2026-01-29 06:02

MUMBAI, Jan 29 (Reuters) - India's gold demand is likely to fall in 2026 following a drop of 11% last year, as a surge in prices dampens jewellery sales and offsets an uptick in investment buying, the World Gold Council (WGC) said on Thursday. Demand for gold could stand between 600 metric tons and 700 metric tons, compared to 710.9 tons last year, which was the lowest in five years, Sachin Jain, chief executive of the WGC's Indian operations, told Reuters. Sign up here. Jewellery buyers prefer stable prices of gold, but the volatile rising prices of recent months have far outstripped consumer budgets, Jain said. "Inflow into exchange-traded funds(ETFs) will continue to grow," he said. "The stock market hasn't performed very well in 2025, so investors are looking for better returns from gold." Inflows into gold ETFs jumped 283% in 2025 from a year earlier to a record 429.6 billion rupees ($4.67 billion). Domestic gold prices surged 76.5% in 2025, while India's benchmark Nifty 50 (.NSEI) , opens new tab has risen 10.5% in 2025. Jewellery demand in 2025 fell 24% from a year earlier to 430.5 metric tons, its lowest in nearly three decades except for 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic distorted figures, the WGC said in a report published on Thursday. By contrast, investment demand rose 17% in 2025 to 280.4 tons, its highest since 2013, the WGC said. Investment demand accounted for a record roughly 40% of India's total gold consumption in 2025, up from a usual share of about a quarter. "Equities may stay subdued and less attractive amid high valuations, tariffs, and foreign outflows," the WGC said. "A gradual shift from jewellery to pure investment demand should continue to support bars and coins." Higher gold prices have historically spurred Indians to sell jewellery and coins, in a category called scrap supplies. In 2025, however, such scrap supplies fell 19% from a year earlier to 92.7 tonnes, as expectations of further price gains persisted despite bullion hitting fresh record highs almost weekly, the WGC said. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indias-gold-demand-fall-2026-jewellery-slump-offsets-investment-rise-2026-01-29/

2026-01-29 05:58

Fed signals prolonged wait before any additional rate cut Euro strength back in ECB spotlight as rate outlook shifts Monetary and fiscal policy remain key for yen despite intervention risk Jan 29 (Reuters) - The dollar edged up on Thursday but remained near multi-year lows, with a mildly hawkish Federal Reserve providing little support to the currency as worries over U.S. policy kept weighing on sentiment. The greenback ended last week with its biggest fall since last April as investors have grown increasingly nervous about their exposure to U.S. assets, amid concerns about the U.S. policy over Greenland. Sign up here. Trump said on Tuesday the value of the dollar was "great", when asked whether he thought it had declined too much, adding to pressure on the U.S. currency which hit a four-year low. The greenback turned higher, breaking a four‑day run of losses, on Wednesday after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reaffirmed the U.S.' preference for a strong currency, but failed to keep momentum on Thursday. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signalled a prolonged wait before any further reductions in borrowing costs, and some economists say the U.S. economy shows little need for additional policy easing. "While the outlook remains uncertain, particularly given the appointment of a new Fed Chair in coming months, our baseline remains that the rate cutting cycle is complete, as labour improvement lies ahead," said David Doyle, head of economics at Macquarie Group. "We see the next move as a hike, potentially occurring in the fourth quarter of 2026." The dollar's performance will hinge crucially on how issues around Fed independence play out, including a U.S. Supreme Court ruling on Trump's bid to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar was up 0.1% at 96.33 , near Tuesday's four-year low of 95.566. EURO BACK IN THE ECB SPOTLIGHT The euro , which broke above the key $1.20 level on the back of the dollar's decline, traded just below that at $1.1948 after European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers flagged growing concerns over the deflationary effect of its quick appreciation. "Although the euro/dollar stayed well above the ECB’s base scenario last year without triggering strong disinflation risk, trade uncertainty persists," said Geoff Yu, EMEA macro strategist at BNY. Economists flagged that the strength of the euro could amplify the deflationary effect of China’s export machine and jolt the ECB out of its "good place" and into more interest rate cuts. "Forecasts may change, the December staff projections indicate that a euro/dollar at 1.25 would clearly breach the option-implied density range – that is, a full overshoot and potentially enough to trigger a change in guidance," said Geoff Yu, EMEA macro strategist at BNY. ECB board member Isabel Schnabel reiterated on Wednesday monetary policy was in a 'good place' and interest rates are expected to remain at their current levels for an extended period while financial markets are pricing steady rates through early 2027. Meanwhile, some strategists flagged that the usual euro/dollar–rate‑differential correlation has collapsed after Trump took office, and warned that even an ECB rate cut could do little to shift a market increasingly driven by macro and geopolitical risks rather than relative policy rates. JAPAN'S FISCAL POLICY STILL IN FOCUS The dollar slide has provided some reprieve for the ailing yen , which was flat at 153.40 per dollar on Thursday. The yen has tracked around the 152 to 154 per dollar range for most of this week thanks to talk of rate checks from the U.S. and Japan last week - a move often seen as a precursor to intervention. Goldman Sachs said in a note that the prospect of coordinated action by Japan’s Ministry of Finance and the U.S. Treasury should curb near‑term downside pressure on the yen, but warned the impact would only last if backed by disinflation‑friendly fundamentals such as quicker Bank of Japan tightening or fiscal restraint. The Australian dollar , which has drawn additional support from bets of a rate hike at home as soon as next week, scaled a three-year peak and was last roughly unchanged at $0.7038. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/dollar-whipped-markets-wary-mounting-risks-2026-01-29/

2026-01-29 05:43

Rupee falls to record low of nearly 92/USD Central bank likely stepped in to curb fall - traders Persistent equity outflows, steep U.S. tariffs drag INR MUMBAI, Jan 29 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee hit an all-time low on Thursday, as continued weakness in foreign capital flows and a rush to hedge against further depreciation overshadowed impulses from a buoyant domestic economy. The rupee declined to 91.9850 per dollar, eclipsing its previous all-time low of 91.9650 hit last week. Sign up here. The currency has declined 2% so far this year and nearly 5% since U.S. President Donald Trump imposed steep tariffs on India's merchandise exports in August. That's even as India's GDP grew 8.2% in the quarter ended September 30, according to official data. "While we anticipate current elevated US tariffs on Indian exports to eventually be lowered, the delay in the meantime remains a drag on India's external balances," analysts at Goldman Sachs said in a note. The firm expects the rupee to fall to 94 per dollar in the next 12 months. The Reserve Bank of India likely intervened before the local spot market opened on Thursday, traders said. The intervention was likely intended to slow the fall as the rupee approached the psychologically important 92 level, a trader at a foreign bank said. The rupee has declined to near 92 levels after breaking past 91 for the first time only six trading sessions earlier. The central bank has maintained it does not target any level or band on the currency and only steps in to curb excessive volatility. PERSISTENT PAIN Besides steep U.S. tariffs, chunky foreign portfolio outflows, a rise in bullion imports and corporate anxiety over the rupee's fortunes driving hedging activity have kept the currency under pressure even as India continues to be the world's fastest growing major economy, recently closing a free trade deal with the European Union. Since the tariffs came into effect, the rupee has declined 7.5% each against the euro and the Chinese yuan too. On a trade-weighted basis, the rupee's real effective exchange rate stood at 95.3 in December, the lowest in a decade, according to central bank data. "RBI is more comfortable allowing flexibility in the INR and will likely replenish FX reserves on USD/INR dips, which should limit INR appreciation," analysts at Goldman Sachs said. THROES OF A TRILEMMA Converging headwinds have left the Indian currency increasingly reliant on the Reserve Bank of India's market interventions. Data shows that the central bank net sold over $21 billion in October and November last year, the most recent months for which data is available. Analysts and traders say dollar sales have continued, but efforts to support the rupee have strained domestic debt markets, as the associated withdrawal of banking system liquidity pushes bond yields higher. A persistent rise in bond yields and concurrent pressure on the currency pose a so-called monetary trilemma for the central bank, which throws up trade-offs between supporting the currency, anchoring borrowing costs and allowing unfettered capital movement. The central bank has sought to address this by conducting open market bond purchases and dollar-rupee buy/sell swaps, another round of which is slated for next month. "Liquidity conditions will remain challenging owing to a likely persistent balance of payments deficit, slower pace of general government fiscal consolidation, steady growth in currency in circulation and recovering credit demand," according to analysts at ANZ. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/rupee-hits-record-low-outflows-importer-anxiety-overshadow-buoyant-economy-2026-01-29/

2026-01-29 05:31

Jan 29 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole. Who knew building AI would cost so much. Results from Microsoft (MSFT.O) , opens new tab and Meta (META.O) , opens new tab showed truly nose-bleeding amounts being spent on capex, with the former splashing out almost $38 billion in the quarter, up two-thirds on the previous year. Meta boosted its capital spending plans ‌for this year by 73% to a range between $115 billion and $135 billion. Sign up here. Yet investors reacted very differently to those plans, knocking $240 billion off Microsoft's market value while lifting Meta by $140 billion. The Microsoft drop was more than the entire capitalisation of Citigroup, but then banks are so last-century. Seems Meta's upgrade to its earnings outlook really wowed investors, while the Redmond-based giant struggled to placate concerns ‌that costs would ultimately outstrip profit growth. Still, one company's costs are another's revenues as shown by a trebling in chip-maker Samsung Electronics' (005930.KS) , opens new tab operating profits. Memory chips used to be a boring part of the market, until there weren't enough to go around. Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting has also been called boring, though Chair Jerome Powell sounded pretty chipper ‍in his presser. The economy was on a "solid footing" he said several times, with a "clearly improving outlook". There was "broad support" on the committee for holding rates steady, apart from the two that voted for a cut of course. The Fed had already done a lot of "normalising" on rates, ⁠he added, and policy was now only "somewhat restrictive", or even "loosely neutral". Markets took that as confirmation an April cut ‍was off the table, with June staying at 61% in part because investors assume President Trump will have found a more dovish replacement ‌as ‌chair by then. Powell, though, would not be drawn on whether he would step down as a Fed governor in May, or stay on until 2028. One reporter wondered why he would want to leave at all given threats to Fed independence, but Powell merely smiled. Over in currencies, the dollar still looked vulnerable despite Treasury Secretary Bessent insisting the U.S. still has a "strong ⁠dollar" policy, no matter what ⁠Trump might say. More meaningful might be the murmurings from EU and ECB officials about the euro's rise on the dollar being harmful to exports and a downside risk for inflation. Actual intervention from the staid ECB seems highly unlikely, but the Swiss central bank has more form and the flight from ‍the dollar is pushing the franc up broadly, including against the euro. Indeed, the franc has broken below huge chart support that must have the Swiss worried. Intervention by the SNB can be messy for markets as it usually sells francs for euros, and then spreads some of those euros out among dollars, sterling etc, causing cross-currents in a range ‍of currencies. Key developments that could influence markets on Thursday: - Euro zone consumer confidence, business sentiment for January - Riksbank policy meeting, ECB board member Piero Cipollone speaks - U.S. November trade data, weekly jobless claims https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-view-europe-2026-01-29/

2026-01-29 04:45

European stocks rise 0.5% Earnings optimism buoys tech shares, Apple results awaited Gold and silver hit record highs Dollar weakens despite US and European officials' support LONDON, Jan 29 (Reuters) - World stocks gained on Thursday as investors' optimism over earnings remained robust ahead of Apple's results, while gold blazed to a record high for the ninth straight session and oil prices rose on U.S.-Iran tensions. The Euro STOXX 600 (.STOXX) , opens new tab gained 0.5% on the higher ‌oil and precious metal prices, with indexes in Britain (.FTSE) , opens new tab, Spain (.IBEX) , opens new tab and France (.CAC) , opens new tab all making gains. German shares (.GDAX) , opens new tab fell 0.9%, however. The euro zone's biggest economy on Wednesday. Sign up here. Markets have been counting on earnings to keep equities in vogue as prospects for U.S. rate cuts before the summer fade. On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged as was widely expected, while Chair Jerome Powell talked of a "clearly improving" economic outlook and broad support on the committee as reasons ‌for a pause. Powell would not be drawn on whether he would remain as a Fed governor after he steps down as chair in May, given President Donald Trump's efforts to pressure the Fed into more aggressive rate cuts. Investors reacted by cutting the chance of another cut by April to 26%, with June seen as the next likely window. Deutsche Bank analysts wrote that its economists "see the Powell-led Fed as having now delivered its ‍last rate cut," adding that "they think risks around their expectation of one rate cut this year in September have become more balanced." On Wall Street, Apple (AAPL.O) , opens new tab results are in focus, with JPMorgan expecting earnings to beat consensus forecasts, driven by stronger iPhone 17 demand and slower growth in expenses. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures added around 0.2% each, with disappointment ⁠over Microsoft (MSFT.O) , opens new tab results tempered by strong guidance from Meta (META.O) , opens new tab. The rush into precious metals continued. Gold added 2.2%, earlier hitting a record $5,594.82 an ounce . Its ‍gains for this month alone now stand at around 28%. Silver also benefited, topping $120. That helped Europe's basic resources index (.SXPP) , opens new tab rise 3% to its highest since May 2008. Oil prices ‌hit a ‌four-month high as Trump warned Iran of possible attacks if it did not make a deal on nuclear weapons. Brent added 2.5% to $70.11 a barrel, while U.S. crude rose 2.6% to $64.83 per barrel. Earlier, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) , opens new tab was little changed. But South Korea stocks (.KS11) , opens new tab rose 0.6%, bringing gains for January so far to a thumping 23%. The tech-heavy Taiwan market (.TWII) , opens new tab is up almost 13% in the same time period. AI CAPEX VS EARNINGS On Wednesday, Microsoft's shares ⁠slid 6.5% over concerns its capital ⁠expenditure would fail to make sufficient returns to justify its high valuation. Meta lifted its outlook for revenues and capex for 2026, sending its shares up 8% after hours and adding around $140 billion to its market value. "A common theme so far from META and MSFT is the larger-than-expected capex spending, indicating the upward momentum for AI spending," noted analysts at JPMorgan. The difference, they ‍said, was Meta also raised its 2026 revenue outlook to well above market expectations. In currency markets, the dollar was on the defensive as investors hedged against U.S. policy uncertainty and the country's ever-growing debt mountain. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar was at 96.36 , languishing near Tuesday's four-year low of 95.57. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent insisted the administration still favoured a "strong dollar" policy. European leaders voiced concerns at the dollar's slide, while officials at the European Central Bank suggested a ‍further steep rise in the euro could warrant interest rate cuts. The euro added another 0.2% to $1.1979 , while the dollar lost 0.3% on the Swiss franc to 0.7658 . It also dipped 0.3% on the Japanese yen to 153.03 . https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-01-29/

2026-01-29 03:46

MUMBAI, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Indian gold and silver futures jumped 6% to record highs in early trade on Thursday, tracking gains in overseas prices and supported by a slide in the rupee to an almost all-time low, dealers said. Domestic gold futures jumped 6% to a record 175,869 rupees per 10 grams in early trade, while silver futures jumped 6% to an all-time high of 407,456 rupees per kg. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indian-gold-silver-extend-rally-record-highs-2026-01-29/