2025-11-27 06:10
MUMBAI, Nov 27 (Reuters) - Indian regulators are in discussions to reassess stringent regulations governing exchange-traded currency derivatives, following appeals from exchanges and traders, three sources with direct knowledge of the matter said, in a potential effort to revive a market increasingly shifting offshore. The Reserve Bank of India in 2024 reiterated a rule that currency derivative positions on exchanges should be backed by underlying exposures. While the rule had existed before then, it had not been strictly enforced, leading to a surge in speculative trading. Sign up here. After the advisory, trading in the contracts -- used to hedge against foreign exchange risks and speculate on currency movements -- nosedived in India and rose overseas. The average daily turnover in currency futures dropped to $766.84 million in October 2025 from $3.7 billion in March 2024 on the National Stock Exchange of India. In contrast, turnover for dollar/rupee futures - the most actively traded - rose to $3.2 billion from $1.8 billion in March 2024 at Singapore's SGX. While a formal review has not been initiated, top leadership of RBI and the Securities and Exchange Board of India are talking about tweaking rules to facilitate reopening the market to individual and proprietary traders with appropriate guardrails, two of the three sources said. A final decision will rest with the central bank. SPECULATION - A NECESSARY EVIL? “The earlier stance was to frown upon speculative activity, this view is changing as speculation improves price discovery,” the first source said. The sources declined to be named as the discussions are private in nature. Emails to SEBI and RBI sent on Wednesday were not answered. The dwindling volumes confirm the RBI's concern that this was a speculators' market, the third source said. "However, the segment was not creating any huge issue for domestic currency management. RBI deals with far more volatility from other segments," this person said, adding that the central bank may reconsider the issue. In order to prevent a spurt in speculation, traders have recommended tighter position limits, the first source said. Before April 2024, investors could build positions of up to $100 million without evidence of underlying exposure. "A limit of $100 million allowed many individual participants to speculate on rupee, which was RBI’s main concern. Market participants have suggested to reduce the limit to address the central bank’s worry,” the second source said. ($1 = 89.2625 Indian rupees) https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indian-regulators-talks-review-curbs-currency-derivatives-sources-say-2025-11-27/
2025-11-27 05:54
PERTH, Nov 27 (Reuters) - Australia will need to sharply accelerate emissions reductions to meet its 2035 target, data from the government's top climate advisory body showed on Thursday. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/cop/australia-needs-speed-up-emissions-cuts-meet-2035-target-2025-11-27/
2025-11-27 05:53
Dollar on defensive before Thanksgiving, Fed December cut eyed Euro edges lower after hitting 1-1/2-week high Ukraine peace talks could hit Swiss franc Aussie gains on inflation data Nov 27 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar headed for its steepest weekly drop in four months on Thursday as investors bet on further monetary easing, amid pressure from President Donald Trump to cut rates. The yen edged 0.10% higher to 156.33 per dollar, helped by a hawkish turn in tone from Bank of Japan officials. Sign up here. U.S. markets are shut for Thanksgiving, leaving liquidity thin and amplifying trading moves. "That could be an attractive environment for Japanese authorities to intervene in dollar/yen," said Francesco Pesole, forex strategist at ING. "However, there may still be a preference to intervene after a dollar-negative data event, and the stall in the pair may have removed some sense of urgency," he added. RATE OUTLOOK WEIGHS ON DOLLAR The U.S. dollar index was up 0.05% at 99.58, having retreated from a six-month high hit a week ago to head for its largest weekly drop since July. It is currently down 0.60% on a weekly basis. Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, urged investors to review their currency allocations as the appeal of the U.S. dollar fades, recommending the euro and Australian dollar over the greenback. If White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett - an advocate for rate cuts - is appointed the next Federal Reserve chair, it ought to be a negative catalyst for the dollar, investors said. Views on the dollar’s outlook remain divided. "We've gone through a period where rate differentials and euro growth expectations clearly benefited Europe over the U.S.," said Themos Fiotakis, global head of forex strategy at Barclays. "Looking ahead, some of those assumptions are being challenged. The euro’s expensiveness is one reason, but the robustness and resilience of the U.S. economy is another," he added. EURO, SWISS FRANC AFFECTED BY UKRAINE PEACE TALKS The euro dropped 0.05% to $1.1596, after hitting a 1 1/2-week high earlier in the session at $1.1613. Markets are watching negotiations over a possible Ukraine peace deal, which could lift the single currency. President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that the outlines of a draft peace plan discussed by the United States and Ukraine could become the basis of future agreements to end the conflict in Ukraine but that if not then Russia would continue to fight. An agreement would instead weigh on the Swiss franc given its role as a geopolitical safe haven, but analysts say there is little sign of a 'peace dividend' yet as uncertainty remains high. The dollar hit a one-week low against the Swiss franc at 0.8028, and was last up 0.16% at 0.8056. AUSSIE AND KIWI ON THE RISE A resurgent New Zealand dollar skipped out to a three-week peak of $0.5728 and has gained about 2% since a hawkish shift at the central bank a day earlier. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut rates on Wednesday but said a hold was discussed and flagged that the easing cycle was likely over. Helped by some strong economic data on Thursday, markets see rates rising and price in a hike by December 2026. That contrasts with more than 90 basis points of cuts priced for the U.S. Federal Reserve between now and the end of next year. The Australian dollar has also been gaining after a hotter-than-expected inflation reading on Wednesday added to the case that the easing cycle there is also finished. Australia's rates are the highest in the G10, which analysts said makes the currency look cheap. At $0.6536 the Aussie is in the middle of a channel where it has traded for about 18 months. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/dollar-retreats-kiwi-leaps-rate-direction-diverges-2025-11-27/
2025-11-27 05:50
MUMBAI, Nov 27 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee ended little changed on Thursday, as pressure spurred by outflows related to corporate debt repayments and routine importer hedging demand was capped by intermittent dollar sales by state-run banks. The rupee closed at 89.3050 against the U.S. dollar, down marginally from its close at 89.27 in the previous session. Sign up here. The rupee has stabilised after touching a record low of 89.49 last week, but traders and analysts say depreciation risks remain amid weak trade and portfolio flows and uncertainty around U.S.-India trade talks. India's benchmark equity indexes, BSE Sensex (.BSESN) , opens new tab and Nifty 50 (.NSEI) , opens new tab, hit record highs on Thursday, but foreign investors have been net sellers of Indian stocks in November and so far this year. Importer dollar demand and aversion to taking long positions on the rupee unless there are concrete developments on a U.S.-India trade deal are likely to keep weighing on the rupee, a trader at a private bank said. Asian currencies, meanwhile, traded mixed. The dollar index drifted higher to 99.69 but was set for its worst weekly decline in four months as investors held on firmly to wagers that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month. Expectations were bolstered by dovish remarks by Fed policy makers earlier this week alongside benign U.S. economic data. The odds of a 25 basis-point rate cut are currently at 85%, up from nearly 40% last week, per CME's FedWatch tool. "We believe this week’s dollar correction has more to do with a convergence towards lower rates following the dovish Fed's repricing, rather than any geopolitically-driven rotation away from safe havens," analysts at ING said in a note. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/rupee-eyes-higher-opening-fed-rate-cut-bets-though-staying-power-likely-limited-2025-11-27/
2025-11-27 05:35
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom Westbrook As markets settled in for the U.S. Thanksgiving lull on Thursday, the dollar was drifting towards its largest weekly decline in at least four months and traders' thoughts were turning to 2026. Sign up here. It seems the rest of the world is finishing up with interest rate cuts just as the U.S. eyes further easing. South Korea was the latest to join the hawkish turn, dropping its easing bias and sending bonds tumbling. One-time Bank of Japan dove Asahi Noguchi also struck a mildly hawkish tone, advocating gradual hikes in a speech at Kyushu that followed a similar line to other BOJ policymakers. A day earlier, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand effectively called time on its cutting cycle and the kiwi was still gaining on Thursday. It is up nearly 2% since the policy meeting. European Central Bank minutes are due later on Thursday from October's meeting where policymakers left rates on hold. Confidence data is due in Europe and commodity markets are watching for progress to a Ukraine peace deal. Russia has ruled out any big concessions following the leak of a call between a senior Kremlin aide and U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff. Markets still have about 90 basis points of U.S. rate cuts priced in between now and the end of 2026 - against 75 bps of hikes in Japan and 40 in New Zealand. The U.S. dollar index is down about 1% from a six-month high hit last week. To be sure, rates are much lower in New Zealand and Japan than they are in the U.S., but currency markets are forward-looking and the direction of travel can drive exchange rates as investors look for the best yield. Traders have been chatting about the Aussie as a potential breakout. After a hotter-than-expected inflation print on Wednesday, Australian 3-year and 10-year rates are the highest in the G10. Yet the Aussie is trundling along in a channel it's held for 18 months. Perhaps a lurch higher in the yuan, which it tracks closely, can unshackle the currency. Stock and bond markets are closed in the U.S. and trade for a half-day on Friday. Key developments that could influence markets on Thursday: -U.S. Thanksgiving holiday -Euro zone consumer confidence, ECB minutes https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-view-europe-2025-11-27/
2025-11-27 04:51
Markets pricing in possibility of Russia-Ukraine peace plan Trading thin with US holiday OPEC+ set to keep output unchanged at Sunday meet, sources say NEW YORK/LONDON, Nov 27 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Thursday as market participants weighed the likelihood that talks to end the war in Ukraine will yield an agreement, with trading volume thin due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S. Brent crude futures settled up 21 cents, or 0.2%, at $63.34 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 45 cents, or 0.8%, at $59.10 a barrel by 1:46 p.m. ET (1846 GMT). Sign up here. The market is swinging between hope and skepticism over renewed peace efforts in Ukraine, SEB commodities analyst Ole Hvalbye said. U.S. and Ukrainian delegations are to meet this week to work out a formula discussed at talks in Geneva to bring peace and provide security guarantees for Kyiv, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said. The two sides have been trying to narrow gaps over President Donald Trump's plan to end Europe's deadliest conflict since World War Two. Kyiv remains wary of accepting a deal largely on Russian terms, including territorial concessions. Russian President Vladimir Putin said the outlines of a draft peace plan discussed by the U.S. and Ukraine could become the basis of agreements to end the war. Putin also said that once Ukrainian troops withdraw from key areas, the fighting will stop, but Russia will achieve its objectives by force if that does not happen. "Geopolitical volatility continues and hopes of a potential ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine have neutralized the supply concerns arising from new U.S. sanctions on key Russian producers," Barclays said in a note. Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies are likely to leave oil output levels unchanged at their meetings on Sunday and to agree on a mechanism to assess members' maximum output capacity, two delegates from the group and a source familiar with OPEC+ talks told Reuters. Eight OPEC+ countries, which have been gradually raising production in 2025, are expected to keep their policy to pause hikes in the first quarter of 2026 unchanged, the two delegates said. Crude prices were also supported by rising expectations for a U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December. A lower rate typically stimulates economic growth and bolsters demand for oil. "We are now approaching the year-end with thinner liquidity without any new drivers unless the Fed surprises the markets with a hawkish guidance on the 10 December FOMC meeting," said OANDA senior market analyst Kelvin Wong. "WTI crude is likely to be range-bound between US$56.80 and US$60.40 till year-end," he said. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-drop-expectations-ceasefire-ukraine-unlocking-russian-supply-2025-11-27/
