2024-10-03 07:48

Oct 3 (Reuters) - UK power generator and network operator SSE's (SSE.L) , opens new tab Dogger Bank A offshore wind project is not expected to be completed until the second half of 2025, but that would not impact its annual earnings guidance it said on Thursday. The project, originally expected to be completed in the first half of 2025, will have a total capacity of 1.2 gigawatts, capable of powering around 2 million homes. It is part of the wider Dogger Bank Wind Farm being developed in three phases, A, B and C – located between 130km and 190km from the North East coast of England. Collectively they will become the world’s largest offshore wind farm, the project's website says. The Perth, UK-based company forecast first-half adjusted earnings per share of more than 45 pence, and said that renewables performance for the six months ended Sept. 30 was higher than previous years, but in line with expectations, reflecting weather conditions during the period. Shares in SSE were trading 1.5% higher at 1,902.50 pence in early trade. Separately, National Grid (NG.L) , opens new tab, another major player in Britain's energy sector, said its half-year performance was in line with its expectations, adding that underlying earnings in the second half of the fiscal year are expected to be more than the first-half period ended Sept. 30. National Grid also said it expects an additional 70 million pound contribution from the Electricity System Operator (ESO) compared to guidance, reflecting ownership and held-for-sale accounting treatment up to Sept. 30. Last month, National Grid agreed to sell its ESO to the UK government for 630 million pounds ($829.27 million), including debt, as the Labour government and energy regulator Ofgem aim to establish an independent National Energy System Operator. National Grid shares were down 0.7% in early trade. ($1 = 0.7597 pounds) Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/uks-sse-says-dogger-bank-project-be-completed-second-half-2025-2024-10-03/

2024-10-03 07:20

BENGALURU/JOHANNESBURG, Oct 3 (Reuters) - Most emerging market currencies are set to trade in tight ranges or pare some of the year-to-date gains in the next three months after the U.S. Federal Reserve curbed expectations for aggressive rate cuts, according to a Reuters poll. After enduring significant losses last year and in the first half of 2024, emerging market currencies made notable gains against the dollar in recent weeks after the Fed reduced borrowing costs by 50 basis points. However, the rally in emerging market currencies is nearing its end after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated the U.S. central bank would likely maintain quarter-percentage-point interest rate cuts moving forward. Rising geopolitical tensions have also steered investors towards the safe-haven dollar and away from risk-prone emerging markets. The broader foreign exchange poll projected the dollar to hold steady in coming months. Most emerging markets currencies were forecast to trade in a range or weaken slightly in the next three months, according to the Sept. 30 to Oct. 3 survey of 59 foreign exchange strategists. "We are not expecting...any further major gains in the EMFX spot versus the dollar. We are expecting a relatively even mix of winners and losers against the dollar by year-end," said Phoenix Kalen, global head of emerging markets research at Societe Generale. "We don't think the Fed funds path will climb much higher from here, so that limits the tailwind for the dollar. But at the same time, it's unlikely to go lower." The Chinese yuan , Thai baht , and Malaysian ringgit were expected to lose 1.2% to 2.0% in the next three months. Turkey's lira was forecast to weaken nearly 5.0% by then. Expectations of the yuan losing all its year-to-date gains over the next three months coincides with the People's Bank of China unveiling its most substantial stimulus since the pandemic, aiming to drive the economy towards the government's 5% growth target and away from deflation. A surge in growth in China, a significant trading partner to many nations, would largely benefit emerging market currencies. Median estimates showed the Indian rupee would trade at 83.73 per dollar in three months, barely changed from last month's prediction. The South African rand was expected to soften almost 1% per the dollar in the next three months. It has gained around 8% in the past six months following elections in May. "For now we are a little bit cautious on EMFX into next year because of potential dollar recovery but at the same time we're keeping an eye on what's happening in China and stimulus measures there and how that impacts the global commodity space," said Mitul Kotecha, head of FX & EM macro strategy at Barclays. "The big caveat is we have U.S. elections coming up and that could be something that just prompts a degree of caution as we go into November." (Other stories from the October Reuters foreign exchange poll) Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/em-currencies-set-hold-steady-or-pare-gains-rest-2024-2024-10-03/

2024-10-03 06:39

Perth Mint's gold product sales in Sept. hit 10-month high Odds for a 50 bps cut reduced to 37% versus with 49% last week U.S. NFP due on Friday Oct 3 (Reuters) - Gold edged lower on Thursday, trading in a tight range, as investors were cautious ahead of a key U.S. economic data that might provide clues about the size of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts expected later this year. Spot gold edged down 0.1% to $2,653.95 per ounce by 0612 GMT, trading in a tight range of $11. Prices hit a record high of $2,685.42 on Sept. 26. U.S. gold futures gained 0.2% to $2,674.40. Gold is consolidating at this point but prices will likely retest the all-time high of $2,685 as charts show persistent strong upward trends, said Brian Lan, managing director at Singapore-based dealer GoldSilver Central. Investors are watching out for the ISM services data and the initial jobless claims, due later in the day, along with the U.S. non-farm payroll data expected on Friday. Data on Wednesday showed U.S. private payrolls increased more than expected in September - further evidence that labour market conditions were not deteriorating. Expectations of another 50-basis-point rate cut at the Fed's November meeting have dipped, with markets currently pricing in a 37% chance, down from 49% last week, according to CME's FedWatch Tool , opens new tab. Gold tends to thrive in a low interest rate environment and political turmoil. "Middle East tensions and U.S. elections will continue supporting bullion in the longer term... In the short-tem, some funds might shift to oil from gold since oil is doing better," Lan said. Israel bombed central Beirut, killing at least six, after its forces suffered the deadliest day on the Lebanese front in a year of clashes against Iran-backed armed group Hezbollah. Perth Mint's gold product sales touched a 10-month high in September, while silver sales hit a seven-month high. Spot silver fell 0.8% to $31.61, platinum shed 0.5% to $997.80 and palladium lost 1.5% to $999.85. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/gold-rangebound-investors-brace-key-us-economic-data-2024-10-03/

2024-10-03 06:26

Tentative deal includes a 62% wage hike over six years - sources Strike affected 36 ports, causing backlog of anchored ships Biden applauds "critical progress towards a strong contract" NEW YORK/WASHINGTON, Oct 3 (Reuters) - U.S. dock workers and port operators reached a tentative deal that will immediately end a crippling three-day strike that has shut down shipping on the U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast, the two sides said Thursday. The tentative agreement is for a wage hike of around 62% over six years, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters, including a worker on the picket line who heard the announcement. That would raise average wages to about $63 an hour from $39 an hour over the life of the contract. The International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) workers union had been seeking a 77% raise while the employer group - United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) - had previously raised its offer to a nearly 50% hike. The deal ends the biggest work stoppage of its kind in nearly half a century, which blocked unloading of container ships from Maine to Texas and threatened shortages of everything from bananas to auto parts, triggering a backlog of anchored ships outside major ports. The union and the port operators said in a statement that they would extend their master contract until Jan. 15, 2025 to return to the bargaining table to negotiate all outstanding issues. "Effective immediately, all current job actions will cease and all work covered by the Master Contract will resume," the statement said. Among key issues that remain unresolved is automation that workers say will lead to job losses. Union boss Harold Daggett said previously that employers such as container ship operator Maersk (MAERSKb.CO) , opens new tab and its APM Terminals North America had not agreed to demands to stop port automation projects that threaten jobs. U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration had sided with the union, putting pressure on the port employers to raise their offer to secure a deal and citing the shipping industry's bumper profits since the COVID-19 pandemic. The tentative deal "represents critical progress towards a strong contract," Biden said on Thursday. "Collective bargaining works," he added. His administration has repeatedly resisted calls from business trade groups and Republican lawmakers to use federal powers to halt the strike - a move that would undermine Democratic support among unions ahead of the Nov. 5 presidential election. The White House had been heavily involved in talks to get a deal, sources said. After days of talks, White House Chief of Staff Jeff Zients convened a 5:30 a.m. (0930 GMT) virtual meeting on Thursday with the CEOs of ocean carriers and impressed upon them the need to reopen the ports to speed hurricane recovery efforts, according to a source briefed on the events. The port strike hit just as southeastern states were struggling for supplies following a deadly hurricane. Top White House economic adviser Lael Brainard told the carriers at the meeting they needed a new offer to end the strike, and asked them to put a new offer on the table. By midday the shippers had agreed to make a new higher offer. Acting Secretary of Labor Julie Su told the carriers they could get the union to the table and leaders would agree to extend the contract, if the new offer was higher. She was in New Jersey to meet with union leaders to secure their agreement, the sources said. 'GOOD NEWS' The ILA launched the strike by 45,000 port workers, its first major work stoppage since 1977, on Tuesday after talks for a new six-year contract broke down. At least 45 container vessels that have been unable to unload were anchored outside the strike-hit East Coast and Gulf Coast ports by Wednesday, up from just three before the strike began on Sunday, according to Everstream Analytics. JP Morgan analysts have said the strike would cost the U.S. economy around $5 billion per day. The strike affected 36 ports - including New York, Baltimore and Houston - that handle a range of containerized goods. "The decision to end the current strike and allow the East and Gulf coast ports to reopen is good news for the nation’s economy, National Retail Federation said in a statement. "The sooner they reach a (final) deal, the better for all American families." National Association of Manufacturers CEO Jay Timmons said "cooler heads have prevailed and the ports will reopen" and called it "a victory for all parties involved - preserving jobs, safeguarding supply chains and preventing further economic disruptions." Economists have said the port closures would not initially raise consumer prices because companies had accelerated shipments in recent months of key goods. However, a prolonged stoppage would have eventually filtered through, with food prices likely to react first, according to Morgan Stanley economists. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/ship-queue-grows-us-ports-dockworker-strike-enters-third-day-2024-10-03/

2024-10-03 06:10

LITTLETON, Colorado, Oct 3 (Reuters) - Beijing last month dispensed the most aggressive stimulus measures since the pandemic in a bid to revive the flagging Chinese economy, and traders and investors are now looking for signs if the medicine is working. A slew of markets have already reacted positively to the measures, including equity indices and industrial commodities that traders and investors expect to benefit from any enduring recovery in the world's second-largest economy. But any sustained rebound in Chinese industrial activity will also trigger a fresh climb in associated emissions, as the world's largest pool of steel mills, chemical plants, refineries and cement kilns potentially crank up simultaneously. And as China is by far the world's largest polluter, anticipating exactly how any economic rebound translates into emissions rises will be key for climate watchers going forward. Below are key data sets and markets that can help track the extent of any Chinese industrial revival and allow for emissions impact assessments. TARGETED INTERVENTION The core feature of Beijing's latest stimulus salvo was steep cuts to bank reserve ratios and existing mortgage rates designed to clear some of the gloom from the country's massive but ailing property sector. An enduring credit crunch among property developers has effectively frozen construction activity across the country and resulted in a massive overhang of unfinished projects that have weighed on property prices and sentiment. That in turn has stifled home buying interest and darkened the mood of Chinese consumers who previously viewed property ownership as a key means of wealth creation. If Beijing's latest stimulus moves are effective, construction activity should pick up among unfinished projects and work on new developments may gather pace heading into 2025. To track this activity, data on new housing starts (.aCNNPRT) , opens new tab, property prices (CNHPIM=ECI) , opens new tab and sales-to-inventory ratios published by China's National Bureau of Statistics are available on market data platforms such as those provided by LSEG. Data on cement production - critical in all major property projects - can also be tracked alongside property metrics, which can allow for emissions impact assessments from the associated upturn in cement output and consumption. WIDER RANGE TRACKING Data on other industrial products can also reveal the extent of any revival, as output of electricity, passenger cars, steel, chemicals and refined fuels are all positively correlated with broader economic activity. Imports of thermal coal - China's primary source of power and electricity generation - can also provide a clue as to the growth trajectory of key industrial hubs in China. The country gets most of the coal used for power generation from its own mines, but imports roughly 6% of the coal it needs from Indonesia and Australia and delivers that to industrial hubs that are not well connected to domestic mines. The southern port city of Guangzhou is an especially critical coal import hub, as it is geographically closer to key coal export ports in Indonesia than it is to China's own main coal mining hub of Inner Mongolia. Guangzhou is also a major manufacturing hub along the Pearl River Delta, home to scores of factories and industrial plants that adjust power consumption and output to the ebbs and flows of the broader economy. Tracking coal flows into the Guangzhou is possible using ship-tracking services on LSEG and from firms such as Kepler. And historical data suggests coal import volumes into Guangzhou are highly correlated with coal import volumes into China as a whole, and so offer a reliable proxy on national-level coal import trends. MARKET MOVERS The price movement of certain commodities with heavy industrial applications can also act as a gauge on China's economic health. The prices of iron ore, used in steel making, and hot rolled coil steel, used in construction and in car and appliance production, can be tracked on market data services and can act as a leading indicator on end-user demand for those products. Changes to China's power sector carbon intensity can also reveal shifts in the composition of power fuel use and act as a signal of any upturn in overall power consumption. Energy think tank Ember tracks how much carbon dioxide is emitted per unit of electricity that is generated, and historic trends in that data show increases in carbon intensity during periods of economic growth. All told, a slew of regularly updated data points are on hand to help track the impact of China's stimulus efforts, which look set to take root across its economy over the coming months and potentially elevate greenhouse gas emissions. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/key-markets-metrics-track-following-chinas-stimulus-maguire-2024-10-03/

2024-10-03 06:01

Wall Street stocks finish lower Oil prices settle up 5% US dollar index hits six-week high Safe-haven gold flat NEW YORK/LONDON, Oct 3 (Reuters) - Global stocks fell on Thursday, weighed by tepid trading in equity markets across the U.S. and other major regions, while oil prices jumped, buoyed by rising geopolitical tension from the Middle East conflict. Wall Street's main indexes finished lower after trading slightly higher early in the session. Data released on Thursday showed rising U.S. jobless claims, indicating labor market softness, but strong service-sector activity. The closely watched nonfarm payrolls report for September is due on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) , opens new tab fell 0.44% to 42,011.59, the S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab fell 0.17% to 5,699.94 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) , opens new tab fell 0.04% to 17,918.48. European stocks finished down 0.93% (.STOXX) , opens new tab as investors digested weak business activity survey data from the bloc. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) , opens new tab fell 0.39% to 842.18. Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) , opens new tab had earlier shed 1.3% overnight, largely driven by Hong Kong stocks (.HSI) , opens new tab sagging after a sizzling rally, with several markets, including mainland China and South Korea, closed for the day. Japan's Nikkei (.N225) , opens new tab, however, ended up nearly 2% after the country's newly elected prime minister Shigeru Ishiba said it was not the time to raise interest rates after meeting with Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda. Israel bombed Beirut early on Thursday following a year of clashes with Iran-backed Hezbollah. Asked if he would support Israel striking Iran's oil facilities, U.S. President Joe Biden told reporters on Thursday "we're discussing that." He added: "There is nothing going to happen today." Brent crude futures settled up 5.03% at $77.62 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled up 5.15% to $73.71. "The fact that energy is up where everything else is down pretty significantly is an indication that today's move is a lot about the escalating conflict in the Middle East," said James St. Aubin, chief investment officer at Ocean Park Asset Management in Santa Monica, California. "There's probably some trepidation or maybe some hesitation about putting money to work ahead of tomorrow's jobs report." Gold prices were flat as the U.S. dollar strengthened against major currencies. Spot gold fell 0.01% to $2,657.24 an ounce, while U.S. gold futures settled 0.4% higher at $2,679.2. In currencies, the U.S. dollar index rose to a six-week high, reaching 102.09, the highest since Aug. 19. It last rose 0.33% to 101.98. The euro was slightly down at $1.1026 , and not far from Wednesday's low of $1.10325, a level last seen on Sept. 12. Sterling weakened 1.1% to $1.3122 after Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey told the Guardian newspaper that the central bank could become a "bit more aggressive" on rate cuts if inflation continued to ease. Against the Japanese yen , the dollar strengthened 0.1% to 146.61. Treasury yields rose after the jobless claims data and service sector report. Two-year Treasury yields were last up at 3.7095% on Thursday, while benchmark 10-year yields were last up at 3.853%. Markets imply a 35% chance the Fed will cut interest rates by another 50 basis points in November, compared with almost 60% last week, and have around 70 basis points of easing priced in by year-end. "There are some uncertainties as it relates to the U.S. election and in our near term there's some volatility as it relates to the Middle East and what's happening there," said Arun Daniel, portfolio manager at American Century Investments. "People are cautious. But from a long-term perspective, we're positive." Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/global-markets-wrapup-1-2024-10-03/