2025-10-09 21:22

Oct 9 (Reuters) - The U.N.'s nuclear watchdog said on Thursday the process had started to restore external power to the Russian-held Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in southeastern Ukraine, cut off from the electricity grid for more than two weeks. Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said the process had begun after consultation with authorities in Ukraine and Russia, who blame each other for the downing of the external lines. Sign up here. Russian forces seized the plant, Europe's largest with six reactors, in the first weeks of the Kremlin's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The plant produces no electricity, but each side regularly accuses the other of military actions compromising nuclear safety. "Following intensive consultations, the process leading to the re-establishment of off-site power...has started," Grossi said in a statement on the IAEA website. "While it will still take some time before the grid connection of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant has been restored, the two sides have engaged with us in a constructive way to achieve this important objective for the sake of nuclear safety and security." Since the last external link went down on September 23, the plant has relied on emergency diesel generators to ensure that fuel inside the reactors is cooled and no meltdown occurs. In his statement, Grossi said that IAEA monitors stationed at the plant reported hearing five explosions in succession on Thursday, "occurring close to the site and shaking windows in their building". Grossi also said the decommissioned Chornobyl nuclear power station, site of the world's worst nuclear accident in 1986, remained without an external power line. Ukraine said the plant, now supplied by other power sources, lost the line because of a Russian attack on an electrical substation in a nearby town. Earlier, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov was quoted by the Interfax news agency as saying there were no grounds to restart the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant for now in the absence of an external power source. Russia's state nuclear corporation Rosatom was quoted earlier as saying it was preparing to restart the plant. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iaea-process-started-restore-external-power-ukraines-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-2025-10-09/

2025-10-09 21:03

ORLANDO, Florida, Oct 9 (Reuters) - Wall Street wobbled and gold had its biggest fall in two months on Thursday, backing off from record highs as investors pondered whether a deeper correction might be in the offing amid continued uncertainty caused by the U.S. government shutdown. More on that below. In my column today I consider what is behind the increasingly loose fiscal policy in many developed economies despite sticky inflation and record public debt. Falling living standards for the younger generations could be a factor. Sign up here. If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today. Today's Key Market Moves Today's Talking Points: * Bubble sirens get louder The stock market bubble warnings from on high are picking up. This week we have had the Bank of England, IMF and now JPMorgan boss Jamie Dimon weigh in on the risk of a painful correction and the economic damage that could unleash. Is it different this time? Perhaps - interest rates are falling, not rising; there's no household or business credit bubble; leverage is generally low. Yet the surge in prices, tech valuations, and market concentration is eye-watering. The AI frenzy is surely unsustainable, right? * Private markets reel The bankruptcy protection filing by U.S. auto parts firm First Brands - and mysterious disappearance of $2.3 billion - is intensifying speculation that all is not rosy in the private credit garden. Could this be where bubble risks lie, rather than public markets? Shares in firms heavily involved in private markets like KKR, Carlyle Group and Blackstone are getting slammed as investors fret First Brands' murky finances are not an isolated case. "The opaqueness is part of the process. That's a feature not a bug," investor Jim Chanos told the FT last week. * U.S. earnings season kicks off The Q3 earnings season kicks into gear next week with mega financials - Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, Citi, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley etc - all reporting. The focus, however, will perhaps be on the tariff-affected consumer and retail sectors and, of course, Big Tech. How does the big picture look? The consensus estimate according to LSEG is 8-9% earnings growth. But LPL Financial analysts reckon GDP growth of around 3%, AI capex booming, and a weaker dollar, mean another quarter of low-teens growth is likely. Health warning though - 70% of the consensus estimate is from the biggest six tech firms (Mag 7 minus Tesla). The kids are not alright. Is global fiscal splurge the answer? If you're wondering why there is so little desire anywhere in the developed world to tighten fiscal or monetary policy, take a look at a chart published this week by the International Monetary Fund. It is worth a thousand words. In a preview , opens new tab of the Fund's upcoming World Economic Outlook, Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva presented a chart taken from a paper , opens new tab by Harvard-based researchers showing that the likelihood of young Americans growing up to earn more than their parents has never been lower. Barely half of Americans aged 30 are earning more than their parents, compared with more than 90% half a century ago, the study finds. It's a stark statistic that calls into question not only the "American Dream" but also a fundamental pillar of liberal capitalism, the idea that each generation will enjoy higher living standards than the last. While the paper was published in 2017 and thus focused on "Millennials", it is safe to assume the subsequent "Gen Z" and "Gen Alpha" cohorts are not faring much better. They are coming of age in a post-pandemic world marked by polarized politics, inequality, unaffordable housing, the AI disruption, dwindling pensions, and rising retirement ages. These threats reflect what Georgieva calls the "deep undercurrents of marginalization, discontent, and hardship" impacting young people around the world, not just in America. Growing fear of this deep disillusion may help explain why policymakers across the developed world are seeking to juice their economies by simultaneously revving up their monetary and fiscal engines - even in the face of the AI capex boom, above-target inflation, ultra-loose financial conditions, deteriorating public debt dynamics and record-high prices in many financial markets. 'A PROPER BOND MARKET RIOT' This massive dovish tilt in many advanced economies has accelerated in the past year. In the United States, President Donald Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" - chock-full of tax breaks - will add an estimated $3.4 trillion to the budget deficit over the next decade. Trump has also floated the idea of using tariff revenues to send Americans checks of up to $2,000, and of course, the Federal Reserve has resumed cutting interest rates. Germany has scrapped its "debt brake" and is preparing a fiscal splurge of up to 1 trillion euros, while reluctance to take tough budget decisions has plunged France into political chaos. And investors are betting heavily that Japan's likely new prime minister Sanae Takaichi will make an unambiguously dovish turn in Tokyo's fiscal and monetary policy stance. "Politicians everywhere have fallen into a fiscal trap of their own making; increasingly hostile electorates will surely not tolerate the pain necessary to avoid government debt spiraling out of control," says Albert Edwards, strategist at Societe Generale and long-term market bear. The surge in gold's price this year is the clearest sign that investors are concerned about creeping global "fiscal dominance," when governments' tax and spending plans tie monetary policymakers' hands, Edwards says. Many analysts share his view that this will lead to more currency debasement and higher inflation. Can anything halt this trend? "The only way to break the 'Kicking the can down the road' philosophy is a proper bond market riot," Edwards says, adding that it won't be until inflation is 15% or higher that a figure like former Fed Chair Paul Volcker or UK Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher will "sort out the chaos." Inflation on that scale, and the draconian response to it, is not on the immediate or even middle-distance horizon, of course. In the meantime, financial markets are booming, meaning the rise in paper wealth is outstripping economic and income growth, to the relative detriment of the young. Perhaps AI will spark a productivity boom to narrow that gap, but that remains to be seen. And even if it does, entry-level positions – young workers' first step toward wealth creation – will likely be the ones most at risk from AI disruption. It's a safe bet that many of the policymakers gathering in Washington for the IMF/World Bank meetings next week will keep pressing the fiscal accelerator. Whether that will ultimately be good or bad news for the disillusioned young is another question. What could move markets tomorrow? Want to receive Trading Day in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for my newsletter here. Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles , opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/global-markets-trading-day-graphic-2025-10-09/

2025-10-09 20:50

US Treasury directly buys pesos, Argentine markets rise IMF involved in Washington talks on $20 billion swap line Bessent insists Argentina aid is not a bailout, US won't lose money Boost for Trump ally Milei in midterm legislative elections Oct 9 (Reuters) - (This Oct. 9 story has been refiled to clarify the name of the talk show in paragraph 9) The U.S. Treasury finalized a $20 billion currency swap framework with Argentina and bought pesos in the open market on Thursday, making good on President Donald Trump's pledge to prop up the wobbling country and sending the peso and Argentine dollar bonds sharply higher. Sign up here. "The U.S. Treasury is prepared, immediately, to take whatever exceptional measures are warranted to provide stability to markets," U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in announcing the actions on X. Argentina's 2035 bond rose 4.5 cents to trade at 60.5 cents on the dollar, while the peso closed at 1,418 per dollar, up 0.8% on the day after falling 3% earlier. Local stocks (.MERV) , opens new tab rose 5.3% Thursday. Last month they touched a 2025 low, days before Bessent's initial support pledge. Argentine stocks traded in U.S. exchanges (.BKAR) , opens new tab rallied 13%. Bessent issued his statement at the end of four days of meetings with Argentine Finance Minister Luis Caputo that also involved officials from the International Monetary Fund, which has a $20 billion loan program with Argentina. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva applauded the U.S. move in a post on X, saying the IMF was "fully aligned in support of the country's strong economic program, anchored on fiscal discipline and a robust FX regime to facilitate reserve accumulation." A U.S. Treasury spokesperson declined to provide any further details, including on the amount of pesos purchased and how the $20 billion currency swap line would be structured. Bessent had previously pledged , opens new tab support for Argentina from the Treasury's $221 billion Exchange Stabilization Fund, and its majority holdings of IMF reserve assets known as Special Drawing Rights. Speaking later on "The Ingraham Angle" talk show on Fox News Channel, Bessent insisted that the action was not a bailout, saying that no money was transferred to Buenos Aires and the ESF "has never lost money, it's not going to lose money here." He added that the assistance provided strategic U.S. benefits, including pledges by Argentina's right-wing president, Javier Milei, of "getting China out of Argentina" and its openness to allow U.S. companies to develop its rare earths and uranium resources. Democratic lawmakers in the U.S. Senate complained that Trump was moving to provide financing to bail out a foreign government and global investors, even as the U.S. government has been shut down. BACKSTOP FOR MILEI The backstop is partly aimed at giving Milei's party a boost in Argentina's October 26 midterm legislative elections. His party wants to strengthen its minority position to solidify his agenda to cut government spending and boost private-sector investment. Argentine lawmakers are working to limit what the president can do via decrees, raising the stakes for Milei's party in the midterms. Although the effect on financial markets was immediate, there was no guarantee the U.S. backstop will improve Milei's party's election prospects as public dissent over his austerity measures has grown. UBS' Shamaila Khan, head of fixed income for emerging markets and Asia Pacific, said the announcement was likely to bolster prospects for Milei's party. Kathryn Exum, co-head of sovereign research at Gramercy, said the midterms remain the major event, as are a policy and FX adjustment after the vote. Bessent called the success of Milei's reforms of "systemic importance" to the U.S. by helping to anchor a prosperous Western Hemisphere. 'CLOSEST OF ALLIES' Milei, who is due to meet Trump next week during the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Washington, thanked Bessent and Trump in a message on X. "Together, as the closest of allies, we will make a hemisphere of economic freedom and prosperity. We will work hard every day to provide opportunity for our people," Milei wrote. Investors greeted the intervention with a sigh of relief. Eduardo Ordonez Bueso, emerging markets debt portfolio manager at BankInvest, said markets had been hungry for details of Bessent's support pledge and had been challenging peso valuations. "If they hadn't come through with a promise they made...we would be talking about a complete collapse of Argentina," he said. Several U.S. Senate Democrats introduced legislation that would prohibit the use of the Exchange Stabilization Fund to bail out Argentina and global investors. The measure is largely symbolic, as Democrats remain the minority in both chambers of Congress. "It is inexplicable that President Trump is propping up a foreign government, while he shuts down our own," said Senator Elizabeth Warren, referring to the partial government shutdown due to lack of funding. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-purchased-argentine-pesos-after-top-finance-officials-meeting-bessent-says-2025-10-09/

2025-10-09 20:48

Most World Bank directors signed the statement Statement calls for continuing 45% pledge for climate finance IMF, World Bank preparing for annual meetings next week WASHINGTON, Oct 9 (Reuters) - Nineteen of the World Bank's 25 executive directors issued a joint statement this week affirming their support for the bank's continued work on climate change, defying the U.S., the bank's largest shareholder, and several other countries. The executive directors for the U.S., Russia, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia declined to sign the document; Japan and India - both negotiating trade deals with the U.S. - abstained, a source familiar with the matter said. Sign up here. The directors, who represent 120 countries, issued the statement after a board meeting with World Bank management, underscoring their expectation that the bank will stick to its climate change action plan goals, including a pledge to devote 45% of its annual financing to climate-related projects. The document, a copy of which was viewed by Reuters, reflects the deep divide separating most other countries from the U.S. and a handful of allies over climate change. It comes days before the start of the annual meetings in Washington of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund. The U.S. is the largest shareholder in both institutions and plays a big role in shaping their work and agendas. Reuters reported this week that the European Union will double down on its support for reforming global development banks to do more to fight climate change. In April, at the last IMF-World Bank meetings, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called on both institutions to refocus on their core mandates and said they were devoting too much time and resources to topics like climate change. The leaders of both institutions have gone largely silent on climate change since U.S. President Donald Trump took office, and the issue is not highlighted in next week's agenda. Trump last month dismissed climate change as a "con job." The statement also called for aligning the bank's work with the Paris climate accord, from which U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew shortly after taking office in January. It also called for continuing to factor climate change into its core diagnostic work. "We reaffirm our support for the World Bank Group's leadership role across the (International Financial Institutions) on climate and nature action, advocating for and supporting countries' demand for low carbon, climate resilient, and nature positive pathways," the statement said. The directors also called for further work in some areas under the bank's current Climate Change Action Plan, supporting workers as their countries transition away from coal, a shift described as "complex but essential for energy transition." More work was also needed in helping countries design and implement long-term national climate and development plans, and developing effective carbon markets, the letter said. The statement listed several areas that were being demanded by client countries but are not covered by the bank's current climate change plan, including addressing pollution, mainstreaming nature and scaling adaptation and resilience efforts. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/cop/us-declines-sign-world-bank-directors-joint-statement-climate-agenda-2025-10-09/

2025-10-09 20:43

Venture Global breached obligations at Calcasieu Pass plant, ICC rules BP seeking over $1 billion in damages from Venture Global Venture Global shares drop 10% after arbitration ruling HOUSTON, Oct 9 (Reuters) - BP (BP.L) , opens new tab has won its arbitration case against Venture Global (VG.N) , opens new tab over the U.S. supplier's failure to deliver liquefied natural gas under a long-term contract that was due to start in late 2022, Venture Global said on Thursday. The International Chamber of Commerce International Court of Arbitration found that Venture Global breached its obligations to declare commercial operations had begun at the Calcasieu Pass plant in a timely manner and act as a "reasonable and prudent operator," Venture Global said in a regulatory filing. Sign up here. The BP ruling contrasts with a decision in August that saw Venture Global prevail in a similar complaint from Shell (SHEL.L) , opens new tab. It was not immediately clear why the two cases resulted in different results. BP is seeking damages of more than $1 billion plus interest, costs and attorneys' fees. "The company is disappointed by the arbitration tribunal’s decision in the proceeding with BP, which it believes contradicts the decisive findings in the prior arbitration involving Shell," Venture Global said in its filing. Shares of Venture Global were down more than 10% in after-hours trade, shaving off nearly $3.3 billion from the company's market capitalization. HEARING TO DETERMINE DAMAGES NEXT YEAR A separate hearing is expected in 2026 to determine the extent of the damages the U.S. operator will have to pay BP, and the amount may exceed a cap on how much BP and other customers could claim that is contained in the original sales agreement, Venture Global said. BP said it was pleased with the outcome of this phase of the arbitration and looked forward to the determination of how much it would be paid as a result of Venture Global's breach of contract. Venture Global said it was evaluating all available options in response to the tribunal's ruling and it would continue to vigorously defend its position. The company also reported on Thursday that it reached a resolution with another Calcasieu Pass customer that had taken it to arbitration, without naming the company. That settlement has no material impact on Venture Global, it said in the filing. Other companies, including Edison (EDNn.MI) , opens new tab and Galp (GALP.LS) , opens new tab, have also filed claims against Venture Global, accusing it of profiting from the sale of LNG on the spot market after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, rather than shipping previously contracted LNG cargoes to them from the Calcasieu Pass export facility in Louisiana at much lower prices. Throughout the dispute, Venture Global has argued it was allowed to conduct the spot sales after the start of official commercial operations was delayed by a faulty power island. The company officially started commercial operations at Calcasieu Pass in April 2025 and has since earned significantly lower prices from selling LNG to BP and other customers at contracted prices. Venture Global's average fees collected fell around 70% from the first quarter of the year to the second, after it started honoring the longer-term contracts and stopped the contested spot sales. Over that period, the Dutch Title Transfer Facility that determines gas prices in Europe, where Venture Global sells most of its cargoes, dropped 24%. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/bp-wins-arbitration-case-against-venture-global-over-lng-cargoes-2025-10-09/

2025-10-09 20:37

Fourth round of US Iran sanctions that target a China refinery US also sanctions first Chinese petrochemical terminal Trump says would like Iran to be able to rebuild Iran oil exports hit year high in September -Tanker tracker UANI WASHINGTON, Oct 9 (Reuters) - The U.S. imposed sanctions on about 100 individuals, entities and vessels, including a Chinese independent refinery and terminal, that helped Iran's oil and petrochemicals trade, the administration of President Donald Trump said on Thursday. The Treasury Department sanctioned the Shandong Jincheng Petrochemical Group, which it said is an independent teapot refinery in Shandong Province that has purchased millions of barrels of Iranian oil since 2023. Sign up here. It also sanctioned China-based Rizhao Shihua Crude Oil Terminal, which operates a terminal at Lanshan Port. Treasury said it has accepted more than a dozen of Iran's so-called shadow fleet vessels that evade the sanctions. The tankers included Kongm, Big Mag, and Voy, which Treasury said transported several million barrels of Iranian oil to Rizhao. The U.S. believes Iran's oil networks help Tehran fund its nuclear and missile programs and support militant proxies throughout the Middle East. Iran says its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes. The sanctions came even as Israel and Hamas signed a Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal, which if fully implemented, would bring the two sides closer than any previous effort to halt a war that had evolved into a regional conflict, drawing in countries such as Iran, Yemen and Lebanon. Treasury said it was the fourth round of sanctions in which the administration targeted China-based refineries that continue to purchase Iranian oil. "The Treasury Department is degrading Iran's cash flow by dismantling key elements of Iran's energy export machine,” said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Trump, at a Cabinet meeting in the White House after the sanctions were released, said Iran told the administration it was in favor of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire and hostage deal and that the U.S. would work with Tehran. "We'd like to see them be able to rebuild their country too, but they can't have a nuclear weapon," said Trump, who said on Thursday he will be leaving for the Middle East soon. Despite waves of U.S. sanctions, Iran continues to export large amounts of oil. United Against a Nuclear Iran, which tracks the country's petroleum shipments, said Iran's oil exports in September set a new high for the year of about 63.2 million barrels, worth about $4.26 billion. UANI said September's growth in sales was likely due to stockpiling ahead of the resumption of U.N. sanctions on Iran. The State Department said the U.S. also designated the first China-based terminal, Jiangyin Foreversun Chemical Logistics, for receiving Iranian-origin petrochemical products. The Chinese embassy in Washington and Iran's mission to the United Nations in New York did not immediately respond to requests for comment. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-imposes-sanctions-china-refinery-others-iran-oil-purchases-2025-10-09/