2025-10-17 11:32

Oct 17 (Reuters) - HSBC on Friday forecast that gold's bull rally would drive prices as high as $5,000 an ounce in 2026, supported by elevated risks and the impact of new entrants into the market. Spot gold breached the $4,300 level on Thursday and was headed for its strongest week since December 2008. Sign up here. The advance has been fueled by geopolitical tensions, robust central bank buying, rising exchange-traded-fund inflows, expectations of U.S. rate cuts and tariff-related economic uncertainties. "The bull market is likely to continue to press prices higher for 1H’26 and we could very well reach a high of $5,000/oz some time in 1H 2026," HSBC said in a research note. HSBC also raised its 2025 average gold price forecast to $3,455 per ounce from $3,355 previously. It increased its 2026 average gold price forecast to $4,600, up from its previous estimate of $3,950. The bank cited geopolitical risks, economic policy uncertainty and rising public debt as factors supporting the price. HSBC said that, given the sharp rise in prices during the second half of 2025 and heightened risks from new market entrants, it expects gold prices to remain elevated and potentially spike further through early 2026. But the bank also expects significant volatility and some price moderation in the second half of 2026. "Unlike previous rallies we believe many of these new buyers are likely stay in the gold space – even after the rally ends – not so much for appreciation necessarily as for gold’s diversification and ‘safe haven’ qualities," the bank said. HSBC joins analysts at the Bank of America and Societe Generale, who earlier in the week forecast that gold could reach $5,000 an ounce in 2026. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/hsbc-expects-golds-bull-wave-hit-5000oz-2026-2025-10-17/

2025-10-17 11:17

LONDON, Oct 17 - The United States, Singapore, Liberia and Saudi Arabia on Friday called on the U.N. shipping agency to postpone adoption of a carbon price on ships, as states failed to find consensus during talks in London this week. The U.S. and Saudi Arabia have strongly opposed a carbon price on shipping during talks at the International Maritime Organization agency, while the European Union has continued to support the idea. Sign up here. U.S. President Donald Trump called on IMO member states on Thursday to vote no, saying on his Truth Social platform that Washington would "not stand for this global green new scam tax on shipping and will not adhere to it in any way, shape or form". "This week's IMO meeting in London … appears to be on the verge of collapse," Jefferies analyst Omar Nokta wrote in an investor note on Friday. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/us-singapore-call-un-delay-carbon-shipping-price-vote-amid-splits-2025-10-17/

2025-10-17 11:09

PARIS, Oct 17 (Reuters) - The future of France's livestock farming is under threat as the highly contagious lumpy skin disease sweeps through cattle farms for the first time in Western Europe, the farm minister said Friday as more cases were reported near the Spanish border. Three outbreaks of the virus, which causes blisters and reduces milk production, have been found near the Spanish border this week. The disease does not pose a risk to humans but often leads to trade restrictions and severe economic losses. Sign up here. The rise in outbreaks prompted France to ban exports of French cattle for 15 days, French Agriculture Minister Annie Genevard said as she travelled in the eastern Jura region, where a first case was recently detected. "We are at a critical moment. It is essential we keep up our efforts to protect the French cattle herd," she said. "Let's rise to the challenge together, as we have since last June, because the future of French livestock farming is truly at stake." REBOUND IN OUTBREAKS France reported a sharp drop in outbreaks in late August after a mass vaccination campaign, but cases have picked up again this month, spreading in the east and now to the southwest. Cases have been found in three communes of the Pyrenees-Orientales in southwestern France - La Bastide, Oms, and Valmanya - this week, prompting a mandatory vaccination campaign in the surrounding area, the farm ministry said in a statement. The affected villages are close together and about 30 kilometers from the Spanish border. Local authorities earlier this week had mentioned only a single outbreak in the region. "We can imagine that there is a link with Spain but we are still investigating," Genevard told reporters. France is already battling the bluetongue virus affecting sheep and bovines that has spread across Europe. So are Italy and Spain, also hit by lumpy skin disease for the first time this year. https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/lumpy-skin-cases-french-cattle-spread-near-spanish-border-2025-10-17/

2025-10-17 10:55

LONDON, Oct 17 (Reuters) - Everything Mike Dolan and the ROI team are excited to read, watch and listen to over the weekend. From the Editor Sign up here. Hello Morning Bid readers! Global equities are being weighed down this morning by weakness in U.S. bank stocks. Concerns are mounting about looming credit risks, following negative announcements from two regional banks and recent auto bankruptcies. Meanwhile, gold remains on track for its best week in 17 years, rising above $4,300 per ounce early on Friday. ROI editor-at-large Mike Dolan asks whether gold’s epic rise may be the bubble investors should be worried about. The dollar index is moving in the opposite direction. The greenback is set to record its biggest weekly slump in almost three months, weighed down by expectations of more Federal Reserve easing. However, ROI markets columnist Jamie McGeever argues that the dollar bull case may be more compelling than you think. In global news, tensions between Washington DC and Beijing have been back in the headlines following a spat over export controls on rare earth minerals. ROI Asia Commodities Columnist Clyde Russell argues that China risks overplaying its hand with curbs on metals and minerals vital to the global energy transition. In energy markets, oil prices look set to fall for the week as the market continues to face forecasts of a supply glut in the coming year. However, ROI Energy Columnist Ron Bousso points out that uncertainty over the whereabouts of almost 1.5 million barrels per day of crude oil is throwing this projection into doubt. The oil market is also reacting to the surprise announcement that President Donald Trump and Russian President Valdimir Putin have agreed to hold another summit on the war in Ukraine, this time in Budapest. While a quick resolution to this multi-year conflict remains unlikely, the recent strikes by Ukraine and Russia on each other’s energy infrastructure may mark a new stage in the war. Ron Bousso argues that this should be a wakeup call to Europe about vulnerabilities in its own energy systems. On the renewables side, ROI Energy Transition Columnist Gavin Maguire highlighted seven potentially “magnificent” clean energy stocks that have been on a tear this year despite the Trump administration’s rollback of clean energy policies. As we head into the weekend, check out the ROI team’s recommendations for what you should read, listen to, and watch to stay informed and ready for the week ahead. I’d love to hear from you, so please reach out to me at [email protected] , opens new tab . , opens new tab This weekend, we're reading... CLYDE RUSSELL, ROI Asia Commodities and Energy Columnist: The choice between gold and digital assets is usually seen as binary: physical gold for those who want something tangible that's not fiat currency and Bitcoin for those who see digital assets as the future. However, the World Gold Council has just done a report on the future of digital gold , opens new tab, and while, the authors are obviously acting in the interests of their members, the piece does raise some interesting issues. MIKE DOLAN, ROI Financial Markets Editor-at-Large: A major OECD report this week examined how social connections – the frequency and quality of interactions between people – play a critical role in broader policy goals in health, financial well-being, employment, education and civic engagement. , opens new tab RON BOUSSO, ROI Energy Columnist: When it comes to energy, nothing is bigger than the sun – at least in our universe. So the idea that Chinese scientists are developing an artificial sun , opens new tab is quite fascinating. This article from the Chinese Academy of Sciences is worth a read. GAVIN MAGUIRE, ROI Global Energy Transition Columnist: The 10th edition of McKinsey's Global Energy Perspective contains wide-ranging deep dives into key factors expected to impact global energy markets over the coming years. , opens new tab ANDY HOME, ROI Metals Columnist: This fascinating Reuters analysis explains how critical mineral companies are stepping up their lobbying game in Washington, DC. We're listening to... JAMIE MCGEEVER, ROI Markets Columnist: Questions about the valuations of AI companies are hanging over the global economy, with the word “bubble” popping up ever more frequently. In the latest episode of Reuters Econ World, my colleague Mike Dolan and host Carmel Crimmins delve into this debate and consider whether bubbles are always a bad thing. And we're watching... ANNA SZYMANSKI, ROI Editor-in-Charge: Reuters World News is now a vodcast! Here's all the day's headlines in 10 minutes. , opens new tab Want to receive the Morning Bid in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for the newsletter here. You can find ROI on the Reuters website , opens new tab, and you can follow us on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X. , opens new tab Opinions expressed are those of the authors. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles , opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/global-markets-view-usa-2025-10-17/

2025-10-17 10:11

MUMBAI, Oct 17 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee logged its best week in four months, buoyed largely by the Reserve Bank of India’s forceful intervention in the foreign exchange market and, to a lesser extent, by improving sentiment around U.S.–India trade negotiations. The rupee settled at 87.9750 on Friday, up 0.8% for the week — its best performance since late June. The currency was among the top-performing Asian currencies this week. Sign up here. The currency, which had been under relentless pressure, saw a turnaround in sentiment midweek after RBI intervened heavily in both the spot and non-deliverable forward markets to prop it up. The central bank followed that with another round of dollar sales on Friday, reinforcing to market participants its commitment to support the rupee. The RBI's market actions and firmer Chinese yuan fixings underpinned the rupee’s rally, Goldman Sachs said in a note, adding that it expects the dollar/rupee pair to drift lower and trade within a 87–88 band, broadly in line with the August price action. The bank further cited improving trade sentiment a potential tailwind for the rupee, noting positive rhetoric from U.S. President Donald Trump, claiming that India had agreed to reduce oil imports from Russia, and that an Indian trade delegation is in Washington this week. Goldman said its bias would now be more towards owning put spreads on dollar/rupee, which is a bet that the rupee will strengthen. Bankers said that the RBI's aggressive action this week reflected an attempt to reset sentiment in the foreign exchange market after weeks of one-way positioning against the rupee. By stepping in early — before the spot market opened — the RBI is signalling that it was willing to act decisively to shape expectations rather than simply defend a particular level, they said. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/rupee-logs-best-week-four-months-after-central-bank-flexes-fx-muscle-2025-10-17/

2025-10-17 10:08

LONDON, Oct 17 (Reuters) - Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill said on Friday that interest rates will probably need to be cut more slowly because of stubborn inflation pressures still in the economy. Pill, who is one of the Monetary Policy Committee members who has been most vocal about inflation risks, said there were still signs that underlying price growth was too strong and high inflation expectations risked becoming embedded. Sign up here. "All this supports my view that the MPC should adopt, from this point forward, a more cautious pace in withdrawing monetary policy restriction so as to ensure continuation in disinflation towards the 2% target," Pill said in a speech to the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales. Pill voted against the BoE's most recent rate cut to 4% in August. The BoE is trying to gauge whether inflation pressures in Britain's economy are abating sufficiently for it to resume cutting borrowing costs. "While I would expect further cuts in Bank Rate over the coming year should the economic and inflation outlook evolve broadly as the MPC expects, it will continue to be important to guard against the risk of cutting rates either too far or too fast," Pill said in Friday's speech. "I continue to view a decision to keep Bank Rate on hold as a 'skip rather than a halt' in monetary policy normalisation. But the need to recognise the stubbornness of inflationary pressures is becoming more pressing." Governor Andrew Bailey said earlier this week that the latest round of labour market data backed his view that underlying inflation pressures were cooling. Investors recently brought forward their bets on when the BoE is likely to make its next rate cut which is now almost priced in fully for February. On Monday, before the labour market data, those bets had pointed to a move in April. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/bank-englands-pill-supports-more-cautious-pace-rate-cuts-2025-10-17/