2025-12-12 11:24
BEIJING, Dec 12 (Reuters) - The world's largest steel producer, China, plans to roll out a licence system from 2026 to regulate exports of the metal, as robust shipments have fuelled a growing protectionist backlash worldwide. Exporters of some 300 steel items will have to apply for licences on the basis of export contracts and product quality inspection certificates from manufacturers, the commerce ministry said on Friday. Sign up here. "Some steel products will be added into the list of cargoes under export licence management effective from January 1, 2026," it added in a statement. The news followed market talk the previous day that Beijing could be planning such a move. A list of 43 categories of goods , opens new tab subject to export licences in 2025 included wheat, corn, coal and crude oil, the ministry said late in 2024. "The move will help maintain a balance of global supply, demand and trades," the state-backed China Iron and Steel Association said in a statement on its WeChat account. Some analysts downplayed the potential impact on steel exports in the short term, saying it was not hard to secure the necessary licence. "While the near-term impact is limited, the move lays foundations for potentially more stringent regulation in the future," said a Shanghai-based analyst who sought anonymity, as he was not authorised to speak to media. China's steel exports have been surprisingly resilient since 2023. Outbound shipments in the first 11 months of 2025 jumped 6.7% year-on-year to 107.72 million metric tons, keeping the annual total on track to hit a record high. Robust steel exports have helped to partly offset faltering domestic demand dragged down by a protracted property market downturn. But rising product outflows have also prompted countries to throw up more trade barriers on grounds that the flood of cheap products is hurting domestic manufacturers. Ballooning exports of some semi-finished steel products such as steel billet with lower added value sparked criticism from market participants and associations, which called them a waste of valuable resources, such as iron ore. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-require-export-licences-some-steel-products-2025-12-12/
2025-12-12 11:07
KYIV, Dec 12 (Reuters) - Ukraine's special forces said on Friday they had conducted an operation alongside what they described as a local resistance movement to hit two Russian ships transporting weapons and military equipment in the Caspian sea. They did not specify when the strike took place. A Ukrainian official said on Thursday that Kyiv's drones had hit a Russian oil rig in the Caspian Sea for the first time, disabling the extraction of oil and gas from about 20 wells. Sign up here. The special forces' statement on Telegram did not say how they had hit the vessels or what the extent of any damage was. They said the ships were hit off the coast of the republic of Kalmykia, a region of Russia. They named the vessels as the Composer Rakhmaninoff and the Askar-Sarydzha, which they said were sanctioned by the U.S. for carrying military cargoes between Iran and Russia. The statement said that the "Black Spark" resistance movement had provided detailed information on the movement and cargo of the ships. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-it-hit-two-russian-ships-transporting-military-equipment-caspian-2025-12-12/
2025-12-12 11:05
Dec 12 (Reuters) - Shares of cannabis companies jumped on Friday after the Washington Post reported U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to push the government to dramatically loosen federal restrictions on marijuana. U.S.-listed shares of Tilray Brands gained 35%, while SNDL , Canopy Growth (WEED.TO) , opens new tab and ETF AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis (MSOS.P) , opens new tab were up between 20% and 31% in morning trading. Sign up here. Trump is expected to issue an executive order as soon as Monday that would allow for reclassification of weed, CNBC reported, citing a source familiar with the matter. "No final decisions have been made on the rescheduling of marijuana," a White House official said. Trump plans to direct agencies to reclassify marijuana as a Schedule III drug, the Washington Post reported on Thursday, reducing oversight of the plant and its derivatives to the same level as some common prescription painkillers and other drugs. "We believe this would open the door for pharmaceutical companies to seek approval for more cannabis products, which could then be dispensed the same as other prescription drugs," TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg said in a note. Trump's administration has been looking to reclassify marijuana as a less dangerous drug, a shift that could ease criminal penalties and reshape the industry through potentially lower taxes and by making it easier to secure funding. Funding remains one of the biggest challenges for cannabis producers, as federal restrictions keep most banks and institutional investors out of the sector, forcing pot producers to turn to costly loans or alternative lenders. This sets the stage for several catalysts, including "additional states legalizing cannabis, safer banking being passed, and the ultimate uplisting of plant-touching cannabis stocks to major US exchanges", Alliance Global Partners analyst Aaron Grey said. Under the Controlled Substances Act, marijuana is listed as a Schedule I substance, implying it has a high potential for abuse and no currently accepted medical use. Last year, the Biden administration asked the Department of Health and Human Services to review marijuana's classification, and the agency recommended moving it to Schedule III classification. The Drug Enforcement Administration has to review the recommendation and will decide on the reclassification. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/cannabis-stocks-surge-report-trump-seeks-ease-restrictions-2025-12-12/
2025-12-12 10:36
Nasdaq's review due on Friday, MSCI in January Some analysts say Strategy does not qualify for inclusion Strategy shares dropped sharply as bitcoin came off its high Dec 12 (Reuters) - Bitcoin hoarding giant Strategy (MSTR.O) , opens new tab may be at risk of being removed from the Nasdaq 100 index (.NDX) , opens new tab at its annual reshuffle on Friday, amid questions over its business model that have weighed on its share price, some analysts flagged this week. After a sizzling rally that pushed its market capitalization to a peak of $128 billion earlier this year, Strategy - which started out as software company MicroStrategy but pivoted to bitcoin investing in 2020 - was included last December under the index's technology sub-category. Sign up here. That decision was questioned by some market-watchers who argued that the pioneering business model, which has spawned dozens of copycats, more closely resembles an investment fund. Strategy reported a net profit of $2.78 billion for the three months ended September 30, compared with a loss of $340.2 million a year earlier, mostly driven by an accounting change that allowed it to book gains on its bitcoin holdings. The Virginia-based company's revenue from the legacy software business, meanwhile, stood at just $128.7 million. "If MSTR is deemed to be a holding company or a cryptocurrency company rather than its legacy business as a software company, then it is susceptible to removal," said Steve Sosnick, chief market analyst at Interactive Brokers. The exchange operator, whose Nasdaq 100 index tracks the largest non-financial companies by market capitalization, declined to comment ahead of the announcement on Friday. The Information reported , opens new tab in September that Nasdaq has been tightening requirements for digital asset treasury companies it lists. It has not generally commented on the inclusion of those firms in its indices. Strategy did not respond to a request for comment. Index reshuffles are closely watched, since they dictate which companies benefit from billions of passive investor flows. Saylor, though, has generally dismissed worries over potential index exclusion, and some other analysts said they did not expect Nasdaq to delete Strategy on Friday. DIGITAL ASSET TREASURY QUESTIONS Concerns have grown over the sustainability of crypto treasury companies, whose shares have proved extremely sensitive to bitcoin's gyrations. Strategy shares are down 65% from their 2024 peak and 36% year-to-date, compared with a 3.6% drop in bitcoin this year. Strategy's market value has fallen to $52.7 billion as of Thursday, while its bitcoin holdings are worth more than $61 billion, according to Reuters calculations. While that isn't enough to exclude Strategy on market capitalization grounds, Mike O'Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading, argued in a note this week that Strategy had been included on a technicality and that Friday was a "perfect opportunity for Nasdaq to correct last year's mistake." If Nasdaq removes Strategy, the company could experience passive fund outflows of about $1.6 billion, according to estimates by Kaasha Saini, head of index strategy at Jefferies. Global index provider MSCI (MSCI.N) , opens new tab has raised concerns about the presence of digital asset treasury companies in its benchmarks. MSCI is due to decide in January on whether to exclude Strategy and similar companies. Saylor told Reuters this month that Strategy was engaging with MSCI, but that if it was excluded it wouldn't matter. Some analysts believe that Strategy is safe because its market value is still relatively high. H.C. Wainwright analyst Mike Colonnese doubted Strategy would be removed, since it is "larger than about 30 other companies in the Nasdaq 100." Beyond Strategy, Jefferies estimates drugmaker Biogen (BIIB.O) , opens new tab, IT solutions provider CDW (CDW.O) , opens new tab and four other stocks could depart from the Nasdaq 100. The six companies currently have the lowest market cap among the 100 members, according to data compiled by LSEG. Jefferies expects that retail giant Walmart , which has a market capitalization of $932.7 billion, is not eligible to be included this time, because its effective first day of trading (December 8) on the Nasdaq was after the exchange's November 28 reference date for the rebalancing. Nasdaq's announcement is expected after the market close on Friday, with changes effective December 22. (This story has been refiled to 'Nasdaq 100,' in the headline) https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/analysts-flag-risks-strategy-nasdaqs-100-index-reshuffle-2025-12-12/
2025-12-12 10:26
Annual oil and gas revenue to fall short of budget projection Returns hit by cheaper crude and stronger rouble Oil and gas accounts for a quarter of federal budget proceeds MOSCOW, Dec 12 (Reuters) - Russian state oil and gas revenue in December is likely to almost halve from a year earlier to 410 billion roubles ($5.17 billion) as a result of lower crude prices and a stronger rouble, Reuters calculations showed on Friday. Oil and gas revenue is the leading source of cash for the Kremlin, making up a quarter of federal budget proceeds that have been drained by heavy defence and security spending since Russia began its military campaign in Ukraine in February 2022. Sign up here. For the entire year, the revenue is set to fall by almost a quarter to 8.44 trillion roubles, below the Finance Ministry's 8.65 trillion rouble forecast, according to calculations based on data from industry sources and official statistics on production, refining and supplies. Russia reported its lowest monthly oil and gas revenue of 405 billion roubles in August 2020, when oil prices tumbled during the COVID-19 pandemic. Sergei Konygin, a senior analyst at Moscow-based investment bank Sinara, said that the budget deficit of 1.6 trillion roubles expected in December will be covered by state bonds, but 2026 will be more difficult. "Next year is a big challenge to the budget as it was formed under an optimistic scenario of oil at $59 (per barrel) and the rouble at 92 (per dollar)," he said. The Russian oil price used for taxation purposes decreased in November by 16.4% from October to $44.87 a barrel while the rouble strengthened to 80.35 per dollar. Konygin expects amendments to the budget next spring to make use of the National Wealth Fund to address the deficit under a lower assumed price of oil. Ukraine and its Western backers have repeatedly said they want to curb Russian oil revenue to force the world's second-largest oil exporter to end the war in Ukraine. The Finance Ministry had initially expected 10.94 trillion roubles in oil and gas revenue this year but made a downward revision in October to account for global oil prices that have been driven lower by concern over a supply glut. The Finance Ministry will publish its oil and gas revenue estimates for December on January 14. ($1 = 79.3000 roubles) https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-oil-gas-revenue-seen-halving-december-lowest-since-august-2020-2025-12-12/
2025-12-12 07:38
Dec 15 (Reuters) - European Union leaders meet for one last push to secure a deal and fund Ukraine with frozen Russian cash, while the United States releases overdue labour market and retail sales data. Meanwhile, central banks in the euro zone, Japan, Britain, Norway, and Sweden hold their last get-together of the year. Sign up here. Here's all you need to know about the coming week in financial markets by Yoruk Bahceli in London, Andy Bruce in Manchester, John O'Donnell in Frankfurt, Kevin Buckland in Tokyo, and Lewis Krauskopf in New York. 1/ A LONG TIME COMING EU leaders meet on Thursday to thrash out a deal to use frozen Russian cash on the continent to pay for Ukraine. The stakes are high: Frozen assets are Europe's single biggest card to play to get a say in talks chiefly between Washington and Moscow, as they negotiate a settlement of the war in Ukraine. The idea is to tap roughly 210 billion euros ($245 billion) of Russian assets in Europe, the lion's share of which is now cash and locked mainly in Belgium, which has stepped up its opposition to the plan. The EU agreed on Friday to indefinitely freeze Russian central bank assets held in Europe, removing a big obstacle to using the cash to help Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russia's central bank has filed a lawsuit seeking 18.2 trillion roubles ($230 billion) in damages from Belgian securities depository Euroclear, which holds most of the frozen assets. It's a test of Europe's mettle. Can it overcome its divisions to counter the first major armed conflict in decades? There could be a fallout for Western investors, who still own tens of billions of assets stranded in Russia, from factories to cash. But with Ukraine's money running out and the continent's security on the line, European leaders have few alternatives. 2/ BETTER LATE THAN NEVER The shutdown-delayed U.S. jobs report for November will shed light on the extent of labour market weakening , opens new tab that could help determine the Federal Reserve's next rate move. Tuesday's November non-farm payrolls report is expected to show a tepid 35,000 jobs added, according to a Reuters poll. One of the key critical data reports that had been delayed due to the 43-day federal government shutdown comes after the Fed on Wednesday cut , opens new tab rates by a quarter-point for a third straight meeting. However, prospects for further easing remain unclear. And there is more delayed data due to come out, including retail sales for October, also on Tuesday, while November's consumer price index, on Thursday, will detail inflation trends. 3/HOW MANY HIKES? For market participants, a rate hike from the Bank of Japan on December 19 is all but certain, as evidenced by this month's surge in two-year Japan government bond yields to 18-year peaks. What happens next is less particular. At least one additional quarter-point increase to 1% next year is generally agreed upon by some economists, who say that may be the terminal rate for this cycle. Hawks argue the policy rate needs to rise as high as 1.5% to offset inflationary pressure from the new government's stimulus plan, the biggest since the pandemic. The policy path and the messaging around it will be crucial for the yen, which is still sagging despite historic highs in bond yields. With more G10 peers, such as Canada and Australia, turning hawkish of late, the momentum behind currency-depressing yen carry trades looks likely to build in 2026. 4/ NO CHRISTMAS SLUMBER The European Central Bank's meeting on Thursday was meant to be a pre-Christmas snoozefest. But it just got much more interesting after investors moved to bet on a chance of an ECB rate hike, rather than a cut next year, after policymaker Isabel Schnabel said the next move might be a higher one. Her words weren't too surprising coming from the bank's top policy hawk and she even said a hike wouldn't come anytime soon. But stronger-than-expected growth and inflation data had already eroded bets on further cuts since the ECB last met in October. So, while policymakers will likely keep rates steady at 2% again, markets are ready to seize on whatever ECB chief Christine Lagarde says about the outlook. Sweden and Norway's central banks are also expected to keep rates on hold on Thursday. 5/ MAYBE A NOT SO DONE DEAL A December rate cut from the Bank of England looks a near certainty, according to a Reuters poll, but questions about the trajectory for 2026 are likely to remain after Thursday's announcement. Financial markets currently price in a roughly 90% chance of a rate cut to 3.75% from 4.0%, although a bad inflation reading on Wednesday could still shift the dial. The Monetary Policy Committee voted to hold the key rate last month by a 5-4 margin. Whatever the result is on Thursday, divisions will remain going into 2026, based on comments from deputy governors Clare Lombardelli and Dave Ramsden. While Lombardelli broached the idea of reaching the end of the BoE's easing cycle, Ramsden said gradual cuts to interest rates remained appropriate. https://www.reuters.com/business/take-five/global-markets-themes-graphic-2025-12-12/
