2025-10-17 19:54
BoC to restart single-point economic and inflation forecasts Money markets predict 64% chance of 25 basis point rate cut IMF enhancing surveillance of global financial imbalances OTTAWA, Oct 17 (Reuters) - The Bank of Canada will be putting more emphasis on potential risks when it decides what to do about interest rates later this month even as it tries to be more forward-looking, Governor Tiff Macklem said on Friday. "We will need to be humble about our forecasts, and we will continue to put a lot of emphasis on the risks," Macklem told reporters on a conference call from Washington. Sign up here. The central bank is due to release the rate decision and its latest economic forecasts on October 29 when it will also resume issuing forecasts for the economy and inflation, a practice it discontinued earlier this year citing heightened uncertainty due to a constant threat of tariffs. "We will be using a new base case projection to look forward against the background of heightened uncertainty ... I'm hoping we can be a bit more forward looking," Macklem said. He added that there was still a lot of uncertainty even though it lower than the levels seen in February and March. Money markets forecast that a roughly 64% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut later this month which will bring down the benchmark policy rate to 2.25%. The bank had cut rates last month by 25 basis points to 2.5%. Before the next rates decision, the BoC will have the benefit of a business and consumer survey which will give insights into inflation expectations, investments and spending. This survey is scheduled for Monday. It will also get the latest inflation report on Tuesday which will show where consumer prices were in September. The BoC expects GDP growth to resume after a contraction of 1.6% on an annualized basis in the second quarter, Macklem said, but he expects it to still be soft and below potential growth which will not be enough to close the output gap. Macklem was in Washington to participate in the meetings of the financial leaders of the G7 and meetings of the International Monetary Fund. He said the leaders at the IMF agreed global imbalances were widening again and could potentially heighten risks, worsen trade tensions and threaten financial stability. "I'm pleased that the IMF is enhancing surveillance of imbalances," he said. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/bank-canada-focus-more-risks-will-try-be-forward-looking-head-says-2025-10-17/
2025-10-17 19:54
OTTAWA, Oct 17 (Reuters) - The Bank of Canada will be putting more emphasis on the potential risks when it decides what to do about interest rates later this month, Governor Tiff Macklem said on Friday. "There is a lot of uncertainty, and we're going to have to be humble about our forecast," Macklem told reporters on a conference call from Washington. Sign up here. The central bank is due to release the rate decision and its latest economic forecasts on October 29. ((Reuters Ottawa editorial; [email protected] , opens new tab)) Keywords: CANADA CENBANK/ https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/bank-canada-focus-more-risks-ahead-rate-decision-says-head-2025-10-17/
2025-10-17 19:53
HOUSTON, Oct 17 (Reuters) - Venture Global (VG.N) , opens new tab has held talks with Ukraine to sell it additional cargoes of liquefied natural gas from its Plaquemines LNG plant in Louisiana as the winter approaches amid Russian attacks on its infrastructure, three people told Reuters. The talks for LNG from Plaquemines are taking place with Ukraine's DTEK, a major player in Ukraine's energy sector, according to two of the people. Ukraine's energy infrastructure has been degraded due to constant Russian attacks, and the country has had to boost gas imports as its own production falters. Sign up here. Venture Global CEO Michael Sabel was part of a delegation of U.S. energy leaders who met in Washington, D.C., on Thursday with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. The Ukrainian leader posted images of the meeting on X and said the country needed more power. Venture Global declined to comment on the talks and DTEK did not immediately respond to a request for comment. DTEK already has an agreement signed in 2024 to an undisclosed amount of LNG from the facility, in addition to two million metric tons per annum from CP2, Venture Global's third export hub that is currently under construction. Venture Global is the only U.S. LNG operator with significant spare capacity, as its 27.7 million metric tons per annum Plaquemines LNG plant is still in the commissioning phase that allows for spot market sales. The practice has drawn increased attention after an arbitration tribunal found last week that Venture Global breached an agreement with BP (BP.L) , opens new tab to declare timely commercial operations at its separate Calcasieu Pass plant in Louisiana and prioritize spot sales instead. Venture Global has said that the planned timeframe for full commercial operations at Plaquemines - which will result in the activation of longer-term contracts at cheaper prices - remains on track. Last month, the company exported 1.6 million tonnes of LNG from Plaquemines, or 17% of total U.S. LNG exports in September, according to preliminary data from financial firm LSEG. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/venture-global-held-talks-with-ukraine-provide-it-with-more-lng-sources-say-2025-10-17/
2025-10-17 19:49
Oct 17 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury bought Argentine pesos in the spot and "Blue Chip Swap" markets on Thursday and it continues to monitor all markets, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Friday. "Treasury is monitoring all markets, and we have the capacity to act with flexibility and with force to stabilize Argentina," he said in a post on X. Sign up here. It was the first announcement of participation in the "blue-chip" market, after Bessent previously spoke of buying pesos in the spot market. The pledged U.S. support also includes a $20 billion swap with the Argentine central bank and the workings of a $20 billion facility to invest in the South American country's sovereign debt. "We think the support from the U.S. Treasury is helping stabilize markets," said Nigel Chalk, deputy director of the Western Hemisphere Department at the International Monetary Fund in a press briefing. "IMF staff have spent many hours and have been very deeply engaged with both Argentina and the U.S. Treasury through this process," he added. He did not answer a question on whether the fund would rather see the peso, which trades in a band, float freely. The official peso weakened 3.4% on Friday to 1,450 per dollar, not far from the record low close of 1,474.50 hit before Bessent first announced the U.S. backing. Peso one-month nondeliverable forwards priced the currency at 1,446, after rising as high as 1,541 earlier this month. Three-month forwards see the peso near 1,690 per dollar, according to LSEG data. The U.S. Treasury has not disclosed how much it has spent purchasing pesos or whether it will do it on a schedule. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/bessent-says-us-bought-pesos-again-currency-dips-2025-10-17/
2025-10-17 19:36
US Treasury asks dealers on economic, monetary policy forecasts Dealers asked on forecasts of when Fed will grow balance sheet Treasury seeks more input on 20-year auction NEW YORK, Oct 17 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury said on Friday it had asked dealers when they expected the Federal Reserve would end its long-running scheme to reduce the size of its bond holdings, widely known as quantitative tightening, or QT. The survey is part of the Treasury's typical process ahead of its quarterly refunding announcement, which is due next month. Sign up here. The department also sought dealers' economic, fiscal and monetary policy forecasts, including their estimates for Treasury financing for fiscal years 2026 to 2028. The Treasury also wanted follow-up input on the U.S. 20-year bond auction schedule, which the department initially brought up in a May 2025 survey. In response to the May survey, the Treasury said primary dealers had argued that there could be "benefits to shortening the post-auction settlement period for the 20-year bond" to address persistently higher rates in the repurchase or repo market when these bonds are used as collateral for overnight borrowings. While the majority of primary dealers initially favored moving the settlement date closer to the auction date, one concern was the potential impact on holdings of the 20-year bond by the Fed. On the Fed's QT, the Treasury specifically asked dealers their forecast for when the Fed will cease redemptions of Treasury securities from the SOMA (System Open Market Account) portfolio held by the Fed that includes Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS). The Treasury also wants to find out whether dealers think the Fed will begin purchasing Treasury securities with proceeds from principal payments received on its MBS holdings. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday the end could be approaching for the QT. "Some signs have begun to emerge that liquidity conditions are gradually tightening, including a general firming of repo rates along with more noticeable but temporary pressures on selected dates," Powell said at a gathering held by the National Association for Business Economics in Philadelphia. The Treasury also asked dealers when they think the Fed would begin open market operations again to grow the size of its balance sheet, which is currently at $6.6 trillion. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-treasury-seeks-dealer-guidance-quantitative-tightening-20-year-auction-2025-10-17/
2025-10-17 18:46
WASHINGTON, Oct 17 (Reuters) - International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Friday she was hoping for an agreement between the U.S. and China that avoids a cutoff in the flow of rare earths to the global economy, adding that such restrictions would have a "material impact" on growth. Georgieva told a press conference during the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Washington that such a scenario would exacerbate uncertainty and hurt an already weakened global growth picture. Sign up here. "There is also still a sense of anxiety, because the performance of the world economy is less than we need it to be, and because there is a very dark cloud of uncertainty still holding lower our heads, and that uncertainty has become now the new normal." https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/imf-chief-hopes-us-china-rare-earths-deal-avoid-material-impact-global-economy-2025-10-17/
