2025-12-12 07:07

Domestic gold prices in India at a record high China discounts widen to $20 below global spot prices Investors in Japan look to book profits ahead of holidays Dec 12 (Reuters) - Gold discounts in India widened this week as demand fell despite the wedding season after prices scaled record highs, while Chinese demand remained muted amid volatility and high spot prices. Indian dealers were offering a discount of up to $34 per ounce to official domestic prices this week, inclusive of 6% import and 3% sales levies, wider than last week's discount of up to $22. Sign up here. Jewellers haven't been buying (gold) as store footfalls have dropped sharply due to the price rally, a Mumbai-based bullion dealer with a private bank said. Domestic gold prices hit a record high of 132,776 rupees per 10 grams on Friday. "Rising prices are really killing the wedding-season vibe. Buyers just aren't willing to shop at these highs," a Mumbai-based jeweller said. Weddings are a key driver of gold demand in India, with bullion widely gifted by family and friends. In top consumer China, bullion traded anywhere from discounts of $20 an ounce to premiums of $10, compared with the global benchmark spot price. "Physical demand remains soft and volatile (in China), as gold prices reach record highs and discounts deepen. The recent VAT (value-added tax) adjustment has increased costs for jewellers and further weighed on retail demand," said Bernard Sin, regional director- Greater China, MKS PAMP. On November 1, Beijing cut a VAT exemption for certain gold purchased through the Shanghai Gold and Shanghai Futures exchanges. Gold prices held near a seven-week high on Friday, supported by expectations of more interest rate cuts next year after the U.S. Federal Reserve pushed back against hawkish market bets. In Singapore , gold was sold at premiums of $1.5 to $3.50 this week, while in Hong Kong it traded from a $0.5 discount to a $2.5 premium. In Japan , bullion traded at discounts of up to $5.5 to a $1 premium over spot prices amid slow demand, with retail shops holding smaller quantities and investors booking profits ahead of the New Year holidays. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/asia-gold-india-gold-discounts-widen-prices-hit-record-high-china-demand-muted-2025-12-12/

2025-12-12 06:30

Dollar on pace for third straight weekly decline UK GDP data in focus Fed's less hawkish stance drags dollar Markets diverge from policymakers on rate cuts for next year NEW YORK, Dec 12 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar rose against major currencies on Friday after falling in recent sessions, but was still on track for its third straight weekly drop amid the prospect of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve next year. Sterling also eased after data showed the UK economy unexpectedly shrank in the three months to October. Sign up here. The euro was flat at $1.1735 after hitting a more than two-month high on Thursday. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six others, rose 0.1% to 98.44, rallying from a two-month low hit on Thursday but still on track for its third weekly decline with a 0.6% fall. For the month of December, the greenback has been 1.1% weaker so far. The index was also down more than 9% this year, on pace for its steepest annual drop since 2017. "It's Friday fatigue. The dollar is down on the week and it's pretty much down the whole month," said Bob Savage, head of markets macro strategy at BNY in New York. "And is it because the Fed cut rates? Yes partially." Against the yen, the dollar rose 0.2% to 155.93 yen ahead of next week's Bank of Japan meeting, where the broad expectation is for a rate hike. Markets are focused on comments from policymakers on how the rate path will look in 2026. Reuters reported that the BoJ would likely maintain a pledge next week to keep raising interest rates, but stress that the pace of further hikes would depend on how the economy reacts to each increase. The pound edged down 0.2% against the dollar to $1.3375, but not far from a seven-week peak hit on Thursday, after economic data that was likely to boost expectations for Bank of England interest rate cuts. Both sterling and the euro are poised for their third straight week of gains against the dollar. UNCERTAINTY OVER U.S. MONETARY POLICY NEXT YEAR The Fed cut rates as expected this week but comments from Chair Jerome Powell and the accompanying statement were viewed by investors as less hawkish than expected and reinforced dollar-selling momentum. "That was a neutral cut," said BNY's Savage, disagreeing with market participants describing the Fed's move last Wednesday as a some form of "hawkish" easing. "Yes, the board is divided and we saw that in the dissents, But it's not fair to say that the Fed is going to raise rates like what the other central banks are talking about like the ECB (European Central Bank) and RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia)." Douglas Porter, chief economist, at BMO wrote in a research note that the dollar index has fallen about 7% from its January peak. He expects it "to soften another 2%-to-3% in 2026, as the Fed eases further—our call is for another 75 bps (basis points)—while many others head the other way." Investors face uncertainty over the path of U.S. monetary policy next year as inflation trends and labor market strength remain unclear, with traders pricing in two rate cuts in 2026 in contrast with policymakers who see only one cut next year and one in 2027. Fed officials who voted against the U.S. central bank's interest rate cut this week said on Friday they are worried that inflation remains too high to warrant lower borrowing costs, particularly given the lack of recent official data about the pace of price increases. How monetary policy evolves will hinge on economic data that is still lagging from the impact of the 43-day federal government shutdown in October and November. The U.S. is heading into a midterm-election year that is likely to focus on economic performance, with President Donald Trump urging sharper rate reductions. Also in the spotlight for markets is the question of who will become the next Fed chair and how that will affect the growing worries about the central bank's independence under Trump. Across the Atlantic, sterling slipped on the back of data showing gross domestic product contracted by 0.1% in the August-to-October period. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a flat reading. The latest data cemented bets that the BoE will cut rates next week, though such a move has been nearly fully priced in for weeks. In other currencies, the Swiss franc steadied at 0.7951 per U.S. dollar, after rising to an almost one-month high on Thursday after the Swiss National Bank left its policy rate unchanged at 0% and said a recent agreement to reduce U.S. tariffs on Swiss goods had improved the economic outlook, even as inflation has somewhat undershot expectations. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/dollar-staggers-third-straight-weekly-drop-investors-ponder-fed-outlook-2025-12-12/

2025-12-12 06:23

Wall Street stocks end down sharply with tech shares Investors brace for BoE, ECB, BOJ rate decisions ahead US yields rise; dollar gains as well NEW YORK, Dec 12 (Reuters) - Major stock indexes fell on Friday, with technology-related shares dropping again as investors were wary of artificial intelligence bets, while the dollar edged higher and U.S. Treasury yields jumped. Yields gained as investors weighed commentary from Federal Reserve officials who voted against the U.S. central bank's interest rate cut this week said on Friday they are worried that inflation remains too high to warrant lower borrowing costs. Rising yields also weighed on stocks. Sign up here. Technology (.SPLRCT) , opens new tab fell 2.9%, the most of the major S&P 500 sectors as tech-related fears lingered. Cloud computing company Oracle (ORCL.N) , opens new tab earlier this week flagged massive spending and weak forecasts. A warning about margins from chipmaker Broadcom (AVGO.O) , opens new tab late on Thursday added to the concerns. Broadcom shares ended 11.4% lower. Oracle fell 4.5% on top of Thursday's almost 11% plunge, while AI leader Nvidia (NVDA.O) , opens new tab was down 3.3%. Bruce Zaro, managing director at Granite Wealth Management in Plymouth, Massachusetts, said "continued disappointment and uncertainty over the AI trade and technology trade" pressured the market. "I would have thought this choppiness would have ended by now," he said, adding: "We're in a really, really good seasonal period. Typically mid-December through the last trading days of the year is traditionally the Santa Claus rally period." Investors were optimistic about further U.S. interest rate cuts in 2026 after the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, in a 9-3 decision, even though policymakers signalled that it will put further reductions on pause for now. Policymakers have expressed concerns about a cooling labor market as well as inflation that remains too high. U.S. jobless claims data on Thursday showed the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits increased by the most in nearly 4-1/2 years last week. The Bank of England is expected to cut rates next Thursday. The European Central Bank is expected to keep them steady, although traders are now speculating it could hike rates in 2026. The Bank of Japan is expected to hike rates after strong signals from Governor Kazuo Ueda. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) , opens new tab fell 245.96 points, or 0.51%, to 48,458.05, the S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab fell 73.59 points, or 1.07%, to 6,827.41 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) , opens new tab fell 398.69 points, or 1.69%, to 23,195.17. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) , opens new tab fell 6.39 points, or 0.63%, to 1,008.88. The pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) , opens new tab index ended 0.53% lower. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rose after two straight sessions of declines. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note rose 5.1 basis points to 4.192% and was up more than 5 basis points on the week, set for a second straight weekly climb. Earlier, German government bond yields rose after hitting their highest level since March earlier this week, underscoring how investors have begun pricing in euro zone rate hikes. The divergence comes as traders still broadly expect U.S. rates to fall in the long term, despite Friday's jump in yields. Germany’s 30-year yield , more sensitive to long-term fiscal concerns, climbed to a fresh 14-year high of 3.498%, up 3.5 basis points. DOLLAR GAINS, POUND FALLS SLIGHTLY ON UK DATA The U.S. dollar drifted higher against major currencies, also after falling in recent sessions, but was still set for its third straight weekly drop amid the prospect of interest rate cuts by the Fed next year. Sterling eased after data showed the UK economy unexpectedly shrank in the three months to October. The pound edged down 0.2% against the dollar to $1.3375, but not far from a seven-week peak hit on Thursday. Against the yen, the dollar rose 0.2% to 155.93 yen ahead of next week's BoJ meeting, where the broad expectation is for a rate hike. Reuters reported that the BoJ would likely maintain a pledge next week to keep raising interest rates, but stress that the pace of further hikes would depend on how the economy reacts to each increase. The euro was flat at $1.1735 after hitting a more than two-month high on Thursday, while the dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six others, rose 0.1% to 98.44. COPPER PLUNGES FROM RECORD HIGH Copper plunged more than 3%, after hitting a record high earlier in the session, as renewed fears of the AI bubble bursting sparked a broad selloff of riskier assets. Benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange fell as much as 3.5% to $11,451.50 and was trading down 2.8% at $11,537.50 as of 1700 GMT. Oil prices closed lower and posted a 4% weekly decline as a supply glut and possible Russia-Ukraine peace deal outweighed fears about the impact from the U.S. seizure of an oil tanker near Venezuela. U.S. crude fell 16 cents to settle at $57.44 a barrel and Brent fell 16 cents to settle at $61.12. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-pix-2025-12-12/

2025-12-12 06:03

JAKARTA, Dec 12 (Reuters) - Indonesia expects to complete tariff talks with the United States by the end of the year, its chief negotiator said on Friday, with a delegation set to visit Washington next week to resume them. Talks had appeared at risk of collapse this week after the United States accused Jakarta of backtracking on prior commitments, although Indonesia said their "dynamics" were normal and it was just a matter of "harmonising the language". Sign up here. The timeline for conclusion of talks followed a video call on Thursday between senior economic minister Airlangga Hartarto and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer on the tariffs. "We agree to complete what has been agreed upon in the leaders' declaration on July 22," Airlangga told an economic forum, adding that a non-disclosure pact kept him from giving details. Asked if the United States had sought inclusion of a requirement for Indonesia to inform it of future trade deals with other countries, Airlangga said, "It is an agreement that is not with Indonesia." It was not immediately clear if Indonesia was open to such a clause, however. Such a provision in the U.S. deal struck with Malaysia , opens new tab allows the United States to end the pact and restore the tariff President Donald Trump announced in April, if new deals endanger key U.S. interests and talks fail to resolve its concerns. Cambodia , opens new tab also has a similar clause in its U.S. deal agreed in October, with some difference in the wording. A U.S. tariff deal is key to ensure Southeast Asia's largest economy can keep up its exports, particularly in textiles, footwear and palm oil. The United States imposed a tariff of 19% on Indonesian products, down from 32% earlier, after Jakarta agreed , opens new tab to scrap tariffs on more than 99% of U.S. goods and drop all non-tariff barriers to its firms. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/indonesia-expects-complete-tariff-negotiations-with-us-by-year-end-official-says-2025-12-12/

2025-12-12 05:34

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Gregor Stuart Hunter After a banner year for precious metals, industrial metals are in focus today as the prospect of more stimulus from China pushes Shanghai copper futures to a record high. Sign up here. As the U.S. dollar falls to a two-month low after this week's Fed rate cut and policy stance pushed back against the market's hawkish outlook, investors are turning to real assets to protect their purchasing power. So-called dollar debasement trades had already lifted silver, which edged down 0.3% on Friday after hitting a fresh record of $64.31 the day earlier, while gold drew back from a seven-week high. Stock markets in Asia posted gains even though AI bubble jitters undermined tech shares. Strength on Wall Street helped lift the MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan Index 0.8%, while the Topix (.TPX) , opens new tab surged 1.5% to a record high, led by a 6.7% gain for Sumitomo Metal Mining (5713.T) , opens new tab. The tech sector was rattled by a 13% decline in Oracle (ORCL.N) , opens new tab after weaker-than-expected revenue growth forecasts from the OpenAI cloud-computing partner. Investors took some heart after Broadcom (AVGO.O) , opens new tab projected better-than-expected revenue. But the relief was brief as shares tumbled 5% in after-hours trading after the company said it expected a dip in quarterly margins. Nasdaq futures slipped slightly, while S&P 500 e-mini futures were flat. Oil prices also found their footing, but the drivers were geopolitical rather than demand-centred. Brent futures rose 0.7% to $61.70 as renewed threats from U.S. President Trump of strikes on drug routes between the U.S. and Venezuela on land raised supply fears, as several sources told Reuters that the U.S. is preparing to intercept more tankers , opens new tab. In early European trade, pan-region futures , German DAX futures and FTSE futures were all up 0.4% apiece. Key developments that could influence markets on Friday: Economic data: Germany: CPI and HICP for November U.K.: GDP Estimate, Goods Trade Balance, and Industrial, Services and Manufacturing Output for October France: CPI for November Debt auctions: U.K. 1-month, 3-month and 6-month government debt https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-view-europe-2025-12-12/

2025-12-12 05:32

Silver hit record high at $64.56/oz Weekly jobless claims at 4-1/2-year highs Dollar hovers near two-month low Dec 12 (Reuters) - Gold prices rose 1% to a seven-week high on Friday, bolstered by a soft dollar, expectations of interest rate cuts and safe-haven demand prompted by geopolitical turbulence, while silver hit a record high. Spot gold rose 1% to $4,327.31 per ounce by 1248 GMT, its highest level since October 21, and was set for a 3.1% weekly gain. Sign up here. U.S. gold futures gained 1.2% to $4,363.20. The dollar hovered near a two-month low, and was on track for a third straight weekly drop, making bullion more affordable for overseas buyers. "The sharp rise in U.S. weekly jobless claims as well as U.S.-Venezuela tensions are underpinning gold and keeping haven demand strong," said Zain Vawda, analyst at MarketPulse by OANDA. U.S. jobless claims rose by the most in nearly 4-1/2 years last week, reversing the sharp drop seen in the previous week. The U.S. Federal Reserve trimmed rates by 25 basis points for the third time this year on Wednesday, but indicated caution on additional cuts. Investors are currently pricing in two rate cuts next year, and next week's U.S. non-farm payrolls report could provide further clues on the Fed's future policy path. Non-yielding assets such as gold tend to benefit in low-interest-rate environment. On the geopolitical front, the U.S. is preparing to intercept more ships transporting Venezuelan oil following the seizure of a tanker this week. Meanwhile, India saw widening gold discounts this week as demand remained subdued despite the wedding season, while high spot prices dented demand in China. Spot silver rose 0.8% to $64.09 per ounce, after hitting a new record high of $64.56/oz, and is headed for a 10% weekly gain. Prices have more than doubled this year, supported by strong industrial demand, dwindling inventories and its inclusion on the U.S. critical minerals list. "Silver is supported by industrial demand amid fears of shortages, a continued tight market, and the speculative frenzy, mostly from retail investors which has helped drive inflows to Silver ETFs," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. Elsewhere, platinum was up 3.2% at $1,750.35, while palladium climbed 2.6% to $1,523.10. Both were headed for a weekly rise. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-clings-7-week-high-investors-gauge-fed-trajectory-silver-near-record-peak-2025-12-12/