2025-10-20 15:33

CAIRO, Oct 20 (Reuters) - Egypt's economy is forecast to grow 4.6% in the fiscal year to next June as inflation and interest rates continue to fall and a weaker currency boosts exports, a Reuters poll showed on Monday. Growth in gross domestic product is projected to accelerate to 4.9% the following year and to 5.3% in 2027/28, according to the median estimate of 16 economists surveyed October 6-20. Sign up here. Growth slumped to 2.4% in 2023/24, but rebounded after March 2024, when Egypt sharply devalued its currency and raised interest rates as part of an $8 billion financial support package with the International Monetary Fund. The currency devaluation led to a surge in tourism and remittances from Egyptians working abroad. The economy was also boosted in February 2024 by a $35 billion real estate investment by Abu Dhabi at Ras El Hekma on Egypt's Mediterranean coast. This month the central bank said growth accelerated to 5.0% in the second quarter of 2025 from a year earlier, from 4.8% in the first quarter. Capital Economics said lower inflation and a looser monetary policy were boosting growth. "Egypt's economy is shifting into a higher gear as improved external competitiveness aids exports and the domestic manufacturing sector," it said in a note last month. The poll forecast average inflation, which has declined from a record high of 38.0% in September 2023, would drop to 12.3% in 2025/26, 10.2% in 2026/27 and 7.5% in 2027/28. Egypt's annual inflation slowed to 11.7% in September from 12.0% in August. Last week the government raised prices on a wide range of petroleum products by 10.5% to 12.9% as it tries to reduce its subsidy bill and ease its budget deficit. Interest rates are also predicted to ease, the poll found. The Central Bank of Egypt's overnight lending rate, now at 22.0%, is forecast to decline to 16.00% by the end of next June, 13.00% the following year and 11.25% in June 2028. The central bank has cut its benchmark rate four times this year for a cumulative drop of 625 basis points. Analysts expect the Egyptian pound to weaken to 49.85 to the dollar by the end of June 2026 from its current 47.50 pounds. It will further weaken to 52.00 as of the end of June 2027 and 54.00 at the end of June 2028, they predicted. (Other stories from the Reuters global economic poll) https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/egypts-economy-seen-growing-46-202526-inflation-eases-2025-10-20/

2025-10-20 14:53

Oct 20 (Reuters) - The Reserve Bank of India sold a net of $7.7 billion in the spot foreign exchange market in August, data released on Monday showed, as the central bank looked to support the Indian rupee that fell 0.68% in the month. The RBI said in its monthly bulletin that it did not purchase any dollars and sold $7.7 billion. In July, the central bank had sold a net of $2.54 billion in the spot market. Sign up here. The Indian rupee fell 0.68% in August to 88.1950 against the U.S. dollar, breaching the 88-per-dollar mark for the first time. The RBI's net outstanding forward sales stood at $53.36 billion as of end-August, compared with a net sale of $57.85 billion at the end of the previous month, the data showed. The central bank intervenes in the spot and forward markets to curb exchange rate volatility. On Monday, the Indian rupee settled slightly higher versus the U.S. dollar at 87.9275, with the RBI likely back in the market through state-run banks, reinforcing support for the currency near the 88 per dollar level. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-cenbank-sold-net-77-billion-august-arrest-rupees-fall-bulletin-shows-2025-10-20/

2025-10-20 14:45

By Promit Mukherjee and David Ljunggren OTTAWA, Oct 20 (Reuters) - Canadian firms feel conditions are slightly better than earlier in the year but they are unlikely to boost investments or hiring given the dampening effect of U.S. tariffs, a Bank of Canada survey showed on Monday. Sign up here. The quarterly business outlook survey is closely watched by the BoC and economists to gauge what Canadian firms expect in terms of inflation, sales and hiring. Tariffs and trade tensions continue to weigh on the outlooks of many firms, the survey said, adding that while business sentiment had continued to improve from the lows seen in early 2025, it remained moderate. The business outlook indicator, a summary of business activity, prices and costs, and capacity, rose to -2.28 in the third quarter from -2.40 in the previous quarter. The survey, conducted between August 7 and September 3, noted firms did not expect sales growth to strengthen over the coming year as tariffs continue to scuttle demand. That said, the balance of opinion on future sales has improved marginally. The share of firms expecting a recession over the next year increased slightly to 33% from 28% in the second quarter. Concerns around a downturn were primarily responsible for offsetting the improvement in business sentiment, the BoC said. Firms will not invest additional capital for building capacity and many are putting new investments on hold while their hiring intentions remain subdued, the survey said, citing the impact of tariffs. The BoC issued the survey just days before it is due to announce its latest decision on rates and release quarterly economic projections. Money market bets show that is almost a 77% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut. One-year ahead inflation expectations are around 3% in the third quarter, almost similar to the previous quarter, but firms are widely reporting cost pressures. Businesses still expect their input prices to increase at a faster pace over the next 12 months compared with the past 12 months, it said, adding that wage growth over the next 12 months continued to trend lower. A separate survey by the central bank on consumer expectations showed 64.1% of Canadians expect a recession over the next 12 months, down from 64.4% in the second quarter. (Reuters Ottawa editorial) Keywords: CANADA CENBANK/ https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/bank-canada-says-firms-outlooks-remain-subdued-amid-trade-tensions-2025-10-20/

2025-10-20 13:05

(Reuters) - Sterling snapped a three-day winning streak against the dollar and fell versus the euro on Monday, as concerns over the British economy weighed on sentiment. Economists expect Wednesday's UK services inflation data to undershoot the Bank of England's projection, with a mild bearish impact on the pound. Sign up here. “That (inflation data) can modestly move the needle to the dovish side in the British swap curve and weigh on the pound this week,” ING forex strategist Francesco Pesole said. Sterling dropped 0.10% to $1.3427. It hit $1.3471 on Friday, its highest level in almost two weeks. The greenback edged up against the yen but was flat versus the euro on Monday as investors shifted their focus to political developments in Japan and the euro area, while lingering concerns about U.S. credit risks kept weighing on sentiment. Last week’s UK jobs data prompted some analysts to argue that ongoing disinflation and signs of labour market loosening could contribute to an erosion of sterling’s valuation relative to the euro. However, renewed concerns about a potential trade war between the U.S. and China weighed on the single currency and affected market expectations for the European Central Bank rate outlook, leading traders to almost fully price in an additional ECB easing move by next summer. The British currency dropped 0.10% versus the single currency to 86.85 pence. It was at 86.75 pence early last week. On Tuesday last week, after jobs data, the euro recorded its biggest daily rise against the pound in more than four weeks. Short-dated British government bond yields fell sharply as markets priced more chances of BoE rate cuts, weighing on the British currency Yields on 2-year gilts dropped 2.5 bps to 3.86%. They hit 3.81% last week, their lowest levels in 2-1/2 months on Friday. Gilt outperformance recently paused and will probably require further disinflationary momentum from this week's key economic data while investors await the November budget, analysts said. https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/sterling-snaps-3-day-rising-streak-versus-dollar-awaits-inflation-data-2025-10-20/

2025-10-20 12:24

BEIJING, Oct 20 (Reuters) - Chinese electric vehicle battery giant CATL (300750.SZ) , opens new tab saw net profit growth accelerate in the third quarter, even as it faced increased competition from smaller rivals. Net profit rose 41.2% to 18.5 billion yuan ($2.6 billion) in the July-September period from a year earlier, picking up from a 33.7% increase in the second quarter, according to a stock filing on Monday. Sign up here. Revenue rose 12.9% year on year to 104.2 billion yuan, up from a 8.3% gain in the second quarter. CATL still leads the pack in global EV battery usage, though its share fell to 36.8% in the first eight months from 37.7% in the year-ago period, according to SNE Research. By comparison, Chinese EV maker BYD (002594.SZ) , opens new tab, which also manufactures batteries in-house, took up 18% share of the global market versus 16.2% a year earlier, buoyed by an expansion in the European market. CATL, which supplies automakers including Tesla (TSLA.O) , opens new tab, Volkswagen (VOWG.DE) , opens new tab and Xiaomi (1810.HK) , opens new tab has also continued overseas expansion, with its new plant in Hungary expected to start production by early next year. However, Beijing issued new export controls on lithium battery parts that will require exporters to seek permits from November, casting uncertainty over CATL's future efforts to venture into overseas markets. ($1 = 7.1230 Chinese yuan renminbi) https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinese-battery-maker-catl-posts-faster-profit-growth-third-quarter-2025-10-20/

2025-10-20 12:23

Oct 20 (Reuters) - Egypt's Petrojet has been awarded a $1 billion preliminary contract to develop the second phase of the Hassi Bir Rekaiz oil field project in Algeria, Egypt's ministry of petroleum said on Monday. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/egypts-petrojet-given-1-billion-algerian-oil-project-contract-ministry-says-2025-10-20/