2026-02-08 15:49

WASHINGTON, Feb 8 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday he would not expect the Federal Reserve to move quickly to shrink its balance sheet, even under Fed chief nominee Kevin Warsh, who has criticized the U.S. central bank's bond purchases. Bessent said on Fox News Channel's "Sunday Morning Futures" program that the Fed could take up to a year to make decisions on its balance sheet, adding that Warsh will be a very independent Fed chief. Sign up here. "That will be up to the Fed in terms of what they want to do with the balance sheet," Bessent said. "I wouldn't expect them to do anything quickly if they move to an ample (reserves) regime policy, and that does require a larger balance sheet. So, I would think that they'll probably sit back, take at least a year to decide what they want to do." The Fed vastly expanded its balance sheet during the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic to push down long-term interest rates, to a peak of $9 trillion in the summer of 2022 before allowing its holdings to run down -- a process called quantitative tightening -- to $6.6 trillion in late 2025. But in December, the Fed started to grow the stock of bonds it holds again via technical purchases of Treasury bills in a bid to ensure there was enough liquidity in the financial system to provide firm control over its interest rate target range. Warsh, who served as a Fed governor from 2006 to 2011, has argued that large Fed holdings distort finances in the economy and what the Fed now holds should be slashed. President Donald Trump has said he wants mortgage rates to be much lower, and shrinking the Fed's balance sheet would work against that goal and be difficult to achieve while maintaining financial stability, experts say. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-treasurys-bessent-says-fed-will-take-its-time-balance-sheet-moves-2026-02-08/

2026-02-08 13:33

TOKYO, Feb 8 (Reuters) - Japan must take a "professional" approach in tapping its huge foreign reserves to fund spending and tax cuts as doing so would not be easy, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Sunday. Tapping foreign reserves could be an option given recent yen moves, though doing so could cause problems as the reserves are used to conduct currency intervention, Katayama said in a television programme. Sign up here. "The prime minister understands this point well. We would need to look at markets and decide what the most effective asset management is for Japan, so that we are taking a professional approach that does not cause any problems," she said. "If necessary, we would like to seek dialogue with markets on Monday in various forms," she said. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-must-take-professional-approach-tapping-fx-reserves-finance-minister-says-2026-02-08/

2026-02-08 13:29

Japan PM Takaichi wins big in snap election Yen may face further pressure 'Takaichi trade' has been positive for stocks, not JGBs TOKYO, Feb 8 (Reuters) - Japan's volatile financial markets must now contend with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi firmly in the driver's seat after her decisive victory on Sunday, which hands her an electoral mandate to reflate the economy. The question for investors is whether Takaichi's electoral momentum will prompt her to expand her stimulus ambitions or if it lends her the political leeway to proceed more cautiously. Sign up here. Since she began her rise to become the nation's first female premier in October, the "Takaichi trade" has pushed domestic shares to record highs while causing a precipitous selloff in Japanese government bonds and the yen. Voters braved heavy snowfalls in Tokyo and other parts of Japan to deliver what exit polls indicated to be the most decisive win for Takaichi's Liberal Democratic Party since 1996. "The stock market is a true believer in Takaichi, so the big win is going to be good news for equities when the markets open on Monday," said Chris Scicluna, the head of research at Daiwa Capital Markets Europe. Takaichi, a devotee of the "Abenomics" stimulus policies of the late premier Shinzo Abe, has pledged a proactive fiscal policy funded largely through bond issuance. She came to office at a low point in power and popularity for her Liberal Democratic Party, which has ruled Japan for most of the post-World War Two period, forcing her to bargain with opposition , opens new tab parties with even more liberal fiscal platforms. "The administration's foundation will become much more stable, making it easier for expectations to build around advancing economic policy," said Kota Suzuki, a strategist at Nomura Asset Management. "Because there will no longer be a need to actively seek the opposition's cooperation, there will be less pressure for giveaway-style fiscal expansion." With polls already indicating a decisive LDP win, Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 Index (.N225) , opens new tab set an all-time high of 54,782.83 on Tuesday. Big winners of late include sectors like defence, artificial intelligence and chips that have been singled out by Takaichi for targeted investment. But prospects for more government outlays have unsettled investors already concerned about Japan's debt burden, the largest in the developed world. Those worries came to a head on January 20, when rates across the JGB yield curve shot to multi-decade or even record highs after Takaichi called for the snap election and embraced suspending the sales tax on food. The yen has also been punished, losing about 6% against the dollar since Takaichi's selection as prime minister in October and plumbing record lows against the euro and Swiss franc. Only threats of joint currency market intervention with the United States have arrested the yen's slide. The currency reacted cautiously to the result, which analysts said was already somewhat priced in. It briefly touched a two-week low at around 157.95 per dollar in early Asia deals on Monday, before moving back up. The size of Takaichi's victory means "the Takaichi trade will revive, which means JGB yields will be under upward pressure," said Naoya Hasegawa, the chief bond strategist at Okasan Securities. "The move of the yen, stocks and bond yields will affect each other. If the yen falls rapidly, yields will tend to rise." While JGB yields remain elevated, some measure of calm has returned to the market in the past couple of weeks, as confidence grew that an emboldened Takaichi would keep her pledge of "responsible" stimulus. The past four debt auctions have seen resilient demand, and 30-year JGB yields have fallen 31.5 basis points since their record high of 3.88% on January 20. "We assume Takaichi will continue to strike a delicate balance between proactive fiscal policy and fiscal discipline," said Shigeto Nagai of Oxford Economics in Tokyo. "Although we think she's determined to make the best use of the fiscal space generated by inflation-boosted tax revenue, we also believe she seriously worries about a further rise in JGB yields," he added. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-markets-set-renewed-takaichi-trade-after-landslide-election-win-2026-02-08/

2026-02-08 12:16

WINDHOEK, Feb 8 (Reuters) - Namibia will not recognise the purchase of offshore stakes in the Luderitz Basin announced last week by TotalEnergies (TTEF.PA) , opens new tab and Petrobras (PETR3.SA) , opens new tab until the oil companies follow the proper route for approval, government officials said on Sunday. Jonas Mbambo, a spokesperson for the presidency, confirmed that until a formal application is submitted and the prescribed statutory process is completed, "no transaction can be recognised or considered valid". Sign up here. French oil major TotalEnergies and Brazil's Petrobras said on Friday they had each acquired a 42.5% stake in the PEL104 exploration licence offshore Namibia, as both firms look to develop oil in one of the world's last exploration frontiers. The acquisition, from Maravilla Oil and Gas and Eight Offshore Investments Holdings, marks an expansion of Total's holdings in the southern African country, where it hopes to be the first to produce oil by the end of the decade. MINISTRY CALLS FOR PRIOR APPROVAL In a statement on Sunday, the Ministry of Industries, Mines and Energy said it was not notified of the developments, as required by law, and was told about the planned announcement of the deal only "a few minutes" before its release. "The government makes it clear that in accordance with the law, any transfer, assignment, or acquisition of participating interests in petroleum licenses in Namibia must obtain prior approval of the minister," the statement said. TotalEnergies said the transaction remained subject to approvals from the Namibian authorities, including prior approval by the energy minister. Petrobras, which has partnered with TotalEnergies in oil assets in Brazil for more than a decade, also said the deal remained subject to local approval and would "proceed in accordance with Namibian law and regulatory requirements." NEW RULES FOR ENERGY SECTOR Members of the government's proposed Upstream Petroleum Unit did not respond, nor did the Petroleum Commissioner, Maggy Shino. Sunday's statement comes as Namibia, a global exploration hotspot, aims for its first oil production while introducing far-reaching regulatory changes affecting the energy sector. Besides new rules on local content, the recently installed energy minister, Modestus Amutse, introduced the Petroleum (Exploration and Production) Amendment Bill last week that will establish the Upstream Petroleum Unit as a new regulatory authority, in the office of the president. The bill, which was sent back in December after criticism by opposition parties, seeks to modernize the sector's legal framework, expand conflict-of-interest provisions for staff and strengthen fiscal transparency, among other measures. It also does away with the position of Petroleum Commissioner. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/namibias-energy-ministry-blasts-totalenergies-petrobras-not-following-procedure-2026-02-08/

2026-02-08 11:25

Robert-Luciani's fascination with weather began in childhood Career spans decades in mountain meteorology and elite skiing Rapid Update Cycles crucial for accurate race-day forecasts CORTINA D'AMPEZZO, Italy, Feb 8 (Reuters) - Sitting on a primary school bench in western France, Thierry Robert-Luciani would gaze at the clouds — not to daydream, but to decode them. Driven by his early fascination with weather and a family link to Italy’s Dolomites through his paternal grandfather, the Frenchman went on to study atmospheric physics before training as a forecaster and eventually settling in the mountains. Sign up here. Now 67, he serves as the meteorologist for the Alpine skiing events at the Milano-Cortina Olympics, a role shaped by decades spent reading the volatile skies above some of the sport’s most demanding slopes. “From a very young age, around eight or nine, I was fascinated by the weather without quite realising it,” Robert-Luciani told Reuters. “I sensed intuitively when showers were coming and constantly watched the clouds — not in a poetic way, but trying to understand what they were telling me in meteorological terms.” Born in Brittany and initially drawn to academic research, he was steered towards operational forecasting after mentors recognised his aptitude for prediction. That path led him to the Dolomites through an international training agency for forecasters and to an avalanche centre near Arabba, 1,600 metres above sea level in the heart of the Sella Ronda, where immersion in the high mountains refined his craft and instincts. “To apply meteorology in the mountains, you have to understand them,” he said. “Weather there is very changeable, very volatile. Living in that environment allows you to notice the signs and make better forecasts. “In the mountains, small-scale effects dominate,” he added. “Slope exposure, wind acceleration, thermal inversions — these are things global models don’t always resolve, so you have to interpret them locally.” UNEXPECTED OLYMPIC APPOINTMENT Robert-Luciani's connection with elite skiing dates back to the late 1990s, when he was first asked to produce forecasts for World Cup races in Cortina d’Ampezzo. Over nearly three decades, he has covered several men’s and women’s events each season, as well as world championships, a long trajectory that culminated in an unexpected Olympic appointment. “It’s a surprise, a little cherry on the cake,” he said. On race days, his contribution is brief but decisive. He delivers a short weather briefing to team captains, race organisers and the International Ski and Snowboard Federation’s race leadership before taking position on the slope to remain in direct contact should rapidly changing conditions require adjustments. “We’re talking two or three minutes,” he said. “You explain cloud cover, wind timing, snowfall intensity — and then you hope reality follows the forecast.” Sometimes it does not and Robert-Luciani said he needed to dig deep to get his groove back. "I try to send a positive message. It's important for the teams and the skiers, but also for me, to regain my confidence," he explained. If the conditions are not those he shared Robert-Luciani makes another assessment, using Synergie, an operational meteorological workstation developed by Meteo-France that integrates satellite imagery, numerical weather prediction data, observations and forecasting tools into a single interface. He then shares it with the race jury, who can decide whether the race is interrupted or cancelled. MONITORING FORECAST MODELS Preparation begins the previous evening with close monitoring of rapidly updating forecast models — known as Rapid Update Cycles — and continues before dawn. “At 6:30 in the morning, the first thing I do is check how the model has evolved — whether it’s stable or changing,” he said. “I integrate that information and then head straight to the finish area with the officials. “These rapid-update cycles allow us to detect last-minute shifts,” he added. “In alpine skiing, a temperature change of one degree or a wind rotation of a few degrees can affect snow behaviour and safety decisions.” In a sport where outcomes are measured in hundredths of a second and schedules hinge on shifting mountain skies, Robert-Luciani’s lifelong habit of studying clouds — formed on a classroom bench decades ago — now helps determine whether Olympic races in the Dolomites proceed as planned. https://www.reuters.com/sports/alpine-skiing-french-meteorologists-lifelong-cloud-watching-shapes-games-2026-02-08/

2026-02-08 04:57

Indian refiners not taking March–April Russian crude offers Trump says India committed to halting Russian oil imports New Delhi has not announced halt to Russian purchases Indian refiners cut Russian intake, buy from other suppliers NEW DELHI, Feb 8 (Reuters) - Indian refiners are avoiding Russian oil purchases for delivery in April and are expected to stay away from such trades for longer, refining and trade sources said, a move that could help New Delhi seal a trade pact with Washington. The U.S. and India moved closer to a trade pact on Friday, announcing a framework for a deal they hope to conclude by March that would lower tariffs and deepen economic cooperation. Sign up here. Indian Oil (IOC.NS) , opens new tab, Bharat Petroleum (BPCL.NS) , opens new tab and Reliance Industries (RELI.NS) , opens new tab are not accepting offers from traders for Russian oil loading in March and April, said a trader who approached the refiners. These refiners, however, had already scheduled some deliveries of Russian oil in March, refining sources said. Most other refiners have stopped buying Russian crude. TRUMP SAYS INDIA 'COMMITTED' TO HALTING PURCHASES The three refiners and the oil ministry did not respond to requests for comment. The trade minister on Saturday referred questions about Russian oil to the foreign ministry. A foreign ministry spokesperson said: "Diversifying our energy sourcing in keeping with objective market conditions and evolving international dynamics is at the core of our strategy" to ensure energy security for the world's most-populous nation. Although a U.S.-India statement on the trade framework did not mention Russian oil, President Donald Trump rescinded his 25% tariffs on Indian goods, imposed over Russian oil purchases, because, he said, New Delhi had "committed to stop directly or indirectly" importing Russian oil. New Delhi has not announced plans to halt Russian oil imports. India became the top buyer of discounted Russian seaborne crude after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, spurring a backlash from Western nations that had targeted Russia's energy sector with sanctions aimed at curtailing Moscow's revenue and making it harder to fund the war. INDIA'S RUSSIAN-OIL IMPORTS A FRACTION OF 2025 LEVELS One regular Indian buyer is Russia-backed private refiner Nayara, which relies solely on Russian oil for its 400,000-barrel-per-day refinery. Sources said Nayara may be allowed to keep buying Russian oil because other crude sellers pulled back after the European Union sanctioned the refiner in July. Nayara also does not plan to import Russian crude in April due to a month-long refinery maintenance shutdown, a source familiar with its operations said. Nayara did not respond to an email seeking comment. Indian refiners may change their plan and place orders for Russian oil only if advised by the government, sources said. Trump's order said U.S. officials would monitor and recommend reinstating the tariffs if India resumed oil procurement from Russia. Sources said last month that India was preparing to cut Russian oil imports below 1 million bpd by March, with volumes eventually falling to 500,000–600,000 bpd, compared with an average 1.7 million bpd last year. India's Russian oil imports topped 2 million bpd in mid-2025. The intake of Russian oil by India, the world's third-biggest oil consumer and importer, declined to its lowest level in two years in December, data from trade and industry sources show. Indian refiners have been buying more oil from Middle Eastern, African and South American countries as they scale back Russian oil purchases. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/indian-refiners-avoid-russian-oil-push-us-trade-deal-2026-02-08/