2024-10-02 04:53

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin Buckland Escalating hostilities in the Middle East gripped the attention of traders and investors in Asia on Wednesday as worries lingered over the possibility of a wider war. Crude oil continued its march higher, gold hovered close to its all-time high and bonds were bought along with the safe-haven dollar. But some markets were willing to look past the risks, particularly in Hong Kong, where the benchmark Hang Seng stock index surged more than 4% as the market's sugar rush from China's stimulus announcements showed little sign of fading. The euphoria might have gained even more momentum if mainland Chinese markets hadn't shut for the Golden Week holiday. The risk-sensitive Australia and New Zealand dollars rebounded. Both countries have close links to the fortunes of China, a top trading partner. European stock futures currently point to a higher open. Iran has said its attack is over, barring further provocation, after a salvo of some 180 ballistic missiles. But Israel - fully backed by the United States - vowed a response. There's little to distract from Middle East developments during Europe's day, with a dearth of macroeconomic data or scheduled corporate announcements. The course of British ties with the European Union could be steered, however, by UK Premier Keir Starmer's first talks on issues such as trade and security with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Brussels. Both sides have been talking about a "reset". There is a host of ECB speakers on the calendar for Wednesday, including Vice President Luis de Guindos and chief economist Philip Lane, although a quarter-point rate cut this month looks all but assured following a run of mild inflation readings and hints from ECB boss Christine Lagarde. When it comes to monetary policy, the Fed is likely to garner more attention. On Friday we'll get monthly payrolls figures, which could be make-or-break for whether U.S. policy makers opt for a 25- or 50-basis-point rate reduction next month. We'll also get some hints from the private-sector ADP employment report later today. In fact, the U.S. day has a lot to keep markets occupied, if the Middle East situation stabilises. A quick end to the massive dock worker strike that is halting half of the country's shipments looks unlikely, with no active negotiations seen overnight. The walkout, hitting everything from cars to corn, may cost some $5 billion per day. Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday: -Euro zone unemployment rate (Aug) -ECB speakers including de Guindos, Lane -European Commission President von der Leyen talks with UK PM Starmer -U.S. ADP employment (Sep) Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/global-markets-view-europe-2024-10-02/

2024-10-02 00:45

Weakening Krathon expected to hit land early on Thursday Forecast to travel up populous western coast Cities, counties declare holiday for Wednesday Financial markets shut, TSMC sees no major impact One person reported dead, two others missing KAOHSIUNG, Taiwan, Oct 2 (Reuters) - Taiwan shut down on Wednesday, grounding hundreds of flights and closing schools, offices and financial markets ahead of the arrival of a weakening Typhoon Krathon with one person reported dead and torrential rain lashing the island's south. Officials in the key port city of Kaohsiung, set to be in the eye of the storm, told people to stay home and avoid the sea, rivers and mountains, warning of a repeat of 1977's Typhoon Thelma that killed 37 and devastated the city of 2.7 million. Although the typhoon has weakened, the threats from a storm surge, strong winds and rain remain as it slowly makes its way towards Taiwan's coast, weather forecasters said. The typhoon would lose power once it hit land, said Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Chi-mai, but would still bring intense winds and rain. "But if it moves north, the winds will strengthen again, so the threat to Kaohsiung will continue to exist, and people cannot take this lightly," he told reporters. Once it hits land, the typhoon could be downgraded into a tropical depression and dissipate, which has happened only once before in Taiwan, in 2001, forecasters said. That storm, called Trami, dumped vast amounts of rain leading to massive flooding. The fire department reported one person dead, an elderly man in the eastern county of Hualien who fell from a tree, with two others missing and 70 injuries. On Wednesday, all the island's cities and counties declared a day off, shutting financial markets (.TWII) , opens new tab and cancelling domestic flights, along with 246 international ones, while more than 10,000 people were evacuated, mostly in the south and east. The Taipei city government announced a second day off for Thursday, meaning financial markets will remain closed. Typhoons often hit Taiwan's mountainous and sparsely populated east coast facing the Pacific, but Krathon is set to make landfall on its flat western plain. It is forecast to hit between Kaohsiung and its neighbouring city of Tainan in the early hours of Thursday, before heading northeast up towards Taipei, the capital, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said. "Because of Typhoon Gaemi being quite severe earlier this year, everyone is more cautious and prepared this time around," said sales representative Yu Ren-yu, 35, picking up sandbags at a government office, referring to July's storm that killed 11. "First be prepared, then we can face this typhoon." The typhoon has revived the older generation's bad memories of Thelma, prompting extra precautions, said Chou Yi-tang, a government official working in the Siaogang district home to the airport. "We were hit directly by the eyewall," he added, describing events almost five decades ago. "Power was out for two weeks and no water for almost a month. It was disastrous." More than 700 sandbags have been distributed in his district, a record for a typhoon, while authorities are making more to meet demand, Chou said. Taiwan's defence ministry said it had put more than 38,000 troops on standby. The north-south high speed rail line stayed open, but scaled back services. TSMC (2330.TW) , opens new tab, the world's largest contract chipmaker and a major Apple (AAPL.O) , opens new tab and Nvidia (NVDA.O) , opens new tab supplier, said on Tuesday it did not expect the typhoon would have a significant impact on operations. TSMC's factories are along the west coast, some in the city of Tainan. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taiwan-shuts-down-ahead-typhoon-krathons-arrival-torrential-rain-forecast-2024-10-02/

2024-10-02 00:06

NEW YORK, Oct 2 (Reuters) - The dollar hit a three-week high against the euro on Wednesday after the ADP national employment report showed U.S. private payrolls increased more than expected in September, ahead of Friday's highly anticipated jobs data. Traders are also keeping a close eye on geopolitical tensions a day after Israel was attacked by Iran in a strike that raised fears the oil-producing Middle East could be engulfed in a wider conflict. Private payrolls increased by 143,000 jobs last month after rising by an upwardly revised 103,000 in August, the ADP National Employment Report showed on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 120,000 job additions. "The ADP number looked pretty good and points to a decent NFP print,” said Brad Bechtel, global head of FX at Jefferies in New York. The government nonfarm payrolls report for September on Friday is expected to show employers added 140,000 jobs during the month, while the unemployment rate stayed steady at 4.2%, according to economists polled by Reuters. (USNFAR=ECI) , opens new tab (USUNR=ECI) , opens new tab Improving economic data and more hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Monday have boosted the dollar and led traders to pare bets that the U.S. central bank will cut rates by another 50 basis points when it meets next month. There is "a little bit of a subtle shift here where people are less concerned about the U.S., pricing less in terms of aggressive rate cuts here in the U.S., and shifting views on other areas," Bechtel said. Traders are now pricing in a 35% probability of a 50 basis point cut at the Fed's Nov. 6-7 meeting, down from 57% a week ago, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool shows. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said on Wednesday that the 50 basis point cut last month was an acknowledgement that its policy rate was "out of sync" with where the economy stands, but shouldn't be taken as a sign that the battle with inflation is finished. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing report on Thursday will also provide further clues on the strength of the U.S. economy. The dollar index rose 0.42% to 101.68, the highest since Sept. 11 and the euro fell 0.27% to $1.1037, the lowest since the same date. The single currency has weakened on increasing expectations that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates later this month as inflation recedes. Euro zone inflation is increasingly likely to ease back to the ECB's 2% target, ECB board member Isabel Schnabel said, dropping her long-standing warning about the difficulty of taming price growth. The yen also fell after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said Japan is not in an environment for an additional rate increase, an apparent effort to shake off his reputation as a monetary hawk, after a meeting with Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda on Wednesday. The dollar gained 1.94% to 146.34 yen . The greenback has also benefited from safe-haven demand on concerns about escalating tension in the Middle East. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu promised that Iran would pay for its missile attack against Israel on Tuesday, while Tehran said any retaliation would be met with "vast destruction," raising fears of a wider war. In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin fell 0.11% to $60,712. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/dollar-firm-war-widens-middle-east-2024-10-02/

2024-10-01 23:38

SWANNANOA, North Carolina, Oct 1 (Reuters) - Before the Dixon family realized the danger, the creek behind their North Carolina home had become a raging torrent. Before they could escape, Jessica Dixon said, her father was swept away to his death. The Dixon family is among thousands around Asheville who were caught by surprise and touched by tragedy when Hurricane Helene swept hundreds of miles inland after making landfall on Florida's Panhandle. The storm brought what weather experts say was once-in-a-generation rainfall to the picturesque mountain region, destroying roads and bridges, cutting off water and power, and leaving dozens dead. Jessica, 40, recounted her family's tragedy from the driveway of a friend in Asheville, near her hometown of Swannanoa in an area that once seemed far from the extreme weather that has struck other parts of the U.S. in recent years. She said as the water flooded their house and rose to chest level last week, her father, George, told the family that they had no option but to flee. None of the five - George, his wife, Jill, Jessica, or her two teenaged sons, Parker and wheel-chair-bound Kaden - made it to the car. "Dad went to the back to grab my mom’s purse where the keys were attached,” Jessica said. “Then, all I could hear was Parker saying, 'Grandpa’s gone. Grandpa’s gone.’ And he was washed away." Jessica thinks her father, who she said was around 70 years old and getting ready to celebrate his 50th wedding anniversary next week, was pulled by the flood waters through big windows in a bedroom along with the furniture and everything else. "It all went, Woosh!” she said. The rest of the family then retreated to another bedroom farther from the overflowing Bee Tree Creek on the other side of the house. Jessica said the water was nearly to her chin. She said that she and the other family members spent six or seven hours clinging to a large leather guitar case and a dresser to keep afloat in the creek water, which had turned fetid when a septic tank flooded. "That guitar case saved our lives," she said. When the water gradually receded, the family was able to climb out windows of the front of the house. The front door was blocked by a refrigerator, Jessica said. As they walked down the nearly washed-out road, firefighters picked them up and brought them to the Swannanoa Fire Rescue substation. Her mother, who Jessica said has arthritis, stayed behind with neighbors who lived at a higher elevation, away from the creek. Jessica eventually found her father's body a short way downstream from their house. The body was hung up in debris and fallen trees. Law enforcement officials said the body of a man who appeared to be about 70 was retrieved on Sunday night from the creek near the Dixon family's house. They could not confirm that it was the body of George Dixon. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/one-north-carolina-family-raging-torrent-becomes-death-trap-2024-10-01/

2024-10-01 23:29

US job openings rebound in August Port strike halts half of ocean shipping Indexes: Dow down 0.4%, S&P 500 down 0.9%, Nasdaq down 1.5% NEW YORK, Oct 1 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks ended lower, with the Nasdaq losing more than 1%, on Tuesday as investors grew more cautious after Iran fired missiles at Israel. Iran launched the salvo of ballistic missiles in retaliation for Israel's campaign against Tehran's Hezbollah allies. In response, U.S. President Joe Biden directed the U.S. military to aid Israel's defense and shoot down missiles aimed at Israel, the White House National Security Council said. While the broader market fell, shares of energy companies rose along with U.S. oil prices, which settled up 2.4%. Shares of Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) , opens new tab gained 2.3%. Defense stocks also rose, including Northrop Grumman (NOC.N) , opens new tab, which rallied 3%, and Lockheed Martin , up 3.6%. The S&P 500 aerospace and defense index (.SPLRCAERO) , opens new tab climbed to a record high. Utilities (.SPLRCU) , opens new tab were up 0.8%. Airline shares fell, including Delta Air Lines (DAL.N) , opens new tab, which was down 1.6%. Investors avoided risk following the Middle East news, but indexes ended off their lows of the day. "If we do see further escalation I could see continued market weakness because we just don't know how far this is going to go," said Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel in Charlottesville, Virginia. "The level of risk has increased. The markets have had a good year and people can get scared out of the market depending on what happens over the next couple of weeks." The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) , opens new tab fell 173.18 points, or 0.41%, to 42,156.97, the S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab lost 53.73 points, or 0.93%, at 5,708.75 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) , opens new tab dropped 278.81 points, or 1.53%, to 17,910.36. On Monday, the three major U.S. indexes scored strong gains for September and for the quarter. CBOE's market volatility index, Wall Street's fear gauge, (.VIX) , opens new tab rose. Data released early on Tuesday showed U.S. job openings rebounded in August, while the Institute for Management Supply's (ISM) report showed manufacturing activity stood at 47.2 in September, versus estimates of 47.5. Investors were also cautious ahead of U.S. jobless claims data on Thursday and monthly payrolls on Friday. Traders are pricing in a 38% chance that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 50 basis points in November, up from bets of around 35% on Monday but down from 58% a week ago, CME Group's FedWatch Tool showed. The U.S. central bank on Sept. 18 cut rates by 50 basis points, kicking off a new easing cycle. Investors also monitored a port strike on the East Coast and the Gulf Coast, halting the flow of about half the nation's ocean shipping. The strike that began on Tuesday is not expected to cause global supply problems as deep or severe as during the COVID-19 pandemic, but still creates more economic uncertainty for Fed policymakers to assess. Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.32-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.36-to-1 ratio favored decliners. The S&P 500 posted 51 new 52-week highs and two new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 75 new highs and 137 new lows. Volume on U.S. exchanges was 13.16 billion shares, compared with the 11.98 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/futures-dip-ahead-labor-data-powell-signals-modest-rate-cuts-2024-10-01/

2024-10-01 23:09

BRASILIA/SAO PAULO, Oct 1 (Reuters) - The airplane transporting Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has been circling in the air due to a technical issue it encountered after departing Mexico City, the Brazilian Air Force said in a statement released on Tuesday afternoon. The plane's pilots are waiting to consume fuel before landing in the same airport, according to the statement, which added that Lula is expected to use a different plane to return to Brazil. Lula made an official visit Mexico to attend Claudia Sheinbaum's presidential inauguration on Tuesday. Brazilian news outlet Metropoles said the plane carrying Lula was still in Mexico's airspace. Brazil's presidential airplane is a 20-year-old Airbus A319 purchased by Lula in 2004 during his first term, which was nicknamed "Aerolula" and has since also transported former Presidents Dilma Rousseff, Michel Temer and Jair Bolsonaro. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/airplane-carrying-brazil-president-circling-mexican-airspace-after-technical-2024-10-01/