2025-10-14 11:33

FTSE 100 down 0.44%, FTSE 250 down 0.6% BP flags weaker oil trading while upstream output grows Homebuilders index climbs on government's planning reforms Bellway gains on higher FY results, launches share buyback Oct 14 (Reuters) - London stocks fell on Tuesday, led by declines in miners, as investors fretted over the economic fallout from mounting U.S.-China trade tensions. The blue-chip FTSE 100 (.FTSE) , opens new tab was down 0.44%, as of 1055 GMT, and domestically focused FTSE 250 (.FTMC) , opens new tab fell 0.6%. Sign up here. Both indexes rose on Monday after U.S. President Trump struck a more conciliatory tone, posting that "it will all be fine" and that the U.S. had no intention to "hurt" China. However, both countries on Tuesday began charging additional tit-for-tat port fees on ocean shipping firms that move everything from holiday toys to crude oil. Industrial metal miners (.FTNMX551020) , opens new tab shed 2.1%, tracking weaker copper prices. Anglo American (AAL.L) , opens new tab, Glencore (GLEN.L) , opens new tab and Rio Tinto (RIO.L) , opens new tab were among the biggest losers on the FTSE 100, falling between 1.8% and 3.2%. Energy heavyweight BP (BP.L) , opens new tab dropped nearly 2% after flagging weak oil trading performance. Aerospace & defence sub-index (.FTNMX502010) , opens new tab fell 1.9%, heading for the fourth consecutive session of losses. Data showed on Tuesday, growth in average British earnings slowed slightly in the three months to August, suggesting the Bank of England may be able to continue cutting interest rates, albeit very gradually. BoE officials held interest rates at 4% last month and continue to monitor inflationary pressures, including wage growth. Meanwhile, investors are fully pricing in the next rate cut only by April 2026, according to LSEG data. The British homebuilders index (.FTNMX402020) , opens new tab gained 1.8% after the government unveiled planning reforms aimed at speeding up housing construction. Bellway (BWY.L) , opens new tab rose 5.9% after it raised its dividend and announced a 150-million-pound ($199.20 million) share buyback after beating annual pretax profit expectations. Peers Persimmon (PSN.L) , opens new tab and Berkeley (BKGH.L) , opens new tab rose 2% and 1.9, respectively. EasyJet (EZJ.L) , opens new tab climbed 4.7% after media reports of the budget airliner's possible acquisition by global shipping company Mediterranean Shipping. Mitie (MTO.L) , opens new tab gained the most on the FTSE 250, up 8.6%, after the outsourcer resumed buy-back with share repurchase programme and hiking profit forecasts. https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/miners-drag-london-stocks-lower-us-china-trade-tensions-sap-sentiment-2025-10-14/

2025-10-14 11:05

Oct 14 (Reuters) - Rayonier (RYN.N) , opens new tab and PotlatchDeltic (PCH.O) , opens new tab said on Tuesday they will merge in an all-stock deal valued at about $8.2 billion, including debt, to create one of North America's largest publicly traded timber and wood products companies. The merger comes as lumber markets remain volatile, whipsawed by shifting tariffs and a weak construction outlook. Sign up here. The combined company will own about 4.2 million acres of timberland across 11 U.S. states and operate seven wood manufacturing plants, providing it scale in a year when prices have swung sharply due to a cooling housing sector. President Donald Trump's new tariff on imported softwood lumber and production cuts at North American sawmills have lifted prices recently. The new company, which will be renamed after the merger completes, will operate seven wood products manufacturing facilities, including six lumber mills with total capacity of 1.2 billion board feet and one industrial plywood mill. Under the deal, PotlatchDeltic shareholders will receive 1.7339 common shares of Rayonier, representing an implied price of $44.11 per PotlatchDeltic share. This values PotlatchDeltic at $3.41 billion, according to Reuters calculation. Shares of Rayonier were down 1.2%, while those of PotlatchDeltic jumped 5% in pre-market trading. The per share value, also represents a premium of 8.25% to PotlatchDeltic's closing stock price on October 10, the last business day prior to execution of the deal, the companies said. Rayonier shareholders will own about 54% of the combined company and PotlatchDeltic holders the remaining 46%, upon closing of the deal expected in late first quarter or early second quarter of 2026. Rayonier Chief Executive Mark McHugh will lead the new company, while PotlatchDeltic CEO Eric Cremers will serve as executive chair for two years. The new firm's headquarters will be in Atlanta, with regional offices in Spokane, Washington, and Wildlight, Florida. https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/rayonier-potlatchdeltic-form-timber-products-giant-82-billion-merger-2025-10-14/

2025-10-14 11:05

LONDON, Oct 14 (Reuters) - (This Oct 14 column has been refiled to correct the spelling of 'build' in paragraph 14) China is once again rolling out the big cannon of curbs on metals and minerals vital to the global energy transition, as well as key components in weapons and electronics. Sign up here. There is little doubt that every time China places restrictions on exports, or threatens to do so, it causes much consternation among Western governments and companies, which have come to rely on China's dominance of the processing and production of refined metals. The latest instance is China's decision to expand export controls on rare earths, adding five new elements to existing restrictions that have resulted in tighter scrutiny on products such as critical minerals used to produce magnets. But there are also risks for China in this behaviour, as the cannon of export curbs can effectively only be fired once in anger. If China does eventually decide to cut off Western buyers from metals such as rare earths, lithium, cobalt, antimony, tungsten and others, it would cause massive disruption to Western supply chains. But it would also prompt a rapid build out of new supply and processing facilities across the Western world. The raw ores used to make many of these metals aren't necessarily rare or difficult to mine, and between them Western nations would have adequate supplies. The challenge would be to build refining capacity, but this could be accomplished quickly in the event of a genuine emergency created by China ending its supply to Western buyers. This would obviously come at a high cost, but Western governments would have no other option other than to stump up the cash as obtaining new sources of supply would trump any financial considerations. The ultimate risk for China is that in cutting off Western buyers from refined metals it would risk eventually destroying its own industry through massive overcapacity as Western buyers build out their own supply chains. China currently produces about 90% of refined rare earths, more than 90% of graphite, just under 80% of cobalt and nearly 70% of lithium. Its share of nickel is considerably less, but if its control of Indonesian nickel refining is added to what is produced in China, around 70% of refined nickel is under Chinese control. Copper is often cited as a critical mineral, but China only accounts for just under half of refined metal output, meaning the Western world could rely on sources of supply outside of Chinese control to meet its needs. POLITICS DRIVING The question for the market is why is China placing restrictions on the exports of critical minerals and metals, when ultimately doing so only encourages its current customers to build alternative supply chains? It would seem that the answer is largely political. China is engaged in a tricky trade war with U.S. President Donald Trump and both sides are making threats to use what leverage they have to try and improve their negotiating positions. The problem for Beijing is that the more it rolls out the big guns of export restrictions on critical minerals, the more it encourages the Western world to bite the bullet and build alternative supply chains. China doesn't even have to fire the cannon, the repeated threat of doing so will be enough to spark the necessary Western investment, especially in refining metals. As Trafigura Chief Executive Richard Holtum told the LME Week seminar in London on Monday, processing minerals is more important than mining them. "You do not have national security if you just have stuff in the ground," Holtum said. If his message is increasingly being heeded in Western capitals, it's likely that more cash will be ploughed into metals refining, as well as subsidies and incentives to keep existing refineries operating even though they can't compete with China at current prices. The end result of China's export restrictions is likely to be the development of a two-tier global system for refined critical metals, a more expensive but secure supply chain for Western consumers and a cheaper Chinese system that is subject to Beijing's political imperatives. Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), your essential new source for global financial commentary. ROI delivers thought-provoking, data-driven analysis of everything from swap rates to soybeans. Markets are moving faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X , opens new tab. The views expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-can-only-fire-big-gun-refined-metals-restrictions-once-2025-10-14/

2025-10-14 11:03

BEIJING, Oct 14 (Reuters) - A Chinese container ship has completed a pioneering journey through the Arctic to a UK port, state-run news agency Xinhua reported, cutting in half the usual transit time for the electric vehicles and solar panels aboard destined for Europe. The Istanbul Bridge's maiden voyage, originally expected to take 18 days, was delayed by two days due to a storm off the coast of Norway but the ship still reached Europe earlier than the 40 to 50 days it takes freighters going through the Suez Canal or around the Cape of Good Hope. Sign up here. The new Northern Sea Route, running entirely through Arctic waters and within Russia's exclusive economic zone, can now be navigated by ships due to global warming. China is exploring speedier maritime links with the European Union - the world's third-largest economy - while in the middle of a costly trade war with the United States, the world's biggest consumer market. The push reflects Beijing's need to diversify its export markets to sustain growth in an economy heavily dependent on selling its manufactured goods overseas. Exports to Europe rose an annual 14% in September, Chinese customs data shows, while shipments to the U.S. fell 27% over the same period. Over the past four decades, the Arctic has warmed about four times faster than the global average, resulting in a dramatic reduction in sea ice and creating seasonal windows for commercial shipping. But weather and sailing conditions along the Arctic passage can be unpredictable. Carrying around 4,000 containers from the Chinese port of Zhoushan, the Istanbul Bridge docked in Felixstowe, Britain's largest container port, on Monday and was scheduled to make stops in Germany, Poland and the Netherlands, Xinhua said. The ship is operated by Chinese-controlled container line Sea Legend, it said. The company did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment. In recent years Beijing has deepened maritime cooperation with Russia in Arctic waters, as China seeks an alternative shipping route to reduce its dependence on the Strait of Malacca in Southeast Asia. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/chinese-freighter-halves-eu-delivery-time-maiden-arctic-voyage-uk-2025-10-14/

2025-10-14 10:58

IEA expects global supply to rise by 3 million bpd in 2025 Trims demand growth forecast this year to 710,000 bpd Implied surplus to reach 4 million bpd in 2026 LONDON, Oct 14 (Reuters) - The world oil market faces an even bigger surplus next year of as much as 4 million barrels per day as OPEC+ producers and rivals lift output and demand remains sluggish, the International Energy Agency predicted on Tuesday. The latest outlook from the IEA, which advises industrialised countries, expands its prediction of a 2026 surplus from about 3.3 million bpd last month. A surplus of 4 million bpd would be equal to almost 4% of world demand, and is much larger than other analysts' predictions. Sign up here. OPEC+ is adding more crude to the market after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other allies decided to unwind some output cuts more rapidly than earlier scheduled. The extra supply is adding to fears of a glut and weighing on oil prices this year. IEA LIFTS OUTLOOK FOR SUPPLY, TRIMS DEMAND FORECAST In the IEA's view, supply is rising far faster than demand. This year, it expects supply to rise by 3.0 million bpd, up from 2.7 million bpd previously. Next year, supply will rise by a further 2.4 million bpd, it said. The agency on Tuesday also trimmed its forecast for world demand growth this year to 710,000 bpd, down 30,000 bpd from the previous forecast, citing a more challenging economic backdrop. "Oil use will remain subdued over the remainder of 2025 and in 2026, resulting in annual gains forecast at around 700,000 barrels per day in both years," the IEA said in a monthly report. "This is well below historical trend, as a harsher macro climate and transport electrification make for a sharp deceleration in oil consumption growth." IEA demand forecasts are at the lower end of the industry range, as the agency expects a faster transition to renewable energy sources than some other forecasters such as OPEC. On Monday OPEC maintained its forecast that demand will rise by 1.3 million bpd this year, almost double the rate expected by the IEA, and said the world economy was doing well. Oil prices declined on Tuesday, with Brent crude trading just below $62 a barrel. That was still up from a 2025 low of near $58 in April. GLUT LOOMS The IEA has been saying the world market looks oversupplied. Tuesday's report said global oil supply in September was up by 5.6 million bpd from a year ago, with OPEC+ accounting for 3.1 million bpd of the increase. In a sign of extra supply heading to the market, the IEA said the amount of oil currently seaborne in September rose by 102 million barrels, which it called the largest increase since the COVID-19 pandemic, partly due to surging Middle East production. As well as OPEC+, supply growth next year will also come from outside producers such as the U.S., Canada, Brazil and Guyana, the IEA said. The IEA's view on the potential surplus is larger than that of others. A Reuters poll of analysts in September suggested the market could face an oversupply of 1.6 million bpd in 2026. OPEC, in contrast, expects world oil supply to closely match demand next year, because it sees a much slower rate of expansion from outside OPEC+ as well as stronger demand. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iea-raises-2025-oil-supply-forecast-after-opec-output-hike-decision-2025-10-14/

2025-10-14 10:55

LONDON, Oct 14 (Reuters) - The global oil market will tighten in the medium to longer term, a range of oil industry executives said in London this week, maintaining optimism despite a near-term glut driven by rising output. Production decline rates, which could accelerate as prices fall, will help to rebalance the oil market as longer-term demand is supported by rising consumption from emerging economies, the executives said. Sign up here. The global oil market surplus will reach 3.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, compared with a 1.9 million bpd average so far this year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its monthly oil report on Tuesday. Rising production from both the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) and non-members has kept a ceiling on oil prices this year. Brent futures were trading around $62 a barrel on Tuesday morning, down more than $15 compared with the same day last year. MEDIUM TERM TIGHTNESS Oil production from producers outside of OPEC will start to decline if oil prices fall to $60 per barrel, TotalEnergies (TTEF.PA) , opens new tab CEO Patrick Pouyanne said on Tuesday. "Fundamentally, the short term market is a little bearish ... but we are quite bullish on the medium-term," Pouyanne said at the Energy Intelligence forum in London, citing production decline rates and no peak in global oil demand. On Monday at the same conference, ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods warned that decline rates could hit 15% per year without investment in unconventional oil and gas fields, and said that in his view oversupply will be a "short-term issue." "We see resilient demand, and the pressing need for long-term investments in supply," Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser added on Monday. "The key strategic question for companies like mine and others is, where is the conventional oil going to come from to satisfy the demand in the face of plateauing or peaking U.S. unconventional supply, as demand continues to grow," ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance said. Lance added that oil prices could recover to $70-75 a barrel, as in the mid-cycle supply will have to be generated to meet demand. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-executives-see-market-rebalancing-surplus-medium-term-2025-10-14/