2025-11-24 06:44

Delayed US retail sales report due on Tuesday Traders see 79% chance of US interest rate cut next month US and Ukraine continue talks to modify peace plan Nov 24 (Reuters) - Gold prices rose more than 1% on Monday, supported by growing expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next month and ahead of fresh U.S. economic data for further clues on the monetary policy. Spot gold gained 1.2% at $4,111.86 per ounce, by 01:43 p.m. EST (1843 GMT). U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled 0.4% higher at $4,094.2 per ounce. Sign up here. "The market is increasingly getting convinced that the U.S. Federal Reserve is on track to cut interest rates in December," said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategies at TD Securities. New York Fed President John Williams said on Friday that U.S. interest rates could fall "in the near term" without putting the Fed's inflation goal at risk, while helping guard against a slide in the job market. Bets of a rate cut next month stand at 79%, the CME FedWatch tool , opens new tab showed on Monday. Gold, a non-yielding asset, tends to do well in low-interest-rate environments, and during geopolitical and economic instability. "We're waiting for data and the expectation is that it may be somewhat weaker. Inflation probably not very elevated and that all points to gold doing fairly well," Melek added. Investors are looking out for key economic data that were delayed due to the government shutdown, including U.S. retail sales, jobless claims and producer price figures due later this week. Meanwhile, the U.S. and Ukraine continued talks on Monday to craft an acceptable plan to end Russia's war in Ukraine, after agreeing to revise an earlier U.S. proposal that many viewed as overly favorable to Moscow. "With the Fed debate taking more headlines and geopolitical swings, especially vis-à-vis Ukraine, (gold) is still likely to catch a bid but in our view, it remains range bound between $4,000 and $4,100," Rhona O'Connell, an analyst at StoneX, said in a note. Spot silver added 1.7% to $50.84 per ounce, platinum rose 2.3% to $1,545.91, while palladium gained 1.7% to $1,398.21. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-dips-dollar-firms-investors-weigh-us-rate-cut-bets-2025-11-24/

2025-11-24 06:31

Markets price in greater than 80% chance of Fed rate cut Stocks rally while dollar slips Eyes on sliding yen for possible intervention NEW YORK, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Global stocks advanced for a second straight session on Monday as rising expectations for a December rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve helped to soothe recent concerns about stretched valuations in the AI space while longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields dipped. Stocks stumbled last week to their largest weekly percentage drop since early August on market pessimism over the chances of a cut to interest rates, the economic impact of the extended U.S. government shutdown and lingering concerns over high valuations for AI-related companies. Sign up here. But equities rallied at the end of the trading week after New York Fed President John Williams said interest rates can fall in the near term even as other policymakers insisted borrowing costs should remain steady for now. Williams' comments were echoed on Monday by Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who said that available data indicates that the U.S. job market remains weak enough to warrant another quarter-point cut to interest rates. "It's a market that probably got a bit oversold in the short term, and the level of pessimism was rising," said Brian Levitt, chief global market strategist for Invesco. "The economic data is just not robust, and the market is certainly not expecting a recession, but a weaker backdrop is supportive of a reduction in the fed funds rate." U.S. markets will be closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday. Markets are pricing in an 85.1% chance of a cut of 25 basis points at the December meeting, according to CME's FedWatch Tool , opens new tab, up from 42.4% a week ago. Expectations for a rate cut increased further during the session after San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly told the Wall Street Journal she supports lowering interest rates at the central bank's meeting next month as she sees a deterioration in the job market. Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius said in a note on Sunday that he expects another cut from the Fed in December, followed by two more moves in March and June of 2026 "that take the funds rate to 3-3.25%." On Wall Street, U.S. stocks closed higher, led by a surge of nearly 4% in the communication services sector (.SPLRCL) , opens new tab as Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL.O) , opens new tab jumped more than 6%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) , opens new tab rose 202.86 points, or 0.44%, to 46,448.27, the S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab gained 102.09 points, or 1.55%, to 6,705.08 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) , opens new tab shot up 598.92 points, or 2.69%, to 22,872.01. The gains for the Nasdaq marked its biggest daily percentage rise since May 12. European equities closed higher on interest rate expectations while investors were also encouraged by signs of progress toward a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) , opens new tab rose 11.57 points or 1.19% and was on track for the biggest daily percentage gain since November 10. The pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) , opens new tab index, meanwhile, ended the session up 0.14% after gaining as much as 0.71%. U.S. retail sales and producer prices data will also be in focus this week as the release of government data resumes after the end of the extended government shutdown. In Britain, British finance minister Rachel Reeves' eagerly awaited budget is due on Wednesday. The U.S. and Ukraine were continuing work on a plan to end the war in Ukraine after agreeing to modify an earlier proposal that was viewed by Kyiv and its European allies as too favourable to Moscow. That weighed on oil prices because a deal could release more Russian oil supply through an easing of sanctions. U.S. Treasury yields were lower on the interest rate expectations. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes fell 2.7 basis points to 4.036%. A $69 billion auction in two-year notes was solid, with above-average demand of 2.68 times the notes on sale. In currencies, the dollar index , which measures the dollar against a basket of currencies, shed 0.07% to 100.18, with the euro up 0.1% at $1.1522. Sterling strengthened 0.11% to $1.3106. Markets were also watching for signs of possible Japanese intervention in the yen, which weakened 0.28% against the greenback to 156.82 per dollar. The Japanese currency is down 1.8% against the dollar this month. Takuji Aida, an adviser to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, said on Sunday that Japan can actively intervene in the currency market to mitigate the negative economic impact of a weak yen. U.S. crude rose 1.34% to settle at $58.84 a barrel and Brent settled at $63.37 per barrel, up 1.29% on the day due to the rising rate cut expectations and mounting doubts about whether Russia will obtain a peace deal with Ukraine. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-pix-2025-11-24/

2025-11-24 06:25

US officials Lutnick and Greer set for Brussels talks EU ministers gather ahead of that meeting Trade Commissioner Sefcovic expects no immediate breakthrough BRUSSELS, Nov 24 (Reuters) - European Union ministers on Monday were set to urge top U.S. trade officials to apply more of the July EU-U.S. trade deal by cutting U.S. tariffs on EU steel and removing them from EU goods such as wine and spirits. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer were due to meet EU ministers responsible for trade for 90 minutes over lunch in their first trips to Brussels since taking office. Sign up here. Ahead of that meeting, the European ministers gathered to discuss pressing trade issues, including Chinese rare earth and chip export restrictions. NO IMMEDIATE BREAKTHROUGHS EXPECTED European Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic said he did not expect any immediate breakthroughs with his U.S. counterparts. "I think today it's not about negotiations. It's about a stock-taking exercise. And I think this is also about the political assessment of EU-U.S. bilateral relations," he said. Under the end-July deal, the United States set 15% tariffs on most EU goods, while the European Union agreed to remove many of its duties on U.S. imports. That may only happen in March or April, given it requires approval from the European Parliament and EU governments, which EU diplomats say has exasperated Washington. But while insisting the process is on course, the 27-nation bloc is also pointing to agreed items on which it wants to see progress, chief among them steel and aluminium. The United States has a 50% tariff on the metals and since mid-August has applied this to the metal content in 407 "derivative" products such as motorcycles and refrigerators. More derivatives may be added next month. RISK THAT JULY ACCORD GETS HOLLOWED OUT EU diplomats say that such actions, along with the prospect of new tariffs on trucks, critical minerals, planes and wind turbines, threaten to hollow out the July accord. "We're at a delicate moment," one EU diplomat said. "The U.S. is looking for reasons to criticise the EU as we are trying to get them to work on steel and other unresolved matters." The bloc also wants a broader range of its products subject only to low pre-Trump duties. Its wish list includes wine and spirits, olives, pasta, medical devices and biotech. The EU is also ready to discuss areas of possible regulatory cooperation, such as cars, the bloc's purchases of U.S. energy, which has hit $200 billion this year, and joint efforts on economic security, particularly in response to Chinese export controls. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/eu-urge-us-apply-more-july-trade-deal-including-cutting-steel-tariffs-2025-11-24/

2025-11-24 05:44

Oil prices rise amid US rate cut speculation and Ukraine peace deal uncertainty Fed Governor Waller suggests rate cut amid weak U.S. job market US sanctions on Russian oil firms affect market, peace talks dominate focus NEW YORK, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Oil prices climbed about 1% on Monday on increased bets of a U.S. interest rate cut in December and mounting doubts about whether Russia will get a peace deal with Ukraine that will boost Moscow's oil exports. Brent futures rose 81 cents, or 1.3%, to settle at $63.37 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 78 cents, or 1.3%, to settle at $58.84. Sign up here. On Friday, both crude benchmarks closed at their lowest levels since October 21. The U.S. and Ukraine sought to narrow the gaps in a peace plan to end the Russia-Ukraine war after a U.S. proposal that Kyiv and its European allies viewed as a Kremlin wish list. Recent price weakness was driven mainly by reported progress in Ukraine–Russia peace negotiations, analysts at energy advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note. "However, we feel that a reduction of more than 5% of risk premium is excessive," they added, pointing to the potential for the war to drag on, re-injecting geopolitical risk into oil futures. U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies Rosneft (ROSN.MM) , opens new tab and Lukoil (LKOH.MM) , opens new tab, which took effect on Friday, have caused friction that would normally boost prices, but the market is preoccupied by the peace talks, said Jorge Montepeque, managing director at Onyx Capital. Russian state oil and gas revenue could fall in November by around 35% year-on-year to 520 billion roubles ($6.59 billion), owing to cheaper oil and a stronger rouble, Reuters calculations showed on Monday. European Council President Antonio Costa hailed the "new momentum" in negotiations to end the war in Ukraine and pledged that the European Union will keep supporting Ukraine. U.S. INTEREST RATES U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said available data indicates that the U.S. job market remains weak enough to warrant another quarter-point cut. Lower rates could boost economic growth and oil demand. Global brokerages remain split on whether the Fed will cut interest rates at its December meeting after last week's mixed signals on job growth and unemployment. In Germany, business morale fell unexpectedly in November, a survey showed, as companies grew more pessimistic about chances of economic recovery. JPMorgan forecast Brent crude at $57 a barrel and WTI at $53 in 2027 while keeping its 2026 estimates unchanged at $58 and $54 respectively. AROUND THE WORLD The U.S. formally designated Venezuela's Cartel de los Soles as a foreign terrorist organization, layering additional terrorism-related sanctions on the group it has said includes President Nicolas Maduro and other high-ranking officials. U.S. sanctions on Venezuela, a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), help support oil prices by limiting the South American country's exports. Separately, U.S. President Donald Trump said he had a "very good" phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The leaders discussed the war in Ukraine, fentanyl trafficking and a deal for farmers. Energy traders see positive discussions between the world's two biggest economies as supportive of oil demand. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-falls-ukraine-peace-talks-edge-toward-solution-2025-11-24/

2025-11-24 05:34

MUMBAI, Nov 24 (Reuters) - The Reserve Bank of India stepped in aggressively on Monday to slow the downward pressure on the rupee that had built up after the local currency slipped past a key level on Friday and brought the psychological 90-mark into focus. The rupee was last trading at 89.16 per U.S. dollar, up 0.35% on the day. Sign up here. Before the 9 a.m. IST open, the interbank order-matching system had pointed to a drop past 89.50 to a new all-time low. However, that changed once the RBI stepped in. The central bank likely sold dollars on the order-matching platform and in the non-deliverable forward market, helping lift sentiment. On the back of that, the rupee opened at 89.15. The Indian currency had broken past 88.80 on Friday, a level bankers say the RBI had held for weeks, setting off a wave of pressure expected to carry through this week. Following Friday's slump, conversations turned to the risk of a swift push toward the 90 level, bankers said. The central bank's aggressive dollar sales on Monday were widely seen an effort to stop the rupee's move before it picked up pace. A senior treasury official at a private sector bank said the backdrop was "very heavy" for the rupee currently, noting that there was no catalyst yet to settle sentiment around the currency. The lack of progress on a U.S.-India trade agreement has further weighed on sentiment, traders said, depriving the market of a policy boost that could have helped offset India's widening trade deficit and the subdued pace of portfolio inflows. HDFC Bank echoed the cautious tone, saying any lift from a potential U.S.-India trade announcement could prove short-lived Meanwhile, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Thursday attributed , opens new tab the rupee's recent weakness to higher dollar demand, which he said could abate if India and the U.S. agree a trade deal. India's foreign reserves offer "ample protection" for the currency, he added. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indian-central-bank-likely-intervenes-prop-up-rupee-before-local-market-open-2025-11-24/

2025-11-24 05:31

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Rae Wee It's been a slow start to the week in Asia with Japanese markets closed for a holiday on Monday, but currency traders are watching with bated breath for any signs of official yen buying from Tokyo to stem its slide. Sign up here. The trading week will be interrupted by the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, followed by Black Friday which will see shortened hours, opening a possible window for authorities to step in. Past interventions haven taken place during periods of low liquidity, allowing the authorities to move prices more sharply, or, as analysts put it, get the most "bang for their buck". In such cases, the Ministry of Finance decides when to step in and the Bank of Japan acts as its agent. The yen fell slightly on Monday in line with the broader market, and last stood at 156.62 per dollar. It remained pinned near last week's 10-month trough of 157.90, though the yen appears to have found a floor after Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama ramped up verbal warnings of official yen buying on Friday. Japan can actively intervene in the currency market to mitigate the negative economic impact of a weak yen, Takuji Aida, a private-sector member of a key government panel, said in a television programme on public broadcaster NHK on Sunday. Elsewhere, stocks found much-needed reprieve after last week's beating, helped by comments from influential Federal Reserve policymaker John Williams who said on Friday that interest rates can fall "in the near term". That sent traders ramping up bets of further easing next month, with Fed funds futures now pointing to a 57% chance of a 25-basis-point cut. Still, with global equity markets in the midst of a grim month, attention will turn in the week ahead to holiday shopping trends and U.S. retail sales for signs of strength in consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. Over in Europe, focus will be on Britain's upcoming budget announcement, with Finance Minister Rachel Reeves seeking to reassure investors that the government can be trusted to be fiscally prudent while appeasing voters by honouring pre-election promises not to raise taxes on working people. Recent selling in bonds, sterling and bank shares shows markets on edge. The budget wait is almost over but UK market volatility is likely not. Key developments that could influence markets on Monday: - German Ifo business sentiment (November) - France: Reopening of 3-month, 6-month and 11-month government debt auctions - Germany: Reopening of 7-month government debt auction https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-view-europe-2025-11-24/