traders are all vetted, and trades are capped at $7 million for people and $100 million for eligible contract participants. Crypto exchange dYdX, meanwhile, allows more complex leveraged betting on both a Trump and Harris win via perpetual futures linked to Polymarket's odds. 'BIG TEST' AFTER U.S. ELECTION Adam McCarthy, research analyst at digital market data provider Kaiko, said that the headline figure of Polymarket bets on the election didn't equate to the amount of money that was currently still at stake because it also included inactive bets on former candidates like Nikki Haley and RFK Jr. "That $2 billion cumulative headline figure looks impressive and obviously for a brand new platform it is, but that doesn't reflect active markets entirely," McCarthy added. Trading volume on bets for Trump or Harris winning the presidency make up about $1.97 billion of the $3.1 billion in volume on Polymarket's presidential winner contract, the platform's data shows. Polymarket has also that said a French national was a mystery bettor placing especially large bets on Donald Trump via the platform. U.S. nationals are not allowed to trade on the platform due to regulatory restrictions. The betting on the U.S. election has dwarfed anything seen before on these young platforms, which offer customers myriad prospective wagers, from the outcome of the next Federal Reserve meeting to whether Taylor Swift will release a new album this year or who the next James Bond will be. For example, Polymarket's total volume was $1.1 billion in the month of October - it's most active month in its history by far - and is around $200,000 so far this month, according to data from Dune Analytics. Kaiko's McCarthy said it was uncertain how these sites would fare after Nov. 5: "There's a big test on how they manage to stay relevant after the election." Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/cryptoverse-us-election-punters-play-prediction-markets-2024-11-04/

2024-11-04 16:25

Majority see 50 bps cut to 2.75% from 3.25% Three of 20 analysts see quarter point cut to 3.00% Central bank announces decision 0830 GMT on Nov. 7 Link to data: STOCKHOLM, Nov 4 (Reuters) - Sweden's central bank is likely to cut its policy rate by half a percentage point to 2.75% when it meets this week, aiming to boost the weak economy and keep inflation from undershooting the 2% target, a Reuters poll of analysts showed on Monday. An overwhelming majority of the 20 analysts in the poll saw a half point cut on Nov. 7 with just three expecting a more modest quarter-point move. "The lack of signs of recovery should weigh on the decision of the Board ... and lead to a proactive decision of a 50 basis point cut, bringing Riksbank to 2.75%," Morgan Stanley said in a note. At its September meeting, the third cut this year, the Riksbank said it expected further easing ahead. Quarter-point cuts are the main scenario, but Governor Erik Thedeen said a half-percentage point reduction was possible in either November or December. Since then, the pace of inflation - which peaked at over 10% in late 2022 - has slowed to just 1.1% in September, while the economy has stuttered. The gloomy outlook prompted Riksbank Deputy Governor Per Jansson to warn last month there was a risk inflation would fall too low if the economy did not pick up speed. Analysts envisaged the policy rate ending the year at 2.50% and hitting a low of 2.00% in mid-year 2025, though several said rates could fall faster. Uncertainty is high, however. The U.S. election on Nov. 5 casts a long shadow over the outlook with a victory by former President Donald Trump seen as having the biggest consequences for European economies and currencies. Several analysts said a big sell-off in the Swedish crown if Trump wins could make the Riksbank more cautious. In the longer term, tariffs and the need to increase spending on defence if the U.S. steps back from NATO could lead to higher inflation. Central banks are also moving in opposite directions with markets expecting fewer rate cuts in the United States and but more in the euro zone, leaving a difficult landscape for the Riksbank to navigate. Sweden's central bank will announce its rate decision at 0830 GMT on Nov. 7. It will not give any forecasts for rates or the economy this time, but Thedeen will give comments at 0900 GMT at a news conference. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/swedens-riksbank-seen-making-half-percentage-point-rate-cut-2024-11-04/

2024-11-04 13:53

Nov. 4 (Reuters) - The British pound bounced against a tepid dollar on Monday ahead of high-stakes events this week that include U.S. elections and a Bank of England interest rate decision. Sterling rose 0.4% to $1.297, coming off of its longest string of weekly losses in nearly six years. It fell to a two-and-a-half month low of $1.284 last week as British finance minister Rachel Reeves' high-tax, high-spend and high-borrowing budget plan sparked political and monetary uncertainty. Alongside the budget, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) trimmed its growth forecasts beyond 2025 and forecast UK inflation will average 2.6% in 2025, up from a previous forecast of 1.5% back in March, prompting traders to pare back their BoE rate cut bets. In an action-packed week, attention will be on both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England policy meetings. Both central banks are widely expected to deliver a quarter-point rate cut on Thursday respectively with the possibility of another similar move in December. Investors will pay particular attention to comments from BoE Governor Andrew Bailey to see if he offers any view on the government's spending plan. "Recent Budget and OBR's growth and inflation forecast have put a question mark on the BoE's need to be more aggressive," said Mohit Kumar, chief economist for Europe at Jefferies. "We expect Bailey to leave the door open for another cut in December, but tone down his recent dovish rhetoric." Against the euro, sterling dipped slightly to 84.05 pence. The dollar index dipped to a two-week low against a basket of currencies as investors took some profits after a poll showed U.S. Vice President Harris with marginal leads in Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin and former President Trump just ahead in Arizona, some of the battleground states that decide the U.S. outcome. Nationally, Harris and Trump are seen locked in a tight race for the White House ahead of Election Day on Tuesday. The dollar in recent weeks was supported by bets on a Trump victory, which would mean higher tariffs and thus higher prices, causing the Federal Reserve to halt or slow its easing cycle. A gauge of expected volatility over the next week in sterling jumped as investors braced for the highly uncertain election, which could lead to big changes in trade policy and swings in the dollar. One-week implied options volatility - a measure of demand to protect against large moves in the pound over the coming week that includes Tuesday's U.S. vote and Thursday's BoE rate decision, was at 11.8%. It was just off of last week's more than seven-month peak of 12.8%. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/sterling-extends-bounce-off-recent-lows-us-election-focus-2024-11-04/

2024-11-04 12:31

Spain sends 7,500 soldiers to flood-hit Valencia region Valencia region to ask Madrid for 31.4 bln euros in aid Rescuers use drones and pumps in search for more bodies Barcelona area hit by heavy rains, flights cancelled Protests planned over delays in disaster response PAIPORTA, Spain, Nov 4 (Reuters) - Another 2,500 soldiers arrived in the flood-hit east of Spain on Monday to reinforce efforts to locate bodies and clear debris, as government officials traded blame over how the worst flooding in decades has been handled and as first aid packages were being readied. Public anger is mounting over the disaster that has killed at least 217 people with dozens of others still unaccounted for. Almost all of the deaths occurred in the Valencia region and more than 60 in the suburb of Paiporta. The army sent about 5,000 soldiers over the weekend to help distribute food and water, clean up streets and guard against looters and a further 2,500 would join them, Defence Minister Margarita Robles told state-owned radio RNE. A warship with 104 marine infantry soldiers as well as trucks with food and water arrived in Valencia port even as a strong hailstorm pummelled Barcelona some 300 km (186 miles) to the north. On Monday evening, Spanish minister Felix Bolanos from the Socialist Party said Tuesday's cabinet would declare some of the worst hit villages by the floods in the regions of Valencia, Andalusia, Castile La Mancha and Catalonia as "severely affected areas" so that they can be entitled to emergency funds. He added that the government would approve on Tuesday a package of relief measures to help people cope with the situation without giving further details. Later, the regional head of Valencia, Carlos Mazon, said that his region would separately hand out each household 6,000 euros ($6,524) and make available at least 200,000 euros to help each town face urgent spending needs. In total, Mazon, of the conservative People's Party, said the region would request from Spain's central government a first aid package worth around 31.4 billion euros, including funds to reconstruct key infrastructure. On Monday, airport operator AENA said about 50 flights due to take off from Barcelona's partially flooded El Prat airport were cancelled or severely delayed, while 17 due to land there were diverted. Some local train services were also cancelled. Rescuers used drones and water pumps to search and clear underground carparks and garages. They also scanned river mouths where currents may have deposited more bodies. "With these drones we can send them inside the garages and have a first visual of what's going on," police spokesperson Ricardo Gutierrez said. Opposition politicians accused the left-wing central government of acting too slowly to warn residents and send in rescuers. Mazon on Monday had previously said the Hydrographic Confederation of Jucar (CHJ), which measures the flow of rivers and ravines for the state, had cancelled a planned alert three times. But Madrid said the CHJ does not issue flood risk alerts, which are the responsibility of Spain's regional governments. DELAYED RESPONSE Locals criticised late alerts from authorities about the dangers and a perceived delayed response by emergency services. But General Javier Marcos, commander of the army's emergency response services, said he had ordered 500 soldiers to be deployed within 15 minutes of seeing the flood warning on Tuesday who were able to enter hard-hit areas. "The degree of destruction is so great that mobility is limited," he said. "It is so complex that it requires two things: discipline and patience." On Sunday, some residents in Paiporta slung mud at Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and King Felipe and his wife, Queen Letizia, chanting: "murderers, murderers!" The prime minister was also struck during the protests, Interior Minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska said in an interview on TVE, blaming a handful of extremists for the trouble. "The majority of people gathered are absolutely peaceful people who have lost everything and whose anger we evidently understand," Grande-Marlaska said. Locals in Paiporta said anger boiled over because they felt authorities were using them for a photo opportunity. They denied that the crowd was full of extremists. Belen, a 50-year-old supermarket cashier who lost both her cars during the flood, said she was angry with both the national and regional governments about how slowly help has arrived. "That's what hurts us, that they only come here for a photo," she said. "They're all the same dog with different collars. They're all scum." A protest planned in Valencia on Saturday will call for Mazon to step down. A daily protest in Madrid outside the headquarters of Sanchez's Socialist party drew more people on Sunday, about 600, due to anger over the floods, according to El Pais newspaper. The anger vented against all sides reflects a general disillusionment with the political class, analysts at Eurointelligence wrote in a note on Monday. "If the aftermath turns into a big finger-pointing exercise, it will probably deepen that anti-politics sentiment," it said. Lack of clarity over the numbers of dead and missing has added to frustration. A landline has been set up for relatives to report the missing, with the government saying "dozens and dozens" are still unaccounted for. Coroner services on Monday said 190 autopsies had been performed, and 111 people identified. The midweek torrential rains caused rivers to swell, engulfing streets and ground floors of buildings, and sweeping away cars and masonry in tides of mud. Sonia Luque, coordinator of the Network of Road Assistance Companies (REAC), said more than 100,000 cars were damaged. It was the worst flood-related disaster in Europe in five decades. Scientists say extreme weather is more frequent due to climate change. Meteorologists think the warming of the Mediterranean, which increases water evaporation, plays a key role in making torrential rains more severe. ($1 = 0.9196 euros) Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/spain-deploys-7500-troops-flood-zone-where-anger-rises-slow-help-2024-11-04/

2024-11-04 12:30

NAPERVILLE, Illinois, Nov 3 (Reuters) - Speculators reversed course in the Chicago corn market last week, scrapping what had been relatively fresh short bets as U.S. corn export demand hits a fever pitch. Chicago grain and oilseed futures were down across the board in the week ended Oct. 29. That included corn , which slid fractionally during the period despite having been up as much as 2%. However, money managers slashed their net short position in CBOT corn futures and options to 17,703 contracts as of Oct. 29, down nearly 54,000 contracts on the week. That marked funds’ least bearish corn view since the beginning of August 2023. Short covering accounted for 75% of that move, a flip from the prior two weeks during which investors boosted gross short positions. Money managers in the latest week also added gross corn longs, which are now the most plentiful since February 2023. U.S. corn export sales hit three-and-a-half-year highs in the week ended Oct. 17, and the following week also featured well-above-average bookings. Between Monday and Friday, a total of 1.23 million metric tons of 2024-25 U.S. corn sales were confirmed via the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s daily reporting system. SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS While U.S. corn is an attractive option for global importers, U.S. soybean exporters still face headwinds from ample Brazilian supplies and moderate Chinese demand. Some market participants worry that the outcome of Tuesday’s U.S. Presidential election could eventually threaten U.S. trade, specifically soybean exports to China. CBOT January soybeans eased 2% in the week ended Oct. 29, and money managers increased their net short to 72,226 CBOT soybean futures and options contracts versus 59,574 a week earlier. CBOT soybean meal plunged 5% in the week ended Oct. 29. That was associated with a record weekly selloff by money managers, who cut their net long by nearly 44,000 futures and options contracts to just 12,898 contracts. They slightly reduced their CBOT soyoil net long, which fell to 37,527 futures and options contracts on a 2% decline in most-active futures. However, CBOT soyoil surged more than 8% between Wednesday and Friday on strength in global vegoils. Malaysian palm oil futures on Friday hit their highest levels in more than two years while CBOT soyoil notched near-four-month highs. CBOT soymeal slipped further in the last three sessions, on Friday reaching the most-active contract’s lowest price since Aug. 13, 2020. WHEAT AND BEYOND Money managers’ bearish views in CBOT wheat futures and options hit eight-week-highs in the week ended Oct. 29, and the resulting net short of 31,172 contracts was up about 2,300 on the week. Wheat traders continue to monitor exports out of top supplier Russia, which are expected to ease this month versus last. Conditions for the newly sown 2025 U.S. winter wheat crop are the second worst on record for the time of year. Aside from Tuesday’s election, market watchers will be preparing for Friday’s monthly supply and demand report from the USDA, which will include updates to U.S. corn and soybean production. Harvest paces for those crops are the fastest in more than a decade. USDA on Thursday will be releasing select tables from its annual baseline projections that will be published in February 2025. Thursday’s tables will offer a first look at 2025-26 U.S. balance sheets, and planted area projections could be of most interest at this early stage. Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/funds-assemble-least-bearish-cbot-corn-view-since-august-2023-2024-11-04/