2024-11-01 12:01

LONDON, Nov 1 (Reuters) - British households' expectations for inflation over the next 12 months rose again in October, adding to the likelihood that the Bank of England will only cut interest rates once a quarter, a monthly survey from Citi and YouGov showed on Friday. The survey showed expectations for inflation in a year's time rose to 3.3% in October from 3.2%, up from a trough of 2.6% in June. For five to 10 years' time, expectations rose to 3.8% in October from 3.6% and are 0.8 percentage points above June's low. "For the Monetary Policy Committee this is likely to provide continued reason for caution, implying quarterly rate cuts in the near-term," Citi economist Benjamin Nabarro said. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-year-ahead-public-inflation-expectations-rise-33-oct-citiyougov-survey-shows-2024-11-01/

2024-11-01 11:54

TORONTO, Nov 1 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar is expected to rally against its U.S. counterpart in the coming year as lower borrowing costs boost the domestic economy but the result of the U.S. presidential election could unsettle the outlook, a Reuters poll found. According to the median forecast of 40 foreign exchange analysts in the Oct. 28–Nov. 1 poll the loonie will strengthen 2.4% to 1.36 per U.S. dollar, or 73.53 U.S. cents, by end-January compared to the 1.3514 expected in last month's poll. In a year, the currency was predicted to advance 5.5% to 1.32, versus 1.3275 seen previously. "Our forecast for a stronger Canadian dollar is based on the fact the Fed should catch up in its interest rate cutting cycle and the Canadian economy should recover quite strongly as the Bank of Canada cuts rates," said Kyle Chapman, FX markets analyst at Ballinger Group in London. On Tuesday, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said the central bank is starting to see the impact on the economy of its easing. The BoC has cut its benchmark interest rate by one and a quarter percentage points since early June to 3.75%. Canada's economy is particularly sensitive to interest rate levels due to a short mortgage cycle and high household debt. At 184% of net disposable income in 2023, household debt was the highest by far in the G7, according to OECD data. The Canadian dollar weakened around 3% in October, its biggest monthly decline since September 2022. On Thursday, it touched a near three-month low at 1.3945. One potential wild card for the currency is the outcome of the U.S. presidential election on Tuesday. Republican candidate Donald Trump has proposed sweeping tariffs on imported goods. Canada sends about 75% of its exports to the United States. "The election is a fork in the road ... If we get a Trump presidency then perhaps the recovery wouldn't be nearly as strong as we're expecting right now," Chapman said. (Other stories from the November Reuters foreign exchange poll) Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/canadian-dollar-seen-higher-if-economy-rebounds-2024-11-01/

2024-11-01 11:52

More than 90% of power restored in affected areas Region summons volunteers on Saturday Death toll likely to rise as search for missing continues Some areas still cut off by blocked roads ALFAFAR, Spain, Nov 1 (Reuters) - More than 90% of the households in eastern Spain hit by catastrophic floods that killed at least 205 had regained power on Friday, utility Iberdrola said, though thousands still lacked electricity in cut-off areas that rescuers struggled to reach. Spanish rescuers opened a temporary morgue in a convention centre and battled to reach areas still cut off on Friday as the death toll rose to 205 people, most of them in Valencia, the eastern region that bore the brunt of the devastation. Some 500 soldiers were deployed to search for people who are still missing and help survivors of the storm, which triggered a fresh weather alert in the Balearic Islands, Catalonia and Valencia, where rains are expected to continue during the weekend. Officials said the death toll is likely to keep rising. It is already Spain's worst flood-related disaster in modern history and the deadliest to hit Europe since the 1970s. Emergency services working to clear cars piled up at the entrance of a flooded underpass in the suburbs feared finding more trapped bodies. "We're trying to remove vehicles bit by bit to see if there are victims," one rescue worker told state television. "We don't know." Resident Isabel Santiago, 49, watched the scene with tears in her eyes: "There have been so many losses, which could have been avoided. There must be a lot of people in that tunnel because they didn't have time to get out. This is inhuman." Valencia's regional government said people seeking to help should gather at the capital's Arts and Sciences museum complex at 7 a.m. on Saturday to ease coordination. On Friday, regional leader Carlos Mazon urged volunteers to stay put, saying the large numbers on the streets were hampering rescue and clean-up efforts. In order to avoid any road-blocking, the government said all movements in the area would be restricted on Saturday, except for major reasons such as health, legal or work issues. "You are being a great example, a great explosion of solidarity. We still need you," he said on a video posted on his X account. In Alfafar, a suburb outside the city of Valencia, Spain's third-largest, drone footage showed the tangled wreckage of dozens of vehicles strewn across rail tracks. "It's all destroyed, shops, supermarkets, schools, cars," said local resident Patricia Villar. Close by, a boat that had been carried by the floodwaters lay on a muddy street corner. A YEAR OF RAIN A year's worth of rain fell within just eight hours on Tuesday night, destroying roads, railway tracks and bridges as rivers burst their banks. The flooding also submerged thousands of hectares (acres) of farmland in the region, which produces nearly two-thirds of citrus fruit in Spain - the world's top exporter of oranges. "The magnitude of the catastrophe has no precedent," Transport Minister Oscar Puente told local television. While the waters have subsided in most parts of Valencia, emergency services have still not been able to reach a few areas due to blocked roads. They included Albal, a neighbourhood close to Alfafar, one resident said. Supplies of bottled drinking water were running low in some places and residents in the Valencia suburb of Paiporta were taking turns to guard shops after authorities said 50 people had been arrested for looting. Standing in a churned up street as neighbours and volunteers did what they could to clean up in Paiporta, resident Amber Gonzalez, 72, said rebuilding and recovering from the floods would take time. "No matter how much help we get, it is not enough," she said. "This is not going to be fixed in a month or two." As the death toll rose, a temporary morgue was set up at the Feria Valencia convention centre on the outskirts of Valencia city, emergency services said, and the first bodies started to arrive early on Friday. The number of deaths has prompted anger as well as grief in Spain, with some people accusing authorities of being poorly prepared and not having warned people soon enough about the dangers posed by the storm. Valencia resident Hector Bolivar, 65, questioned why a text message alert was only sent out at 8 p.m. when the heavy rain had begun several hours earlier. Mazon has said all protocols for disaster management were followed and that authorities had begun warning people from Sunday. The death toll is the highest from floods in Europe since 1970, when 209 people died in Romania. Scientists say extreme weather events are becoming more frequent in Europe, and elsewhere, due to climate change. Meteorologists think the warming of the Mediterranean, which increases water evaporation, plays a key role in making torrential rains more severe. "Regarding these environmental catastrophes, we pray for the people of the Iberian Peninsula, especially the Valencian Community, swept away by the storm," Pope Francis said on Friday as he led prayers in St. Peter's Square in the Vatican. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/spain-hunts-bodies-opens-temporary-morgue-flood-death-toll-hits-158-2024-11-01/

2024-11-01 11:44

Oil and gas output hits record of nearly 4.6 million boepd Expects full year production of 4.3 million boepd Record Permian output, but below analyst estimates Shareholder returns reach 20% with expanded dividend HOUSTON, Nov. 1 (Reuters) - Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) , opens new tab on Friday edged past Wall Street's third quarter profit estimate, boosted by strong oil output in its first full quarter that includes volumes from U.S. shale producer Pioneer Natural Resources. Oil industry earnings have been squeezed this year by slowing demand and weak margins on gasoline and diesel. But Exxon's year-over-year profit fell 5%, a much smaller drop than at rivals BP (BP.L) , opens new tab and TotalEnergies (TTEF.PA) , opens new tab, which posted sharply lower quarterly results. The top U.S. oil producer reported income of $8.61 billion, down from $9.07 billion a year ago. Its $1.92 per share profit topped Wall Street's outlook of $1.88 per share, on higher oil and gas production and spending constraints. "We had a number of production records" in the quarter, said finance chief Kathryn Mikells, citing an increase of about 25% year-on-year in oil and gas output to 4.6 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd). Exxon earlier this month flagged operating profit had likely decreased, leading Wall Street analysts to shave their quarterly per share earnings forecast by nearly a dime. RECORD PRODUCTION Exxon's results reflected the first full quarter of production following its acquisition in May of Pioneer Natural Resources. The acquisition has already boosted the company's cash flow, Mikells told analysts on a post-earnings call. The $60 billion deal drove production in Permian basin, the top U.S. shale field, to nearly 1.4 million boepd, helping overcome a 17% decline in average oil prices in the quarter ended Sept. 30. Volume growth from the Pioneer acquisition and its lucrative Guyana consortium added almost $3 billion to earnings in the first nine months of this year, Mikells said on a post-earnings conference call. Compared with the second-quarter, Pioneer output averaged slightly lower, she noted. Despite the record, output from the Permian was still below Barclays' estimate of 1.5 million boepd, and Exxon's earnings from U.S. oil and gas production were also softer than forecast, the bank's analyst Betty Jiang said. No. 2 U.S. oil producer Chevron (CVX.N) , opens new tab, whose plans to acquire Hess Corp have locked the two rivals in a bitter arbitration battle over Guyana, beat Wall Street estimates by a nine-cent margin compared with Exxon's four-cent beat. That helped Chevron shares gain more than 3% on Friday, while Exxon gave up more than 2% of premarket gains to trade about flat by noon ET (1600 GMT). Exxon expects full year output to average about 4.3 million boepd, including eight months of Pioneer's contributions. The company plans to issue a revised production forecast next month. It noted that scheduled well maintenance will lower output by about 30,000 boepd in the fourth quarter. The market is worried about oil supply outrunning demand next year, with exporter group OPEC reviewing plans to add 180,000 barrels per day (bpd) of additional oil supply from December. Oil prices slumped over the summer and remain about 12% below June's average. REFINING SLUMPS, CHEMICALS GROW Exxon disclosed it raised its quarterly dividend by 4% after generating free cash flow of $11.3 billion, well above analysts' estimates. Rivals Saudi Aramco (2223.SE) , opens new tab and Chevron have had to borrow this year to cover shareholder returns after boosting dividends and buybacks to attract investors. Exxon's earnings from producing gasoline and diesel in the quarter were $1.31 billion, down from $2.44 billion year-on-year as weak margins and a nearly month-long outage at its 251,800-bpd Illinois refinery hit segment results. Lower planned maintenance at other plants, along with gains on derivatives, helped offset weak industry-wide refining margins and the impact of the Illinois outage, Exxon said. "Refining margins definitely came down in the quarter. If you look at overall results for the refining business, we feel pretty good," said CFO Mikells. Per unit refining margins since 2019 have about doubled on a constant margin basis, she said. Profits from Exxon's chemical business, which has been pressured by industry overcapacity for two years, rose in the quarter to $893 million, compared with $249 million a year ago, on a slight increase in margins. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exxons-86-billion-profit-beats-volume-offsets-price-weakness-2024-11-01/

2024-11-01 11:25

Nov 1 (Reuters) - Enbridge (ENB.TO) , opens new tab posted a more than twofold jump in its third-quarter profit on Friday, as it benefited from incremental contributions from U.S. gas acquisitions, but narrowly missed estimates on higher financing costs related to the deals. The Canadian pipeline operator had closed a $14 billion acquisition, including debt, of three Dominion Energy (D.N) , opens new tab utilities — East Ohio Gas, Questar Gas and Public Service Co of North Carolina — by the third quarter. The deal, which made Enbridge the largest gas utility by volume in North America, had sparked investor concerns over its debt load on already-leveraged balance sheet. Enbridge's adjusted core profit from gas distribution and storage was up 92.6% at C$522 million in the quarter, helped by the acquisitions, which contributed C$217 million. Steady oil demand also boosted the company's earnings, with its Mainline system transporting 2.96 million barrels per day in the quarter. Adjusted core profit of the pipeline network rose 3.2% to C$1.35 billion, helped by higher tolls. "In liquids, demand for the Mainline remains strong and our volumes for 2024 are expected to exceed 3 million barrels per day," said CEO Greg Ebel. Mainline is North America's largest crude oil pipeline network. It transports light and heavy crude oil, natural gas liquids and refined products from Edmonton, Alberta to various markets in Canada and the U.S. Midwest. The company reported a profit of C$1.29 billion ($925.99 million) for the quarter ended Sept. 30, compared with C$532 million a year earlier. Its adjusted profit of 55 Canadian cents per share, however, missed analysts' estimate by one Canadian cent, according to data compiled by LSEG. ($1 = 1.3931 Canadian dollars) Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/enbridge-misses-third-quarter-profit-estimates-2024-11-01/

2024-11-01 11:11

ATHENS, Nov 1 (Reuters) - Dozens of Greek seasonal firefighters protested in central Athens on Friday to demand permanent jobs - hours after others broke into the climate ministry - after their short-term contracts expired as a dire wildfire season comes to an end. Wildfires are common in Greece but have become more frequent and for longer periods during the year in recent years amid extreme heat that scientists link to a warming climate that gravely impacts the Mediterranean Sea where the country lies. With the weather still warm and meteorologists forecasting little rain in the coming days, the fire brigade on Thursday extended its fire-watch season in many regions by two weeks to Nov. 15. Citing fast-changing climate conditions, some 2,500 seasonal staff whose six-month contracts expire when the fire season typically ends in October said they should be allowed to work throughout the year. "As you can see today, it's like summer. Yesterday, we had a major fire. Every day we have fires, so seasonal firefighters should be able to help year-round," said Panagiotis Andriopoulos, a deputy head of Greece's association of seasonal firefighters. One group of protesting contract firefighters broke into the Civil Protection and Climate Crisis Ministry late on Thursday and clashed with riot police. The conservative government of Kyriakos Mitsotakis will soon launch a process to rehire seasonal staff for the new fire season next year, with the total workforce seen reaching 18,000, Civil Protection Minister Vassilis Kikilias told a radio station on Friday. Kikilias said he will discuss "extensively" with contract firefighters their concerns in a meeting scheduled for next week. Some 9,000 forest fires, including one on the outskirts of Athens that killed a woman in August, consumed nearly 109,000 acres of land this summer - Greece's hottest on record - after a winter with little or no rain. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/greek-seasonal-firefighters-protest-athens-demand-permanent-jobs-2024-11-01/