2025-10-21 14:34

Demand for renewables is increasing, EBRD president says Kambar-Ata 1 is one of largest projects in the region Bank could extend three loans of $500 million each LONDON, Oct 21 (Reuters) - The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development could lend up to $1.5 billion for a Central Asian hydropower plant, its president told Reuters, adding that demand for renewables is rising despite some opposition to funding green energy. The Kambar-Ata 1 project is one of the largest renewables projects in Central Asia, and its combined 1,860  megawatts of capacity is expected to provide power and boost agriculture output across Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Sign up here. Alongside the European Union, the European Investment Bank and the governments of the three countries, the bank has already signed a 900-million-euro ($1.05 billion) memorandum of understanding for the project, which is located in Kyrgyzstan. EBRD President Odile Renaud-Basso said the bank is considering a total of three sovereign loans of up to $500 million each, subject to further discussions with other stakeholders and EBRD board approvals. DEMAND FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY INVESTMENTS GROWING More broadly, she said interest in renewables, battery storage and grids that can connect to green power is rising across the lender's countries of operation as the technologies' costs fall. "We see ... a sort of ramping up of demand in renewable investment in grids in order to be able to connect more renewables," Renaud-Basso told Reuters in an interview on Monday. EBRD funds mostly private-sector projects across emerging economies in Europe and Africa as well as Jordan and Lebanon. The bank has kept the green energy transition and a focus on expanding human capital, including support for women in business, as core priorities despite the hostility of the United States under President Donald Trump toward such projects. Renaud-Basso said borrowers understood the advantages of those initiatives. "They see that as an economic opportunity to diversify ... diversifying energy supply, reduce pollution, have a cheaper source of energy, be able to export energy, and so forth," she said. ($1 = 0.8575 euros) https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/ebrd-could-lend-up-15-billion-central-asia-hydro-plant-2025-10-21/

2025-10-21 14:20

BENGALURU, Oct 21 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve will lower its key interest rate by 25 basis points next week and again in December, according to a Reuters poll of economists who remain deeply divided on where rates will be by the end of next year. A month ago, economists had expected just one more cut this year. But the new forecast follows a recent shift in expectations by Fed policymakers toward additional reductions. Sign up here. Caught between the dual risks of already-elevated inflation climbing higher due to tariffs and a further weakening of the labor market, the Fed appears to have prioritized the latter, prompting it to cut rates by 25 basis points last month for the first time since December. All but two economists, 115 of 117, predicted the Fed would lower the interest rate again by a quarter point to 3.75%-4.00% on October 29. Two expected a 25 bps cut in October and a 50 bps cut in December. That majority falls to 71% for another cut in December. The poll was conducted on October 15-21. Financial market traders are more convinced, and have fully priced in two more reductions this year to interest rate futures contracts. Many Federal Open Market Committee members, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, have suggested they will keep focusing on the job market. However, a government shutdown that so far has lasted three weeks has delayed key official data on employment as well as inflation, blurring the economic outlook. "It would be fair to say approximately half of the current FOMC is more focused on the labor market and the other half on inflation risks," said Ryan Wang, U.S. economist at HSBC. "The difficulty for the Fed is whether this job slowdown mainly reflects bigger labor demand versus labor supply. It's harder to be very precise about which factor is the bigger one, and that does have implications for how monetary policy should react to it." Recent private-sector data indicate both layoffs and hiring are modest, suggesting no major change to the job market. Poll medians predict the unemployment rate will average around the current 4.3% each year through 2027, largely unchanged from last month. Inflation, which the Fed targets at 2% on the personal consumption expenditures measure, was expected to average above 2% each year through 2027, according to the latest poll. Delayed official data due on October 24 are expected to show consumer inflation rose to 3.1% last month from 2.9% in August. Economists were split seven ways on where rates would be by the end of next year, ranging between 2.25%-2.50% and 3.75%-4.00%. The increased uncertainty is partly as a result of speculation on who will be the next Fed chair after Powell's term ends in May. A 76% majority of economists, 25 of 33, who answered a separate question said the bigger risk to Fed rate policy by the end of this cycle was that it would take rates too low. President Donald Trump has been pressuring Powell to cut rates aggressively for months. "The risk is we have more rate cuts next year," said Brett Ryan, senior U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank. "The risk of the Fed losing its independence is elevated relative to any prior administration." (Other stories from the Reuters global economic poll) https://www.reuters.com/business/us-fed-trim-rates-twice-more-this-year-2026-rate-path-very-unclear-2025-10-21/

2025-10-21 12:45

Rare earths disruption of 10% could cut global output by $150 billion Light rare earths could be future targets for curbs China expanded rare earths export controls on October 9 Oct 21 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs flagged mounting risks to global supply chains of rare earths and other critical minerals, emphasising China's dominance in mining and refining, and outlining challenges for nations seeking to build independent supply chains. China expanded export curbs on rare earths on October 9, adding five new elements and extra scrutiny for semiconductor users ahead of an expected summit of leaders Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. Sign up here. CHINA'S SUPPLY CHAIN LEVERAGE In a note on Monday, Goldman Sachs said China controls 69% of global rare earth mining, 92% of refining, and 98% of magnet manufacturing. Rare earth elements (REEs) have become a flashpoint in geopolitics, as they are critical to high-tech industries and essential in uses from batteries to computer chips, artificial intelligence, and defence equipment. While the rare earth market was valued at $6 billion last year, just a fraction the size of the copper market, which is 33 times bigger, the bank warned that a disruption of 10% in industries reliant on REEs could result in $150 billion in lost economic output, besides inflationary pressures fed by the shortages. MINERALS COULD FACE EXPORT CURBS Goldman Sachs flagged samarium, graphite, lutetium, and terbium as particularly vulnerable to export curbs. Samarium, used in heat-resistant samarium-cobalt magnets, is key for aerospace and defense. Disruptions in supply of widely-used lutetium and terbium also pose risks of GDP losses. The bank highlighted light rare earths, such as cerium and lanthanum, as future targets for curbs, since China has a dominant role in refining and mining. Western producers like Lynas Rare Earths (LYC.AX) , opens new tab and Solvay could ease shortages, it added, but reliance on China remains substantial. CHALLENGES TO INDEPENDENT SUPPLY CHAINS Countries are scrambling to build independent REE and magnet supply chains, but Goldman Sachs saw barriers from geological scarcity to technological complexity and environmental challenges. It said heavy rare earth elements were particularly scarce outside China and Myanmar, with most known deposits being small, lower-grade, or radioactive, while developing new mines requires eight to 10 years. Refining REEs requires advanced expertise and infrastructure, with builds typically taking five years, the bank said. Additionally, magnet production outside China, though expanding in the U.S., Japan, and Germany, faces constraints because of China's control of critical inputs such as samarium. INVESTMENT AND COMMODITY RISKS Goldman Sachs suggested equities as a way for investors to manage rare earth disruption risks, citing Iluka Resources (ILU.AX) , opens new tab, Lynas Rare Earths (LYC.AX) , opens new tab, and MP Materials Corp (MP.N) , opens new tab as key players. The bank forecast a deficit in supplies of Neodymium-Praseodymium Oxide (NdPrO), critical for making magnets, Beyond rare earths, Goldman Sachs warned that commodities such as cobalt, oil, and natural gas faced rising risks of supply disruptions due to geopolitical tension. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/goldman-sachs-flags-risk-disruption-supply-rare-earths-key-minerals-2025-10-21/

2025-10-21 12:33

LISBON, Oct 21 (Reuters) - Portugal's Galp (GALP.LS) , opens new tab is in advanced talks with several oil majors to sell a 40% stake in its promising offshore Mopane field in Namibia and expects to choose a partner by the end of the year, Executive Board Member Nuno Bastos said on Tuesday. The Mopane field has estimated reserves of at least 10 billion barrels and Galp is seeking to sell half of its 80% stake to a company that would become its operator. Sign up here. "The interest is huge", Bastos said, adding that Galp wanted "a partner that accelerates the development of Mopane as fast as possible ... to get the first oil". LOOKING FOR OTHER OPPORTUNITIES AS WELL "It's critical to understand who is the best partner. There are talks with several major potential partners in Namibia, they are certainly advanced and we expect to have a partner by the end of the year," he told reporters, without naming any of the companies involved. The first oil from Mopane is not expected before 2031 or 2032, he said, and in the meantime Galp is also looking for new opportunities, particularly in Brazil, and Sao Tome and Principe. Galp's oil and gas production is concentrated in Brazil and it expects to produce on average 105,000-110,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day there in 2025 through a 70%-30% joint venture with China's Sinopec (600028.SS) , opens new tab, , which has stakes in several projects. The JV owns 20% of the Bacalhau field in the Santos Basin, which has recoverable reserves exceeding one billion barrels. Bacalhau last week began its first oil production through a floating production, storage, and offloading vessel with a capacity to pump up to 220,000 barrels per day. Bastos said Bacalhau would add 400 million euros ($466 million) of annual cash flow to Galp, "sustaining it over the next 15 to 20 years". ($1 = 0.8575 euros) https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/portugals-galp-advanced-talks-choose-partner-mopane-this-year-2025-10-21/

2025-10-21 12:29

Fire broke out at crude distillation unit overnight MOL says no sign of external tampering MOL assessing refinery damage caused by fire Will consider need to tap strategic stockpiles -MOL BUDAPEST, Oct 21 (Reuters) - Hungarian oil and gas company MOL (MOLB.BU) , opens new tab was gradually restarting units at its Danube refinery following a late Monday fire at one of the plant's crude units, the company said on Tuesday. By midday, the fire was contained and largely put out and there were no injuries, MOL said, with its executive saying there was no evidence of foul play. Sign up here. "We have seen no signs that any external tampering played a role in the outbreak of the fire," Krisztian Pulay, downstream production and development senior vice president at MOL told a news briefing, without elaborating on the cause of the fire. He also said the company had no estimate yet of how it could affect production and would begin assessing the damage in the next 24 hours. The refinery, which has a capacity of 165,000 barrels of crude oil daily, according to MOL's website, largely processes Russian crude delivered via the Druzhba pipeline. It effectively covers Hungary's domestic demand for oil products, International Energy Agency's data shows. The AV3 unit, which sustained the fire, processes over 40% of the refinery's crude intake according to LSEG data. MOL TO CONSIDER TAPPING STRATEGIC RESERVES Hungary's fuel supply was secured, and the company will focus on the domestic market in the immediate future and consider the use of strategic reserves if needed, MOL said in a separate statement on Tuesday. MOL's shares were down 1.5% at 1034 GMT. The fire could disrupt the refinery's production for months, said Tamas Pletser, a regional energy analyst at Erste Investment in Budapest, likely forcing MOL to increase fuel imports or temporarily use Hungary's strategic reserves. At the end of September, Hungary had enough crude and petroleum product reserves to cover 96 days, according to data on the Hungarian Hydrocarbon Stockpiling Association's website. The fire may also affect Hungary's fuel supply to Serbia. Budapest said earlier this month that MOL would increase deliveries to Serbia after the United States imposed sanctions on its Russian-owned NIS refinery. Prime Minister Viktor Orban said that he had discussed the fire with MOL's leadership. "We will investigate the circumstances of the fire at the Szazhalombatta oil refinery with the utmost rigour," Orban wrote in a post on Facebook. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/mol-says-restarting-units-danube-refinery-not-affected-by-fire-probe-ongoing-2025-10-21/

2025-10-21 12:24

Rebels looted 500 kg of gold from Congo's Twangiza Mining since May Miner to petition international arbitration bodies M23 rebels seized the mine in May DAKAR, Oct 21 (Reuters) - Rebels occupying Twangiza Mining's gold concession in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) have looted at least 500 kilograms of bullion since May, the company told Reuters, accusing some of its own employees of aiding the theft. At current prices, the looted gold is worth around $70 million. Sign up here. The mine is located in South Kivu province, where Rwandan-backed M23 rebels staged a lightning offensive this year that allowed them to seize more territory than ever before. They seized the mine in May. "With the help of some employees, they transported the first batch of more than 50 kg of gold out in a very short time," Twangiza Mining said on Monday in a written response to Reuters' queries about losses since M23 seized the mine. "Since the occupation, they have obtained at least 500kg of gold and secretly transported it through underground channels," the company said. M23 did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Twangiza Mining, which is headquartered in Congo and describes itself as a Chinese firm, said it lost over 100 kg of gold a month since the takeover, in addition to $5 million worth of equipment and materials. The company is preparing to file a formal complaint with international arbitration and Congolese authorities, and has declared force majeure, it said. It accused the rebels of expelling residents, demolishing churches and using Rwandan technicians to extract geological data to resume and expand mining. "There are more than 150 workers left on site. We cannot get in touch with them," the company said. The Rwandan government did not immediately respond to a request for comment. A drone strike on October 15 destroyed power generation infrastructure at the mine. It is not clear who was responsible for the drone strike. Fighting in eastern Congo has killed thousands of people and displaced hundreds of thousands this year. Armed groups have seized several mining sites in the mineral-rich eastern Congo, according to U.N. investigators. A U.N. Security Council briefing last year said M23 rebels were earning around $300,000 monthly from mineral taxes in the coltan-rich Rubaya region. U.S. President Donald Trump brokered a peace deal between Congo and Rwanda in June as part of an effort to stabilise eastern Congo and bring in Western mining investments. Rwanda has consistently denied backing M23 rebels, despite repeated allegations from U.N. experts and regional governments. Qatar has been hosting direct talks between Congo and M23. The two sides missed an August deadline for a peace deal as part of that process but on October 14, they agreed to a monitoring mechanism for an eventual ceasefire. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/m23-rebels-loot-70-million-worth-gold-congo-mine-since-may-company-says-2025-10-21/