2025-10-09 16:05

MEXICO CITY, Oct 9 (Reuters) - Citigroup (C.N) , opens new tab on Thursday rejected Mexican mining and transport conglomerate Grupo Mexico's (GMEXICOB.MX) , opens new tab bid for its retail unit in the country, known as Banamex, opting instead to push forward with a previously agreed-upon deal. Grupo Mexico surprised last week when it made an unsolicited $9.3 billion offer for Banamex, more than two years after it had backed away from negotiations. Sign up here. The news rocked local markets, wiping off billions in the firm's market capitalization. Shares in Grupo Mexico climbed more than 4.5% on Citi's statement Thursday that it rejected the bid. Citi last month announced that it would sell a 25% stake in Banamex to Mexican billionaire Fernando Chico Pardo, chairman of airport operator ASUR (ASURB.MX) , opens new tab, for around $2.3 billion. The lender then planned to hold a public offering for the rest of the unit, it said at the time, while also gauging the interest of other local magnates. Citi on Thursday said that it believed that deal was the best option to divest from Banamex responsibly and maximize value for shareholders. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/citi-rejects-grupo-mexico-bid-banamex-unit-2025-10-09/

2025-10-09 15:50

Options market shows strong bullish sentiment For individual stocks, call options outnumber puts by widest margin in four years S&P 500's rally lowers index volatility, individual stock volatility rises Barclays euphoria indicator suggests potential for diminishing returns NEW YORK, Oct 9 (Reuters) - At a time when investors could worry about tariffs, growth, and shifting Federal Reserve policy, their biggest fear looks to be missing out on further stock market gains, options data showed. With stocks hitting new highs, traders in the options market are lapping up call options with near-record fervor. Sign up here. For individual stocks, trading in call options, typically bought to express a bullish view, exceeds volume in puts, options that express bearish views, by the largest margin in about four years, according to a Reuters analysis of Trade Alert data. "It's all upside exuberance at this point," Greg Boutle, head of U.S. equity & derivative strategy at BNP Paribas, said. The rush into bullish single-stock options is driving unusual moves in important options-market metrics. The S&P 500's rally to record highs has knocked the index's one-month volatility to a near-record low of 6.7%, even as investors' expectations for how much individual stocks will swing, as shown by the Cboe S&P 500 Constituent Volatility Index, have climbed to a more than five-month high. For single stocks, measures of skew, a gauge of demand for downside protection versus upside speculation, have been turned on their head, as typical worries about drops in stock prices have been overtaken by concerns of missing out on further gains. The share of stocks trading with an inverted skew has risen dramatically over the past few months, Stefano Pascale, head of U.S. equity derivatives research at Barclays, said. "It's a typical sign of euphoria," Pascale said. A BIT LIKE THE LATE 1990S The Barclays Equity Euphoria Indicator, which measures investor sentiment intensity based on derivatives flows, shows continued heightened bullish sentiment among retail investors. The one-month moving average of the indicator sits at about 14.3%, nearly three standard deviations above its long-term average. Much of this investor optimism is concentrated in the same high-flying names that have driven this year's stock market rally. "Investor demand for single-stock calls has been extremely strong, especially across AI, semiconductors, and metals," Chris Murphy, co-head of derivative strategy at Susquehanna Financial Group, said. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite is up about 19% for the year, compared with a 15% rise for the S&P 500. Meanwhile, AI-linked stocks, including Nvidia (NVDA.O) , opens new tab and Broadcom (AVGO.O) , opens new tab, are up about 38% and 45%, respectively. With the market more than recovering from its April tariff-related swoon, investors have been emboldened to increase equity allocations. Some who were slow to join the rally are now using options to make up for lost time, strategists said. Strong bullish flows into these names also tend to unleash a virtuous cycle: the more investors buy call options that confer the right to purchase the stock at a predetermined price and time, the more options dealers, who sell those contracts, have to buy the underlying stocks as they move higher to hedge their own exposure. "We're definitely seeing a lot of that, especially in the AI-related names," Barclays' Pascale said, noting such strong bullish options flows can trigger market dynamics seen during the meme stock frenzy in recent years. For BNP's Boutle the euphoric trading conditions are reminiscent of "late-cycle exuberance." "We have this kind of environment that is starting to feel a little bit late 90s-esque," he said, referring to the dot com bubble that burst in 2000. ARE STOCKS OVERSTRETCHED? For investors, the key question remains how long these conditions can last. History shows once an outsized share of stocks starts exhibiting signs of euphoria, it usually heralds diminishing forward returns. In particular, the Barclays euphoria indicator shows once a stock exhibits these signs for a few sessions, subsequent stock performance is often negative on average. High levels of euphoria have historically preceded pauses in the market's momentum, a Barclays analysis showed. "If you're starting to see overstretched positions and evidence that there is euphoria ... it's kind of bad news," Pascale said. CHASING THE MARKET, GUARDEDLY Still, there is no telling exactly how long these conditions can last. "One of the lessons we learned from the late 90s is that even if you think it's a bubble ... these things can run a lot harder, a lot faster, and being short too early or uninvested can equally be very painful," BNP's Boutle said. That leaves investors aiming for a balance between chasing the rally further and ensuring their portfolios can weather a turn in market sentiment. "We speak to people at the moment as much about hedging the upside as we do the downside," Boutle said. https://www.reuters.com/business/fear-missing-out-trumps-other-worries-euphoria-grips-us-stock-options-traders-2025-10-09/

2025-10-09 15:38

Oct 9 (Reuters) - Gold's unprecedented ascent this week to the $4,000 an ounce milestone and beyond puts it on course for its best year since the Iranian Revolution in 1979, solidifying its status as a barometer for global geopolitics and the economy. Bullion's 53% gain so far this year follows a stellar 27% rise in 2024. Sign up here. The steady upward trajectory has been driven by a rush to the asset considered a safe store of value as investors seek cover from uncertainties spurred by conflicts in the Middle East, between Russia and Ukraine, political developments in the U.S., Japan and France, all supplemented by bets for more U.S. interest rate cuts. "Gold is performing its important role as a bellwether or a barometer, which gauges when things just aren’t right," said Ross Norman, an independent analyst. Spot gold steadied at around $4,025 per ounce on Thursday, hitting pause after surging to an all-time high of $4,059.05 on Wednesday, as investors assessed an Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal. "Having cleared the $4,000 hurdle, by rights gold should pause for breath. That said, it has not shown much restraint year to date," Norman said. Bullion has logged multiple record highs this year, shattering analyst expectations, also underpinned by expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts since that would translate into reduced opportunity cost of holding assets such as gold, which pays no interest or dividends, while also weakening the dollar. Market participants see chances of two more rate cuts this year, with the CME FedWatch tool showing a 95% chance of a 25 basis-point cut during the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting on October 29. A continued rise in central bank purchases as a means to diversify assets, along with increased flow into gold-backed exchange-traded funds, has also boosted gold's status. Globally, inflows into gold ETFs have hit $64 billion year-to-date, according to World Gold Council data, flipping from outflows of about $23 billion over the last four years. Gold-backed ETFs in the second-biggest bullion consumer India, meanwhile, registered their largest monthly inflow in September, taking assets under management to a record $10 billion. And there is more room to go, market participants said. "Investor appetite isn’t slowing down... this upward trajectory suggests more room for expansion, and less reason for it to drop," said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and FOREX.com. Silver, meanwhile, was trading at $51 per ounce, after hitting its all-time high of $51.22 earlier in the session. The metal has gained 72% this year, driven by the same factors driving gold and supported by underlying market tightness. "Silver has also benefited as investors cast their sights across the precious metals complex amid the broader safe-haven play," said Han Tan, chief market analyst at Nemo.money. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/golds-rush-above-4000oz-cements-status-global-bellwether-2025-10-09/

2025-10-09 14:40

BOGOTA, Oct 9 (Reuters) - Colombia carried out its largest domestic public debt swap in history, for 43.4 trillion pesos ($11.18 billion), the Finance Ministry said on Wednesday night, as part of its debt management strategy amid the country's strained finances. In the transaction, the nation will receive domestic public debt securities (TES) maturing between 2025 and 2050 in exchange for TES maturing between 2029 and 2058, the ministry said in a post on X. Sign up here. The ministry received requests totaling 49.2 trillion pesos ($12.68 billion). The swap will generate fiscal savings of 1.7 trillion pesos ($438 million) this year due to interest, the statement added. This is the seventh domestic public debt swap the government has undertaken this year. ($1= 3,879.80 pesos) https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/colombia-carries-out-largest-domestic-debt-swap-history-112-billion-2025-10-09/

2025-10-09 14:24

Takaichi says must aim to achieve demand-led inflation Recent inflation is still driven by rising raw material costs Takaichi says don't want to ignite excessive yen fall Weak yen has pros and cons, Takaichi says Takichi vows to immediately compile stimulus package TOKYO, Oct 9 (Reuters) - Japan's ruling party chief Sanae Takaichi said on Thursday that the country's central bank is responsible for setting monetary policy but that any decision it makes must align with the government's goal. Recent inflation in Japan has been driven by rising raw material costs rather than solid demand, Takaichi told a television programme when asked about prospects of a near-term interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan. Sign up here. "I believe we should aim to achieve inflation driven by (strong) demand," Takaichi said, signalling her caution against a premature rate hike. "Specific monetary policy means fall under the jurisdiction of the BOJ. But any decision it makes must align with the government's economic policy," said Takaichi, who is known as an advocate of expansionary fiscal and monetary policy. Takaichi's surprise victory in a weekend party leadership race, which puts her on course to become Japan's first female prime minister, has pushed the yen to an eight-month low against the dollar on receding bets of a near-term interest rate hike by the BOJ. "I don't want to trigger excessive yen declines. But in general, there are pros and cons to a weak yen," Takaichi said. While a weak yen serves as a buffer for manufacturers hit by higher U.S. tariffs, it hurts households by pushing up the cost of raw material imports, she said. Takaichi said she will immediately issue an order to compile a package of steps to cushion the economic impact of rising living costs if she is chosen by parliament to become the next prime minister. "We must pass through parliament legislation to cut the gasoline tax and compile a supplementary budget. Otherwise, people will continue to suffer from the rising cost of living, which will hurt consumption, weigh on corporate profits and hurt the economy," she said. Japanese government bond (JGB) yields have risen on the prospect of Takaichi deploying a big spending package that adds to the country's huge debt pile and worsens its already tattered finances. "I've never said that we don't need to be mindful about Japan's fiscal health," though the priority would be to achieve economic growth, Takaichi said. "JGBs are held overwhelmingly by domestic investors. It's the most stable bond market in the world," she said. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japans-takaichi-vows-immediately-compile-stimulus-plan-2025-10-09/

2025-10-09 14:18

MEXICO CITY, Oct 9 (Reuters) - Mexico's annual inflation rate quickened in September at a pace slightly below expectations, official data showed on Thursday, but remained within the central bank's target range of 3% plus or minus a percentage point. Consumer prices in Latin America's second-largest economy rose 3.76% in the year through September, according to national statistics agency INEGI, below the 3.79% increase forecast by economists in a Reuters poll. Consumer prices rose 3.57% in the previous month. Sign up here. The inflation rate remained within the central bank's target range for the third month in a row, bolstering expectations that policymakers would continue to cut interest rates. "Current conditions support our expectation of a Banxico benchmark rate of 7.00% at year-end and 6.50% in 2026," analysts at the brokerage of local bank Banorte said in a note. Mexico's central bank, also known as Banxico, lowered borrowing costs last month for the 10th consecutive time, with its key interest rate reaching its lowest level since 2022 at 7.5%. Consumer prices rose 0.23% in September on a monthly basis, according to non-seasonally adjusted figures, slightly below market forecasts. "The monthly increase was mainly due to the sharp seasonal rise in education prices, which recorded the largest monthly increase since 2008," Citi's Banamex said in a note. Meanwhile, the closely watched core index, which strips out some volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.33%, compared with expectations of a 0.32% increase. Sticky core inflation continues to be a concern that could shape future Banxico decisions, according to analysts, while policymakers also closely monitor ongoing global trade tensions and sluggish economic growth in the Latin American country. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/mexicos-annual-inflation-rises-september-remains-within-target-range-2025-10-09/