2024-10-08 22:09

Oct 8 (Reuters) - The Tampa, Florida, metropolitan area, home to around 3.1 million people, is in the direct path of a major hurricane, Milton, for the first time in over a century and vulnerable to flooding. - Timeline of landfall across Tampa Bay area The storm is expected to reach the west coast of Florida late Wednesday or early Thursday as a hurricane. - Safety warnings and evacuation orders Hurricane Milton is expected to damage frame homes and destroy mobile homes as it topples large trees and causes power and communication outages. Some areas of central Florida will get up to 18 inches of rain with a "high risk of life-threatening flash and urban flooding" in metro areas of Tampa, Orlando and Daytona Beach, according to the National Hurricane Center. Evacuation orders have been given in low-lying areas and other vulnerable communities in six counties around Tampa Bay that are home to nearly 4 million people. Not all residents face mandatory evacuation. - Tampa size and growth The city of Tampa's population of 400,000 has grown nearly sevenfold in the century since it was last hit by a major hurricane. The surrounding metropolitan area, comprising four counties and cities such as St Petersburg, is one of the fastest-growing parts of the United States. - Others storms that have hit Tampa The last major hurricane to hit the Tampa Bay area was in 1921 when the city had a population of around 52,000. Eight people died as winds up to 120 mph and a storm surge as high as 11 feet destroyed coastal structures, according to the National Weather Service. The unnamed hurricane was a category 3. - Geography of Tampa Bay Tampa Bay, like the rest of Florida's Gulf of Mexico coastline, is vulnerable to storm surge as its shallow, gently sloping ocean floor retains water pushed toward land by wind, forcing the sea onto land. Barrier islands near Clearwater and St. Petersburg are at particular risk, with officials urging residents to cross bridges to the mainland to avoid drowning. -Climate change impact Record or near-record water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico create more intense and frequent hurricanes that pack higher rainfall and greater storm surge risk due to rising sea levels, according to climate scientists. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/tampa-path-hurricane-first-time-century-2024-10-08/

2024-10-08 21:49

Oct 8 (Reuters) - Airlines, energy firms and a Universal Studios theme park were among the companies beginning to halt their Florida operations as they braced for disruptions with Hurricane Milton set to make landfall on Wednesday. The hurricane has rapidly intensified into one of the area's most powerful on record, threatening a stretch of Florida's densely populated west coast that is still reeling from the devastating Hurricane Helene less than two weeks ago. As of Tuesday afternoon, 1,311 flights within, into, or out of the United States were delayed, and 701 were canceled, with that number expected to rise, according to flight tracking data provider FlightAware. Southwest, one of the largest U.S. airlines, said it was adjusting its schedule at several airports that were pausing operations, including Tampa International Airport and Orlando International Airport. Orlando International, one of the busiest airports in the U.S., said it would cease operations at 8 a.m. local time on Wednesday, according to a notice on its website. Tampa International said it was closed on Tuesday. United Airlines (UAL.O) , opens new tab, JetBlue Airways (JBLU.O) , opens new tab and Air Canada (AC.TO) , opens new tab added extra capacity to move people out of Florida. Hurricane Milton is expected to expand in size on Tuesday as it approaches Florida's battered Gulf Coast, where more than 1 million people were ordered to evacuate. President Joe Biden has postponed his Oct. 10-15 trip to Germany and Angola to oversee storm preparation and response, the White House said on Tuesday. A growing number of gasoline retailers were flashing empty signs on Tuesday as residents took to panic buying. Motorists waited to fill their tanks in lines snaking around gas stations, only to find that some were out of fuel, according to local media and social-media posts. Retailer Target (TGT.N) , opens new tab said it was temporarily closing or adjusting hours of locations of its stores in the storm's path. Department store Kohls (KSS.N) , opens new tab said it temporarily closed some stores in the area. Energy companies began shutting down their pipelines and fuel-delivery terminals in Tampa on Tuesday. Pipeline operator Kinder Morgan (KMI.N) , opens new tab said it shut down its Central Florida Pipeline system, two small lines that carry gasoline, diesel and other fuels from Tampa to Orlando. Universal Studios in Orlando was also planning to close ahead of Milton's landfall, it said on Tuesday, while cruise operators Royal Caribbean (RCL.N) , opens new tab and Carnival (CCL.N) , opens new tab said they were adjusting some schedules. Milton is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall in Florida, causing catastrophic damage and power outages expected to last days. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/airlines-cancel-flights-airports-close-florida-braces-hurricane-milton-2024-10-08/

2024-10-08 21:49

Oct 8 (Reuters) - This year's warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico helped Milton swiftly become a powerful hurricane, with the U.S. National Hurricane Center calling it the third-fastest intensifying Atlantic storm on record. Milton's rapid power surge appears to be the latest example of a worrying trend, scientists said, with climate change not only fuelling more powerful storms, but doing so more quickly. Here is what you need to know: WHAT IS BEHIND A STORM'S STRENGTH? As storm winds organize into a hurricane, they pull energy from the heat in surface waters. The warmer the water, the more fuel for a hurricane. Thanks to climate change, water temperatures are rising. In the last four decades, the ocean has absorbed about 90% of the warming from greenhouse gas emissions. This year has seen especially warm waters due to climate change, with 2024 on track to have the warmest average global air temperature on record. The past 12 months have seen global warming at 1.62 degrees Celsius (2.92 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels, the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service said on Tuesday. A storm's strength is defined by its sustained wind speeds, with a Category 1 hurricane carrying wind speeds of 74-95 mph (119-153 kph), while a dangerous Category 5 storm has wind speeds of 157 mph (252 kph) or higher. HOW IS STRENGTH DIFFERENT FROM INTENSIFICATION? When a storm powers up quickly, scientists refer to its "rapid intensification." When a storm rapidly intensifies, sustained wind speeds increase by at least 35 mph (56 kph) within 24 hours, which can see a storm jump by two categories. On Monday, Milton became the third-most rapidly intensifying Atlantic storm as its wind speeds increased by more than double the criteria for rapid intensification, shifting from a tropical storm to a Category 5 storm in less than a day. The Gulf's warm water, along with air conditions, made Milton's rapid intensification "a near-certainty," said physical oceanographer Gregory Foltz with the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. A study last year suggested that storms originating in the Atlantic Ocean are now more than twice as likely to strengthen from Category 1 to Category 3 in just 36 hours, based on data from 2001-2020 compared with 1971-1990. That study, published in Scientific Reports, estimated that Atlantic storms overall are 29% more likely to undergo rapid intensification. While the study suggested this effect might be less pronounced for Gulf storms, the lead author told Reuters that unusually warm waters fuel storms wherever conditions are right. Gulf of Mexico surface waters reached record-high temperatures around 90 degrees Fahrenheit (32 degrees Celsius) during the past two summers, according to NOAA data. In mid-September, just weeks ahead of Milton's formation, the Gulf was the warmest for that time of year on record. "Watching Milton's strengthening unfold in real time yesterday was still staggering," said lead author Andra Garner of Rowan University in New Jersey. Her calculations, shared with Reuters, suggest that Milton's maximum 12-hour and 24-hour intensification rates on Monday ranked in the 99th percentile of all maximum intensification rates observed in the Atlantic. WHY IS RAPID INTENSIFICATION A CONCERN? Hurricanes can be deadly. They also cause some of the world's costliest disasters, with the 10 costliest for the United States all occurring since 1989. While Milton's power-up was stunning, it occurred while the storm was still days from making landfall, giving Florida communities a chance to evacuate on Tuesday. When a storm intensifies rapidly close to shore, it can leave communities scrambling to prepare or get out of harm's way. Mexico was surprised last year when a weak tropical storm in the Pacific suddenly became a powerful Category 5 storm called Hurricane Otis, just hours before it slammed into western Mexico and killed dozens of people in the Acapulco metropolitan area. The most rapidly intensifying Atlantic hurricane on record is Wilma, a Category 5 storm when it hit the Yucatan Peninsula in October 2005, followed by Hurricane Felix in 2007. One 2022 study in Geophysical Research Letters said that the intensification rate of near-shore Atlantic hurricanes had "increased significantly" during the 1979–2018 period. But like the 2023 study, it did not find a significant change in intensification speeds in Gulf storms. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/what-made-milton-third-fastest-intensifying-atlantic-storm-2024-10-08/

2024-10-08 21:47

NEW YORK, Oct 8 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets. Wall Street got back on track Tuesday, encouraged that the Fed seems confident enough in the U.S. growth picture to ease up on the easing, but investors have been reticent ahead of the release of minutes from the September FOMC where officials took the most dovish possible policy turn to ensure the US jobs machine keeps humming. By the time New York opened, markets weren't looking too impressed with China's economic jawboning after its return from Golden Week holiday. The yuan took a spill although it had brushed itself off a bit by the time Tuesday trading wrapped up. Beijing said it was "fully confident" of achieving its full-year growth target but refrained from introducing stronger fiscal steps, disappointing investors who had banked on more support from policymakers to get the economy back on track. While China shares initially rallied to two-year highs after the holiday they lost steam after the state planner did not provide details to sustain market optimism. Hong Kong shares slumped as investors also walked back some of the stimulus excitement. London-based hedge fund giant Winton has lost more than 8% on its China strategy, since Sept. 20, wiping out all gains for this year, according to two investors and a performance record. On Wednesday, the record from September's Fed meeting will reveal the discussion about what looked at the time like a deteriorating labor market, until the eye-popping September payrolls report on Friday put those concerns to rest and unchained animal spirits for two of three subsequent U.S. trading sessions. Traders were 88% confident that November's FOMC would bring a 25-basis point cut, hedged by a 12% probability that the Fed would hold rates steady. Fed funds futures still lean toward 50 bps of easing through year end. U.S. markets were also still focused on the growing risk of a Middle East conflagration as Israel continued to step up its military incursion into Lebanon to combat Hezbollah, while continuing its war with Hamas in Gaza. That did not stop the S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab from rebounding 1%, while the Nasdaq (.IXIC) , opens new tab advanced almost 1.5% as the risk-off impulse dissipated. Forex trading in U.S. time zones was subdued, with traders keeping powder dry for the release of September CPI on Thursday, the most important indicator of the week, even as Fed confidence that inflation is nearing their 2% target seems to have turned its policy discussion more squarely on employment. The dollar eked out a 0.05% gain vs. the yen and showed a 0.67% rise against the yuan late Tuesday. The 10-year Treasury yield held above 4% for a second day. Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Wednesday: - Taiwan CPI (Sept) - Reserve Bank of India meeting - Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting - Minutes of Federal Open Market Committee meeting (Sept) Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/global-markets-view-asia-graphic-2024-10-08/

2024-10-08 20:48

GM CEO forecasts 2025 profits similar to 2024 GM reducing inventories in China and improving sales, Barra says Automaker will sunset Ultium branding on batteries Cruise unit expected to lose no more than $2 billion in 2025 DETROIT, Oct 8 (Reuters) - General Motors (GM.N) , opens new tab CEO Mary Barra sought to soothe shareholder worries that lagging demand for electric vehicles and perceived peak demand for gasoline-powered trucks will create a rough road ahead for the automaker. Barra emphasized at an investor day on Tuesday in Spring Hill, Tennessee, that profit margins have not peaked on traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) powered vehicles, and its EV sales are ramping up, something sources previously told Reuters would be outlined. That includes 2025 profits in the same range as 2024, she said. "I believe before the day is done, that you'll agree that GM has plenty of upside relative to the consensus view that the auto industry has reached peak profitability,” Barra told investors. Shareholders were eager for more details on the automaker's restructuring in China, as well as updates around its Cruise autonomous vehicle operations, which have struggled since an accident when one of its self-driving cars dragged a person. Barra said it is reducing inventories in China and improving sales, but didn't give additional details on the restructuring efforts there. Cruise has resumed supervised driving in select cities, she said. Pressed for more details about Cruise, GM Chief Financial Officer Paul Jacobson said the business is expected to lose no more than $2 billion in 2025. The slower-than-anticipated EV transition has caused many automakers to adjust plans, including GM and rival Ford, and GM's messaging on Tuesday focused less on aggressive growth and more on stability. GM President Mark Reuss took a jab at Ford (F.N) , opens new tab, which has established a specialized unit to bring down the cost of its EVs, called its "skunkworks" team. “We don’t need to create a skunkworks to create affordable electric vehicles," Reuss said, highlighting how GM has brought down costs on its EVs through reducing the number of parts per vehicle, among other measures. Last month, GM and Hyundai (005380.KS) , opens new tab signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding to consider ways to "leverage their complementary scale and strengths to reduce costs and bring a wider range of vehicles and technologies to customers faster." While EV demand has lagged since Barra set lofty production and profitability goals three years ago, she said GM still expects EVs by year-end to achieve positive variable profitability, which is revenue minus costs like labor and materials. Jacobson said GM expects softer pricing in 2025, and operating losses on EVs to narrow by $2 billion to $4 billion. GM received about $800 million in manufacturing credits from the Inflation Reduction Act this year and it should grow from there, he added. GM shares closed up slightly at $46.01. “A lot of the presentation was focused on reducing complexity, and that leads to lower cost and greater profits, so that's all favorable," said Tim Piechowski, portfolio manager at ACR Alpine Capital Research, a GM investor. Meanwhile, Reuss said GM isn't missing out by forgoing hybrids in the near-term, unlike Ford and Toyota (7203.T) , opens new tab. Demand for gas-engine vehicles is strong, and emissions requirements don't ramp up until 2027, when GM will introduce plug-in hybrids, he said. One focus at GM's event is its Ultium Cells battery technology, which investors saw during tours of the battery and EV assembly operations at the company's Tennessee plant. The automaker will no longer use the Ultium name on its batteries, Kurt Kelty, head of battery cells, said. Moving forward, GM will be more flexible with battery chemistry and configuration, he said. Moving away from the Ultium name is significant for GM's branding of EVs, especially after the company highlighted it in Super Bowl advertisements. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/gm-seeks-ease-investor-concerns-ev-growth-slows-2024-10-08/

2024-10-08 20:47

BRASILIA, Oct 8 (Reuters) - Brazil's Senate on Tuesday approved President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's nominee to lead the central bank, Gabriel Galipolo, who emphasized to lawmakers that the leftist leader was emphatic and clear in guaranteeing him freedom in decision-making. Regarded as a heterodox economist with direct access to Lula, Galipolo is currently the central bank's director of monetary policy. He has sought to ease market concerns about his potential for leniency on inflation if pressured by the president. Speaking at a Senate committee hearing, where his nomination to lead the bank starting next year was approved unanimously, Galipolo reiterated commitment to pursuing a 3% inflation target and noted that policymakers were concerned about unanchored expectations for consumer prices. "It is up to the central bank to pursue this goal unequivocally by maintaining interest rates at a restrictive level for as long as necessary to achieve it," he said. Later on Tuesday, Galipolo's nomination was approved by the full Senate with a vote of 66 to 5. During the hearing, Galipolo acknowledged that Brazil's annual core inflation is on par with that of more stable countries like the U.S, while noting that Latin America's largest economy is not decelerating, which is why disinflation should be slower and more costly. Galipolo said that while current data such as inflation and labor market figures are important, the central bank's focus is on a longer-term horizon. "There is unanchoring (of inflation) in the relevant horizon that bothers us," he said, referring to a variable that economists view as indicative of a potential acceleration in the pace of interest rate hikes. Galipolo, along with the entire rate-setting board Copom, voted last month to kick off a tightening cycle, raising interest rates by 25 basis points to 10.75%. Before the decision, when his nomination was already public, Lula said of policymakers: "If they need to hike interest rates, then they need to hike interest rates." The remark was viewed as a shift following ongoing calls for lower borrowing costs to support the economy and investment. Brazil's annual inflation in mid-September reached 4.12%, while expectations of private economists surveyed weekly by the central bank are for inflation to hit 4.38% this year, 3.97% next year and 3.60% in 2026, all above the official target. MARKET SKEPTICISM Galipolo's connection to Lula, with whom he was in Mexico last week for President Claudia Sheinbaum's inauguration, has raised skepticism among many market participants since he was first tapped for a central bank position last year. Galipolo previously served as the Finance Ministry's executive secretary under Lula, and has been the bank's monetary policy director since July 2023. Markets initially voiced concern about his perceived lack of technical expertise and views on issues such as the need for state intervention to prioritize social needs and the suggestion that the central bank could act across the entire yield curve. Galipolo has since overcome initial resistance to succeed current Governor Roberto Campos Neto, appointed by former right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro. Neto has faced vocal criticism from Lula since the president took office in January 2023. Jefferson Laatus, chief strategist at the Laatus group, said market worries will not cease immediately. "We will only know for sure about it in January, at the first meeting that will actually take place with him as governor," he said. Asked about financial autonomy of the central bank, a proposal opposed by the Lula administration but supported by Campos Neto, Galipolo said the current discussion marks a "significant advance." Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/lulas-nominee-head-brazil-central-bank-emphasizes-freedom-decision-making-2024-10-08/