2025-10-03 06:32

Gold up over 2% so far this week Traders price in 25-bp Fed rate cut this month Government shutdown delaying jobs, other data Oct 3 (Reuters) - Gold prices held steady on Friday, poised for a seventh consecutive weekly rise, as expectations of further U.S. interest rate cuts and concerns over the economic impact of a prolonged government shutdown lent support. Spot gold rose 0.1% to $3,861.04 per ounce by 1128 GMT, after hitting a record high of $3,896.49 on Thursday. The bullion has gained 2.7% so far this week. Sign up here. U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose 0.4% to $3,884.30 per ounce. The prolonged U.S. government shutdown, now in its third day as of Friday, has delayed key economic data, including the non-farm payrolls report scheduled for release on Friday. Alternate data from public and private sources, showed the U.S. job market likely remained stalled in September with sluggish hiring and no change in unemployment rates. The data suggests Fed should cut rates, "and as we anticipate further rate cuts, this should support the gold price further over the coming months, looking for the yellow metal to breach the $4,000/oz mark by the end of this year," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. Investors are pricing in a 97% probability of a 25-basis-point rate reduction in October and an 88% likelihood of another similar cut in December, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan said the Fed appropriately took out some insurance against any sharp deterioration in the labour market with its rate cut last month, but needed to be "cautious". Gold, often used as a safe store of value during times of political and financial uncertainty, thrives in a low-interest-rate environment. Bullion has risen 47% so far this year. Meanwhile, physical gold demand in India rose this week despite record high prices, while Chinese markets were closed for a holiday. Elsewhere, spot silver climbed 1.1% to $47.46 per ounce, platinum rose 0.5% to $1,576.17 and palladium gained 1.2% to $1,255.43. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-set-seventh-weekly-rise-us-rate-cut-hopes-government-shutdown-2025-10-03/

2025-10-03 06:11

JAKARTA, Oct 3 (Reuters) - Indonesia's private fuel retailers are facing gasoline shortages due to a jump in demand as consumers shift away from state-owned Pertamina following concerns over its fuel quality and as the government capped imports. Many fuel stations operated by companies such as Shell, BP, and others have run out of gasoline and are left selling only diesel, frustrating customers. Sign up here. WHY DID FUEL DEMAND AT PRIVATE RETAILERS SURGE? Indonesia's Attorney General in February named former executives of Pertamina suspects in a corruption probe, alleging that they issued instructions to blend lower-grade gasoline into its 92-octane grade, which could cause problems for vehicle engines. The state energy firm has denied this and pledged to improve transparency. Still, many consumers switched to private retailers. The shift was also driven by Pertamina's gradual move starting late last year requiring that customers register for a QR code to buy subsidised petrol, the energy ministry said in a parliamentary hearing on Wednesday. Only Pertamina sells subsidised gasoline in Indonesia. Daily sales volume of Pertamina's subsidised 90-octane gasoline dropped by 5% this year through July, while industry-wide sales of non-subsidised grades rose 19%, the ministry data showed. The ministry expects Pertamina's sales of non-subsidised gasoline to increase 14% to 7 million kilolitres (44 million barrels) this year, while sales by private companies are expected to surge 91% to 1.35 million kilolitres. Pertamina's market share of unsubsidised gasoline in January-July this year dropped to 85%, from 89% in 2024, the ministry said. WHY DON'T PRIVATE RETAILERS IMPORT MORE FUEL? In June, Shell and BP-AKR, a joint venture that operates BP stations, requested additional gasoline import quotas after demand surged, company executives told a parliamentary committee this week. On July 17, Indonesia's energy ministry issued a letter to the country's five private gasoline retailers stating that their 2025 gasoline imports were capped at 10% above what each sold last year. The limit was intended to maintain a healthy commodity balance sheet, said Laode Sulaeman, a senior official at the energy ministry. CAN PRIVATE RETAILERS IMPORT THROUGH PERTAMINA? The government last month instructed private companies to import through Pertamina, which still has 6.81 million kilolitres of unused import quota for 2025, according to Laode. Pertamina has agreed to import base fuel, which has not been dyed or mixed with additives, for the private companies, with the first such cargo, containing 100,000 barrels, intended for private companies arriving last week. WHAT'S HOLDING PRIVATE RETAILERS BACK FROM BUYING BASE FUEL FROM PERTAMINA? There have been some obstacles preventing the retailers from buying fuel from Pertamina. Pertamina said last week that retailer Vivo, an affiliate of Vitol, agreed to buy 40,000 barrels of the first import cargo. However, the deal fell through as the fuel contained ethanol, said Achmad Muchtasyar, an executive at Pertamina Patra Niaga, the company's trading arm, at the hearing this week. BP-AKR, which also sought to buy a portion of 100,000-barrel shipment, asked Pertamina to produce a certificate of origin for the fuel to show that the cargo was not sourced from sanctioned producers, which was not made available, Vanda Laura, chief executive of the joint venture, told the parliamentary hearing. Shell said at the hearing that it was in early-stage talks with Pertamina, conducting due diligence. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/why-do-private-gasoline-retailers-indonesia-face-shortages-2025-10-03/

2025-10-03 06:05

LITTLETON, Colorado, Oct 3 (Reuters) - Although overshadowed so far by booming data center demand and the U.S. government's gutting of clean energy policies, California's rapid scaling of solar farms and battery systems may yet emerge as 2025's most significant power story. California's mammoth solar farms have generated more electricity than the state's fossil fuel power plants for a record-long stretch so far in 2025, setting a new marker for energy transition progress in the United States. Sign up here. Topped up by batteries charged by excess solar output in the middle of the day, the swell in California's solar-powered electricity supplies has triggered the state's largest-ever year-over-year drop in fossil fuel-fired power output. Even after years of historic growth, the jumps in California's solar and battery system output are remarkable, and will likely act as blueprints for power roadmaps in other states even as U.S. federal lawmakers scrap support for clean energy. CLEAN PUSH California's electricity supplies from solar farms during January to July jumped by 15% from the same months in 2024 to a record 54,709 gigawatt hours (GWh), Ember data shows. That year-over-year jump of roughly 7,200 GWh of solar electricity supplies was supplemented by a roughly 75% rise in California's battery storage capacity, according to LSEG, and allowed utilities to slash fossil fuel-fired generation by 21%. In terms of the share of California's electricity generation mix, solar farms accounted for a record 39% of total utility-supplied generation during January to July, up from 33% during the same period in 2024. For comparison, the state of Texas, which has the second-largest solar power footprint in the U.S., secured 10.4% of its electricity from solar farms so far this year. As the solar share of California's electricity mix has climbed, the electricity generation share from fossil fuels has steadily fallen and hit new lows of just 26% so far in 2025. That compares to a national average fossil fuel share of 55% so far in 2025, and cements California's position as by far the leading state in terms of clean electricity deployment. CRITICAL MASS California's utilities have rapidly built out capacity of battery storage systems alongside solar power output since 2022, so that the state's abundant solar power can be deployed to maximum effect. In previous years, California's power system was frequently overrun by the massive solar output levels generated during the middle of the day, which was when solar output peaked just as total state power consumption neared its daily lows. Thanks to a nearly threefold rise in battery storage capacity since 2022 to more than 14,000 megawatts (MW), according to data portal Cleanview, California's utilities can now store some of that excess solar output and deploy it when demand peaks. FOSSIL FALLS The growing scale of California's solar plus battery networks is allowing utilities to scale back fossil fuel reliance at an unprecedented pace. Historically, California's use of fossil fuels peaked during the summer when use of power-hungry air conditioners is highest. Thanks to rapidly rising solar and battery capacity, however, California's utilities have been able to make major cuts to fossil fuel deployment even during peak demand periods. In July 2025, total fossil fuel electricity output was just 36,416 GWh, according to Ember. That total marked a 40% plunge from July 2024, and was 36% below the July average from 2019 through 2024. Such a steep drop in fossil generation had a commensurate impact on associated emissions, which in July 2025 were 2.1 million metric tons of CO2 less than in July 2024, and by far the lowest for that month on record. PRICED IN? Following the years-long retooling of California's power system in favour of clean energy over fossil fuels, the state's electricity costs are starting to reflect the hefty impact of solar power within its generation mix. While still sharply above the national average, California's electricity costs have climbed by less than the national average so far this year, posting a 1% rise compared to a 3.3% rise nationally, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Going forward, the price-depressing impact of the hefty share of solar power within California's generation system is expected to act as a drag on overall electricity costs, even as power bills are expected to keep climbing elsewhere. California's high levels of solar radiation and abundant areas of sparsely populated desert also mean the state is better positioned than most to deploy solar farms at massive scale. Even so, several other U.S. states across the South and Southwest can expect similar cuts to fossil fuel reliance if they also rolled out large solar and battery systems. And with supplies of solar and battery systems steadily rising just as system costs steadily decline, state utilities that can pull the trigger on expansions to solar and battery systems can expect quick returns on their investments. At the same time, with benchmark U.S. natural gas prices this year averaging around 37% more than 2024's levels, according to LSEG, states that can cut use of natural gas can expect significant savings in their fossil fuel purchase bills. Few other states can match the scale of California's solar and battery networks, but those that are looking to cut back on fossil fuel dependence and boost output of clean, home-grown power will use the Golden State as a guide. The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters. Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), your essential new source for global financial commentary. ROI delivers thought-provoking, data-driven analysis of everything from swap rates to soybeans. Markets are moving faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X , opens new tab. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/californias-solar-battery-combo-packs-transformational-punch-2025-10-03/

2025-10-03 05:36

Wall Street hits record highs, European stocks post best week since April Israeli shekel gains on news that Hamas will agree to parts of Trump's Gaza plan US shutdown means no jobs report on Friday Gold notches seventh straight weekly gain Yen posts strongest week versus dollar since May NEW YORK/LONDON, Oct 3 (Reuters) - World stocks were on course for a solid weekly gain and more record highs as the seemingly unstoppable rally in tech shares and expectations of lower U.S. interest rates helped to offset uncertainty surrounding the U.S. government shutdown. News late in the day that Palestinian militant group Hamas would agree to some of the terms in U.S. President Donald Trump's plan to end the war in Gaza helped strengthen the Israeli shekel . The group said it would release hostages while seeking further negotiations on more contentious issues such as disarmament, and the shekel rose 0.7% to 3.2912 per dollar, capping a 1.6% gain for the week. Sign up here. Investors have mostly shrugged off the U.S. shutdown, the 15th since 1981, but on Friday it meant traders weren't getting what is probably the single most-watched piece of market-moving economic data: monthly U.S. payrolls figures. Wall Street did not seem bothered, with all three major stock indexes hitting record highs, pushing MSCI's main 47-country index of world shares (.MIWD00000PUS) , opens new tab up 0.3%, while Europe (.STOXX) , opens new tab cruised towards its best week since April. Still, with no resolution in sight for the U.S. shutdown, some analysts predicted that other U.S. economic releases might be delayed later this month. "Given the lack of talk among leadership, the shutdown is more likely than not to extend through the end of next week," TD Securities said in a note to clients. "We expect the release of jobless claims to remain sidelined, with the CPI (consumer inflation) and retail sales reports at risk the following week." The S&P 500 Index (.SPX) , opens new tab finished flat after hitting an all-time high of 6,750.87 points, and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) , opens new tab fell 0.3%, pulling back a touch from a record peak of 22,925.43 points struck in early trade. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) , opens new tab also jumped to a record high of 47,049.64 points, before retreating to finish 0.5% higher. Euro zone services sector PMIs helped the euro to tick up, too, as they accelerated to an eight-month high owing to moderate growth in Germany, Italy and Spain, although France's political turmoil continued to weigh them down. Christopher Hodge, U.S. economist at Natixis, said the lack of payrolls data in some ways bolstered the current view among forecasters that U.S. interest rates will be cut again this month. "The baseline (of a rate cut) is the default in the absence of new information," Hodge said, adding that the markets also had plenty of practice dealing with U.S. shutdowns. "The only thing that could be different this time is that we are in an economic and policy cycle that is a lot more ambiguous." Benchmark government bond yields - the main driver of global borrowing costs - nudged higher in both the U.S. and the euro zone , although they dropped in the UK after poor PMI data there, and all were down for the week. Markets are almost fully pricing in a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut this month and at least four cuts by the end of 2026. GOING FOR GOLD The overnight rise in MSCI's main Asian share index (.MIAP00000PUS) , opens new tab meant it closed with a 2.7% weekly gain and has now risen about 23% this year. China and some other parts of Asia had been closed for a holiday, meaning trading was thinner than usual, although Taiwan hit a record high (.TWII) , opens new tab and Japan's Nikkei (.N225) , opens new tab jumped 1.5% ahead of a crucial weekend vote that will determine that country's next prime minister. Weiheng Chen, global investment strategist at J.P. Morgan Private Bank, said investors appear willing to give Washington time to resolve its disagreements, although a prolonged government shutdown might start to move markets. "For now, investors remain more focused on the potential impacts of the Fed's rate-cutting cycle, trade and immigration policy, economic data, and corporate earnings," Chen said. With no government reports on the labor market to offer cues, investors have turned to alternative data from public and private sources and so far they point to a sluggish U.S. labor market. The Institute for Supply Management, for example, said on Friday its non-manufacturing purchasing managers index fell to 50 last month, the breakeven level, from 52.0 in August, as U.S. services sector activity stalled in September amid a sharp slowdown in new orders. That has left the dollar under pressure. It sagged again on Friday against a basket of other top currencies (.DXY) , opens new tab and was on course for its biggest weekly drop since August. /FRX The Japanese yen has been a major beneficiary of that dip, although it weakened to 147.4 per dollar on Friday after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda left markets guessing on when the central bank will next hike interest rates. In commodities, oil prices recovered slightly on the day but were on course for their steepest weekly drop in more than three months. Brent crude futures were at $64.39 a barrel as U.S. trading gathered pace, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $60.69 a barrel. Gold , meanwhile, rose for a seventh straight week to $3,885.99 an ounce, after hitting a record of $3,896.49 an ounce on Thursday. It is viewed as a safe-haven asset during times of uncertainty and thrives on low interest rates. It has surged 47% this year. "As the U.S. dollar's status as the global reserve currency is tested, gold is emerging as the pre-eminent safe haven, and we continue to view it as the ultimate diversifier," said Greg Hirt, global CIO for multi-asset at AllianzGI. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2025-10-03/

2025-10-03 05:27

NEW DELHI, Oct 3 (Reuters) - India's Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on Friday that the government is committed to increasing state capital spending to support economic growth, stressing that the economy has remained resilient despite global headwinds. "With the steady share of consumption and investment in the overall GDP over the years, India's growth is firmly anchored in its domestic factors, which minimises the impact of external shocks on overall growth," Sitharaman said while speaking at the Economic Conclave, organised by the finance ministry. Sign up here. However, the minister cautioned against complacency, urging "quiet confidence" in making and executing the right decisions. The United States doubled tariffs on Indian goods to as much as 50% from August 27 over New Delhi's continued imports of Russian oil. The levy is among the highest on U.S. trading partners alongside Brazil, and economists say the move could hurt exports including textiles, leather goods and chemicals. As part of the federal budget, India announced plans to spend a record 11.21 trillion rupees ($126.3 billion) on infrastructure for the fiscal year ending March 2026, slightly higher than the previous year. The Indian economy expanded 7.8% year-on-year during the April-June quarter, the fastest in five quarters, from 7.4% in the previous three-month period. It is projected to grow at 6.8% for the fiscal year amid increasing concerns about the impact of U.S. tariffs. The Reserve Bank of India kept its policy rate unchanged at 5.5% on Wednesday, while signalling room to lower rates in December as it assesses the impact of the tariffs and recent consumption tax cuts on the economy. ($1 = 88.7610 Indian rupees) https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-finance-minister-says-govt-committed-increasing-capital-spending-support-2025-10-03/

2025-10-03 05:06

Dollar sees worst week vs yen since May BOJ's Ueda cautious on global economy, lowers rate-hike bets FedWatch Tool shows 84% probability of December rate cut ISM services index falls in September Bitcoin nears all-time peak, hits highest since August NEW YORK, Oct 3 (Reuters) - The dollar retreated on Friday, posting multi-week losses against major currencies, as uncertainty surrounding a U.S. government shutdown clouded the outlook and delayed key data releases, such as payrolls, critical for gauging the economy's direction. The U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for September was due for release on Friday, but was not published due to the government closure. Sign up here. The yen pulled back from this week's highs as traders mulled the Bank of Japan's next move ahead of a ruling party leadership election this weekend. In late afternoon trading, the euro rose 0.2% against the dollar to $1.1743 , headed for its best week in a month. Gains in the euro pushed the dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of key currencies, 0.1% lower at 97.69. The index had its worst weekly showing since July. "If the shutdown lasts for a long time, and I mean by several weeks, yes, then, of course, people will begin to question governability in the U.S., said Thierry Wizman, global FX and rates strategist, at Macquarie in New York. "And anytime that the market starts to worry about governability in that country, it usually is not a good story for the currency." Against the Swiss franc, the dollar fell 0.3% to 0.7951 francs , down 0.4% on the week, its largest weekly fall since mid-August. The dollar also slid against sterling, which rose 0.3% to $1.3479 . The pound posted its biggest weekly gain since August 11. "We're still in a range. I think there's just a lack of directional momentum, and the fact that the government is shut down only adds to the low volatility environment," said Vassili Serebriakov, FX strategist at UBS in New York. The U.S. currency slightly extended its fall against major currencies after data showed U.S. services sector activity stalled in September amid a sharp slowdown in new orders. The Institute for Supply Management said its non-manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 50 last month, the breakeven level between growth and contraction, from 52.0 in August. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the services PMI easing to 51.7. In other FX pairs, the dollar edged higher against the yen, up 0.1% at 147.41 yen, having earlier fallen as much as 0.4%. It rose 1.4% this week, which would be the biggest since mid-May. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda struck a cautious tone in comments about the global economy, lowering expectations of an imminent rate hike. Markets were also focused on a Liberal Democratic Party election on Saturday that will determine Japan's next prime minister. The LDP election has consequences for Japan's budget and central bank policies. Among the front-runners, dovish party veteran Sanae Takaichi could trigger more bond market uncertainty, while farm minister Shinjiro Koizumi and top government spokesperson Yoshimasa Hayashi are less likely to rock the boat. TWO MORE FED RATE CUTS EXPECTED THIS YEAR Traders see a 25 basis-point (bp) cut at the Federal Reserve's October meeting as almost certain. Overall, the rate futures market has priced in about 47 bps of rate declines for the remainder of the year or just under two cuts, according to LSEG calculations. Fed Governor Stephen Miran on Friday again pressed for an aggressive path of rate cuts given big changes in the economy, while saying that the difference between his outlook and that of his central bank colleagues is not as great as some perceive it to be. Miran dissented in favor of a 50-basis-point rate cut at the Fed's policy-setting meeting last month. This week provided more evidence of sluggishness in the labor market, and more ammunition for the Fed to cut rates later this month. The ADP National Employment report on Wednesday showed private payrolls decreased by 32,000 in September. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan on Friday, however, repeated her view that upside inflation risks, a labor market that is largely in balance and policy that is currently only modestly restrictive mean the central bank should not go ahead with further interest-rate cuts. In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin rose for an eighth straight session, hitting its highest level since August 13, when it touched a record high. It was last up 1.2% at $122.164.19. , bolstered by recent gains in U.S. equities and inflows into bitcoin exchange-traded funds. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/yen-trims-weekly-advance-investors-weigh-boj-election-impacts-2025-10-03/