2025-10-03 10:04

No Labor Department jobs report Friday due to the government shutdown Wall Street routine upended; TV regulars and market commentators get a break Payrolls is seen as "the king of the numbers," making its absence particularly notable Some traders may close positions early if the data drought extends past mid‑October, citing unacceptable risk NEW YORK, Oct 3 (Reuters) - The release of U.S. jobs data typically has traders and investors glued to their screens at 8:30 am waiting for the all-important numbers. This Friday, however, is giving some a sudden surplus of free time along with the problem of trying to piece together the economic jigsaw puzzle from other sources. With the U.S. government shutting down much of its operations on Wednesday as deep partisan divisions prevented Congress and the White House from reaching a funding deal, the U.S. Labor Department will suspend economic data releases, including the closely watched monthly employment report, due Friday. Sign up here. Cue an unusual quiet on trading floors and in investment firms. "Friday does have all the makings of a rather long lunch somewhere now," quipped Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone in London. For him, the report would normally land in the afternoon. The data disruption will upend the usual Friday routine for many on Wall Street. "Usually economists and strategists are dialed in at 8:30 in the morning; now you can potentially get some other work done," Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at Manulife John Hancock Investments, said. "It'll be nice to have a Friday morning where your eye's not twitching waiting minutes until that jobs report hits," Miskin said. PAYROLL DATA CONSIDERED 'THE KING OF THE NUMBERS' Still, the timing is awkward. Investors are laser-focused on the labor market for clues to how the Federal Reserve's newly-resumed rate cutting efforts might unfold. It also comes not long after a market-shocking weak scorecard on U.S. jobs prompted President Donald Trump to fire a top Labor Department official. "A few weeks ago we were questioning the accuracy of the data, and now all of a sudden we can't live without it," Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Investment Management, said. It's not just trading desks that will miss the familiar ritual. Social media usually lights up with #NFP and #NFPguessposts, a reference to the closely watched nonfarm payrolls figure. Those posts can number 10,000 to 50,000, in the 24 hours around the release, with activity spiking on big surprises, according to Grok, an AI chatbot on X. For Interactive Brokers Chief Strategist Steve Sosnick, a frequent guest on financial news shows breaking down the U.S. jobs report, Friday will be different. "I'll just sleep in," he joked about his plans for Friday. For others, like James Cordier, head trader at Alternative Options, far from affording extra sleep, the lack of data can spell sleepless nights, he said. Should the data drought last beyond mid October, Cordier, who trades commodities, might have to prematurely close trades because the risk of keeping them in place in the absence of data is too great. Interactive Brokers' Sosnick said missing out on the payrolls update was particularly problematic. "It is really sort of the king of the numbers, so to speak. The king, I guess, takes a vacation now." The data disruption, something that hasn't happened since the 2013 government shutdown delayed the employment report by a couple of weeks, could even make traders more jumpy. "Investors will fill the informational void left by the government shutdown with new trading narratives based on incomplete and misleading private-sector data releases, unfounded anecdotes, and flimsy rumors," Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist with payments company Corpay in Toronto, said "The risk of overreaction will grow." https://www.reuters.com/business/payroll-data-ice-gives-wall-street-newfound-free-time-big-problem-reading-2025-10-03/

2025-10-03 09:10

Oct 6 (Reuters) - The U.S. government has shut down, but that hasn't prevented stocks from hitting more record highs, fully confident that bullish rate cuts will keep momentum going. The one hitch is a complete lack of visibility when it comes to what is actually happening in the economy right now. Here's your weekahead from Alden Bentley in New York, Rocky Swift in Tokyo and Alun John, Dhara Ranasinghe and Amanda Cooper in London. Sign up here. 1/ DOLLAR BEARS SHARPEN THEIR CLAWS The dollar starts this final quarter of 2025 in fairly decent shape. Having fallen in the first two quarters, as U.S. exceptionalism came under fire, the greenback ended Q3 with a 1% gain against major rivals . It's still down 10% so far this year, although its stabilisation has bought some calm to the almost $10 trillion-a-day FX markets. On the plus side, immediate threats to Federal Reserve independence - a potential source of dollar stress - have abated for now. On the negative, labour market weakness adds to Fed rate-cuts bets. Dollar bears may not hibernate for long - especially if a U.S. government shutdown is lengthy. The yen, in particular, looks favourable - say FX experts - while the euro could still hit that $1.20 milestone it came so close to last month. 2/ WHO NEEDS DATA? This week's U.S. data calendar is light, so further market disruption from the government shutdown should be minimal and the U.S. Treasury will hold a normal auction of notes and bonds. The market will likely make do without Tuesday's U.S. International Trade report, and instead will focus on Friday's private University of Michigan preliminary October sentiment index. The Treasury sells $58 billion in three-year notes on Tuesday, $39 billion of the 10-year note Wednesday and $22 billion in 30-year bonds on Thursday. The bond market can't yet compute possible fiscal implications of an indefinite furloughing of federal workers. But with the benchmark 10-year yield above 4%, demand could remain solid. An early taste of third-quarter results comes with Delta Airlines (DAL.N) , opens new tab and Levi Strauss (LEVI.N) , opens new tab among others on Thursday, before the earnings parade kicks off with Wall Street's biggest banks next week. 3/ SHOT IN THE ARM Battered global pharmaceutical stocks got a boost from the deal between Pfizer and the U.S. to lower prescription drug prices in the Medicaid programme in exchange for tariff relief. U.S. President Donald Trump had taken aim at the sector over high U.S. medicine prices, sending drugmaker shares to multi-decade lows. But investors now bet the more benign agreement will open the door for more deals. U.S. healthcare stocks (.SPXHC) , opens new tab were up 7% last week, their biggest weekly gain in over three years, while European equivalents rose 9% in their best week since 2008. (.SXDP) , opens new tab Now it's time to wait to see if these deals materialise and justify that optimism. The U.S. has also slapped tariffs on imported timber as well as kitchen cabinets and furniture, while Trump said he would impose a 100% tariff on all films produced overseas that are then sent into the U.S. 4/ BARRELLING ON Oil is struggling under the weight of hefty global supplies that only seem to be getting bigger, while demand cannot seem to keep pace. The International Energy Agency says there could be an implied surplus of over 3 million barrels per day in 2026, compared with an expected excess of 600,000 bpd this year. The OPEC+ group, which includes OPEC and other exporters including Russia, at the weekend agreed to increase output by another 137,000 bpd in November, as it unwinds the curbs on output that it imposed during the pandemic. At around $65 a barrel, crude is worth roughly half what it was when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. The wildcard for forecasters, producers and consumers alike will remain, as always, geopolitics. 5/ DIRECTION DOWN UNDER The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will almost certainly cut rates this week. The question is: by how much? The RBNZ cut rates to a three-year low of 3% in August. Data last month showed New Zealand's economy contracted 0.9% in the second quarter, due to tariff uncertainty and a weak housing market. Money markets have fully priced in a quarter-point cut to 2.75% when the RBNZ meets on October 8, but the chances of a half-point reduction have grown to 43% from about 25% a week ago. Policy divergence between the RBNZ and the Reserve Bank of Australia, which kept rates unchanged in September, could spell further weakness in the kiwi, which is already at a three-year low against its Antipodean counterpart. https://www.reuters.com/business/take-five/global-markets-themes-graphic-2025-10-03/

2025-10-03 07:30

WARSAW, Oct 3 (Reuters) - Polish link with NATO pipeline system will cost 20 billion zlotys ($5.5 billion), defence deputy minister said on Friday after Polish pipeline operator PERN had signed a preliminary deal with the ministry to extend the country's fuel pipelines to connect them with the NATO system. "We are talking about...construction of pipelines over a distance of 300 km...we are talking about one of the largest investments in the security of the Polish state in the last 30 years," Cezary Tomczyk said. Sign up here. ($1 = 3.6317 zlotys) https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/polish-link-with-nato-pipeline-system-cost-20-billion-zlotys-2025-10-03/

2025-10-03 07:28

Russian warships use sonar and jamming equipment, Denmark's defence intelligence agency says Sailed on collision courses with Danish warships, it says Denmark sees Russian actions as hybrid warfare against West Russia denies responsibility for hybrid attacks in Europe NATO strengthens Baltic operations, Sweden expands maritime surveillance COPENHAGEN, Oct 3 (Reuters) - Russian warships have repeatedly sailed on collision courses, aimed weapons at Danish naval vessels and disrupted navigation systems in Denmark's straits that connect the Baltic Sea to the North Sea, its defence intelligence service said on Friday. Such incidents risk unintended escalation, it said. Sign up here. The Baltic region remains on high alert after incidents involving undersea cables, gas pipeline outages, airspace violations and drone sightings since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which increased tensions between Moscow and the West. Denmark, a staunch supporter of Ukraine in its war with Russia, has beefed up its military budget and committed to acquiring long-range precision weapons capable of striking targets inside Russia. RUSSIAN WARSHIPS POINT WEAPONRY AT DANISH HELICOPTERS, DANISH INTELLIGENCE SAYS "We have seen several incidents in the Danish straits, where Danish air force helicopters and naval vessels have been targeted by tracking radars and physically pointed at with weapons from Russian warships," Danish Defence Intelligence Service Director Thomas Ahrenkiel told a press conference. He said Russian warships had sailed on collision courses with Danish vessels during their passage through the straits. Ahrenkiel said a Russian warship has been anchored in Danish waters for over a week, suggesting possible interference from Moscow if Denmark tried to curb movements of Russia's "shadow fleet" of tankers used to circumvent Western sanctions on its oil exports imposed over its war with Ukraine. In May, tensions escalated in the Baltic Sea when Russia deployed a fighter jet during Estonia's interception of a Russian-bound oil tanker suspected of being part of the shadow fleet. The Danish straits, a busy international shipping route, see frequent movement of Russian military vessels that are typically escorted by Denmark's navy. Defence intelligence has also recorded Russian warships sailing through Danish straits with sonar and jamming equipment, according to Ahrenkiel. He said it was "highly probable" that they, on at least one occasion, had jammed signals and caused extensive GPS interference in Denmark. Denmark's intelligence service assesses that Russia is conducting hybrid warfare against Denmark and the broader West. "Russia is using military means, including in an aggressive way, to put pressure on us without crossing the line into armed conflict in a traditional sense," Ahrenkiel said. Moscow has repeatedly denied responsibility for hybrid attacks in Europe. President Vladimir Putin joked on Thursday that he would not fly drones over Denmark anymore and described as "nonsense" the idea that his country would potentially target a NATO member. The White House said on Friday the report of Russian naval provocations against Denmark was a serious matter. "It's something the administration takes very seriously, and we are constantly monitoring it. The National Security Council here at the White House is in constant correspondence with our NATO allies, and the president speaks to many of them as well," White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt told reporters at a briefing. NO DIRECT MILITARY THREAT DESPITE INCIDENTS Despite the incidents, defence intelligence emphasised that there was no direct military threat against Denmark. However, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen last week described recent drone incursions over Danish airports and military installations as a "hybrid attack" on the country. Defence Minister Troels Lund Poulsen said investigations into the incidents were continuing, with no conclusions yet on the identity of the perpetrator. Hybrid threats, which include sabotage, disinformation, espionage and cyberattacks, have been flagged as increasingly aggressive by Western security agencies. NATO has strengthened , opens new tab its Baltic operations in response to the drone incursions. Sweden proposed new legislation on Friday to expand maritime surveillance by its coast guard. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/high-risk-sabotage-against-danish-armed-forces-intelligence-service-says-2025-10-03/

2025-10-03 06:56

No injuries reported from explosion, fire Chevron said the fire had been put out Blaze could affect jet fuel supply to LAX, southern California No evacuations ordered due to fire Oct 3 (Reuters) - Chevron's (CVX.N) , opens new tab 285,000-barrel-per-day El Segundo refinery in southern California had taken multiple units offline on Friday after a large fire erupted in a jet fuel production unit, disrupting supply in the Golden State's isolated energy market. The El Segundo refinery is the second largest in California and Chevron's second-biggest refinery in the United States. The facility supplies a fifth of all motor vehicle fuels and 40% of the jet fuel consumed in southern California. Sign up here. The fire at the facility's jet fuel production unit broke out on Thursday evening. No injuries were reported, and all workers at the refinery were accounted for, Chevron spokesperson Allison Cook said in an email. Chevron on Friday said the fire had been put out. It was not immediately clear what caused the explosion at the facility in the suburb of El Segundo, which supplies jet fuel for Los Angeles International Airport (LAX), located just north of the refinery. "There is no known impact to LAX at this time," Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass said. LAX declined to comment. The fire broke out in the refinery's Isomax 7 unit, which converts mid-distillate fuel oil into jet fuel, two sources said. On Thursday evening, multiple units at the refinery were shut, including the 60,000 barrel per day (bpd) catalytic reformer, 45,000 bpd hydrocracker, and 73,000 bpd fluid catalytic cracker, according to consultancy Wood Mackenzie. The refinery's crude distillation units were still online, two traders said, citing Wood Mackenzie data. AIRLINES HIT MORE THAN DRIVERS On the West Coast, traders were still assessing the extent of damage to the refinery, but early indications pointed to a small increase in motor fuel prices and potentially larger impacts for aviation fuel. Gasoline prices in California, already the highest in the country, are expected to rise five to 15 cents per gallon for now as the refinery's gasoline-producing unit was said to have not been impacted by the fire, said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy. California's nearly 28 million drivers were paying close to $4.70 a gallon for gasoline in the state as of Friday, compared to a national average of under $3.22 a gallon, GasBuddy data showed. However, airlines serving southern California will see much bigger impacts, with price for jet fuel surging by 33 cents a gallon Friday afternoon, De Haan said. California will likely need to pull more jet fuel imports from refiners in South Korea, Taiwan and Japan to make up for the loss of El Segundo's output, Asian trade sources said. Southern California's Long Beach region was receiving around 45,000 to 50,000 bpd of jet fuel imports in recent weeks, and would need to step that up by bringing one more cargo over the next few weeks, a market source said. Fuel prices in California were expected to surge in the months ahead, as Phillips 66 (PSX.N) , opens new tab is winding down operations at its 139,000-bpd Los Angeles-area refinery for permanent closure and Valero's (VLO.N) , opens new tab Benicia refinery is set to close in April 2026. Those two refineries produce roughly 20% of the state's gasoline supply. "In a region that was already expected to see some tightness in supplies after a refinery shutdown this December, the fire could provide support to (fuel prices) in the area and a scramble ahead of the closure," said StoneX analyst Alex Hodes. FIREBALL TURNED THE SKY ORANGE Local officials said no evacuation orders were issued for nearby residents, some of whom live in apartment buildings across the street from the refinery. Residents of Manhattan Beach, located southwest of the refinery, were told to shelter in place until 2 a.m. "Chevron fire department personnel, including emergency responders from the cities of El Segundo and Manhattan Beach are actively responding to an isolated fire inside the Chevron El Segundo Refinery," Cook, the Chevron spokesperson, said on Friday. "All refinery personnel and contractors have been accounted for and there are no injuries," Cook said. Los Angeles residents posted numerous videos of the fire online, saying they were stunned by the noise of the blast. A University of California-San Diego camera captured video of the explosion shortly after 9:30 p.m. PDT (0430 GMT). A fireball from the blaze, along with the refinery's safety flare - triggered by the fire - turned the sky orange over western Los Angeles, pictures showed. Safety flares, which emit a tall plume of flame, are used when refineries cannot process hydrocarbons normally. In addition to Chevron, state and federal safety agencies said they will investigate the fire after the blaze is extinguished. In December 2022, an isolated fire in the refinery was quickly extinguished. In the U.S. so far in 2025, there have been several refinery fire incidents. The refinery's total storage capacity is 12.5 million barrels in about 150 major tanks. The sources said they were not sure how much jet fuel was currently in storage. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/fire-breaks-out-chevrons-refinery-el-segundo-la-times-says-2025-10-03/

2025-10-03 06:32

Global uncertainty may prod firms to cut costs, Ueda says 'Quite significant' uncertainty remains on tariff impact Ueda wants to gather information in talks during IMF meeting Underlying inflation to rise in tandem with actual price moves Yen weakens vs dollar as markets saw remarks as dovish OSAKA, Oct 3 (Reuters) - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said inflation was on track to durably hit the bank's target but warned of global uncertainties that could discourage firms from raising wages, leaving himself a free hand on whether to raise interest rates in October. Ueda reiterated the central bank's resolve to continue raising still low interest rates if the economy and prices move in line with its forecasts. Sign up here. But he said there were various uncertainties surrounding Japan's economic outlook, such as growing signs of labour market weakness in the United States and the expected impact of higher U.S. tariffs on Japanese corporate profits. "If uncertainty regarding overseas economies and trade policies remains high, firms may place stronger emphasis on cost-cutting and may weaken their efforts to reflect price increases in wages," Ueda said in a speech to business leaders in Osaka on Friday. The Japanese yen weakened 0.3% to 147.72 per U.S. dollar after Ueda's comments, as some market players interpreted them as reducing the likelihood of an October rate hike. "There wasn't any clear change in the BOJ's communication that would suggest it was trying to lay the groundwork for an October rate hike," said Shotaro Mori, senior economist at SBI Shinsei Bank, predicting that a hike in December was now more likely than October. The remarks came in the wake of a U.S. government shutdown that began on Wednesday, which is likely to delay the release of key economic data and complicate the BOJ's rate decision. While any delay in U.S. data would be a "serious" problem, the BOJ would scrutinise other available data to make up for the loss, Ueda told a news conference after delivering the speech. Ueda also said he hoped to gather information through talks with policymakers and bankers during the International Monetary Fund (IMF) meeting in Washington later this month, suggesting the gathering's tone on the global outlook could affect the bank's decision on whether to hike in October. "There's quite significant uncertainty remaining on how tariffs could affect global, U.S. and Japanese economies," Ueda said, though adding the BOJ did not have to await all hard data to determine whether risks have been dispelled. NOT BEHIND-THE-CURVE Market players have been closely watching Ueda's comments for any clues on how soon the BOJ will resume a rate-hike cycle that has been paused due to uncertainty over the economic fallout from U.S. tariffs. A hawkish board split at the BOJ's September meeting and calls for a near-term rate hike by a dovish policymaker have led markets to price in over a 60% chance the bank will hike rates to 0.75% from 0.5% at its next policy meeting on October 29-30. Ueda said Japan's economy was weathering the hit from U.S. tariffs so far, with many companies armed with buffers from high profits accumulated in the past. He also said underlying inflation, or the broad price trend excluding one-off factors, will accelerate toward the BOJ's target - removing earlier reference it will briefly stall in a nod to recent mounting pressure from rising food costs. "Given intensifying labour shortages and rising medium- to long-term inflation expectations, underlying inflation is likely to accelerate in tandem with actual inflation," Ueda said. The remark compared with language in the BOJ's policy statement in September, which said underlying inflation "will be sluggish due to slowing growth, before increasing gradually." While rises in food costs will moderate, the pace of slowdown may be smaller than initially thought and could push up underlying inflation, Ueda told the news conference. "I don't think the risk is high but if so, it requires attention," Ueda said on the possibility of the BOJ being behind the curve in addressing the risk of too-high inflation. The BOJ has justified going slow on rate hikes on the view underlying inflation, or price rises driven by domestic demand as measured by various indicators, below its 2% target. The BOJ ended a massive, decade-long stimulus programme last year and raised rates to 0.5% in January, on the view that Japan was on the cusp of durably hitting its inflation target. While consumer inflation has exceeded 2% for more than three years, Ueda has stressed the need to tread cautiously in raising borrowing costs to ensure price rises are driven by wage gains and robust domestic demand. https://www.reuters.com/business/bojs-ueda-warns-global-uncertainty-impact-wage-outlook-2025-10-03/