2024-10-09 11:39

LONDON, Oct 9 (Reuters) - The British pound nudged down to a one-month low on the dollar on Wednesday, as markets gradually reassess the different interest rate paths of the Federal Reserve and Bank of England. Sterling touched $1.3570, its lowest since Sept. 12 and was last at $1.3094, down a whisker on the day. It was marginally stronger on the euro at 83.77 pence, well within its recent ranges. , But the near-term future for the pound against the dollar and euro is more dependent on what's happening in the United States and the euro zone than on domestic events. "There are no important UK economic data nor Bank of England officials scheduled to speak today. As a result, GBP/USD can be driven by the USD trend and changes in risk sentiment," said Kristina Clifton, an economist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. The dollar was at a one-month high against a basket of its peers. Sterling has been under pressure on the dollar since Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey said last week the central bank could become 'more aggressive' on rate cuts if inflation pressures continue to weaken. That contrasts with the Federal Reserve, where markets have been reassessing the substantial further rate cuts they had seen by year end following last week's much stronger than expected jobs data. Markets are now pricing an albeit small chance the Fed won't cut rates at all at its November meeting, a contrast to before the jobs data when a 25 basis point move was fully priced in and there was a one in three probability of a larger 50-bp move. Market expectations that the Fed would cut much more than the Bank of England this year had been supporting the pound for much of this year. But it is now down over 2% so far in October. The end of the month is still a way away, but if the weakness is sustained that would be its biggest monthly drop in over a year. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/sterling-one-month-low-dollar-traders-assess-uk-us-rate-paths-2024-10-09/

2024-10-09 11:27

NEW DELHI, Oct 9 (Reuters) - India needs to impose tariffs on steel imports for an even playing field for the domestic industry, Steel Authority of India's (SAIL.NS) , opens new tab Chairman Amarendu Prakash told Reuters on the sidelines of the FT Live Energy Transition Summit India on Wednesday. India's finished steel imports from China hit a seven-year high during the first five months of fiscal 2025, according to provisional government data last month. On Tuesday, ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel India's CEO Dilip Oommen said India should double the customs duty on steel to keep imports in check as the country faces dumping of steel and predatory pricing. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/indias-sails-chairman-says-need-tariff-measures-imports-2024-10-09/

2024-10-09 11:11

Storm makes landfall near Siesta Key, south of Tampa Bay At least 19 tornadoes confirmed, destroying homes in multiple counties Multiple tornado deaths reported in town on eastern coast of Florida Flash flood emergency in effect for Tampa Bay area State prepared to engage in search and rescue missions overnight ST. PETERSBURG, Florida, Oct 10 (Reuters) - Hurricane Milton marched across central Florida on Thursday after making landfall on the state's west coast hours earlier, whipping up deadly tornadoes, destroying homes and knocking out power to nearly 2 million customers. The storm made landfall around 8:30 p.m. EDT (0030 GMT) on Wednesday as a Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 120 miles per hour (195 kph) near Siesta Key, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said. By early Thursday, wind speeds reduced to a still dangerous 90 mph (150 kph), dropping Milton to a Category 1 hurricane, with heavy rains and damaging storm surges. The hurricane was located about 45 miles (75 km) west-southwest of Cape Canaveral, home to NASA's Space Force Station. A flash flood emergency was in effect for the Tampa Bay area including the cities of Tampa, St. Petersburg and Clearwater, the hurricane center said, with St. Petersburg already receiving 16.6 inches (422 mm) of rain on Wednesday. The eye of the storm made landfall in Siesta Key, a barrier island town of some 5,400 off Sarasota about 60 miles (100 km) south of the Tampa Bay metropolitan area, which is home to more than 3 million people. Governor Ron DeSantis said he hoped Tampa Bay, once seen as the potential bull's eye, could dodge major damage and that the worst of the predicted storm surge could be avoided thanks to the landfall coming before the high tide. Forecasters said seawater could still rise as high as 13 feet (4 meters). DeSantis reported Milton had also spawned at least 19 tornadoes caused damage in numerous counties, destroying around 125 homes, most of them mobile homes. "At this point, it's too dangerous to evacuate safely, so you have to shelter in place and just hunker down," DeSantis said upon announcing the landfall. At least two deaths were reported at a retirement community following a suspected tornado in Fort Pierce on the eastern coast of Florida, NBC News reported, citing St. Lucie County Sheriff Keith Pearson. His department did not immediately respond to a request for details. Pearson estimated 100 homes were destroyed in the county where some 17 tornadoes touched down, NBC said. More than 2 million homes and businesses in Florida were without power, according to PowerOutage.us. The storm was expected to cross the Florida peninsula overnight and emerge into the Atlantic, still with hurricane force, on Thursday. Milton is forecast to maintain hurricane intensity while crossing Florida later on Thursday morning but after moving into the Atlantic it is likely to gradually lose tropical characteristics and slowly weaken, the Hurricane Center added. In a state already battered by Hurricane Helene two weeks ago, as many as two million people were ordered to evacuate, and millions more live in the projected path of the storm. Much of the southern U.S. experienced the deadly force of Hurricane Helene as it cut a swath of devastation through Florida and several other states. Both storms are expected to cause billions of dollars in damage. U.S. President Joe Biden was briefed by emergency authorities on the initial impacts of the hurricane, according to a White House statement. ZOO ANIMALS PROTECTED While human evacuees jammed the highways and created gasoline shortages, animals including African elephants, Caribbean flamingos and pygmy hippos were riding out the storm at Tampa's zoo. Nearly a quarter of Florida's gasoline stations were out of fuel on Wednesday afternoon. The Federal Emergency Management Agency had moved millions of liters (gallons) of water, millions of meals and other supplies and personnel into the area. None of the additional aid will detract from recovery efforts for Hurricane Helene, the agency's administrator, Deanne Criswell, said earlier on Wednesday. Trucks have been running 24 hours a day to clear mounds of debris left behind by Helene before Milton potentially turned them into dangerous projectiles, DeSantis said. About 9,000 National Guard personnel were deployed in Florida, ready to assist recovery efforts, as were 50,000 electricity grid workers in anticipating of widespread power outages, DeSantis said. Search-and-rescue teams were prepared to head out as soon as the storm passes, working through the night if needed, DeSantis said. "It's going to mean pretty much all the rescues are going to be done in the dark, in the middle of the night, but that's fine. They're going to do that," DeSantis said. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/hurricane-milton-weakens-it-marches-across-central-florida-homes-destroyed-2024-10-10/

2024-10-09 10:59

TSX ends up 0.6% at 24,224.90 Eclipses Friday's record closing high Technology climbs 1.7% All ten major sectors notch gains Oct 9 (Reuters) - Canada's main stock index rose to a record high on Wednesday, led by gains for technology and consumer discretionary stocks, as investors grew optimistic that U.S. inflation data could support additional interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index (.GSPTSE) , opens new tab ended up 152.39, or 0.6%, at 24,224.90, moving past the record closing high it posted on Friday. U.S. consumer price index data, due on Thursday, is expected to show inflation cooling to 2.3% in September. "I think people are sort of cautiously optimistic that the inflation number may come in at a benign level, continuing on the trend of (policy) easing," said Brian Madden, chief investment officer at First Avenue Investment Counsel. Minutes from the Fed's September meeting showed a "substantial majority" of officials supported an outsized half-percentage-point interest rate cut. The Toronto market's technology sector climbed 1.7%, helped by a gain of 4.7% for the shares of electronic equipment company Celestica Inc (CLS.TO) , opens new tab after TD Cowen raised its target price on the stock. Consumer discretionary added 1% and industrials ended 0.9% higher. All ten major sectors notched gains. Among the biggest gainers was Bird Construction Inc (BDT.TO) , opens new tab, which jumped 11.9% after the company announced a dividend increase and released financial targets. In contrast, shares of Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD.TO) , opens new tab fell 0.8% after the convenience store operator made a revised bid for Japan's Seven & i Holdings (3382.T) , opens new tab. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/tsx-futures-edge-down-ahead-fed-minutes-2024-10-09/

2024-10-09 10:21

NEW YORK, Oct 9 (Reuters) - It may not quite be the famous question of Shakespeare’s Hamlet, but it is something very much on the minds of U.S. homeowners these days: To refi or not to refi? Judging from the latest numbers, there is a lot of pent-up demand for Americans looking to refinance their home mortgages. In fact, refi applications recently jumped 20% in a week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, and accounted for 56% of all mortgage applications. Average rates on 30-year mortgages approached 8% last November. They stood at 6.4% on Tuesday, according to Bankrate. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has signaled that more Fed cuts are on the way, now that inflation is back down to manageable levels, which should trickle through the financial system. For homeowners, that potentially means big savings. Yet refinancing can be an intense process – in terms of time, documentation and fees. You can expect that costs will be in the region of 3-6% of the loan principal, according to lender Freddie Mac. And keep in mind that if you secured your mortgage years ago, your existing rate is likely below where rates are right now. So how much of a rate differential makes a refi truly worth the hassle? “The general rule of thumb is a 1-2% rate reduction for refinancing to be worthwhile,” says Matt Vernon, head of consumer lending for Bank of America. The interest rate is just one element of the refi decision. Here are a few factors to help you make that call and close the deal. DO NOT TRY TO TIME IT PERFECTLY Trying to time mortgage rates is like trying to time the stock market: You are never going to get it exactly right. So when you are offered an attractive rate that makes financial sense for your situation, do not overthink it. If rates continue to fall, you can always consider refinancing for a second time later on. “For homeowners who are trying to time things perfectly, there is no point in waiting another year for rates to drop by (another quarter of a percentage point) when they are moving so much on individual days,” says Daryl Fairweather, chief economist for real estate brokerage Redfin. “Rates will continue to come down – but it’s going to be a bumpy ride.” FOCUS ON THE TERM, NOT JUST THE RATE A lower mortgage rate is one factor in the refi equation. But if you are stretching out what you owe, you could actually be adding to your total bill. “Refinancing a 30-year mortgage for a home bought five years ago with a new 30-year mortgage today overstates the monthly savings,” warns David Flores Wilson, a financial planner in New York City. “The new mortgage will have five additional years of payments.” Instead, think about taking advantage of lower rates to tighten up the term – say to 15 years, instead of 30. For your retirement years, owning a home free-and-clear 15 years ahead of schedule can be a game changer. Says Jorie Johnson, a financial planner in Brielle, New Jersey: “We are seeing a lot of interest in refinancing to a shorter term at a slightly lower interest rate, and saving a lot of total interest paid over the term of the loan.” CONSIDER THE PURPOSE There are other reasons why a refinance might make sense for you. For instance, you may have built up significant equity in the property amid the robust real estate market over the past few years. National home prices are hitting all-time highs, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index. That would allow you to do what is called a "cash-out refi," tapping some of that value to pay for a project like a much-needed renovation. And if your credit score is up considerably since you originally took out the mortgage, that will lower the mortgage rates you will see from lenders. SHOP AROUND To truly maximize the moment of declining rates, do not just interact with your current loan servicer. “These days there are so many tools online, where you can see multiple quotes at the same time,” says Fairweather. (Among them: LendingTree, NerdWallet, Bankrate, WalletHub and GoBankingRates.) “My best advice is for people to look beyond their own bank, and wherever they happen to have their checking account," Fairweather notes. “That is likely not where you are going to get the best rate.” Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/should-you-refinance-your-mortgage-now-rates-drop-2024-10-09/

2024-10-09 10:15

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan Wall St stocks roared back on Tuesday just as China doubts re-emerge - but a scattergun week now has investors navigating the impact from a potentially devastating hurricane in Florida and a recoiling oil price in the face of Middle East tensions. Adding to this heavy and sometimes conflicting newsflow, the U.S. Justice Department late Tuesday said it may ask a judge to force Alphabet's (GOOGL.O) , opens new tab Google to divest parts of its business, such as its Chrome browser and Android operating system - claiming they sustain an illegal monopoly in online search. Despite the breakup call, Alphabet's stock was steady in Frankfurt on Wednesday - but the antitrust move may be serve as a shot across the bow to Big Tech megacaps that once again led Tuesday's broader rally. Stock index futures were marginally in the red ahead of today's open. The moves paled in comparison to the wild swings in China's markets (.CSI300) , opens new tab, (.HSI) , opens new tab, where growing doubts about the success of last month's slightly frantic economic stimulus measures saw the biggest one-day losses in mainland indexes there since the pandemic in 2020. Stocks in Shanghai (.SSEC) , opens new tab and the blue-chip CSI300 (.CSI300) , opens new tab closed down 6.6% and 7.1% respectively on Wednesday - snapping a 10-day winning streak. Hong Kong (.HSI) , opens new tab added another 2% fall to its near 10% slide on Tuesday. Clearly jarred by the sudden about face on markets, China's finance ministry said it will detail plans on a fiscal stimulus to boost the economy at a news conference on Saturday. But the market fizz has certainly disappeared after the original announcements. Despite U.S. hurricane fears and trepidation about what happens next between Israel and Iran, murmurs of ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon and fresh the Chinese demand doubts saw oil prices fall back sharply on Tuesday - as crude clocked its biggest one-day drop of the year. That's helped defuse anxiety about another energy price hit to the global disinflation process, with rates traders now focussed on Thursday's release of the September U.S. consumer price report. U.S. crude steadied on Wednesday just under $74 per barrel after a 4.5% slump in the previous session. Annual oil price moves continue to clock losses of about 14% year-on-year. Goldman Sachs analysts reckon the oil market risk premia they look at had dissipated considerably, with options markets pricing in a roughly 5% probability of a $20/bbl price jump. Goldman reckons that sort of price jump roughly corresponds to a 2 million barrels per day 6-month interruption without an OPEC offset, occurring within the next month. With $39 billion of 10-year Treasury notes under the hammer later, 10-year yields fell back slightly today but continued to cling to a new-found 4% handle. The dollar (.DXY) , opens new tab remained pumped up and nudged higher to build on last week's surge. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday releases minutes of its September policy meeting - where it began cutting interest rates with an outsize half point cut. But much of the thinking since then has changed due last week's robust employment report. The short-term economic effects of Category 5 Hurricane Milton - which is due to make landfall on Wednesday and has already displaced more than million people from coastal areas - are harder to assess. Disruptions to economic data over the next month from this and the most recent hurricane Helene are likely at least. Airlines, energy firms and a Universal Studios theme park were among the companies beginning to halt their Florida operations as they braced for the huge storm. Whatever the hit, the strength of the economy more broadly looks able to absorb it. After the latest jobs and trade numbers, the Atlanta Fed's real-time 'GDPNow' estimate was again revised up sharply to 3.2% for the current quarter. With less than a month to go before the U.S. election, fiscal jitters are also starting to re-emerge in bond markets. The Congressional Budget Office estimated on Tuesday a U.S. federal deficit of $1.834 trillion for fiscal 2024, the highest in the post-COVID era, as debt interest costs jumped sharply and outlays rose for Social Security, Medicare and health insurance tax credits. Neither candidate in the election has plans to rein that deficit in and Republican Donald Trump's plans are expected to see twice the deterioration to the budget than that of Democrat Kamala Harris. Elsewhere, the once-hawkish New Zealand central bank announced its second interest rate cut of the year - a hefty half point reduction with promise of more to come. The kiwi dollar fell after the decision. Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Wednesday: * Mexico September inflation * Federal Reserve releases minutes of Sept policymaking meeting * Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, Dallas Fed boss Lorie Logan, Boston Fed chief Susan Collins, Richmond Fed chief Thomas Barkin, Chicago Fed chief Austan Goolsbee and Atlanta Fed chief Raphael Bostic all speak * US corporate earnings: CostCo * US Treasury auctions $39 billion of 10-year notes Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/global-markets-view-usa-pix-2024-10-09/