2024-11-04 06:32

RIYADH, Nov 4 (Reuters) - Saudi Basic Industries Corp (SABIC) (2010.SE) , opens new tab, one of the world's biggest petrochemicals companies, on Monday swung to a net profit for the third quarter from a loss a year earlier, driven by higher revenue and core profit. The company said in a statement its net profit for the three-month period ended Sept. 30 came in at 1 billion riyals ($266.27 million), against a loss of 2.87 billion riyals last year. The third-quarter profit, however, missed analyst expectations of 1.6 billion riyals, according to LSEG data. Net income in the reported period fell to 1 billion riyal ($266.27 million) from the previous quarter's 2.18 billion riyals. Petrochemical producers in Europe and Asia in recent years have been impacted by top market China's capacity build-up as well as high energy costs in Europe, which dented margins and forced firms to consolidate. The sector's weakness is concerning for the global oil industry, which is relying on petrochemicals to maintain profits as transportation fuel demand declines during the energy transition. SABIC, which is 70% owned by oil giant Aramco (2222.SE) , opens new tab, flagged in August its long-term focus would remained on "strategic portfolio optimisation" and restructuring underperforming assets. SABIC plans to sell a 20.6% minority stake in Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) (ALBH.BH) , opens new tab to Saudi mining firm Ma'aden for around $1 billion to help raise funds and expand its core chemicals business. ($1 = 3.7556 riyals) Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/petrochemicals-firm-sabic-swings-profit-q3-misses-analysts-forecasts-2024-11-04/

2024-11-04 06:18

Wall Street notches slim gains ahead of Tuesday's US election European shares flat Treasury yields fall as investors temper Trump victory trade Dollar falls as Kamala Harris takes lead in Iowa poll Markets also eye Fed rate review, China NPC meet NEW YORK/LONDON, Nov 4 (Reuters) - The dollar softened and stocks fell on Monday as investors treaded carefully hours before the U.S. presidential election, with a U.S. Federal Reserve interest-rate cut also expected later in the week. In the U.S. presidential race, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump remain virtually tied in opinion polls ahead of Tuesday's vote. It might not be clear who won for days after voting ends. Trump's policies on immigration, tax cuts and tariffs may put upward pressure on inflation, bond yields and the dollar, analysts say, while Harris is seen as the continuity candidate. "We are too evenly divided and polarized to suggest a red sweep," Frank Luntz, Republican consultant and pollster, told the Reuters Global Markets Forum. "The Senate looks like it will swing Republican, but the presidency and the house are simply too close to call." MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) , opens new tab was flat, while the dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, was also unchanged at 103.91. The dollar slid against a host of European and Asian currencies, losing 0.38% against the euro to $1.087, and falling 0.5% against the Japanese yen to 152.17. In the U.S. Treasury market, which has priced for a Trump victory in the past month that sent yields shooting higher, traders squared positions after a poll showed Harris with a surprise lead in Iowa. U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year note fell 6.8 basis points to 4.2948% . The U.S. two-year Treasury yield fell for the first time in six days, down 3.2 bps at 4.1723% . On Wall Street, the S&P 500 Index (.SPX) , opens new tab lost 0.28%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) , opens new tab dropped 0.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) , opens new tab fell 0.3%. European stocks (.STOXX) , opens new tab lost 0.3%, despite gains in energy stocks (.SXEP) , opens new tab following a decision by OPEC+ to delay plans to increase output that pushed up oil prices. "Tomorrow will shape the direction of the world economy and geopolitics for the next four years," Deutsche Bank analysts wrote. They cautioned that "there remains a large degree of uncertainty around both the result, including the very tight House (of Representatives) race, and when we will know it." RATES FOCUS The week will also provide investors with global monetary policy catalysts. The most closely watched of a slew of rate decisions is the Fed, while decisions are also due from the Bank of England, the Reserve Bank of Australia, Sweden's Riksbank and Norway's Norges Bank. Markets are leaning toward a 25-bps Fed rate cut. "Based on current data, we see no reason for (the Federal Open Market Committee) to rush through rate cuts," said analysts at ANZ. "The election and uncertainty over the future fiscal path also support arguments for caution in recalibrating monetary policy." Earlier, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) , opens new tab rose 0.7%, recovering from its fall to a five-week low on Friday. This week's meeting of China's powerful National People's Congress standing committee is at the top of investors' radar. The NPC meets from Monday to Friday, and any further details on a raft of recently announced stimulus measures are in focus. Chinese blue-chip stocks (.CSI300) , opens new tab gained 1.4%, with the Shanghai Composite Index (.SSEC) , opens new tab up 1.2%. Reuters reported that at the NPC meeting China is considering approving the issuance of more than 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) in extra debt in the next few years to revive its fragile economy, a fiscal package that is expected to be further bolstered if Trump wins the election. The Bank of England, which meets on Thursday, is expected to ease rates by 25 bps. Its decision has been complicated by a sell-off in gilts following the Labour government's budget last week. Sterling nudged 0.3% higher to $1.295, helped by a weaker dollar. It fell 0.3% last week. Oil prices rose after OPEC+ said on Sunday it would delay a planned December output hike by one month. Brent futures rose 3.1% to $75.34. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude added 3.2% to $71.73. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/global-markets-wrapup-1-2024-11-04/

2024-11-04 06:09

JAKARTA, Nov 4 (Reuters) - Indonesia is conducting a thorough exercise to reform its fuel subsidy scheme, its energy minister said on Monday, as the new president looks to rein-in subsidies that amounted to about 16% of budget spending last year. Bahlil Lahadalia said the policy on the liquefied petroleum gas subsidy will not be changed while the government is carefully calculating details on fuel and electricity subsidies. "For electricity and fuel subsidies, we are still doing a thorough exercise because we need to be careful," Bahlil told reporters. Indonesia currently subsidises certain types of fuel and electricity tariffs, a policy that has kept inflation low but has exposed state coffers to swings in global oil prices. President Prabowo Subianto has planned to cut energy subsidies and will instead give cash handouts to families in need, according to his key economic adviser. The plan is expected to save up to 200 trillion rupiah ($12.71 billion) with well-targeted energy subsidies. Indonesia's fuel subsidies amounted to 500 trillion rupiah ($31.78 billion) last year. Bahlil said he aims to report the new subsidy scheme formulation to Prabowo in about a week. ($1 = 15,740.0000 rupiah) Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/indonesia-conducting-thorough-exercise-reform-fuel-subsidy-scheme-minister-says-2024-11-04/

2024-11-04 05:42

Trump win would bring gold closer to $2,900, says UBS analyst Gold up 33% so far this year Silver touches more than two-week low Nov 4 (Reuters) - Gold prices were little changed on Monday as investor caution prevailed ahead of the U.S. presidential election and looming Federal Reserve decision on interest rates. Spot gold held its ground to stand at $2,738.27 an ounce at 1053 GMT, having hit a record high of $2,790.15 last Thursday. U.S. gold futures were down 0.1% at $2,747.10. The U.S. presidential election is on Tuesday, with opinion polls showing Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump neck and neck . "The driver for gold this week will be the U.S. election. The Fed cut is unlikely to trigger much movement in my view, as the bank is likely to signal further cuts in line with market expectations," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. "We believe a Trump victory would bring the gold price closer to our $2,900 per ounce target more quickly, while a Harris win could see gold temporarily dropping." The U.S. central bank rate decision and Chair Jerome Powell's remarks are due on Thursday. Traders give close to a 100% chance of a quarter-point rate cut, the CME FedWatch tool , opens new tab shows. Bullion has gained 33% this year and hit multiple record peaks along the way. It is traditionally seen as a hedge against economical and political uncertainty and tends to do well when interest rates are low. The dollar index (.DXY) , opens new tab was down 0.6%, hitting a two-week low. A weaker U.S. currency makes dollar-priced gold more appealing for buyers holding other currencies. In top metals consumer China, the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress meets over Nov. 4-8, with markets widely expecting the approval of more fiscal stimulus. Among other metals, spot silver rose 0.9% to $32.73 an ounce after touching a more than two-week low at $32.26. Platinum gained 0.7% to $999.55 while palladium firmed by 0.9% to $1,107.00. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/gold-steady-markets-brace-us-election-likely-fed-rate-cut-2024-11-04/

2024-11-04 05:40

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole. The early action Monday has been in currencies as the dollar took a knock from a new poll in Iowa showing Democratic presidential contender Kamala Harris leading Republican Donald Trump. That was enough to see the dollar down 0.9% on the yen and 0.6% on the euro, while the trade-sensitive Aussie bounced 0.8%. Analysts tend to assume Trump's policies on immigration, tariffs and tax cuts would put a lot more upward pressure on the U.S. dollar and yields, than a Harris victory. Of particular note was the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll which surprised everyone by showing Harris up 3 points on Trump in the state, a major shift from a few weeks ago. This poll has a very good track record and is considered a bellwether for votes across the swing states. "Since last week, Harris is seeing a boost in the polls, highlighted by the Selzer Poll of Iowa where some are using as a proxy for performance among the Blue Wall battleground states (Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin)," JPMorgan said in a note. Betting site PredictIT showed Harris at 53 cents to Trump on 51 cents - what investors are willing to wager for a chance to win $1 - compared to 42 cents to 61 cents just a week ago. The average of opinion polls is still too close to call and it's quite possible the result of the vote may not be known on Wednesday. In 2020, for instance, Pennsylvania was not called until the Saturday after the election. There could also be court challenges to results which might drag on for weeks. Markets assume the Federal Reserve will go ahead and cut rates on Thursday no matter the outcome, with futures implying a 98% chance of 25 basis points. They are also pricing an 80% probability of another quarter point in December, though that could easily change depending on who becomes president-elect. The Bank of England is also expected to cut by a quarter point on Thursday, while the Riksbank is seen easing by 50 basis points. Norges Bank and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) are seen on hold this week. The other market mover on Monday was oil, which bounced 1.4% or so after OPEC+ said on Sunday it would delay a planned December output hike by one month. This was the second time it has extended a 2.2 million bpd cut and only goes to show how worried they are about global demand. Asia in particular has been weak with crude imports in the first 10 months of the year down 200,000 bpd from the same period in 2023, according to LSEG data. Key developments that could influence markets on Monday: - Participation by ECB President Christine Lagarde and ECB Board Member Piero Cipollone in Eurogroup meeting - ECB members appearing include Elizabeth McCaul, Frank Elderson, Christodoulos Patsalides and Claudia Buch - Final EZ manufacturing PMIs for October - U.S. durable goods, factory orders for September Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/global-markets-view-europe-2024-11-04/

2024-11-04 05:26

SEOUL, Nov 4 (Reuters) - South Korea's S-Oil (010950.KS) , opens new tab, whose main shareholder is Saudi Aramco (2222.SE) , opens new tab, on Monday said it expects fourth-quarter regional refining margin to regain momentum from seasonal demand growth under limited supply conditions. Over the July-September period, the refiner said it operated the crude distillation units (CDUs) at its 669,000 barrels-per-day (bpd) oil refinery in the southeastern city of Ulsan at 93.3% of capacity, the same level as in the first half of 2024. S-Oil said in an earnings presentation that it plans to shut its No.1 CDU in the fourth quarter for scheduled maintenance. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/s-oil-expects-q4-refining-margin-regain-momentum-2024-11-04/