2025-11-24 05:05

Fed's Waller says December cut appropriate Fed's Daly also says she supports easing next month US rate cut odds at 80% for December meeting Yen intervention possible in holiday-thinned week NEW YORK, Nov 24 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar dipped on Monday, as investors weighed dovish remarks from Federal Reserve officials that boosted expectations for a rate cut next month and limited the greenback's upside against major currencies. The U.S. currency, however, rose against the yen, as investors remained on the lookout for signs of official buying from Tokyo to stem the slide in the Japanese currency. Sign up here. Volume was thinner than normal due to a holiday in Japan and a holiday-thinned week in the U.S. with the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. In afternoon trading, the euro rose 0.1% against the dollar to $1.1526, which put the dollar index down 0.1% at 100.15 . Against the Swiss franc, the dollar slid 0.1% to 0.8079 franc . The dollar slightly extended its fall after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Monday that available data showed the U.S. job market remains weak enough to warrant another quarter-point rate cut at the U.S. central bank's December 9-10 policy meeting. His remarks followed those of New York Fed President John Williams on Friday who said that the U.S. central bank can still cut interest rates "in the near term" without putting its inflation goal at risk. Following their comments, Fed fund futures have increased the chances of an interest rate cut of a quarter-point next month to 80%, from 30% before their remarks, according to the CME's FedWatch tool. Several regional Fed governors, however, argued for delaying further easing until there is clear evidence that inflation is on track to fall to the Fed's 2% target from a still-elevated level. "There's a bifurcation within the Fed right now -- those focusing on backward-looking data versus those that are forward-looking," said Eugene Epstein, head of trading and structured products at Moneycorp in New Jersey. "Certainly, interest rate fundamentals move currencies." He noted, though, that there were times that the dollar has not moved in line with expectations -- when the Fed is cutting rates, the dollar should be falling. Markets are also gearing up for potential catalysts, including the release of U.S. retail sales and producer prices data due later in the week. YEN WOES, STERLING FLAT The yen fell against the dollar, which rose 0.2% to 156.755 yen, just shy of its 10-month high hit last week of 157.90. . Japan's currency has been sliding on a combination of looser fiscal policies and some of the lowest interest rates in the world, prompting traders to ask whether Japanese authorities might step in to stop their currency weakening further. The yen, however, managed to gain some ground last Friday, bouncing from 10-month lows after Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama stepped up verbal intervention warnings to stem the currency's decline. Traders see a risk of intervention somewhere between 158 and 162 yen per dollar, with Thanksgiving-thinned trade on Thursday a possible window for authorities to step in. Japan can actively intervene in the currency market to mitigate the negative economic impact of a weak yen, Takuji Aida, a private-sector member of a key government panel, said in a television program on public broadcaster NHK on Sunday. "I think if Japan wanted to intervene, this would have been a good day to do it and would have caught the market by surprise with Japan on holiday," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global in New York. "The fact that they did not intervene today suggested that the bar is still high for intervention." In other currency pairs, sterling was marginally higher at $1.3108 against the dollar ahead of Wednesday's budget announcement. Finance minister Rachel Reeves is seeking a balance between spending to support faltering growth and demonstrating to investors that Britain can meet its fiscal targets. Cryptocurrency markets, meanwhile, steadied over the weekend. Bitcoin rose 0.6% to $88,495.19 , lifted by more Fed officials' easing remarks on Monday. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly reiterated her view that she supports a December rate cut, noting that she's not confident that the central bank can get ahead of a weak labor market. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/dollar-steady-thanksgiving-looms-yen-test-2025-11-24/

2025-11-24 04:56

MUMBAI, Nov 24 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee posted its biggest one-day gain in a month on Monday as central bank intervention helped it rebound from near its all-time low, even as traders expect the currency to tilt more towards depreciation in the near-term. The rupee ended at 89.23 against the U.S. dollar, up 0.3% from its close at 89.48 in the previous session. The currency has declined more than 4% so far in 2025 and hit an all-time low of 89.49 on Friday. Sign up here. While the central bank's presence blunted the immediate pressure on the currency, market participants anticipate a continuing downward bias for the rupee in the absence of a breakthrough in U.S.-India trade negotiations. The Reserve Bank of India likely intervened before the local spot market opened on Monday, and intermittently thereafter, helping the currency hold above its all-time low, traders said. "RBI may have thought it more prudent to conserve ammunition and intervene at higher levels in USD/INR instead of going all in at 88.80 itself," FX advisory firm IFA Global said in a note. The firm holds a mildly bearish outlook on the currency and expects it to hover in a 88-89.50 range over the next 6 weeks. The wait for a trade deal with the U.S. in the meantime has hurt trade and portfolio flows into India, exerting pressure on the currency even as the domestic economy remains resilient. India's GDP growth data for the July-September quarter is due on Friday. Elsewhere, the dollar index was down modestly at 100.1 while Asian currencies traded mixed. Currencies had a muted reaction to a bounce-back in wagers on a rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve next month and to peace plans related to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. "We think the combination of promising Ukraine peace talks and the Beige Book poses downside risks to the dollar this week," analysts at ING said in a note. The Fed's Beige Book contains a summary of business and labour conditions across the U.S. and will be in focus for cues on the central bank's interest rate path. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/rupee-likely-feel-after-effects-breakdown-asia-peers-compound-pressure-2025-11-24/

2025-11-24 03:14

Heavy flooding kills 8 in Thailand Malaysia issues red alert for heavy rain, 15,000 in shelters Vietnam puts initial damage at $493 million after floods, landslides Thailand's Hat Yai sees most single-day rainfall in 300 years BANGKOK/KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Flooding from days of intense rain has killed at least eight people in southern Thailand and forced thousands into evacuation centres in neighbouring Malaysia, officials said on Monday, as authorities ramped up efforts to provide shelter and aid. Floodwater waist-high in some areas has impacted 10 provinces in southern Thailand and eight states in Malaysia, regions spanning hundreds of kilometres that were last year also hard hit by flooding from a seasonal monsoon that killed at least 12 people. Sign up here. Thailand's southern trading hub Hat Yai on Friday suffered its heaviest single-day rainfall in more than 300 years, according to the irrigation department, with weekend television footage showing people wading through brown water in the teeming rain in commercial areas where shops and parked motorcycles were engulfed by water. Some residents were seen pulling children along in plastic boxes turned into makeshift boats, while in the city's outskirts, parked trucks and buses formed long lines along the few dry roads available as other vehicles inched slowly through water. HUNDREDS OF VEHICLES AND BOATS DEPLOYED The eight deaths in Thailand were caused mainly by electrocution and other flood-related accidents, according to authorities. Thailand has mobilised hundreds of boats and high-clearance vehicles to deliver aid, the disaster agency said, with at least 700,000 households impacted since last week. Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul ordered more water pumping machines to be deployed and said assistance must be adequate, comprehensive, and timely, according to a government statement. In neighbouring Malaysia, more than 15,000 people were in shelters, according to Social Welfare Department data, among 90 evacuation centres set up. No deaths have been reported so far in Malaysia. Its Deputy Prime Minister Ahmad Zahid Hamidi said civil defence teams were on standby and more than 90 land and water assets mobilised, including lorries, four-wheeled-drive vehicles and water-rescue equipment. "I pray and hope that this incident will not cause extensive damage and that all victims remain strong and patient," he said in an X post. CENTRAL VIETNAM FLOODS EASE AFTER KILLING 91 Water levels have started to recede in central Vietnam after weeklong flooding and landslides that killed 91 people and caused infrastructure damage that left 1.1 million households and businesses without power, the government said on Monday. Initial property damage was estimated at 13 trillion dong ($493 million), it said, adding that it has disbursed cash aid and 4,000 tons of rice to flood victims. More than 200,000 houses, 200,000 hectares (494,211 acres) of crops, and 1,157 hectares of fish farms were inundated in Vietnam. The floods submerged several coffee farms in the central highlands - an area highly prone to storms and flooding - hampering the harvest in the region. ($1 = 26,369.0000 dong) https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/malaysian-floods-affect-11000-people-across-seven-states-2025-11-24/

2025-11-24 01:59

China's crude imports from Indonesia far exceed Indonesia's total oil exports this year Iranian barrels are being relabelled as Indonesian oil - traders and analyst Ship-to-ship transfers continue in Malaysian waters - analyst Nov 21 (Reuters) - China is importing unusually large quantities of crude oil from Indonesia, a trend traders say is a way to mask shipments of sanctioned Iranian crude trans-shipped in waters off Malaysia amid greater scrutiny of cargoes originating from Malaysia. Declaring Iranian oil as Malaysian has long been a tactic of traders selling to China, the largest buyer of the U.S.-sanctioned crude, market participants say. Sign up here. China has officially not imported Iranian crude since 2022, but its customs data regularly shows more Malaysia-sourced oil than the Southeast Asian country actually produces. China's crude imports from Indonesia have risen from less than 100,000 metric tons in 2024 to 9.81 million tons, or 235,570 barrels per day, for the year through October, according to Chinese customs data on Thursday. However, Indonesian customs data shows just 1.7 million tons of crude exported between January and September. Of that, it says that only about 25,000 tons went to China. Meanwhile, China's imports from Malaysia, the largest trans-shipment hub for Iranian oil, have almost halved since July from this year's peak in March at 8.5 million tons. Malaysia's Marine Department and the Chinese and Indonesian customs authorities did not respond to Reuters requests for comment. Indonesia has emerged as an alternate declared origin this year due to greater scrutiny from banks about oil labelled as Malaysian, according to two traders with knowledge of the matter who spoke on condition of anonymity. "Some banks are rejecting documentations showing Malaysia as origin," said one of the traders. "With US‑Indonesia deals for energy supply and plans for 17 modular refineries in Indonesia, Indonesia may become a softer source than Malaysia. However, this sourcing can be changed on paper frequently if monitoring and enforcement is further increased," said Pankaj Srivastava, a senior vice president at Rystad Energy. The shift is also being driven by Malaysia announcing in July that it would more tightly enforce rules targeting illegal ship-to-ship (STS) transfers, where oil is shifted between tankers at sea to obscure its origin, according to consultancy Energy Aspects and a third trader. However despite the shift in labelling, Iranian oil was still being transferred between ships off the coast of Malaysia, traders said. "Most of the STS transfers of Iranian crude destined for China still take place off the coast of Malaysia," said Jianan Sun, analyst with Energy Aspects. According to analytics group Kpler, in the first ten months of this year, China imported more than 57 million tons, or 1.37 million bpd, of Iranian-origin or suspected Iranian-origin crude, with over 51 million tons moved via STS. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/surging-chinese-imports-indonesia-oil-point-to-rebranded-iranian-crude-traders-2025-11-21/

2025-11-24 01:32

MUMBAI, Nov 24 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is likely to face further depreciation pressure this week, with traders eyeing a move toward 90 per U.S. dollar in the absence of firm central bank intervention, while bond yields will track liquidity movements and local growth data. The rupee slumped to a record low of 89.49 per dollar on Friday, down 0.8% for the week. Sign up here. A bout of portfolio outflows, uncertainty over a U.S.-India trade deal, and a pullback in the central bank's defense of a key level sparked the slide in the rupee, traders said. The move "caught the market on the wrong side" and the pressure is expected to persist next week, a trader at a large private bank said. The rupee has declined 4.5% over 2025, consistently lagging its regional peers this year, even as India's economic fundamentals remain resilient and the stock market hovers near all-time peaks. A hit to trade and portfolio flows, sparked by U.S. tariffs, has exerted pressure on the rupee, traders and analysts said, noting that the conclusion of a trade deal could help the currency rebound. "Going forward, we expect the rupee to settle in a new 88.80-90.00 range. We have maintained that the rupee will deliberate in a gradual, staircase-like manner," said Abhishek Goenka, CEO at forex advisory firm IFA Global. The dollar index gained last week, even as markets reloaded wagers that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates next month after dovish remarks from New York Fed President John Williams. In India, the 10-year benchmark 6.33% 2035 bond yield settled at 6.5665% on Friday. Traders expect the yield to stay between 6.52% and 6.60% this week, with the focus on the Reserve Bank of India's liquidity moves as well as growth data. The RBI net bought bonds worth 148.10 billion rupees ($1.65 billion) in the week ended November 14, after purchasing bonds worth 124.70 billion rupees in the previous week, its first such buy in almost six months. However, the purchases were frontloaded, leading to market speculation that the buying was just replacement demand instead of a yield signal. Meanwhile, the RBI's monetary policy decision is due on December 5 amid uncertainty over whether the central bank will cut rates or maintain the status quo. "We expect the RBI to deliver a 25-bp repo rate cut in the December policy. Based on our forecast of FY27 growth, inflation, and real rates, a simple Taylor Rule formula indicates that the terminal repo rate should fall to 5.25%," Deutsche Bank Chief India Economist Kaushik Das said. Deutsche Bank expects India's GDP to have grown 7.7% in the July-September quarter, largely in line with the 7.8% expansion in April-June. KEY EVENTS: India ** October fiscal deficit - November 28 , Friday (3:30 p.m. IST) ** October industrial output - November 28, Friday (4:00 p.m. IST) ** July-September GDP growth data - November 28, Friday (4:00 p.m. IST)(Reuters poll - 7.1%) U.S. ** October PPI manufacturing - November 25, Tuesday (7:00 p.m. IST) ** October retail sales - November 25, Tuesday (7:00 p.m. IST) ** November consumer confidence - November 25, Tuesday (8:30 p.m. IST) ** September durable goods - November 26, Wednesday (7:00 p.m. IST) ** Initial weekly jobless claims for week to November 17 - November 26, Wednesday (7:00 p.m. IST) ** September new homes sales units - November 26, Wednesday (8:30 p.m. IST) ($1 = 89.5800 Indian rupees) https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indian-rupee-risk-steeper-losses-bonds-react-liquidity-growth-data-2025-11-24/

2025-11-24 00:54

China's premier met German chancellor on G20 sidelines World's second- and third-largest economies seek closer ties Li Qiang proposed closer collaboration in strategic industries US President Trump's tariffs squeezing both economies BEIJING, Nov 24 (Reuters) - China pitched stronger ties in its highest‑level talks with Germany's new government as Beijing's top European trade partner seeks to smooth tensions over rare-earth curbs that have choked German production lines and prompted calls for de-risking. Beijing has staged an uncharacteristically swift turnaround in relations with Berlin since discord over Chinese export curbs on chips and rare earths resulted in German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul cancelling an October trip to China. Sign up here. "China and Germany are important economic and trade partners," China's Premier Li Qiang told German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on the sidelines of the G20 summit on Sunday, state media reported. "Our two governments should work together to strengthen dialogue and communication to properly address their respective concerns," a Xinhua readout quoted China's second-ranking official as saying, before pitching closer cooperation in a series of strategic industries. A meeting between the two had appeared unlikely only months earlier, but with both countries embroiled in the fallout from the U.S.-China trade war and searching for ways to diversify from the world's top consumer market, those differences have been set aside. Merz is expected to visit China soon, where he should meet Chinese President Xi Jinping, while top diplomat Wadephul agreed with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi earlier this month to reschedule his trip to the Chinese capital. Meanwhile, German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil met with China's top economic official Vice Premier He Lifeng last week for talks that both countries said advanced efforts to move on from the trade tensions. TRADE TIES TRUMP TENSIONS For all the friction over Beijing's support for Russia and its actions in the Indo-Pacific, and Berlin's vocal criticism of China's human rights record and state-subsidised industrial policy, the two countries remain bound by a vast and mutually advantageous commercial relationship. China bought $95 billion worth of German goods last year, around 12% of which were cars, Chinese data shows, putting it among the $19 trillion economy's top 10 trading partners. Germany purchased $107 billion of Chinese goods, mostly chips and other electronic components. But Berlin stands out for China as an investment partner, having injected $6.6 billion in fresh capital in 2024, according to data from the Mercator Institute for China Studies, accounting for 45% of all foreign direct investment into China from the European Union and the United Kingdom. Li said he "hoped Germany would maintain a rational and pragmatic policy toward China, (and) eliminate interference and pressure," during their meeting in South Africa, which is hosting the first G20 summit on the continent. Germany is yet to publish a readout of the meeting. For Germany, China represents a practically irreplaceable auto market, and is responsible for almost a third of German automakers' sales. German chemicals and pharmaceuticals firms also have a large presence in the country, although they are facing increasing pressure from domestic competitors. "China is willing to work with Germany to seize future development opportunities ... in emerging fields such as new energy, smart manufacturing, biomedicine, hydrogen energy technology, and intelligent driving," Li said. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-premier-pitches-german-chancellor-closer-collaboration-strategic-2025-11-24/