2025-12-18 11:47
LONDON, Dec 18 (Reuters) - By Marc Jones, Global Markets Correspondent Investors' top focus today is the delayed - and slightly unusual - U.S. consumer price inflation report, which will be an important marker for whether the Federal Reserve is likely to keep cutting interest rates next year. Meanwhile, Wall Street will be watching the tech sector again after the latest signs of bubble trouble due to big spending AI plans at the likes of Oracle. Sign up here. I’ll get into all the market news below. But first check out Mike Dolan’s latest column on why the Bank of England, which is due to cut UK rates very shortly, probably needs to start picking up the pace. And listen to thelatest episode of the new Morning Bid , opens new tab daily podcast. Subscribe to hear Mike and other Reuters journalists discuss the biggest news in markets and finance seven days a week. Today's Market Minute Optics and Oracles The day's top focus is the delayed U.S. consumer price inflation report for November out at 1330 GMT. It will be an important marker for whether the Fed is likely to keep cutting its interest rates next year, although this is not a normal CPI report by any stretch. As the government was in shutdown mode the October data wasn’t collected, so there won’t be the usual monthly change number that traders normally zoom in on, meaning the focus will instead be on the year-on-year rates, and how those compare to the previous print in September. Economists asked by the Reuters polling team reckon CPI likely increased 3.1% year-on-year in November, which would be the largest gain since May 2024 and up from the 3.0% advance in the 12 months through to September. But the CPI could print below expectations as the delays to the data collection process mean it was being done when holiday season discounting was in full swing, which could be evident in lower prices for things like furniture and recreation goods. The tech darlings will undoubtedly remain in the spotlight, too. Wall Street took a turn for the worse Wednesday after ominous-looking news around a $10 billion funding deal for one of Oracle's big U.S. data centres slammed its shares again and saw the mighty Mag 7 have its worst day in over a month. It's all to do with nagging concerns about the stratospheric amounts of money pouring into artificial intelligence - and whether it has inflated the mother of all bubbles. Before we get to all that though there is plenty of top-tier European action to get through. The Bank of England looks a sure bet to cut UK interest rates. It already was before a soft inflation reading on Wednesday, so the bigger question will be - as Mike Dolan notes - how quickly it follows up. We'll then hop over to Frankfurt where Christine Lagarde's European Central Bank will stay on hold, something it is likely to be doing for a long, long time. And in Brussels it is supposed to be decision day in the EU's long-running drama of how to use frozen Russian central bank reserves to prop up Ukraine. Boomeranging back to the U.S. there's weekly jobless claims data, too. It probably won’t move the dial too much, even if it does coincide with the December nonfarm payrolls survey week, and lastly earnings are due from both Nike and FedEx after the close, both of which are seen as pretty decent bellwethers for the global economy at large. Chart of the day Concerns around a potential AI bubble are simmering. Server-giant Oracle seems to be front and center. Its 5-year credit default swaps, which debt investors use to hedge their exposure to the firm, have surged to their highest level since the global financial crisis, while its shares have halved in price since mid-October's flagship deal with OpenAI pushed them up by over a third.Analysts worry that the company’s capital expenditure is expected to rise nearly 70% to $35 billion - more than half the firm's anticipated revenue. By comparison, Microsoft’s proportion will be around 30%. Today's events to watch (times in GMT) Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles , opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. Want to receive the Morning Bid in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for the newsletter here. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/global-markets-view-usa-2025-12-18/
2025-12-18 11:45
TAIPEI, Dec 18 (Reuters) - A 5.1 magnitude earthquake struck 18 km (11 miles) off eastern Taiwan's Hualien city on Thursday, the island's weather administration said, with no immediate reports of damage. The quake briefly shook buildings in the capital, Taipei. The quake had a depth of 31.6 km (19.6 miles), the weather administration said. Sign up here. Taiwan lies near the junction of two tectonic plates and is prone to earthquakes. More than 100 people were killed in a quake in southern Taiwan in 2016, while a 7.3 magnitude quake killed more than 2,000 people in 1999. https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/earthquake-felt-taiwans-capital-taipei-2025-12-18/
2025-12-18 11:43
BEIJING, Dec 18 (Reuters) - China's export licence requirement for some 300 steel products will allow closer monitoring of steel exports and is aligned to World Trade Organization rules, the country's commerce ministry said on Thursday. The world's largest steel producer and consumer last Friday said it planned to implement a licence system from 2026 to regulate exports of the metal, as its shipments have faced a growing protectionist backlash worldwide. Sign up here. "The steel export licence system complies with the World Trade Organization rules," He Yadong, the spokesman at the commerce ministry told reporters at a regular weekly briefing on Thursday, adding it did not involve restricting export volumes. China's steel exports have ballooned since 2023, following the recovery from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, despite trade barriers being enforced by a growing number of countries on the grounds that the cheap products damage domestic manufacturers. "There is a problem with the current steel exports: volumes increased but value shrank, which has triggered massive trade frictions," Luo Tiejun, vice chairman at the state-backed China Iron and Steel Association, was cited as saying in a statement of the association on Thursday. In the first 11 months of this year, outbound steel shipments jumped by 6.7% year-on-year to a record high for the period at 107.72 million metric tons, while the corresponding dollar value fell by 2.1%, customs data showed. VALID FOR SIX MONTHS WITHIN A CALENDAR YEAR The steel export licence, which requires an online application, will be valid for half a year and can only be used during the year in which it is issued even if the six-month period has not expired, the CISA statement said, citing an official from the commerce ministry. The export licence can be used up to 12 times to clear customs for some specified trades during its period of validity, the statement said. China has previously applied a licence system to its steel exports. In 2007, it mandated export licences for some steel products, but cancelled the requirement in 2009. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinas-steel-export-licences-are-set-curb-trade-frictions-2025-12-18/
2025-12-18 11:41
PRAGUE, Dec 18 (Reuters) - The new Czech government is looking at several options for buying out utility CEZ (CEZP.PR) , opens new tab, including leaving some assets listed, but has not set a deadline for what could be one of the country's biggest energy shake-ups, its industry minister said. Prime Minister Andrej Babis, a billionaire whose populist ANO movement leads a three-party government that took office this week after winning an October election, has pushed for full control of CEZ to boost energy security. Sign up here. Industry Minister Karel Havlicek, an ANO vice-chairman and first deputy prime minister, told Reuters on Wednesday that one option would be to take over 100% of CEZ's generation assets and leave distribution and trading assets on the stock exchange. The state could also acquire all of CEZ - one of central Europe's largest companies with a market capitalisation of $33 billion - and later relist part of the distribution and trading assets, among other options being considered. Havlicek declined to give further details of "price-sensitive" information. The process could take up to two years once approved, he said. "This would de facto mean that the desired step towards energy security has been taken," he said in an interview. "We would have the entire generation under control, as they do in France for example." 'MASSIVE' TRANSACTION Leaving part of CEZ's distribution or trading businesses listed would ease the cost of buying out minority shareholders, who own 30% of the company. The state holds a 70% stake. Buyout costs would exceed 200 billion crowns ($9.6 billion) at the current share price. Havlicek said any transaction must offer fair conditions to minority shareholders. "But I do not want to presume when exactly we will get to it," he said, adding the government was also working on cutting energy prices for customers and building new capacity mechanisms. He called a CEZ buyout a "massive" transaction, but said it would give the state more room to manoeuvre. Critics say the plan is costly, would deprive the state of dividends and saddle CEZ with debt. Havlicek said CEZ generates annual earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation of 130 billion to 140 billion crowns, so it can handle the buyout without jeopardising investments. ($1 = 20.7550 Czech crowns) https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/new-czech-government-looking-several-cez-buyout-options-minister-says-2025-12-18/
2025-12-18 11:34
NEW DELHI, Dec 18 (Reuters) - India's Chennai Petroleum Corp (CPCL) (CHPC.NS) , opens new tab plans to expand its south India-based Manali refinery's capacity to 280,000 barrels per day from 210,000 bpd and enter fuel retailing as part of a growth strategy, a top executive said on Thursday. The company is a subsidiary of the country's top refiner, the state-run Indian Oil Corp (IOC.NS) , opens new tab, and sells almost all of its transportation fuels - diesel and gasoline - to its parent, which has a robust local retail network. Sign up here. Under the new growth initiative, the Chennai-based company will foray into the retail business with 300 fuel stations by mid-2028, said managing director H Shankar. "CPCL 2.0 will be a different version of what industry has seen it as a standalone refinery," he said at an industry event. He said the company hopes to get a feasibility study on the Manali refinery expansion by October 2026, which will help decide cost and configuration of new units. Shankar also said CPCL is in the process of finalising the configuration of its planned 180,000 bpd refinery and linked petrochemicals units at Nagapattinam in southern Tamil Nadu state. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/indias-chennai-petroleum-corp-raise-capacity-key-manali-refinery-exec-says-2025-12-18/
2025-12-18 11:34
BERLIN, Dec 18 (Reuters) - Germany unveiled the "Deutschlandfonds" on Wednesday, a 30 billion euro ($35.22 billion) initiative designed to mobilize private capital for investments in energy transition, technology, and industrial modernization as Europe's largest economy seeks to regain competitiveness. The fund, coordinated by the finance and economy ministries with implementation by state-owned development bank KfW, will use guarantees, loans, and equity stakes to de-risk private investments rather than direct state spending. Sign up here. The government describes the fund as "temporary seed financing" for Germany's economic transformation after years of stagnation. The initiative targets three key sectors: industry and small and medium-sized companies pursuing decarbonisation and critical raw materials projects, energy utilities investing in renewable infrastructure, and start-ups and scale-ups in deep tech, biotech, and defence technology. Specific measures include up to 8 billion euros in guarantees for industrial transformation projects, a 600 million euro guarantee framework for geothermal drilling, and expanded venture capital financing through an enhanced "Zukunftsfonds II" focusing on growth and innovation capital. KfW will also begin financing defence exports and purchase securitizations to strengthen lending to small and medium-sized companies. ($1 = 0.8517 euros) https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/germany-launches-30-billion-fund-mobilize-private-investment-2025-12-18/
