2024-11-01 07:14

Share of gold coins, bars in sales higher this year - Indian trader China January-September gold consumption slides 11.18% People focusing on protecting their assets - Japanese trader Nov 1 (Reuters) - Gold demand in India jumped this week amid festival purchases, although volumes were lower than usual due to record-high prices. "Retail buying jumped as consumers want to make purchases during the auspicious period. But many were making token-buys because of higher prices," said a Hyderabad-based jeweller. In India, prices jumped to a record high of 79,775 rupees per 10 grams earlier this week, marking a nearly 33% increase since last year's Diwali. The share of coins and bars in total sales increased this year than usual as buyers were unwilling to pay increased making charges for jewellery, said a New Delhi-based jeweller. Indian dealers earlier this week charged a premium of up to $1 an ounce over official domestic prices on Dhanteras, inclusive of 6% import and 3% sales levies, but offered a discount later in the week of up to $5, compared with last week's $4 discount. "In volumes, sales were lower this year than last year. However, considering the price rally, even sales with modest volume drops look promising since, in value terms, they are much higher," said a Mumbai-based bullion dealer with a private bank. Diwali and Dhanteras, celebrated this week, are festivals when buying gold is considered auspicious. "It was a good sales week due to festivities after a long quiet period," said Brian Lan, managing director at GoldSilver Central. In Singapore, gold was sold between $0.80 discount to $2.20 premium . Demand for physical silver and platinum is rising in Singapore based on dealers' inventory, Hugo Pascal, precious metals trader at InProved, said. Dealers in China offered discounts of $11-$14 . China's gold consumption in the first three quarters of 2024 slid 11.18% as high prices dented jewellery demand. The ongoing challenges within the Chinese economy continue to impact consumer behaviour despite stimulus package, Pascal added. In Japan, traders quoted at $0.25 discount to $0.5 premium. There were some purchases and limited selling as people focused on protecting their assets, a Tokyo-based trader said. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/asia-gold-festivities-trigger-buying-spree-india-volumes-lag-2024-11-01/

2024-11-01 06:52

President concedes defeat based on early results Opposition leader Duma Boko on track to win BDP party has been in power since 1966 Youth fed up with high unemployment, hardship GABORONE, Nov 1 (Reuters) - Botswana's President Mokgweetsi Masisi conceded defeat on Friday after a shock election result that saw his Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) lose by a landslide after 58 years in power. The president-elect is 54-year-old lawyer Duma Boko, leader of the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) coalition which passed the 31-seat threshold needed to secure a majority in parliament, according to results released on state television. "From tomorrow... I will start the process of handover, and you can count on me to always be there to provide whatever guidance you might want," Masisi said in an audio clip of his phone call to Boko, which he posted on X. "We will retreat to being a loyal opposition and work with you for the betterment of our country," he said. Boko has not yet spoken since the results. Analysts said that mounting socio-economic grievances, particularly among young people, were the downfall of the BDP, which has governed the small southern African state since independence from Britain in 1966. Botswana has largely depended on its diamonds for income, but a downturn in the global diamond market caused economic growth to plummet this year, while unemployment rose to 28%. "After 58 years in power (the BDP) didn't have anything new to offer," said analyst Ringisai Chikohomero of the Pretoria-based Institute for Security Studies. "It was very clear that the president was really relying on incumbency." The UDC, by contrast, put forward ambitious policy proposals, he said. It pledged to more than double the minimum wage, improve social services and create a more independent judiciary, among other measures. State television showed that based on results from 55 of the 61 constituencies up for grabs, the UDC had won 32 seats in parliament. The BDP was in last place out of four parties, with only four seats. Members of parliament elect the president. 'WARNING' TO LONG-RULING PARTIES Botswana is the world's top producer by value of diamonds, and the government owns a 15% stake in diamond giant De Beers, a unit of Anglo American (AAL.L) , opens new tab. Masisi last year negotiated a new deal with the company that will see Botswana get a bigger share of its raw diamonds. Boko has not given any indication that he would want to change the deal. The capital Gaborone was calm on Friday morning, with small groups of opposition supporters celebrating in the streets. "I did not ever think I would witness this change in my life," said 23-year-old student Mpho Mogorosi. "The BDP had stayed too long in power and I am proud to be part of the people that removed them for a better Botswana." The BDP was the second long-ruling party in southern Africa to suffer a defeat at the polls this year, after South Africa's African National Congress also lost its parliamentary majority following 30 years in power and was forced to form a coalition government. Neighbouring Namibia will hold elections later this month in which the ruling SWAPO party, which has governed since 1990, is also expected to face a stiff challenge. "The outcome of Botswana's elections should serve as a warning to long-time ruling parties across southern Africa and beyond that without economic progress and employment opportunities, political dominance will falter," said Zaynab Hoosen, an Africa analyst at consultancy Pangea-Risk. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/botswanas-ruling-party-loses-its-majority-this-weeks-election-mmegi-newspaper-2024-11-01/

2024-11-01 06:20

Typhoon Kong-rey causes two deaths and 515 injuries in Taiwan President Lai Ching-te warns of ongoing localised heavy rainfall Flight disruptions continue, but high-speed rail resumes normal operations TAIPEI, Nov 1 (Reuters) - Taiwan cleared up and offices and financial markets re-opened on Friday after the powerful Typhoon Kong-rey swept through the island causing two deaths and snarling transport, as the remnant of the storm brushed the Chinese coast. Kong-rey slammed into Taiwan's mountainous and sparsely populated east coast on Thursday afternoon, the largest storm by size to hit the island in nearly 30 years. It then worked its way across central Taiwan before entering the Taiwan Strait and moving north. The fire department put the death toll at two - one person whose truck was hit by a falling tree in central Taiwan, and another in Taipei who was hit by an electricity pole. It also reported 515 injuries. More than 1.2 meters (3.9 feet) of rainfall was recorded in the eastern mountains during the typhoon and gusts above 130 kph (80 mph) swept the Taipei metropolitan area Thursday night into Friday, knocking down more than 2,000 trees and hundreds of street signs. Taiwan President Lai Ching-te warned people to watch out for the whip in the tail of the storm, including in the Taiwan-run Matsu islands off China's coast. "We still have to remind everyone that the typhoon's periphery will still affect all parts of the country, especially people in Matsu and mountainous areas around the country, and they should pay attention to localised heavy rainfall," he wrote on his Facebook page. Workers in Taipei gradually removed fallen trees which snarled traffic, delaying the arrival of some ministers for a parliament session. In the Taroko National Park in Hualien county, rescuers flew to safety in a helicopter two Czech hikers who had been trapped by the typhoon. Flight disruptions continued on Friday, with 58 international flights cancelled along with 139 domestic ones, though the north-south high speed rail link resumed normal operations. Heavy rain is forecast for the rest of Friday in parts of central and southern Taiwan. Even after losing power as it traversed Taiwan, Kong-rey remained a severe tropical storm as it entered the Taiwan Strait, bringing strong winds and heavy rainfall to the coastal Chinese province of Fujian. Kong-rey will likely not make landfall in China but is expected to quickly swing back into the open sea later on Friday towards Japan. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/taiwan-clears-up-remnant-typhoon-kong-rey-brushes-chinese-coast-2024-11-01/

2024-11-01 06:13

Gold hit record high of $2,790.15 on Thursday US nonfarm payrolls data due at 1230 GMT LONDON, Nov 1 (Reuters) - Gold and silver prices rose on Friday, recovering from profit-taking during the previous session, while investors braced for U.S. payrolls data for further clues about the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook. Spot gold added 0.3% to $2,753.09 per ounce by 1125 GMT. Prices fell by 1.5% on Thursday as some traders took profit after the precious metal hit a record high of $2,790.15. "Despite Thursday's correction, gold remains in a strong uptrend with several positive factors aligned to drive further gains," said Hugo Pascal, precious metals trader at InProved. Bullion rose by 4% in October due to investor anxiety about the U.S. Nov. 5 presidential election. Polls indicate a close race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. The market is also awaiting the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, due at 1230 GMT, for clues about the health of the world's largest economy. The Fed is widely expected to deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut next week. Citi said in a note that gold prices were on track to hit $3,000 per ounce over the next six months amid a deterioration in the U.S. labour market and demand from physically backed gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Global gold ETFs, which had three consecutive years of outflows against a backdrop of high interest rates, saw a fifth consecutive month of inflows in September. Meanwhile, high gold prices, which have risen 33% so far this year and are heading for the largest annual growth since 1979, continue to affect physical demand in major Asian regions. In China, gold consumption fell by 11% in the first nine months of 2024. In India, the share of coins and bars in sales is rising as buyers are unwilling to pay increased making charges for jewellery. Among other metals, spot silver was up 0.5% at $32.82 per ounce, while platinum gained 0.6% to $993.55 and palladium added 1.4% to $1,121.52. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/gold-little-changed-ahead-us-payrolls-data-2024-11-01/

2024-11-01 06:11

U.S. stocks end higher Nonfarm payrolls increased by 12,000 jobs last month Nvidia will be added to Dow Jones Industrial Average NEW YORK, Nov 1 (Reuters) - Global stock indexes climbed on Friday with Amazon.com shares rallying following the company's stronger-than-expected results, while 10-year Treasury yields hit a four-month high as investors grew wary of buying bonds before the U.S. presidential election on Tuesday. Treasury yields initially tumbled after U.S. jobs data for October showed the U.S. economy barely added any jobs in October, though the numbers were heavily disrupted by industrial action and hurricanes. The U.S. unemployment rate, however, held steady at 4.1%, offering assurance that the labor market remained on a solid footing. After U.S. stock market closed, S&P Dow Jones Indices said Nvidia (NVDA.O) , opens new tab will be added to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, replacing Intel (INTC.O) , opens new tab. Nvidia's shares were up 1.9% in after-hours trading while Intel's were down 1.4%. Polls show Republican Donald Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris in almost a dead heat with four days to go before U.S. Election Day. Some strategists say the U.S. fiscal trajectory is expected to worsen under a presidency by either Trump or Harris. Benchmark 10-year yields were last up 7.7 basis points at 4.361%, the highest since July 5. It follows a 48 basis point increase in October, which was the largest monthly basis point increase since April. On Wall Street, Amazon.com shares jumped 6.2% after its report late on Thursday. It also indicated that it expected healthy results in the holiday quarter. The share gain helped offset a 1.2% decline in shares of Apple (AAPL.O) , opens new tab following the iPhone maker's modest growth outlook. "We've made it most of the way through the Big Tech names, and (results) were probably not as bad as people feared and, in some cases, were pretty good. So investors decided that the little bit of a sell-off we had the last couple of days was unwarranted," said Rick Meckler, partner at Cherry Lane Investments, a family investment office in New Vernon, New Jersey. The Dow (.DJI) , opens new tab rose 288.73 points, or 0.69%, to end at 42,052.19, the S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab rose 23.35 points, or 0.41%, to 5,728.80. The Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) , opens new tab rose 144.77 points, or 0.80%, to 18,239.92. For the week, the S&P 500 was down 1.4%. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) , opens new tab rose 2.85 points, or 0.34%, to 835.15. Europe's main stock index notched its biggest one-day gain in five weeks, as banks led an overall market rebound after recent declines. The STOXX 600 (.STOXX) , opens new tab index ended 1.09% higher. The dollar rose against the euro and rebounded against most major currencies after traders digested the U.S. jobs data. The euro was down 0.40% against the dollar at $1.084. The dollar index (.DXY) , opens new tab, which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, was up 0.36% at 104.24. The dollar was up 0.60% against the yen to 152.94, ahead of a three-day weekend in Japan. Earlier in the week, the yen got a boost from less-dovish comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda following the central bank's decision to stand pat. Bitcoin , the world's largest cryptocurrency by market cap, was up 0.57% on the day at $69,531. Oil extended its recent rally on reports that Iran was preparing a retaliatory strike on Israel from Iraqi territory in the coming days. Iran and Israel have engaged in a series of strikes within the broader Middle East warfare set off by fighting in Gaza. Previous Iranian air attacks on Israel on Oct. 1 and in April were mostly repelled, with only minor damage. Brent futures gained 29 cents to settle at $73.10 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 23 cents to settle at $69.49. Gold prices edged down, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/global-markets-wrapup-1-2024-11-01/

2024-11-01 06:02

LONDON, Nov 1 (Reuters) - Britain's pivotal tax, borrow and invest budget has elevated the Bank of England's interest rate horizon but sterling has hesitated and reversed - suggesting some think the BOE may well take a more nuanced view over the coming year. BOE officials are currently in their traditional blackout period ahead of next Thursday's interest rate decision, so the central bank has had no immediate reaction to this week's budget. But markets have already tweaked their forecasts after reading the runes of the UK fiscal plans and revised forecasts from the independent Office for Budget Responsibility, which show higher growth and inflation next year. Not only are markets now pricing in at least one fewer UK rate cut next year than they had been, but they've even injected some doubt about whether there will be any easing next week. Up until Wednesday, money markets appeared confident that the BOE would announce their second 25 basis point cut of the year next week, reducing the policy rate to 4.75%. The chances of this happening have since fallen to just 80%. And Goldman Sachs has broken with the pack and is now forecasting that the Bank will stay on hold at Thursday's meeting. Moreover, implied market rates for the end of 2025 have risen to more than 4%. That's now half a point higher than the Fed equivalent in a year's time even though the two are little more than 10bps apart right now. Five-year gilt yields are also higher than those of U.S. Treasuries - despite sharp pre-election increases stateside. And five-year gilts are some two percentage points above the German benchmarks . The 18bps rise in two-year yields on Thursday was the largest one-day move since February. Though this may reasonably show markets bracing for heavy new UK borrowing ahead, the market rush to revamp the BOE rate outlook looks less obvious. While it's hard to read too much into global bond market moves mere days ahead of a potentially seismic U.S. presidential election, the pound's dour reaction to this week's big shifts in UK fiscal policy is notable. Sterling , barely moved on budget day and has actually started to weaken against both the dollar and euro since then. This reflects either the re-emergence of a UK risk premium or contains doubts about whether the BOE will actually follow through on the markets' more hawkish rate projections. RISK OR RETHINK The arguments for a more hawkish BOE centre on the injection of new stimulus into the economy and higher inflation forecasts. The latter are fuelled by parallel hikes to the UK minimum wage and the risk that employers bearing the brunt of the new tax rises may try to recoup lost earnings with price rises. With the BOE still wary of brisk wage and services price growth even as headline inflation has returned to target, many now feel that governor Andrew Bailey's recent suggestion for more "activist" monetary easing may need to be put on ice. But there's good reason for the BOE to stick to its course. The new OBR inflation forecast of 2.6% for next year is only one or two tenths higher than the BOE's standing forecast from its August Monetary Policy Report, which will be updated next week. And the Bank may also be taking a longer-term view of the potential impact of the budget measures, which could prevent them from over-reacting. In its review of the budget, the independent think tank National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said the payroll tax increase on employers will hit job creation over time and likely cause the unemployment rate to rise. "We expect significant negative impacts on employment and wage growth, especially in low-paid sectors such as hospitality," it said of the combined tax and minimum wage rises. While the OBR forecasts that the UK will enjoy a real GDP growth bump to 2.0% next year, it expects this to fade thereafter, returning to 1.8% in 2026 and back to 1.5% in subsequent years. In such an environment, the government might struggle to fund higher borrowing unless there are deep interest rate cuts. And even if the government's borrow-to-invest plan is successful and lifts UK potential growth from the meagre 1.5% now assumed, that should also increase the capacity for the economy to advance longer-term without causing a significant rise in inflation. Giant global bond investor PIMCO said it continues to favour gilts even after the budget announcement, as it expects macro drivers such as softening inflation to quickly take over from fiscal concerns. "There are no reasons for us to question the fiscal credibility in the UK," said PIMCO economist Peder Beck-Friis. A hawkish twist by the BOE may, therefore, not be as obvious as many assume - unless of course the pound does indeed take serious fright and complicates the whole picture even further. The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/hawkish-boe-budget-twist-may-not-be-slam-dunk-mike-dolan-2024-11-01/