2025-11-04 06:35

US ADP employment report due on Wednesday Benchmark U.S. 10-year yields slip from 3-week high Nov 4 (Reuters) - Gold prices trimmed session's losses on Tuesday, helped by a pause in the dollar's rally and lower Treasury yields, while investors waited for U.S. economic data due this week for more cues on the interest rate path. Spot gold lost 0.2% to $3,993.19 per ounce, as of 1107 GMT, after declining 0.9% earlier. U.S. gold futures for December delivery eased 0.3% to $4,003.40 per ounce. Sign up here. "Gold is consolidating in the region of $4,000 and the next few weeks will be crucial for understanding if there's space for more rally or we see a correction," said Carlo Alberto De Casa, external analyst at banking group Swissquote. "We're seeing a stronger U.S. dollar and expectations for a cut in December going down. Also, yields are going up and this is affecting gold." The dollar index (.DXY) , opens new tab eased after hitting a three-month high against its rivals, making gold less expensive for other currency holders. Benchmark U.S. 10-year yields retreated from a three-week high on Monday. The Federal Reserve last week cut rates for the second time this year, but Chair Jerome Powell said another reduction this year was "not a foregone conclusion". Market participants now see a 65% chance of another rate cut in December, down from over 90% prior to Powell's remarks, per CME's FedWatch Tool. Non-yielding gold thrives in a low-interest-rate environment and during times of economic uncertainty. Investors now eagerly await the release of ADP U.S. employment data, due on Wednesday, and ISM PMIs this week for cues on rate cuts. "The initial break below that level ($4,000) triggered a wave of technical selling and unwinding of long positions," Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and FOREX.com, said in a note. Elsewhere, spot silver was down 0.6% at $47.78 per ounce, platinum eased 0.6% to $1,556.50 and palladium fell 2.5% to $1,408.86. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-holds-under-4000-dollar-resilience-fed-rate-cut-outlook-2025-11-04/

2025-11-04 06:26

Reuters Open Interest (ROI) is your essential source for global financial commentary. LAUNCESTON, Australia, Nov 4 (Reuters) - Asia's imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) fell in October from the same month a year earlier, as top buyer China extended a run of weakness that has stretched for a year. In contrast to the soft demand in the world's top-importing region, demand for the super-chilled fuel has been robust in Europe as the continent builds inventories ahead of the northern winter. Sign up here. Asia's LNG imports were estimated at 22.84 million metric tons in October, up slightly from 22.47 million in September but down from the 24.39 million from October last year, according to data compiled by commodity analysts Kpler. October arrivals were still down from September on a per day basis at 737,000 tons from 749,000. China, the world's biggest LNG buyer, saw imports of 5.57 million tons in October, up a touch from 5.32 million in September, but down from 6.47 million in October 2024. China's LNG imports have declined from the same month a year earlier since November 2024, according to Kpler data. For the first 10 months of the year, Asia's LNG imports were 225.8 million tons, down 14.02 million from 239.82 million in the corresponding period a year earlier, according to Kpler. But Europe's appetite has more than compensated for Asia's weakness, with imports for the January to October rising 16.75 million tons to 101.38 million, according to Kpler. The strength in Europe's demand has meant that spot prices have remained at relatively elevated levels in Asia, which in turn has trimmed demand in price-sensitive buyers. Spot LNG for delivery to North Asia was assessed at $11.10 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) in the week ended October 31, down slightly from $11.20 the prior week. The spot price has held above $10 per mmBtu since April 2024, and the low point so far in 2025 of $10.60 in early October is still well above the 2024 low of $8.30 and $9.00 from June 2023. A spot price of above $10 per mmBtu renders LNG uncompetitive against domestic natural gas and pipeline imports from Russia and central Asia in China. China's spot purchases of LNG have fallen in 2025, with most imported cargoes being priced on long-term contracts that are cheaper than current spot prices. INDIA SLIPS India, Asia's fourth-largest LNG importer, is also viewed as a price-sensitive buyer, and its October imports also showed a decline in year-on-year terms. India imported 2.15 million tons in October, down from 2.37 million a year earlier, and while it was slightly up on the 2.12 million tons in September, it was lower on a per day basis. The higher spot prices in Asia largely reflect the rising appetite for LNG in Europe, which is able to pay more in order to draw cargoes away from Asia. Europe's imports in October were assessed by Kpler at a seven-month high of 10.63 million tons, up from 8.66 million in September and 7.53 million in October last year. Europe is turning to LNG to compensate for the loss of the bulk of pipeline supplies from Russia in the aftermath of Moscow's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. While the United States supplied more than half of Europe's LNG in October, it's worth noting that the continent is still buying from Russia, with 1.0 million tons arriving in the month, the highest since June. Europe is likely to keep buying high volumes of LNG as winter approaches, with Kpler estimating that November will see arrivals of 10.9 million tons, which would be the most since March. Asia is also likely to ramp up imports in the coming months, especially in Japan and South Korea, the next biggest buyers after China. November LNG imports are on track to reach 25.01 million tons in Asia, according to Kpler, and if this forecast proves accurate it will be the first year-on-year increase since August. The seasonal demand for LNG is likely to keep spot prices well supported over the winter period, as the expected surge in supply won't hit the market until later in 2026 and 2027. Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), your essential new source for global financial commentary. ROI delivers thought-provoking, data-driven analysis of everything from swap rates to soybeans. Markets are moving faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X , opens new tab. The views expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/asia-lng-imports-slip-weak-china-europe-gain-compensates-2025-11-04/

2025-11-04 06:19

Takaichi says hopes BOJ guides policy to stably hit price goal Govt will 'strategically' deploy spending to prop up economy Remarks may affect BOJ's decision on how soon to raise rates Governor Ueda scheduled to speak in Nagoya on December 1 BOJ's next policy meeting on December 18-19 TOKYO, Nov 4 (Reuters) - Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said on Tuesday the country has yet to achieve sustainable inflation accompanied by wage gains, signaling her preference for the central bank to go slow in raising interest rates. While consumer inflation continues to hover around 3% due to rising food costs, Japan is still "half way" in achieving sustainable and stable price growth backed by solid wage gains, Takaichi told parliament. Sign up here. "I hope the Bank of Japan conducts appropriate monetary policy towards sustainably and stably achieving its 2% inflation target," said Takaichi, who has advocated expansionary fiscal and monetary policy. She was questioned by Yoshihiko Noda, head of the largest opposition party and a former prime minister, who said preventing the BOJ from raising interest rates could push up import costs and inflation more broadly by weakening the yen. Takaichi also said her administration will "strategically" deploy fiscal spending to increase household incomes, improve consumer sentiment and strengthen the economy. She voiced caution about lowering Japan's consumption tax rate - an idea proposed by some opposition parties, saying there were several challenges such as time needed by retailers to adjust their equipment to a new rate. Takaichi's remarks on monetary policy may affect the BOJ's decision on whether to resume rate hikes as soon as its next meeting on December 18-19, as some market players predict. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda is scheduled to deliver a speech and hold a news conference in Nagoya, central Japan, on December 1, where he could drop hints on the likelihood of a near-term hike. The BOJ ended a massive, decade-long stimulus last year and raised interest rates to 0.5% in January on the view Japan was on the cusp of sustainably achieving its 2% inflation target. It has kept rates steady since then, including at last week's policy meeting, to ensure Japan makes further progress in durably hitting its price goal backed by solid wage gains. Critics blame the slow pace of BOJ rate hikes as having helped weaken the yen and push up import costs, thereby keeping inflation above its 2% target for well over three years. In a news conference after last week's policy meeting, Ueda said the likelihood of the BOJ's baseline projection materialising has "heightened somewhat," sending the strongest signal yet that a rate hike was possible as soon as December. But the yen slumped as Ueda's comments were not as strong as some market participants had expected. That led to Japan's finance minister warning against excessive declines in the currency. Japan's core consumer prices rose 2.9% year-on-year in September. While nominal wages have risen due to a tight job market, stubbornly high costs of living have weighed on consumption. Analysts also expect higher U.S. tariffs to start hurting exports with some projecting Japan's economy to suffer a deep contraction in the third quarter. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/sustainable-finance-reporting/japan-yet-achieve-durable-wage-driven-inflation-pm-takaichi-says-2025-11-04/

2025-11-04 06:07

LITTLETON, Colorado, Nov 4 (Reuters) - Breakthroughs in drilling methods and heat extraction techniques are widening the appeal of geothermal power systems across the world, and geothermal generation capacity is on track to double once projects currently in development are completed. Currently, only around 2% of global energy generation comes from geothermal projects, according to Energy Institute data, which places the technology squarely in the niche category of the global energy mix. Sign up here. However, around 35 countries or territories are constructing or have plans to build new geothermal capacity, according to Global Energy Monitor (GEM), creating the potential to make geothermal generation a more mainstream affair. Of that total, 18 of those locations are already familiar with the technology and are within tectonically-active regions with high-temperature rock deposits relatively close to the earth's surface. However, a nearly equal number of locations will be developing geothermal projects for the first time, which is a testament to the growing appeal of geothermal to power suppliers and the growing suitability of the technology to more locations. Below is a roundup of the key geothermal hotspots around the world and the main markets to track for rapid expansions to geothermal generation capacity in the years ahead. GEOTHERMAL GIANTS Just 10 countries account for 94% of global geothermal capacity currently in operation. In descending order of capacity, those countries are: the United States, Indonesia, the Philippines, Turkey, New Zealand, Mexico, Italy, Kenya, Iceland and Japan, GEM data shows. Just over 16,000 megawatts (MW) of geothermal capacity is operating globally, according to GEM, with around 15,200 MW of that located within the top 10 geothermal producers. All the top 10 countries are within tectonically-active zones that allow geothermal developers to tap high-heat zones just below the earth's surface, and draw that heat up to create steam that drives turbines and generates power. Because of that existing geothermal expertise, around 75% of the roughly 15,350 MW of new planned geothermal projects are slated to be within those top 10 geothermal producing countries. The U.S. leads the way with close to 4,300 megawatts (MW) of new geothermal capacity that is either already under construction or is in advanced planning stages. Indonesia, Kenya and the Philippines have the next largest geothermal development pipelines, followed by Turkey and New Zealand. DIGGING DEEPER AND WIDER While most of the new geothermal projects are in countries already familiar with the technology and in locations with tectonic seams that allow developers to tap adjacent sub-surface heat zones, there are new frontiers in play. Thanks in part to advancements that build on U.S. fracking techniques - which pioneered horizontal drilling and high-pressure fracturing of rock formations - geothermal projects can now be deployed outside of tectonically-active areas. Fracking techniques allow developers to create new underground reservoirs in hot rock formations that can store water or can be adapted to closed-loop pipe systems that can drive steam turbines above ground. The ability to accurately drill far deeper than ever before also means that seams of high-temperature rock formations are now accessible in nearly all countries, and not just near natural hot springs. These innovative approaches are leading to geothermal projects being developed outside the core areas in new markets such as Slovakia, the United Kingdom, Laos and Dominica, GEM data shows. The deep drilling capabilities are also helping to boost the economics of geothermal projects, as the deeper reservoirs can heat water and steam to far higher temperatures than shallow projects, and lead to sharply higher energy output per well. Deeper reservoirs are also often larger than formations nearer the surface, and so can keep larger volumes of water heated for longer than smaller wells located nearer the surface. Mazama Energy, which is developing a geothermal project in Oregon, last month reported a well base temperature of 629 degrees Fahrenheit (331 degrees Celsius), which it claims is the hottest geothermal resource ever recorded. The hot zone was tapped at around 10,000 feet (nearly 3 km) and is assumed to be replicable in other regions given the consistency of temperatures at that depth. Drilling so far into the earth can be highly expensive and requires top-tier geologists and engineers on hand. But such techniques have the merit of requiring far fewer drill holes than conventional geothermal systems, as super-hot wells can often produce multiple times the amount of energy than wells sourced from cooler rock formations. As more pilot projects refine approaches and share results with the wider community, additional cost declines and efficiency gains are expected. In turn, even more geothermal projects are expected to turn up in developer pipelines, potentially setting the stage for a years-long boom in geothermal project growth that could lift the technology from niche and localized to far more mainstream. The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters. Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), your essential new source for global financial commentary. ROI delivers thought-provoking, data-driven analysis of everything from swap rates to soybeans. Markets are moving faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X , opens new tab. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/going-underground-tour-global-geothermal-projects-progress-2025-11-04/

2025-11-04 06:04

EU ministers meet to try to pass new climate target Bloc's credibility at risk ahead of COP30 climate talks Countries struggling to reconcile green agenda and industry Deal will require compromise on foreign carbon credits BRUSSELS, Nov 4 (Reuters) - EU climate ministers will make a last-ditch attempt to pass a new climate change target on Tuesday, in an effort to avoid going to the U.N. COP30 summit in Brazil empty-handed. Failure to agree could undermine the European Union's claims to leadership at the COP30 talks, which will test the will of major economies to keep fighting climate change despite opposition from U.S. President Donald Trump. Sign up here. Countries including China, Britain and Australia have already submitted new climate targets ahead of COP30. But the EU, which has some of the world's most ambitious CO2-cutting policies, has struggled to contain a backlash from industries and governments sceptical that it can afford the measures alongside defence and industrial priorities. EU members failed to agree a 2040 climate target in September, leaving them scrambling for a deal days before European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen meets other world leaders at COP30 in Belem, Brazil, on November 6. "The geopolitical landscape has rarely been more complex," EU climate policy chief Wopke Hoekstra told a gathering of climate ministers in Canada on Saturday, adding that he was confident the bloc would approve its new goal. "The European Union will continue to do its utmost, even under these circumstances, in Belem to uphold its commitment to multilateralism and to the Paris Agreement," he said. A MORE FLEXIBLE EU TARGET The starting point for talks is a European Commission proposal to cut net EU greenhouse gas emissions by 90% from 1990 levels by 2040, to keep countries on track for net-zero by 2050. Italy, Poland and the Czech Republic are among those warning this is too restrictive for domestic industries struggling with high energy costs, cheaper Chinese imports and U.S. tariffs. Others, including the Netherlands, Spain and Sweden, cite worsening extreme weather and the need to catch up with China in manufacturing green technologies as reasons for ambitious goals. The draft compromise ministers will discuss, seen by Reuters, includes a clause demanded by France allowing a weakening of the 2040 goal in future, if it becomes clear EU forests are not absorbing enough CO2 to meet it. Brussels has also vowed to change other measures to attempt to win buy-in for the climate goal. These include controlling prices in an upcoming carbon market and considering weakening its 2035 combustion engine ban as requested by Germany. A deal on Tuesday will require ministers to agree on the share of the 90% emissions cut countries can cover by buying foreign carbon credits - effectively softening efforts required by domestic industries. France has said credits should cover 5%, more than the 3% share originally proposed by the Commission. Other governments argue money would be better spent on supporting European industries than buying foreign CO2 credits. Support from at least 15 of the 27 EU members is needed to pass the goal. EU diplomats said on Monday the vote would be tight and could depend on one or two flipping positions. Ministers will try first to agree the 2040 goal, and from that derive an emissions pledge for 2035 - which is what the U.N. asked countries to submit ahead of COP30. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/cop/eu-last-minute-talks-set-new-climate-goal-cop30-2025-11-04/

2025-11-04 06:04

LONDON, Nov 4 (Reuters) - Could Beijing's solution to overcapacity in China's aluminium sector be a template for other metals? Yes, according to China's state-backed non-ferrous metals industry association (CNMIA), which is recommending aluminium-style capacity caps for the country's copper, lead and zinc smelters. Sign up here. Chinese processing capacity in all three metals has grown far faster than mine capacity, creating a raw materials crunch that is biting into smelter margins. Multiple Western smelters have reduced operating rates or fully curtailed plants and it's clear that Chinese operators are now also feeling the pain caused by their collective investment exuberance. "INVOLUTION" IN ACTION "Intense 'involution-style' competition has undercut companies' negotiation power in raw materials procurement, squeezing profits and threatening a sustainable industry development," according to Duan Shaofu, a CNMIA official quoted in state media. In Beijing "involution" translates as excessive, self-destructive competition in sectors where too much capacity is chasing too little feed. Which is as accurate a description of the copper raw materials sector as you'll find. China's massive expansion in smelter capacity has lifted the country's refined output by 12% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025, according to local data provider Shanghai Metal Market (SMM). But the flip side has been ferocious competition for feedstock. Spot treatment and refining charges, which would normally represent a core revenue stream for smelters, have been negative for many months. Benchmark terms, covering larger volumes over longer periods, have collapsed to zero. Chinese smelters agreed with Chilean miner Antofagasta (ANTO.L) , opens new tab to process its concentrates for free in mid-year negotiations. Zinc treatment charges turned negative at the end of 2024 but have since recovered to around $87 per metric ton, still low by historical standards. Lead treatment charges are totally bombed out at a record low of minus $115 per ton for imported raw material, according to SMM. The common theme is one of Chinese smelters chasing the market ever lower as they battle for survival in an ever more challenging raw materials squeeze. LOW UTILISATION Capacity utilisation in China's primary aluminium smelting sector is currently over 96%, according to SMM, as production runs just below the mandated 45 million ton annual cap. Despite much industry scepticism, the cap appears to be a hard one, give or take some collective amperage flex. The Shanghai aluminium price has risen by 8% since the start of the year, while the alumina price has slumped by 48%. In times gone by the wide price margin between output and core input would have seen Chinese smelters aggressively lift production. This year, though, annualised production has edged up by only a marginal 370,000 tons with national output growth slowing from 4.2% last year to 2.2% in the first nine months of this year, according to the International Aluminium Institute. Capacity utilisation in China's copper smelter sector, by contrast, was 84% in September, according to SMM. Moreover, that headline figure masks a very divergent performance within the sector. SMM estimates that large copper smelters operated at 88% of capacity, medium-sized smelters at 79% and smaller operators at just 60%. Operating rates at China's secondary lead smelters, a big part of the battery metal's supply dynamic, fell as low as 22.3% in September, according to SMM. FUTURE MARKER CNMIA's public call for capacity caps is an official acknowledgement of the problems created by China's excessive build-out of new smelter capacity. It also places sectors such as copper, zinc and lead in the crosshairs of Beijing's broader "anti-involution" campaign. But the key question is how long it will take to translate into official policy and where any caps will be set. In the case of aluminium, the cap was announced in 2017 and is only now starting to act as a tangible brake on the sector's previously fast growth rate. Beijing probably doesn't have that much time to play with when it comes to sectors such as copper, where smelters are facing potentially negative terms in next year's benchmark deals, when they tend to lock in most of their raw material volumes. That said, any cap is likely to be set in a way that discourages further investment in new capacity rather than forces the closure of existing capacity. That offers little immediate relief to smelters outside of China which are feeling the full impact of the country's smelting "involution". Andy Home is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own. Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI) for thought-provoking, data-driven commentary on markets and finance. Follow ROI on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X , opens new tab. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-eyes-capacity-caps-copper-lead-zinc-smelters-2025-11-04/