2025-10-23 11:57

LONDON, Oct 23 (Reuters) - Higher U.S. tariffs on imports are weighing on growth in Britain and are likely to lead to downward pressures on British inflation over the medium term, Bank of England policymaker Swati Dhingra said on Thursday. "In my view, the primary transmission channel of tariffs to the UK in 2025 come through weaker demand, as tariffs act as a drag on global growth," Dhingra said in a speech to a research conference hosted by Ireland's central bank. Sign up here. The disruption to trade from tariffs "means lower overall growth - and some downward pressure on prices in the medium term," she added. Dhingra - who has voted for a faster pace of BoE rate cuts - also said excessively high interest rates could cause longer-term inflation problems by limiting investment in new production capacity and improvements in productivity. On Saturday, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey told a meeting of financiers and policymakers in Washington that Brexit offered a warning to the world economy about the impact of trade barriers and was continuing to hurt the British economy. Dhingra cited research published earlier this year which showed that services sectors most exposed to Brexit barriers had seen a 16% fall in exports to the European Union, which were not made up elsewhere. "Brexit has demonstrated the corrosive effect of policy uncertainty on trade, productivity, and business investment," she said. Other research by economists pointed to British gross domestic product being 6%-8% lower, investment down 12%-18%, and employment and productivity down 3%-4% compared with staying in the EU, she added. The British government's Office for Budget Responsibility estimates that Brexit will reduce Britain's long-term level of productivity by 4% compared with remaining in the EU. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-tariffs-slow-uk-economy-lower-inflation-boes-dhingra-says-2025-10-23/

2025-10-23 11:56

Oct 23 (Reuters) - Union Pacific (UNP.N) , opens new tab beat Wall Street estimates for third-quarter profit on Thursday on the back of strong food grain and coal volumes, as well as better pricing. There is optimism around demand for coal transport, benefiting railroad operators such as Union Pacific, after U.S. President Donald Trump signed executive orders with an aim to boost coal production. Sign up here. Union Pacific said the results include merger costs of $41 million, or $0.07 per share, on a diluted basis. Shares of the company were down marginally in premarket trade. Union Pacific announced plans in July to acquire rival Norfolk Southern in an $85 billion deal aimed at creating the first coast-to-coast freight rail operator. U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs have resulted in softer consumer markets and a slowdown in freight, affecting railroads such as Union Pacific. The deal, still subject to regulatory clearance from the Surface Transportation Board, has drawn a positive response from U.S. President Donald Trump. The companies expect to file merger application with STB by the end of January next year. The North American railroad industry has struggled with volatile freight volumes, rising labor and fuel costs, and growing pressure from shippers over service reliability. Revenue from its bulk segment, which includes shipments of coal and food grains, grew 7% to $1.93 billion for the third quarter. Its intermodal shipments, which involves transporting goods via two or more means of transportation, generated revenue of $1.5 billion, down 3%. The West Coast railroad operator posted quarterly profit of$3.08 per share, compared with analysts' estimates of $2.99 per share, according to data compiled by LSEG. The company posted a total operating revenue of $6.24 billion, compared with estimates of $6.25 billion. https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/railroad-operator-union-pacifics-quarterly-profit-rises-2025-10-23/

2025-10-23 11:55

LONDON, Oct 23 (Reuters) - The pound steadied on Thursday having tumbled the day before after cooler-than-expected British inflation data caused traders to bring forward expectations on Bank of England rate cuts. Versus the dollar, sterling was last down 0.13% on the day at $1.3339 having dropped as low as $1.3307 on Wednesday in the aftermath of the data. Sign up here. British inflation unexpectedly held steady in September the Wednesday data showed, below both market and Bank of England expectations, causing forecasters to predict price rises have now peaked and will fall in the coming months. As a result, markets raised bets on Bank of England easing this year, and now see roughly a three in four chance the BoE cuts rates by 25 basis points by December, with a small chance it moves at its meeting next month. That also supported British government bonds, or gilts, yields on which dropped sharply on Wednesday before steadying on Thursday, but the 10-year gilt yield was still around 6 basis points below where it was before the data. All else being equal, currencies tend to reflect relative moves in government bond yields, but sterling has fallen less after the inflation data that the fall in the gilt yield would imply. "There are a few cross currents with the pound, as lower rates make the Chancellor's life much easier," said Nick Rees, head of macro research at Monex Europe. British finance minister Rachel Reeves will announce her latest budget next month, and is expected to have to include some combination of tax rises and spending cuts. Britain's elevated borrowing costs have not helped the situation and so lower gilt yields can be supportive of the pound. Nonetheless Rees says he expects further sterling weakness from here as the budget may not be well received. He said it was harder to assess when that weakness might materialise. In terms of euro/sterling, "we need to see some of the risk premium around French politics come out of the euro," he said. Sterling was also steadier on the euro on Thursday. The euro was last at 86.88 pence having been as high as 87.11 pence the day before in the aftermath of the data. https://www.reuters.com/business/sterling-steadies-after-soft-inflation-driven-fall-2025-10-23/

2025-10-23 11:52

TOKYO, Oct 23 (Reuters) - Japan's nuclear power industry wants greater support for new reactor building, including via state-run capacity auctions, under the government of newly elected pro-nuclear Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, a lobby head said on Thursday. Just 14 of the 54 nuclear plants operating in Japan before the 2011 Fukushima disaster have been brought back online, and Takaichi has said reviving nuclear power is key to Japan's energy security. Sign up here. However, much of Japan's nuclear focus has been on restarting shuttered reactors - the government recently extended operating lifetimes from 40 to 60 years - with just one new plant currently on the drawing board. Hideki Masui, president of the Japan Atomic Industrial Forum (JAIF), said more support for building new reactors, a process that takes two decades in Japan, should be made available through the long-term decarbonised capacity auction (LTDA) scheme to develop new power generation. "We should include a scheme into the LTDA which allows some kind of a fund recovery even during construction from an early stage," Masui told Reuters. There are no safety regulations for next-generation reactors, and operators are asking for regulatory predictability while they also seek "support for financing", Masui said. In July, Kansai Electric Power (9503.T) , opens new tab, Japan's top nuclear power operator, announced surveys to build a new reactor in western Japan, the first concrete step towards building a reactor since Fukushima. Japan aims to have nuclear power accounting for 20% of its electricity mix in 2040, from less than 10% now, with power demand from data centres reversing years of decline. Another four idled reactors have been given initial restart permits by authorities, while eight more are undergoing safety checks and a further 10 could apply for restarts, Masui said. "Theoretically, I think Japan can achieve its nuclear goal of 20% in 2040 with more than 30 reactors operating," Masui said. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/japan-nuclear-sector-seeks-greater-support-new-reactor-builds-lobby-head-says-2025-10-23/

2025-10-23 11:51

Mideast benchmark Dubai premium more than doubled to 3-week high Similar jumps seen in Oman, Murban premiums China, India to buy more oil from Iraq, West Africa, Brazil SINGAPORE, Oct 23 (Reuters) - Spot premiums in crude markets jumped on Thursday on expectations that U.S. sanctions on top Russian producers will spur China and India's demand for supplies from the Middle East, Africa and South America, trade sources and analysts said. Washington hit major suppliers Rosneft (ROSN.MM) , opens new tab and Lukoil (LKOH.MM) , opens new tab with sanctions over the Ukraine war, sparking concerns over tighter supply of oil from Russia, the top supplier to China and India. Global oil benchmark Brent futures rose by more than 4% on Thursday. Sign up here. Indian refiners and some Chinese companies, buyers in the world's top importers, are set to curtail Russian oil imports to comply with the new sanctions, sources said, turning to other countries for alternative supply. That sparked a jump in spot premiums for key Middle Eastern benchmarks on Thursday after slumping earlier this month on ample supply as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies are increasing output. Cash Dubai's premium settled at a three-week high of $2.71 per barrel, more than double the $1.26 per barrel of the previous session, Reuters data showed. It hit a 22-month low on October 2. Spot premiums for other benchmark grades GME Oman and IFAD Murban also jumped to one-month highs at $3.12 and $2.86 a barrel, respectively, the data showed. Privately-owned Reliance Industries (RELI.NS) , opens new tab will stop importing oil under a long-term deal to buy nearly 500,000 barrels per day of crude from Russian oil major Rosneft, two sources with direct knowledge of the matter said on Thursday. Indian state refiners including Indian Oil Corp (IOC.NS) , opens new tab, Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL.NS) , opens new tab and Hindustan Petroleum Corp (HPCL.NS) , opens new tab are also reviewing their Russian oil trade documents to ensure no supply will be coming directly from Rosneft and Lukoil after the U.S. sanctioned the oil companies, a source with direct knowledge of the matter said. In recent days, Reliance has purchased spot crude cargoes from Brazil and the Middle East, including Qatari al-Shaheen and Land grades, Iraqi Basra Medium, which could be used to partly replace Russian supplies, traders said. It was seen in the market on Thursday scouting for supplies, said a Middle Eastern trader approached by Reliance. "We expect most substitute crudes will be sourced from the Middle East. The urgent need for sour barrels should enable the current Basra overhang to clear faster than we previously anticipated," said Richard Jones, a crude analyst at Energy Aspects. "Today’s rally in Dubai has left Brent-Dubai swap-swap trading deeper in negative territory, supporting Atlantic basin arbs to Asia." Brent's premium to Dubai quotes was at 1 cent a barrel on Thursday, having turned negative since the start of this week, LSEG data showed. A narrowing of the price gap makes Brent-linked grades from the Atlantic Basin more attractive for buyers in Asia. Rosneft and Lukoil were also sanctioned by Britain last week. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/spot-crude-premiums-jump-us-sanctions-russian-producers-drive-china-india-demand-2025-10-23/

2025-10-23 11:41

Oct 23 (Reuters) - JP Morgan analysts on Thursday maintained a bullish outlook on gold, forecasting prices could reach an average of $5,055 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026. The forecast is based on "demand assumptions that see investor demand and central bank buying averaging around 566 tons a quarter in 2026," the bank said in a note. Sign up here. "Gold remains our highest conviction long for the year, and we see further upside as the market enters a Fed rate-cutting cycle," Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Strategy at JP Morgan, said. The combination of a "Fed cutting cycle with overlays of stagflation anxiety, concerns around Fed independence, and broader debasement hedging" supports gold's upside, Gregory Shearer, Head of Base & Precious Metals Strategy said. On the dollar, the bank noted that the rally is "not a de-dollarization or not a debasement story, but it is most likely a dollar diversification story," highlighting that foreign holders of U.S. assets are gradually redirecting small allocations into gold. JP Morgan analysts also highlighted that recent market consolidation is healthy. The pullback reflects the market digesting the rapid price gains since August, said Kaneva. "It's normal if you're paralyzed with fear, because the price moved so fast ... It's just a very clean story - you have a lot of buyers, and you have no sellers," she said. She reiterated a long-term target of $6,000/oz by 2028, stressing that gold should be viewed on a multi-year horizon. Spot gold has achieved several record highs this year, with the latest peak of $4,381.21 hit on Monday, marking a significant year-to-date gain of nearly 57% and setting the stage for its strongest annual performance since 1979. https://www.reuters.com/business/jp-morgan-sees-gold-averaging-5055oz-by-late-2026-2025-10-23/