2025-10-03 15:28

DAKAR, Oct 3 - The International Monetary Fund is not planning to vote on Friday on a debt misreporting waiver that would let Senegal access fresh cash, despite the subject being discussed at a board meeting, two sources close to the matter told Reuters. The country has been expecting the waiver since May, but it has yet to complete certain criteria needed for a formal board vote, the sources said. Sign up here. The IMF froze Senegal's previous $1.8 billion lending programme after the country's then-newly elected leaders uncovered billions in unreported debt - a sum that has since ballooned to more than $11 billion. Senegal hopes for a waiver to allow the IMF to disburse new money under a new programme. Both sources said that discussions on a waiver were going well, and the waiver was likely to come this year. But a formal board meeting is needed to sign off on it and still has not been scheduled. An IMF spokesperson said Friday's meeting was "intended to update Executive Directors on Senegal’s situation and on the next steps of engagement, including the imminent launch of discussions on a new Fund-supported programme." "As part of the efforts to reinforce governance and transparency, the authorities have committed to certifying the final debt figures, investigating public-financial-management shortcomings, and tracing transactions related to the misreporting in coordination with the judiciary." A spokesperson for Senegal's finance ministry declined to comment. The IMF said on Thursday it would begin formal negotiations with Senegal over a new lending programme this month. But no further lending is possible until the misreporting case is resolved, and without a waiver, Senegal could be forced to repay money from the previous programme. The debt misreporting is one of the largest ever uncovered during an active IMF monitoring programme, and the Fund has a list of measures that Senegal must take before it brings the waiver to the board. Among them is agreeing the terms of a new technical assistance audit focused on public financial management, the sources said, though that audit itself does not need to be completed before the IMF grants the waiver. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/senegals-imf-waiver-clear-more-cash-not-coming-friday-meeting-sources-2025-10-03/

2025-10-03 14:27

Oct 3 (Reuters) - Bank of America Global Research on Friday pulled forward its forecast for the next Federal Reserve interest rate cut to October from December, citing signs of a softening labor market. It remains the only major Wall Street brokerage forecasting just one more 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed this year, while others such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley expect cuts at both of the Fed's upcoming meetings. Sign up here. BofA warned there is a risk the Fed could "over-ease." The U.S. government shutdown, which began on Wednesday, has disrupted the release of key economic data that the Fed relies on to evaluate whether conditions warrant a rate cut. The release of the closely watched monthly jobs report, originally scheduled for Friday, has been delayed due to the government shutdown, leaving investors to interpret alternative indicators that point to a cooling labor market and reinforce expectations of a rate cut. BofA says the soft trend in labor data is already strong enough to justify a rate cut, regardless of whether the NFP report is available or not before Fed's October meeting. Investors are pricing in a 98% probability of a 25-basis-point rate reduction in October and a 90% likelihood of another similar cut in December, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. https://www.reuters.com/business/bofa-global-research-moves-fed-rate-cut-forecast-october-december-2025-10-03/

2025-10-03 13:53

Goolsbee cautious on rate cuts amid persistent services inflation Fed cut rates last month, markets expect two more reductions Government shutdown halts key economic data reports Oct 3 (Reuters) - Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee on Friday said he was hesitant to commit to a series of interest rate cuts with inflation still running above the central bank's 2% target, echoing the concerns of several of his peers about the persistence of inflation for services. The Fed, Goolsbee said in an appearance on CNBC, was in "a bit of a sticky spot" with recent data showing an upswing in services inflation while payroll job creation has been weakening. Sign up here. "You're getting deterioration of both sides of the mandate at the same time," he said. "If the inflation looks like it's going to be transitory - and I say that word with some fear - then I think the employment side of the mandate would be dominant. But ... you see this uptick in inflation and particularly the uptick in services inflation, which is probably not coming from tariffs. I'm a little wary about front-loading too many rate cuts and just counting on the inflation going away." The Fed cut rates last month by a quarter of a percentage point to a range of 4.00% to 4.25%, and rate futures markets are positioned for two more such reductions at the central bank's remaining two meetings this year. Nonetheless, several of the Fed's regional Reserve Bank presidents have, like Goolsbee, been voicing concern about inflation's persistence and have been reluctant to endorse expectations for a series of rate cuts ahead. Goolsbee appeared at the time when ordinarily the Bureau of Labor Statistics would have released its monthly report on the U.S. employment situation, but publication has been suspended because of the federal government shutdown that began on Wednesday. All benchmark economic data reports from the BLS, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau have been put on hold during the closure. Job growth has been slowing through the year, in large part because President Donald Trump's crackdown on immigration has stymied the growth of the workforce, but there has been little evidence so far of widespread layoffs and while the unemployment rate has edged up, it remains at a historically low level. The Chicago Fed recently launched a model that estimates the unemployment rate, and its latest update on Thursday showed the jobless rate in September was likely unchanged at 4.3%. "Thus far, it continues to point to a pretty stable labor market, in my view," Goolsbee said. https://www.reuters.com/business/feds-goolsbee-little-wary-front-loading-too-many-rate-cuts-cnbc-2025-10-03/

2025-10-03 13:00

WASHINGTON, Oct 3 (Reuters) - The U.S. government has put $2.1 billion in Chicago infrastructure projects on hold, Office of Management and Budget Director Russ Vought said on Friday, in another jab at a Democratic-led city during the government shutdown. Vought said $2.1 billion for major Chicago subway projects -- the Red Line Extension and the Red and Purple Modernization Project "have been put on hold to ensure funding is not flowing via race-based contracting." Sign up here. On Wednesday, Vought said the administration of President Donald Trump had frozen $18 billion for major transit projects in New York, including the Hudson Tunnel and the Second Avenue Subway, citing the same issue. The Trump administration's Energy Department on Wednesday said it would cancel nearly $8 billion for hundreds of energy projects in 16 Democratic-led states, including California and New York. The outgoing administration of former president Joe Biden finalized a nearly $2 billion award in its final days to help extend the Red Line 5.5 miles to connect Chicago Far South Side to the L system. The Biden administration said the project would "address inequalities in access and economic investment in predominantly Black and disadvantaged neighborhoods." Illinois Governor JB Pritzker and the Chicago Transit Authority, which handles more than 300 million passengers yearly and is the third largest U.S. transit agency, did not immediately comment. USDOT has previously threatened transit funding for New York, Chicago and Boston , opens new tab on a number of grounds. Trump on Thursday vowed to cut "Democrat Agencies," as he looks to inflict pain on his political opposition. Trump has repeatedly vowed to send National Guard troops to police Chicago. In recent days, there have been growing scenes of conflict involving federal immigration agents in Chicago and its suburbs. Vought cited a new rule from the Transportation Department that took effect Wednesday to review whether any small-business contractors are engaged in improper diversity initiatives. This is one of a series of efforts intended to pressure Democratic lawmakers in Congress over the partial government shutdown that began just after midnight Wednesday. USDOT said it would not process a $300 million reimbursement due for the subway project pending the review, which it said was hampered by the government shutdown. The $17.2 billion Hudson River tunnel project, which received more than $11 billion in federal grants, involves repairs to an existing tunnel, and the building of a new one for passenger railroad Amtrak and commuter lines between New Jersey and Manhattan. Any failure of the current Hudson tunnel, which was heavily damaged by 2012's Hurricane Sandy, would hobble commuting in the metropolitan area that produces 10% of the country's economic output. https://www.reuters.com/world/white-house-freezes-21-billion-chicago-projects-vought-says-2025-10-03/

2025-10-03 12:48

DUBAI, Oct 3 (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia's path to fiscal consolidation faces risks, Fitch Ratings said on Friday, as lower oil prices and heavy spending commitments tied to the country's Vision 2030 economic transformation plan weigh on the kingdom's finances. The Vision 2030 plan, led by the nearly $1 trillion Public Investment Fund (PIF), aims to reduce the country's reliance on oil and develop more sustainable revenue streams, which requires hundreds of billions of dollars in investment. Sign up here. Fitch Ratings' warning that Saudi's ambitious spending plans face risks follows the Saudi government's 2026 pre-budget statement on Tuesday, which signalled a shift toward tighter fiscal discipline after a sharper-than-expected widening of the 2025 deficit. Saudi, the world's top oil exporter, now forecasts a fiscal shortfall of 5.3% of gross domestic product in 2025, nearly double the 2.3% initially projected, before narrowing to 3.3% in 2026. That compares with an earlier 2025 budget estimate of 2.9% for next year. The deterioration in 2025 was driven by revenue shortfalls and overspending, Fitch said, attributing the revenue miss primarily to weaker oil income. However, it noted non-oil revenues likely remained robust on the back of a strong non-oil economy and conservative budgeting. Flagship projects include NEOM, a massive futuristic urban and industrial development on the Red Sea nearly the size of Belgium. The Saudi government forecasts its revenues will rise 5.1% in 2026 while spending will fall 1.7% versus 2025 projections. Fitch expects fiscal tightening through stable oil revenues, higher non-oil income and modest cuts to current and capital expenditures. Reuters reported in April that falling oil prices were increasing pressure on Saudi Arabia to either rein in spending or raise debt to finance its ambitious agenda. Fitch said the fiscal strain underscored the kingdom's vulnerability to oil market swings, even as it accelerates efforts to build alternative revenue streams. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/saudi-faces-rising-fiscal-risks-amid-mounting-spending-oil-prices-dip-fitch-says-2025-10-03/

2025-10-03 12:32

JAKARTA, Oct 3 (Reuters) - Indonesia's shrimp industry suffered a 30-35% drop in processing absorption after a radioactive contamination was detected in a batch of shrimp shipped to the U.S. in August, the country's shrimp farmers' association said on Friday. The shrimp was processed at an industrial estate near Jakarta that was later found to be contaminated with of Cesium 137 and the Southeast Asian nation's nuclear agency is seeking to pinpoint the size of the area affected. Sign up here. Indonesia is the world's fifth largest shrimp exporter, accounting for 6% of global exports. About two-thirds of its exports go to the United States. While the radioactive finding was in just one shrimp consignment from one company, PT Bahari Makmur Sejati (BMS), U.S. and other foreign buyers are now waiting to determine whether all shrimp from Indonesia is safe, said Andi Tamsil, the head of Indonesia's shrimp farmers' association. Prices have fallen by up to 35% in several regions, he said. "Since BMS was added to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's red list, shrimp absorption from farmers has decreased by around 30%-35%," Tamsil told Reuters. In 2024, Indonesia exported about 215,000 tonnes of shrimp, valued at about $1.7 billion, according to government data. The U.S. is the main market for Indonesian shrimp, accounting for 63.7% of the total exports, followed by Japan. "If this continues, millions of households that depend on this industry from upstream to downstream are at risk of losing their jobs," Tamsil said. The shrimp industry had become the victim of negligence and the incident had shaken public confidence, he added. "This fatal mistake has caused the U.S. to question the safety of our food." Indonesia established a task force after the U.S. FDA issued an advisory to American consumers, distributors and sellers not to eat, sell or serve frozen shrimp imported by BMS, doing business as BMS Foods, after their products were associated with Cesium 137 contamination. So far, the U.S. FDA has listed , opens new tab 10 brands associated with BMS. Cesium 137 is present in the environment mainly from past nuclear testing or accidents, like Chernobyl and Fukushima, according to the FDA's website. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/indonesias-shrimp-industry-suffers-after-radioactive-case-association-says-2025-10-03/