2025-11-03 06:41

Dow ends lower; S&P 500 and Nasdaq up Dollar up slightly; Fed officials give conflicting views on economy Earnings focus on tech firms NEW YORK, Nov 3 (Reuters) - Most major stock indexes climbed on Monday following news that Amazon.com (AMZN.O) , opens new tab will supply cloud-computing services to OpenAI, and the dollar rose to a three-month high versus the euro due to waning expectations for hefty U.S. interest rate cuts. The Federal Reserve last week eased rates as expected, but Chair Jerome Powell said another cut in December was "not a foregone conclusion," contrary to some investors' view that it was essentially a done deal. Sign up here. Fed officials on Monday continued to give conflicting views on where the economy stands and the risks facing it, a debate set to intensify as the ongoing U.S. government shutdown prevents the release of official data. Traders are pricing in a roughly 70% chance of a 25 basis point cut in December, down from about 94% a week ago. The multi-year $38 billion Amazon-OpenAI deal provided support to equities, with Amazon's stock ending 4% higher. "We're still looking at this as a market driven by the technology revolution that is certainly in full swing given AI," said Tim Ghriskey, senior portfolio strategist at Ingalls & Snyder in New York. "I don't see that slowing down at all. The bigger companies have these massive R&D budgets that are just going to keep cranking out new things. We will continue to see that for the foreseeable future." TRUMP'S TARIFFS The U.S. Supreme Court is considering the legality of President Donald Trump's global tariffs, with arguments set for Wednesday. Under one legal authority or another, Trump's tariffs are expected to stay in place long-term. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) , opens new tab fell 226.19 points, or 0.48%, to 47,336.68, the S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab rose 11.77 points, or 0.17%, to 6,851.97 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) , opens new tab climbed 109.77 points, or 0.46%, to 23,834.72. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) , opens new tab rose 1.47 points, or 0.15%, to 1,007.70. The pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) , opens new tab index rose 0.07%. Investors will also get more quarterly results from technology companies this week. After the closing bell, shares of data analytics company Palantir Technologies (PLTR.O) , opens new tab were up about 1% as the company reported results and forecast fourth-quarter revenue above analysts' estimates. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.O) , opens new tab, Qualcomm (QCOM.O) , opens new tab, Uber (UBER.N) , opens new tab and McDonald's (MCD.N) , opens new tab are also due to report this week. U.S. megacap companies delivered a mixed bag of results last week, and investors are looking for a return on the extensive capital spending on AI. DOLLAR GAINS AGAINST MAJOR CURRENCIES The dollar extended its gains from last week against the euro amid doubts about the outlook for another Fed rate cut this year. The euro , which slipped as low as $1.1505 against the dollar, its weakest since August 1, pared losses to trade down 0.1% at $1.152225. That followed Institute for Supply Management data showing U.S. manufacturing contracted for an eighth straight month in October as new orders remained subdued, and suppliers were taking longer to deliver materials to factories against the backdrop of tariffs on imported goods. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, rose 0.08% to 99.89. Against the Japanese yen , the dollar strengthened 0.13% to 154.2. Sterling weakened 0.12% to $1.3135, ahead of a Bank of England rate decision later this week. Cryptocurrency bitcoin was down 2.6% at $107,152. U.S. Treasury yields rose amid high corporate debt issues and as the government bond market kept last week's bearish tone. The Treasury Department released its quarterly borrowing estimate of $569 billion in the fourth quarter, $21 billion less than its July estimate. The benchmark 10-year yield was last at 4.107%, slightly higher than late last week. The two-year yield of 3.6% was almost unchanged from Friday. The closely watched part of the yield curve that plots two-year and 10-year Treasuries steepened to 51 basis points. U.S. crude rose 7 cents to settle at $61.05 a barrel, while Brent crude futures rose 12 cents to $64.89. Investors weighed news that OPEC+ plans to end its supply increases. Spot gold fell 0.03% to $4,000.26 an ounce. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2025-11-03/

2025-11-03 06:25

OPEC+ pauses output increases amid supply glut fears UAE emphasizes need for energy investment and balance Volatility in energy market seen as constant by ADNOC CEO ABU DHABI, Nov 3 (Reuters) - More oil demand is expected going into 2026, the United Arab Emirates' energy minister said on Monday at the ADIPEC energy conference in Abu Dhabi, after OPEC+ decided to pause output increases in the first quarter of next year. When asked about the possibility of an oil glut in 2026, Suhail al-Mazrouei said: "I think all of what we are seeing is more demand." Sign up here. The UAE is one of eight OPEC+ countries that agreed to increase December output targets, though it halted the increases in the first quarter as it moderates plans to regain market share on fears of a supply glut. New Western sanctions on OPEC+ member Russia are adding to the challenges, as Moscow may struggle to further raise output after the U.S. and Britain imposed fresh measures on top producers Rosneft and Lukoil. Mazrouei said OPEC+ is trying to achieve balance, but investments are needed because artificial intelligence and data centres require more energy. "There is a requirement for more energy ... and we need to make sure the environment for investment is allowed to do that," he said. "If we're not achieving a balance between the price and what you would require, we will not have (a sufficient flow of investment) to do it." 'VOLATILITY IS THE NORM' UAE oil firm ADNOC's chief executive said volatility became a constant due to geopolitics and near-term uncertainty was real. But long-term demand remained strong, he said, adding that oil demand would stay above 100 million barrels a day beyond 2040. "While we may face headwinds in the months ahead, the long-term outlook shows demand growth for every form of energy across every market," Sultan Al Jaber said. Al Jaber said that cost discipline needed to be balanced with capital investment. Electricity demand will keep surging through 2040 as the power required by data centres continues to grow, but a shortage of gas turbines is turning a supply crunch into a "choke point" that is sending electricity prices higher, Al Jaber said. More than $4 trillion in capital investment is needed annually to cover grids, data centres and all sources of energy supply, he added. The capital is available but needs to be derisked, Jaber added, saying the right structures need to be in place to ensure the flows are going where they are needed. He added that "dormant capital" tied up in existing energy infrastructure needs to be freed up. XRG, ADNOC's international investment arm, continues to look for opportunities across the gas value chain. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-demand-will-stay-above-100-million-bpd-beyond-2040-uaes-jaber-says-2025-11-03/

2025-11-03 06:20

Dollar rise to 3-month high vs euro US manufacturing contracts further in October Focus on private data releases as shutdown drags on Markets alert to more jawboning from Tokyo Rate decisions from BoE, RBA due this week NEW YORK, Nov 3 (Reuters) - The dollar rose to a three-month high against the euro on Monday, extending its gains from last week on doubts about the outlook for another Fed rate cut this year. The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points last week, as expected, but Chair Jerome Powell signalled that may be the last cut this year, citing the risk of making additional moves without a more robust picture of the economy. Sign up here. Were it not for the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, data releases scheduled for this week, including U.S. nonfarm payrolls, would have helped with that picture. With government releases missing, investors will be left with limited non-government sources of economic data, including ADP employment data, to gauge the health of the U.S. economy. 'QUITE A BIT OF DOUBT' ABOUT DECEMBER RATE CUT "There was quite a bit of doubt cast on the likelihood of a follow-up December rate cut," said Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at Scotiabank. Federal Reserve officials on Monday continued pressing competing views of where the economy stands and the risks facing it, a debate set to intensify ahead of the U.S. central bank's next policy meeting. In an appearance on the Bloomberg Surveillance television program, Fed Governor Stephen Miran restated the case for deep interest rate cuts that he has laid out since joining the central bank's Board of Governors in September. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, in contrast, told Yahoo Finance that he was leery of further rate cuts while inflation remains significantly above the central bank's 2% target and is expected to accelerate through the rest of 2025. "I don't recall, in all the years of watching these markets, public division among Fed policymakers as significant as this on the policy outlook," Osborne said. Traders are now pricing in a roughly 70% chance of a 25 bp cut in December, down from about 94%, a week ago. EURO HITS WEAKEST VS DOLLAR SINCE AUGUST The euro, which slipped as low as $1.1505 against the dollar, its weakest since August 1, pared losses to trade down 0.1% at $1.152225, after data showed U.S. manufacturing contracted for an eighth straight month in October as new orders remained subdued, and suppliers were taking longer to deliver materials to factories against the backdrop of tariffs on imported goods. "The small decline in the ISM Manufacturing Index in October is not a huge concern, as it was entirely driven by the volatile production component, while new orders and employment both inched higher," Thomas Ryan, North America economist at Capital Economics, said in a note. The dollar was up 0.4% to 0.80755 Swiss francs, its highest since mid-August. Against the yen the dollar was 0.1% higher at 154.19 yen, languishing near an 8-1/2-month low, pressured by wide interest rate differentials. Still, there remained risks to the dollar, including the U.S. government shutdown that has disrupted the supply of official data crucial to gauging the strength of the economy. "I don't think it is guaranteed that the dollar continues to strengthen," Osborne said. POUND, YEN FACE THEIR OWN PRESSURES For now, the pound and the yen face their own pressures. Even though Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda last week sent the strongest signal yet that a rate hike was possible as soon as December, markets remained underwhelmed by the central bank's gradual approach, particularly given that the Fed has turned more hawkish. That has piled pressure on the yen, prompting jawboning from Japanese authorities to stem the currency's slide. The yen is approaching levels at which Japanese authorities intervened in markets in 2022 and 2024 to support the currency. Sterling has softened as market expectations of another Bank of England rate cut this year increased after softer-than-expected inflation data released last month. On Monday, the pound was 0.1% lower at $1.3133. The BoE meets this week, with some analysts predicting a 25 basis point cut, though market pricing only reflects a one-in-three chance of this occurring. The Aussie slipped 0.1% to $0.6538. The currency has found some support from expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will hold rates on Tuesday, following an uncomfortably high reading of core inflation. Cryptocurrency bitcoin was down 2.6% at $107,152. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/dollar-flirts-with-three-month-peak-investors-look-us-data-releases-2025-11-03/

2025-11-03 05:47

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Ankur Banerjee With markets still in recovery mode after an action-packed week that has left risk momentum intact, the spotlight has shifted to the smattering of private economic data this week that may shed light on the health of the U.S. labour market. Sign up here. The U.S. shutdown, now the second-longest ever behind the 2018-2019 shutdown that lasted 35 days, is set to continue and that means there will be no government economic data. So, no nonfarm payrolls, no JOLTS job openings. Investors will instead parse through private employment data from ADP to gauge the direction of U.S. monetary policy. The ADP data is due later in the week. A divided Federal Reserve has left investors searching for clarity. Fed Chair Jerome Powell surprised markets last week with a hawkish tone, suggesting the recent rate cut could be the last one for the year. But influential Fed Governor Christopher Waller made the case on Friday for more policy easing to shore up a weakening labour market. Traders are pricing in a 69% chance of a rate cut in December, down from 90% a week earlier, CME FedWatch tool showed. The afterglow of the widely expected trade truce between China and the U.S. has well and truly simmered down as Chinese stocks grind lower. It is a classic case of buy the rumour, sell the fact. On Monday, data showed China's factory activity in October expanded at a slower pace as new orders and output both waned amid tariff anxiety, while big manufacturing hubs across the region also struggled to fire up in October. Similar reports from Europe will be scrutinised by markets later in the session. European futures point to a higher open, while the euro was loitering at a three-month low. Powell's hawkish tone has helped lift the dollar although analysts don't expect the greenback to stay strong for long, suggesting data will soon show cracks in the world's largest economy. Key developments that could influence markets on Monday: Economic events: Manufacturing data for October https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-view-europe-2025-11-03/

2025-11-03 05:25

US ADP employment data due on Wednesday China cuts gold tax exemption for some retailers Dollar holds near three-month peak Nov 3 (Reuters) - Gold prices held steady on Monday as the dollar hovered near a three-month high while traders awaited U.S. private payroll data for further cues on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook. Spot gold was up 0.1% at $4,008.34 an ounce by 1234 GMT. U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose 0.7% to $4,022.40. Sign up here. The dollar index (.DXY) , opens new tab hovered near a three-month high, making gold more expensive for buyers with other currencies. "We are still in a consolidation mode. The lack of U.S. economic data makes it a bit more difficult, but weaker U.S. economic data should support further Fed rate cuts and allow gold to move to $4,200 per ounce by the end of the year," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. Traders are now pricing in about a 70% chance of a Fed rate cut in December, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Non-yielding gold thrives when interest rates are low and in times of economic uncertainty. Investors have their eyes on ADP U.S. employment data and ISM PMIs this week, for indicators that could alter the Fed's hawkish stance. China ended a long-standing tax exemption policy for some gold retailers on Saturday, potentially setting back a buying spree for the precious metal in the world's biggest consumer market. UBS said it expects only a marginal impact on global gold prices from the new rule, citing strong investment and central bank buying. Gold is seeing resistance between $4,000 and $4,050, and prices could see further downside if that holds, analysts at Heraeus said in a note. "The price would need to climb above $4,155/oz to give an initial indication that a resumption of the rally had occurred," they added. U.S. President Donald Trump last week agreed to trim tariffs on China in exchange for concessions by Beijing on illicit fentanyl trade, U.S. soybean purchases and rare earths exports. Elsewhere, spot silver rose 0.2% to $48.75 an ounce, platinum climbed 1.4% to $1,590.61 and palladium gained 0.6% to $1,442.81. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-steadies-stronger-dollar-investors-trim-rate-cut-bets-2025-11-03/

2025-11-03 04:50

MUMBAI, Nov 3(Reuters) - The Indian rupee spent much of Monday's trading session within striking distance of its all-time low, but managed to hold above the level on the back of likely dollar-selling market intervention by the central bank. The rupee closed at 88.7775 against the U.S. dollar, nearly unchanged on the day and a whisker away from its record low of 88.80 hit in late-September. Sign up here. The Reserve Bank of India was likely active through much of the session, according to traders, while persistent dollar bids from importers and foreign banks kept the local currency in a sub-5 paisa trading range. Over the past year since President Donald Trump's return to the White House, the rupee has declined over 5% as investors grapple with stark shifts in U.S. trade and immigration policies. More recently, a hawkish turn in the Federal Reserve's policy outlook and dollar demand, spurred by the maturity of positions in the non-deliverable forwards market, have become a sore spot for the local currency. "The USD appears to be bottoming out in the near term, with bearish positioning starting to normalise and scope emerging for a short squeeze," analysts at Standard Chartered said in a note. Their counterparts at Goldman Sachs hold a moderately positive bias on Asian currencies and are recommending a bullish position on the Indian rupee, using an exotic option structure, despite its latest slide towards its all-time low. Traders expect the RBI to continue intervening to support the rupee in the near-term. While a fall to 89-89.10 cannot be ruled out, recent price action indicates that the central bank certainly won't allow a quick decline of the rupee, a trader at a private bank said. Elsewhere, the dollar index was perched near a three-month high on Monday, while Asian currencies were flat-to-modestly weaker. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/dollar-strength-keeps-rupee-back-foot-rbi-counted-support-2025-11-03/