2024-10-29 06:19

JAKARTA, Oct 29 (Reuters) - Indonesia is looking into options for importing 1 million tons of rice from India next year, coordinating minister for food affairs Zulkifli Hasan said on Tuesday. Indonesia's rice output is estimated to fall 2.43% this year to 30.34 million metric tons, due to a delay in planting and harvest season amid longer dry weather in 2023, the statistics bureau said earlier this month. Indonesia's rice imports have jumped in the past two tears, reaching over 3 million metric tons each year. The Southeast Asian country aims to import up to 3.6 million tons of rice this year. It also plans to open between 750,000 hectares and 1 million hectares (2.47 million acres) of new rice fields in 2025 to achieve President Prabowo Subianto's target of food self-reliance. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/indonesia-considers-importing-1-mln-tons-rice-india-next-year-minister-says-2024-10-29/

2024-10-29 06:16

Dollar holds firm, data and election in focus Sterling steady ahead of UK budget China's yuan shrugs off new stimulus measures NEW YORK, Oct 29 (Reuters) - The dollar hit three-month highs against the yen on Tuesday, but was little changed on the day against most major currencies as traders bided their time ahead of next week's U.S. election and a slew of incoming economic data. The loss of a parliamentary majority for Japan's ruling coalition in weekend elections muddied the political and monetary picture, and has been weighing on the yen. The dollar was last up 0.12% on the day at 153.47 yen . The BOJ announces its monetary policy decision on Thursday, and is widely expected to leave rates unchanged. This week's data slate includes the September U.S. core personal consumption expenditures price index - the Fed's preferred measure of inflation - on Thursday, as well as a flurry of jobs reports. Still, the dollar is heading for its largest monthly rise against a basket of major currencies in 2-1/2 years and holding near three-month highs ahead of data that could determine the path for Federal Reserve policy. U.S. Labor Department's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, showed job openings fell to a more than 3-1/2 years low in September and data for the prior month was revised down, a sign of a continually cooling labour market. Meanwhile, U.S. consumer confidence increased to a nine-month high in October as perceptions of the labour market improved. "We're still seeing the same pattern of a slowdown in jobs that has been the overall theme for the last few months, even if September's (nonfarm payroll) number was well above expectations," said Helen Given, associate director of trading at Monex USA. She said, however, she thought any downside for the dollar remained limited, given the inherent risk of the Nov. 5 election and Fed meetings the week after next. Recent data have highlighted the resilience of the U.S. economy, which, together with mounting market bets of a win by Republican candidate Donald Trump over his Democratic rival Kamala Harris in the election, have underpinned the dollar and pushed up Treasury yields. The dollar index has risen 3.6% so far in October, marking its best monthly performance since April 2022. It was last seen at 104.34 and is up this year against every major currency except the pound . "We're hostage to the elections," said Marvin Loh, senior global market strategist, at State Street in Boston. "We're still expecting a fairly tight race just as everybody has been saying for quite some time." COUNTDOWN TO BUDGET Sterling edged up 0.26% to 1.3006 ahead of the Labour government's first budget. Finance minister Rachel Reeves, along with Prime Minister Keir Starmer, has reiterated the need for tough fiscal measures to help close a hole in British public finances. They are seeking to retain the confidence of investors, two years after then-Prime Minister Liz Truss' tax-cutting plans sparked a crisis in the bond market. Key for sterling will be estimates from the British Office for Budget Responsibility, which makes the forecasts that underpin the government's spending and tax plans. The euro was little changed at $1.0815 against the dollar and was down 0.27% against sterling at 83.13 pence . Meanwhile, the Chinese yuan, which touched its weakest level against the dollar since mid-August, showed little reaction to the possibility Beijing may issue over $1.4 trillion in new debt as part of a series of measures to shore up the economy. The yuan was last at 7.15 in the offshore market. Two sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters China's top legislative body, the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, is looking to approve a new fiscal package. The package, including 6 trillion yuan which would partly be raised via special sovereign bonds, is expected to be approved on the last day of a meeting to be held from Nov. 4-8. Dan Tobon, head of G10 FX strategy at Citi in New York, said there's a risk of choppy trading until next week as markets await U.S. election results. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/yen-mired-political-uncertainty-dollar-looks-key-data-releases-2024-10-29/

2024-10-29 06:09

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin Buckland Earnings are very much front and centre on Tuesday, particularly with markets mostly treading water as a huge week of event risk gets underway. Five of the megacap tech stocks dubbed the "Magnificent 7" - responsible for powering Wall Street to record peaks this year - report financial results over the next three days, starting later today with Google parent Alphabet. Meta and Microsoft follow on Wednesday, with Amazon and Apple a day later. Tesla set the tone last week with bold sales forecasts that sent the stock surging 22% for its biggest rally in a decade. Analysts, however, are wary of Elon Musk's tendency to overpromise. AI poster child Nvidia, which has been vying with Apple for the mantle of most valuable company in recent days, doesn't report results until much later in November. On that theme though, chipmaker results over coming days will give a feel for how brightly the AI frenzy continues to burn. AMD reports today, and Intel follows on Thursday. In Europe, banks hold the spotlight, with HSBC announcing an additional $3 billion share buyback earlier today, along with an estimate-topping 10% profit boost. The lender made headlines last week with a sweeping restructuring and a streamlined executive committee. Santander also reports Tuesday, except for its UK arm, which postponed results while it assesses the impact of a court ruling on motor finance commissions. UBS is on Wednesday. While the bank sector is healthier than at any point since the global financial crisis, investors want reassurance they can trust longer-term earnings with the European Central Bank leading its major global peers in cutting rates. By contrast, the Federal Reserve can take its time easing policy after a raft of robust economic data, particularly in employment. The jobs market has become the Fed's focus, so it's hardly surprising that the dollar and Treasury yields would pause for breath near three-month peaks ahead of today's JOLTS job openings data, a measure favoured by the central bank. Friday brings the all-important monthly payrolls figures, setting the stage for the policy decision on Nov. 7. No hints will be coming from Fed officials who are already in the blackout period. The U.S. presidential election on Nov. 5 looms as the most momentous risk event for markets globally this year. Opinion polls are too close to call, but the momentum in markets and on some betting platforms is increasingly for a Republican sweep. The race has created a lot of uncertainty for businesses, as reflected in one factory survey. "Our own election outcome cannot be known soon enough," reads one anecdote from the Dallas Fed's manufacturing report, out overnight. "We have prospective deals of significance on hold pending who takes office." Key developments that could influence markets on Tuesday: -HSBC, Santander earnings in Europe -Alphabet, AMD earnings in US -US JOLTS (Sep), consumer confidence (Oct) Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/global-markets-view-europe-2024-10-29/

2024-10-29 06:04

LITTLETON, Colorado, Oct 29 (Reuters) - An enduring drought across much of the western United States has caused a drop in U.S. hydro power generation to a 23-year low so far in 2024, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows. The fall in hydro generation has been somewhat overshadowed by the climb in output from renewable sources, which have helped lift total U.S. clean power production to new highs this year. However, reduced generation from hydro dams has limited the volume of clean power that can be dispatched on command, and has meant that power suppliers have had to deploy record volumes of natural gas balance system demand requirements. Hydro dams, nuclear plants and geothermal sites are the main sources of so-called clean dispatchable power, or power that can be rapidly throttled up and down to balance system needs. Natural gas and coal-fired plants are also dispatchable power sources, and are used by grid operators whenever clean power sources are not sufficient to meet system requirements. The drop in power supplies from hydro dams has come just as U.S. power demand has climbed from higher energy use by data centres, businesses and homes, and has left utilities needing to boost fossil-fired output to keep up with consumption. The vital role that dispatchable power sources play in U.S. grid systems means that further drops in hydro output could trigger greater use of fossil fuels by power suppliers, even as they roll out record volumes of renewable energy supplies. OUT WEST Total U.S. hydro production over the first eight months of 2024 was 171,046 thousand megawatt hours (MWh) of power, EIA data shows. That total was 3% down from the same months in 2023 and the lowest for that period since 2001. Roughly half of all U.S. hydro power production is concentrated in just three western states: California, Oregon and Washington, according to the EIA. Washington has the largest hydro footprint, and generated 42,143 MWh through August, while California generated just under 24,000 MWh and Oregon produced 17,750 MWh. Collective output was down 3% in line with national output. An enduring multi-year drought across the Western U.S. has been the main driver behind the drop in hydro generation. Changes in the patterns of water use in certain basins have also played a role in depleting reservoirs, with greater water consumption by residences and industry also leading to lower water levels for electric dams. DECLINING SHARE Reduced hydro production has led to a fall in the share of hydro power within the U.S. electricity generation mix. From January through September, hydro power accounted for a record low share of 5.2% of total electricity production, according to energy think tank Ember. That compares to an average share of 6.5% for the same period from 2015 through 2023. Nuclear-powered electricity output has climbed by 1.3% so far this year. But overall electricity consumption has climbed by roughly double that amount, which has meant that nuclear power's share of the electricity generation mix has declined to 17.6%, and the lowest since at least 2015. Rapidly rising output from wind and solar farms have helped to plug some of the overall clean power supply gap left by lower hydro output. Solar power generated 7.1% of U.S. electricity from January through September, while wind farms supplied 10%. But with hydro generation declining and nuclear production gaining only slightly on the year, the total volume of dispatchable clean power has failed to keep up with system demand growth so far this year. That's left grid operators needing to deploy volumes of natural gas to plug system supply shortfalls, even with ongoing efforts to boost clean generation capacity. And if the ongoing drought gets worse across the Western U.S., further drops to clean dispatchable power can be expected and will trigger even greater use of fossil fuels to balance system needs. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-dispatchable-clean-power-output-hit-by-hydro-slump-maguire-2024-10-29/

2024-10-29 05:56

Israel PM eyes Lebanon war talks, Axios reporter says Brent, WTI turn negative after rising more than 1% earlier Weak China demand weighing on oil consumption, prices CEO of Saudi Arabia's Aramco says market balanced U.S. oil stocks fall by 573,000 barrels last week - API HOUSTON, Oct 29 (Reuters) - Oil prices closed slightly lower on Tuesday, adding to a more than 6% drop in the previous session, on a report that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will hold a meeting for a diplomatic solution to the war in Lebanon. Brent crude futures settled down 30 cents, or 0.4%, at $71.12 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude shed 17 cents, or 0.3%, to $67.21 a barrel. The two benchmarks had gained more than $1 a barrel earlier in the session. Both contracts fell on Monday to their lowest levels since Oct. 1 after Israel's retaliatory strike on Iran at the weekend bypassed Tehran's oil infrastructure. Netanyahu will hold a meeting on Tuesday evening with Israeli ministers and the heads of the country's military and intelligence community about talks for a diplomatic solution to the war in Lebanon, Axios reporter Barak Ravid said on X, citing two sources. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said on Monday that Iran will "use all available tools" to respond to Israel's weekend attack. Meanwhile, declining oil demand from China, the world's largest crude oil importer, remains a drag on global oil consumption and prices. Demand will return to normal growth rates after Chinese President Xi Jinping introduces new stimulus measures to the economy, BP (BP.L) , opens new tab CEO Murray Auchincloss told Reuters. The oil market is currently balanced and demand is expected to average 104.5 million barrels per day this year, the CEO of Saudi Arabian oil giant Saudi Aramco (2222.SE) , opens new tab said. "Markets tried to stage a modest recovery but continue to be under pressure from lacklustre demand from China and worries about increasing supply," said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. U.S. crude oil stocks fell by 573,000 barrels in the week ended Oct. 25, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. Gasoline inventories fell by 282,000 barrels and distillate stocks fell by 1.46 million barrels, they said. U.S. government data is expected on Wednesday morning. Crude oil and gasoline stockpiles in the U.S. were expected to have risen last week, while distillate inventories were expected to have fallen, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday. Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Nov. 7, according to all 111 economists in a Reuters poll, with more than a 90% majority predicting another quarter-percentage-point move in December. Lower interest rates cut the cost of borrowing, which can spur economic activity and boost demand for oil. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-prices-edge-up-us-plan-refill-reserve-offers-support-2024-10-29/

2024-10-29 05:43

Gold may touch $2,800 in coming days - analyst U.S. job openings at 1400 GMT Traders see a 95% chance of a 25 bps U.S. rate cut in November Palladium hits 10-month high Oct 29 (Reuters) - Gold prices hovered near all-time high levels on Tuesday, aided by U.S. election uncertainty and expectations of an interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve in November, while focus was also on a series of economic data. Spot gold was up 0.3% to $2,750.87 per ounce as of 1114 GMT, just shy of a record high of $2,758.37 hit last Wednesday. U.S. gold futures gained 0.3% to $2,763.40. "Gold bulls appear to be taking advantage of the recent pause in the U.S. dollar's and yields ascent, while still enjoying the tailwinds from Fed rate cut expectations and U.S. election risks," said Han Tan, chief market analyst at Exinity Group. "Gold should retain its upward bias and may even flirt with $2,800 in the days ahead, as long as U.S. election risks continue weighing on market sentiment while Fed rate cut expectations remain intact." With the Federal Reserve's rate decision due on Nov. 7, investors will be scrutinizing U.S. job openings at 1400 GMT, ADP employment on Wednesday, U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures on Thursday, and payrolls report on Friday to gauge their influence on the U.S. central bank's move. Markets are pricing in about 95% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed in November, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Bullion thrives in a low interest rate environment and is considered a hedge against political and economic uncertainty. Competition between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris remains tight ahead of the Nov. 5 presidential election. From the technical point of view, the Relative Strength Index currently at 69 suggests that the gold price is approaching the "overbought" territory, starting at 70. Spot silver was up 1.3% to $34.13 per ounce and platinum rose 1.8% to $1,051.25. Palladium rose 1.4% to $1,236.00, after hitting a 10-month high on concerns over sanctions on top producer Russia. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/gold-prices-hover-near-record-peak-us-election-jitters-2024-10-29/